Pre-Combine Running Back Evaluation
Leonard Fournette*, LSU (6’0”, 230#)
A natural, talented, punishing running in the mold of Todd Gurley or Jerome Bettis. Sometimes a man among boys with the hits he delivers to DB’s. Like Gurley, he’s limited to an offense that caters to his gifts and will feed him the ball. A 4-quarter runner and needs to wear down opponents. On a bad team will struggle to find touches when down two scores and is not a threat on 3rd-and-long or in the pass game. Still, these types of old-school backs with this size, feet and running talent are rare. Very curious about timed speed because he does not play like a 4.5 to 4.6 player and can look a bit slow in open field. Round 1
NFL Comparison: Todd Gurley
Christian McCaffrey*, Stanford (6’0”, 200#)
Son of former WR Ed McCaffrey and shows elite athleticism and intuition for the game. Is an ideal 3-down type scat back at the next level and has NFL-level versatility. Can return punts and kicks. Good hand catcher and understands route trees from father. Despite being a bell-cow type back at Stanford (434 & 314 touches the last two seasons - 30/game), I don’t project him into that type of workload at the next level. He’s a little slight, maxed out on frame, and likely can’t hold up to between the tackles NFL pounding week-in, week-out. Does not break tackles at an elite level and there are some concerns with fumbling (hand size?). Plays like a 4.5 player on film with elite change of direction skills. A perfect Bill Belichick type back but New England finds this type of talent late in drafts (see Dion Lewis, James White and Julian Edelman). Will find roll in NFL as part of a spread passing attack to create mismatch problems. Almost a splitting clone to Julian Edelman to me with maybe a bit more versatility to run between the tackles. Very low fail rate. Round 1-2.
NFL Comparison: Julian Edelman
Davin Cook*, Florida St. (5’11”, 215#)
A natural, cradle RB talent that has exceptional balance and footwork in traffic. Has a 2nd gear when needed and doesn’t always run at the same speed. Likes deep eye sets. Soft, hand catcher but limited in route tree and isn’t a big threat in passing game. Could use some work/cleanup his blocking techniques. Reminds me a bit of Marshawn Lynch in college and could similarly add weight on frame and maintain his elite footwork/instincts. Needs to be a bit tougher on contact and fight through more trash. Difficult evaluation but has all you look for in a back with a lot of different paths to success at the next level. Round 2
NFL Comparison: Marshawn Lynch
Joe Mixon*, Oklahoma (6’1”, 225#)
Off-field, Ray Rice type video really clouds round projection. Is a similar, but much better, prospect to someone like Jamaal Williams (similar build). Very tall for a RB on film and can ramp up quickly to elite speed. Expect he’s at least a tenth faster than other big backs in this draft. Has some experience catching the ball (65 catches in his two seasons) but mostly wheel routes and screens. Might develop into elite one-cut/stretch runner like an Adrian Foster or Matt Jones but those types of opportunities are harder to find these days. Probably round 2-3 talent but that video will scare teams away. Could be steal in round 4-5.
NFL Comparison: Arian Foster
Kareem Hunt, Toledo (6’0”, 225#)
Well put together and explosive athlete. Really developed receiving game as bell cow, 3-down back as senior (41 catches vs. 32 the previous three years). Always in mix with carries since true freshmen and had monster sophomore season (1600+ yards). Envious NFL size for position these days and would fit multiple systems. Frustrating to watch because almost always played in pistol/option setup and would like to see how he runs in eye formation or with a FB. Small school issues and questions about level of competition. A bit anxious as a runner and could clean up protection blocking. Combine will matter and needs to run 4.5 to help against small-school label. Temple bowl game was very good test and is likely what he will look like in pros. Round 3
NFL Comparison: Matt Forte
Samaje Perine, Oklahoma (5’10”, 235#)
Came on like a terror as a true freshman with 1700 yards rushing and FBS single-game record of 427 yards vs. Kansas. Huge in the seat/thighs and looks to have exceptional straight line speed. No wiggle but can do a bit of tire drill and explode into secondary if blocking comes together. Is a load to handle and can wear down defenses. Highly scouted and recruited in High School. He’s very limited as an athlete and change of direction might be lacking. Not much to contribute in passing game or special teams. After monster freshman year started to lose carries to Joe Mixon (which might tell you something about versatility and skill set). A very similar scouting analysis to Derrick Henry last year. Will likely wow people with straight line speed and size and people will love his stats, but his film isn’t quite as dynamic as you’d think. Round 3-4
NFL Comparison: Derrick Henry
James Conner*, Pittsburgh (6’2”, 240#)
Explosive, downhill, bruising back when first read is there and he maintains speed through hole. Does not do well when forward motion is stopped or hole doesn’t develop. Not a stop/start type of runner and must maintain North-South lines. Kind of a one-speed runner and feet can stop once forward progress stops. Does not have elite wiggle and takes big hits (but also dishes them out). Shelf life might be minimal. Had lots of carries as true sophomore (2014) and 1700 yard season. Blew out knee in week 1 the following season and was diagnosed with Hodgkin’s disease, which took a whole year to recover 100%. Feel good story and was headed to huge things as a sophomore, but there is risk in this selection. Very similar to LaGarrette Blount. Round 3-4
NFL Comparison: LaGarrette Blount
Wayne Gallman*, Clemson (6’0”, 210#)
An all-or-nothing home-run threat type runner. Lots of no-gain and negative runs on tape. Despite slight build and speed, often ran between tackles at Clemson in their spread formations. Exceptional speed and can bounce outside and get to edge (although that’s harder in the NFL). When he breaks one or catches an open gap, he can explode for big chunks and can buckle DB’s knees with cuts and change-of-direction. Reminds me a bit of a Darren McFadden/Joseph Randall type runner. Round 3-4
NFL Comparison: Darren McFadden
D’Onta Foreman*, Texas (6’1”, 240#)
Very big in lower body and plays with surprising good balance through hole (a tendency to lean a bit too forward but that is preferable). Can bounce off tacklers and breaks arm tackles regularly. Shows nice burst when he sees the hole. Might be too one-dimensional for today’s NFL and I don’t see a lot of benefit from him in passing game (although the size/effort are there in pass protection). Looks to be in the 4.6 range and will might struggle to find a spot on teams that prefer spread concepts. Round 4
NFL Comparison: Rashad Jennings
Alvin Kamara*, Tennessee (5’10”, 215#)
Smaller, part-time RB in Tennessee that should have probably stayed in school (unless he was likely losing reps to someone else). Shows some nice burst when holes are there but doesn’t generate much on own. Reminds me a bit of a poor-mans Devonte Freeman but could easily be a Cameron Artis-Payne, Zac Stacey, Tre Mason type career backup. 40-time will matter and in order to move up draft boards and will have to post a 4.4 or faster type time. Round 4-5
NFL Comparison: Tre Mason
Jeremy McNichols*, Boise St. (5’9”, 215#)
Hard to doubt Boise St. running backs after success of Doug Martin (2012) and Jay Ajayi (2015). McNichols follows their footsteps as extremely productive in Boise State’s spread system and is a complete back with 550 carries and 90 receptions his last two seasons as the primary option back. I am not sure McNichols is quite the natural runner of Doug Martin or the elite, raw athlete that Ajayi was and could be too much like Ian Johnson (way back in 2009) that was a bit overhyped and went undrafted. Difficult to scout but he is NFL ready for a lot of schemes right now and has the size/production to make a roster early in career. Round 4-5
Corey Clement, Wisconsin (5’11”, 227#)
Has idea size and bubble/thighs for position and looks the part but lacks something in hole to really make that 8th defender miss. Frustrating film at times and might struggle to keep his YPA up at the next level. Was not blessed with a good O-line or QB play this season and teams keyed on him. Interested in measurements on him and might benefit from losing 5-8 lbs. Round 4-5 for now, but I might revisit this evaluation and could be all over draft boards.
Brian Hill*, Wyoming (6’1”, 220#)
A well put together athlete and looks the part (especially the growing trend of taller backs). Very productive workhorse the last couple of seasons with 630 carries and 3500 yards. Forward lean and hits hole decisively. Some wiggle but is generally a between the tackle runner and initiates contact. In the mold of an Andre Williams or Jeremy Hill type and might be limited to a dual-back roll. If a team is looking to get a bit more physical in the run game, he could be a mid-round answer. Round 5
Curtis Samuel*, Ohio State (5’11”, 195#)
Roll player at OSU that should have stayed in school. Exceptional athlete that doesn’t have enough film to make accurate assessment of talent. Could blow-up combine with exceptional timed 40 and have a wide range of grades. Not a “cradle” running back and not a lot of wiggle in the hole but his natural athleticism and burst works with good OSU blocking. Often lined up in slot as WR and could see switch to a WR/RB hybrid at next level. Hard evaluation and eye of the beholder type player. Some team might fall in love with his skill set and recruiting status and draft very high. I’m sticking him at round
5 for now.
Donnel Pumphrey, San Diego St. (5’9”, 180#)
Despite very slight frame (and little ability to add weight), was a workhorse at San Diego St. (1100 touches and 7500 yards). Was not just a spread-system back and ran from eye and behind lead blockers often. Lack of return game on resume really hurts his versatility at next level, but he is as slippery and quick in the hole as you’ll see and can break ankles all over the field. Really comes down to his size limitation and whether he can hold up. A poor-man’s Jahvid Best (who was a 1st round pick) that could be an ideal change of pace guy for a dome team. Might be a bit cocky and have attitude issues. Eye of the beholder back that could be very high on someone’s board. Round 5
NFL Comparison: Jahvid Best.
Jamaal Williams, BYU (6’1”, 220#)
Tall, well put together, long-striding tailback with four solid years as starter. Not a 3-down back in college and was taken off field in pass situations and mostly stayed in to block (only 15 catches the last two years at BYU after having 27 as a freshman). Injuries might be a concern and plays a bit upright (takes hits) and as a long strider could have hamstring issues. Not my favorite prospect and looks a bit one-dimensional without any elite traits. Has NFL size however and could develop skills not currently on film to get regular playing time at the next level. Round 5-6
NFL Comparison: James Starks
Da’Veon Smith, Michigan (5’11”, 230#)
A well-coached, 15-18 touch/game starter for Jim Harbaugh the last couple of years. A jack-of-all-trades, master-of-none type prospect with limited “wow” factors on tape. A grind it out player that has legit NFL size and might even benefit from losing a few pounds to gain some quicks. He won’t be drafted high, but there’s enough there to make a roster and provide good depth in a RB group. Round 6
Matthew Dayes, NC State (5’9”, 205#)
A poorer man’s Alvin Kamara. Southern athlete and can flash at times but consistency down-in, down-out is lacking and there might not be enough there to justify a high pick. Round 6
Tarik Cohen, N. Carolina A&T (5’6”, 175#)
Extremely undersized and small on film (but not slight like Dri Archer). Runs in a jitterbug, bouncing style of Barry Sanders or similar (but not nearly as talented). Hides behind lineman and explodes into openings but there are a lot of negative plays on film (see vs. Kent State). Difficult for him to compete as a blocker against LB’s due to size. Shows okay hands but catch radius is small. Fumbles and hand size could be issues. Likely has to find roll as a returner to make roster and not sure teams can devote a #1 or #2 RB-only type spot to this talent. Does have plays that make you go “wow” however. Round 7-FA
Khalfani Muhammad, California (5’9”, 180#)
Similar size issues to Cohen. Is a spread runner in Cal’s system and often shared load with other talents (many of whom have not been drafted or successful at the next level). Is likely not an elite cradle running back and athleticism doesn’t quite translate perfect to football. There’s explosion in his game however and a decent amount of fight in the dog. Is not afraid of hits and gets his nose dirty. Limited in ability to block LB’s. Like Cohen will have to find roll as kick returner and special teams demon to earn spot as his natural RB ability will make it hard to be a #1 or #2 on the depth chart early in career. Round 7-FA
Jahad Thomas, Temple (5’10”, 188#)
Another smaller, scat-back type player in predominantly pistol/option sets. Similar in skill set and outlook to Cohen and Muhammad (although I think they are better athletes overcoming more size disadvantages). Thomas might be a safer option because he has a frame to gain 10 lbs. Not a bad player, but typical. Decent explosion to hole, okay in pass game and can play a variety of spots. Did some kick returning as a freshman and will have to go back to that in the pros. Round 7-FA
Chris Carson, Oklahoma St. (6’1”, 215#)
One-cut, zone blocking scheme runner with limited plus attributes on film. Not sure I see elite burst to make a ZBS team fall in love with him enough to get him lots of reps but he has NFL size for that roll and could find job as a backup or practice squad type player. Round 7-FA
Tarean Folston, Notre Dame (5’10”, 215#)
Very highly scouted 4-star recruit and had solid season (better film) in 2014 as a sophomore but tore ACL in first game of 2015 and hasn’t looked the same since. He’s a round 7 or priority free agent at this point and might even redshirt his first season in the NFL to see if he gains back any explosion he had in 2014. Round 7-FA
Joe Williams, Utah (5’11”, 205#)
One-year wonder whose first touch came as a junior and then full time starter as a true senior. Played predominantly in spread/option setups and Utah’s offense kind of took off this season and he got a lot of opportunities. Not sure I think he’s a draftable prospect unless he shows something elite at the combine to make me revisit tape. Nothing really stood out. Round 7-FA
