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1st round QB supply and demand

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SteelerSask2

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I think concern many of us have about the Steelers duct taping it together is that they will finishing the 8-12 range. Drafting somewhere around that 20 range where it gets even more tricky to find "the guy". So I thought with College football on we could look at demand and then as year goes on see how supply matches. I'll do two divisions
AFC East
Pats: no chance just took a top 5. They will give at least three years.
Bills: no chance. Franchise guy
Miami : possible trade of Tua, but that will just take someone else off the list. Worse scenario career ender and they become buyer. I'd call them low probability.
Jets: very high probability. Can't imagine they have long term answer on their roster.
AFC South
Tenn: no chance just drafted.
Jax: could trade Lawrence. Again takes someone else off market. I'll call them low probability.
Indy: very high probability. Their first rounder riding pine to another first rounder who is a low probability reclaimation project.
Houston: No chance. They got their guy.

So two divisions. Two almost certainly in demand teams that will finish high probability lower then the Steelers.
 
AFC West
Chiefs: no chance
Chargers: would have to be trade open up another spot.
Raiders: High probability. They got a good stop gap they could roll out till a rookie is ready
Broncos: no chance. Got their guy.

AFC North:
Ravens: No chance
Bengals: no chance
Browns: Id say 20% or lower after taking two lower then firsts. Not impossible but not likely.
So for AFC that is two almost certainly. And one high probability.
 
SteelerSask2 said:
I think concern many of us have about the Steelers duct taping it together is that they will finishing the 8-12 range. Drafting somewhere around that 20 range where it gets even more tricky to find "the guy". So I thought with College football on we could look at demand and then as year goes on see how supply matches. I'll do two divisions
AFC East
Pats: no chance just took a top 5. They will give at least three years.
Bills: no chance. Franchise guy
Miami : possible trade of Tua, but that will just take someone else off the list. Worse scenario career ender and they become buyer. I'd call them low probability.
Jets: very high probability. Can't imagine they have long term answer on their roster.
AFC South
Tenn: no chance just drafted.
Jax: could trade Lawrence. Again takes someone else off market. I'll call them low probability.
Indy: very high probability. Their first rounder riding pine to another first rounder who is a low probability reclaimation project.
Houston: No chance. They got their guy.

So two divisions. Two almost certainly in demand teams that will finish high probability lower then the Steelers.
Click to expand...

Sadly Anthony Richardson will likely be out for them next year making them buyer…I only say sadly cuz I fear he is exactly the type of guy with that pedigree Mike will seek as his next duct tape QB solution. I can’t do that AR…

Maybe our AR can just win a SB and decide to come back and win another
 
SteelerSask2 said:
AFC West
Chiefs: no chance
Chargers: would have to be trade open up another spot.
Raiders: High probability. They got a good stop gap they could roll out till a rookie is ready
Broncos: no chance. Got their guy.

AFC North:
Ravens: No chance
Bengals: no chance
Browns: Id say 20% or lower after taking two lower then firsts. Not impossible but not likely.
So for AFC that is two almost certainly. And one high probability.
Click to expand...
The Browns will absolutely run to the podium if a top QB is sitting there.
 
Mel kiper lists 6 to 8 potential first round qbs. A couple probably stay in school...
Then every year a couple preseason studs will crap out and at least one will come out of nowhere to be in the conversation.

Then during the combine another qb or so will leap up there based on athleticism...

We probably end up seeing 5 guys go in the first

My guess is the Steelers are looking at Penn State's guy... i wouldnt trade too far up to get him though....
 
There are a lot of names being thrown out there right now, but most have significant flaws or are being considered solely on physical attributes.

Arch Manning
Manning has a long way to go before being considered the top pick in the draft. I know it was against a tough opponent, but he was not good.

Garrett Nussmeier
Son of an NFL OC, that will go a long way. Pretty good, but not special, traits and production. I think he'll consistently remain a top-3 prospect throughout the entire process.

Drew Allar
Best pure arm talent of the first-round prospects and he's improved each year. Unless the Saints have the top pick or a multi-threat QB blows up this season, Allar will probably be the first QB off the board.

Cade Klubnik
I don't understand the first-round hype. I don't even see him as a day 2 pick. His traits aren't special and he leaves clean pockets far too often. Day 3 at best for me.

Carson Beck
He wasn't as good in 2024 as he was in 2023. He seems to be a bit of a jagoff, so I don't like him, but the tools are there and he has a fresh start in Miami. He has to cut down on his inconsistency.

Sam Leavitt
Maybe the most-likely target for the Steelers. Exciting with his legs and has a playmaking ability with his arm as well. A bit of a gunslinger...so count me in??

LaNorris Sellers
Teams will get enamored with his tools and take him very high. Major concerns with his accuracy.

Nico Iamaleava
A rocky offseason with the entire transfer process. I think he has a long way to go.

Fernando Mendoza
Really good arm and he has the sizes teams desire, but some issues in the pocket. They'll need to coach him up at Indiana to take the big step forward.

Avery Johnson
I think he's stuck in the dreaded round 2-4 spot right now. Nothing more than a low-end starter or backup.

John Mateer
Not a big enough sample size.

Taylen Green
He can fly up draft boards if he puts things together. I just don't think he has enough production to jusify an early pick even if he does blow up this year. Too many seasons of medicore play.

Aidan Chiles
Chiles seems to be a big-time draft favorite if he develops this season. Scouts love his elite traits in just about every area.
 
NFC East
Eagles: no chance
Giants: just drafted no chance.
Kaboys: with their two first rounders Id say has potential. Could trade Dak for more ammo. Id list them like Raiders decent likelihood.
Commanders: might have best young talent. No chance.

NFC West
San Fran: no chance
Seattle: highly unlikely. They spent on Darnold and have Alabama kid.
Rams: Id put them at Raiders or above likelihood. They are high likelihood.
Cardinals: unlikely and would likely trade starter if did.
So far Jets, Indy almost certainly. Rams, Raiders high likelihood, Cowboys, Browns decent likelihood.
 
High Need
Cleveland
Indianapolis
LA Rams - if Stafford retires, if not, drop them down a category
New Orleans
New York Jets
Pittsburgh

Need if in Range
Las Vegas
Seattle

Only if they give up on current QB
Arizona
Carolina
Dallas
Jacksonville
Miami
 
Drink IRON City said:
Steelers will have to trade up a minimum of 10-12 spots.



Salute the nation
Click to expand...
That was a second and a next year's third. To move up from 20 to 10 to get Devin Bush. With them having multiple thirds and it being a Q maybe get it over with next year. That sounds like a realistic scenario. Them 20th where they have been trapped last however many years and needing to get to 10 ish.
 
SteelerFan448 said:
High Need
Cleveland
Indianapolis
LA Rams - if Stafford retires, if not, drop them down a category
New Orleans
New York Jets
Pittsburgh

Need if in Range
Las Vegas
Seattle

Only if they give up on current QB
Arizona
Carolina
Dallas
Jacksonville
Miami
Click to expand...
Thanks for finishing and about how I had it. Seattle might get enough out of Darnold and be in win now. Id send them to third category. I dont have Browns in that category. The only team I have in the high Need category that could draft lower is the Rams. Of course if it's how most of us expect
 
SteelerSask2 said:
Thanks for finishing and about how I had it. Seattle might get enough out of Darnold and be in win now. Id send them to third category. I dont have Browns in that category. The only team I have in the high Need category that could draft lower is the Rams. Of course if it's how most of us expect
Click to expand...
We're definitely on the same page for most of the teams. I just don't see the Browns passing on Nussmeier, Allar, Sellers, etc. in favor of Gabriel or Sanders. Neither of those guys is a Super Bowl caliber QB.
 
SteelerFan448 said:
We're definitely on the same page for most of the teams. I just don't see the Browns passing on Nussmeier, Allar, Sellers, etc. in favor of Gabriel or Sanders. Neither of those guys is a Super Bowl caliber QB.
Click to expand...
Well they could use a shotgun approach and take three. Hope one works out.
 
SteelerFan448 said:
We're definitely on the same page for most of the teams. I just don't see the Browns passing on Nussmeier, Allar, Sellers, etc. in favor of Gabriel or Sanders. Neither of those guys is a Super Bowl caliber QB.
Click to expand...
This is the Browns we are talking about. If any club will do it different and or wrong it is them.

I see them passing for their ineptitude and for the evaluation of their QBs. I know we see their lot as deficient but I am not sure they see it the same way yet.
 
SteelerFan448 said:
High Need
Cleveland- for reasons due to post above this one
Indianapolis- if Jones works out they could blink
LA Rams - if Stafford retires, if not, drop them down a category
New Orleans- definitely will look
New York Jets- if Fields is ok they could do the clown approach to waiting and see
Pittsburgh- lock it in

Need if in Range
Las Vegas- if Geno plays solid it will lower them
Seattle- Darnold lowers them down if not scratches them off a list

Only if they give up on current QB
Arizona- probably not
Carolina- maybe
Dallas- possibly if they Trade Dak
Jacksonville- probably not
Miami- probably not
Click to expand...

For me it is the Saints and Jets that I see being more than likely. Both should lose a **** ton of games. If they hold the top two picks , Steelers might be looking at the third best available option

The Saints could wait and see due to their rookie QB so I wouldn’t lock them in.

I also have seen Sellers type of QBs go high so that could be a teams choice ahead of the Steelers which I wouldn’t lock consider being a great situation for the Steelers if that came about.


So I hope for a Fields solid year outside of game 1 and I hope for the Jets to love Sellers. They liked Fields so that isn’t far off from a possibility being they are similar types of QBs.
 
SteelerFan448 said:
There are a lot of names being thrown out there right now, but most have significant flaws or are being considered solely on physical attributes.

Arch Manning
Manning has a long way to go before being considered the top pick in the draft. I know it was against a tough opponent, but he was not good.

Garrett Nussmeier
Son of an NFL OC, that will go a long way. Pretty good, but not special, traits and production. I think he'll consistently remain a top-3 prospect throughout the entire process.

Drew Allar
Best pure arm talent of the first-round prospects and he's improved each year. Unless the Saints have the top pick or a multi-threat QB blows up this season, Allar will probably be the first QB off the board.

Cade Klubnik
I don't understand the first-round hype. I don't even see him as a day 2 pick. His traits aren't special and he leaves clean pockets far too often. Day 3 at best for me.

Carson Beck
He wasn't as good in 2024 as he was in 2023. He seems to be a bit of a jagoff, so I don't like him, but the tools are there and he has a fresh start in Miami. He has to cut down on his inconsistency.

Sam Leavitt
Maybe the most-likely target for the Steelers. Exciting with his legs and has a playmaking ability with his arm as well. A bit of a gunslinger...so count me in??

LaNorris Sellers
Teams will get enamored with his tools and take him very high. Major concerns with his accuracy.

Nico Iamaleava
A rocky offseason with the entire transfer process. I think he has a long way to go.

Fernando Mendoza
Really good arm and he has the sizes teams desire, but some issues in the pocket. They'll need to coach him up at Indiana to take the big step forward.

Avery Johnson
I think he's stuck in the dreaded round 2-4 spot right now. Nothing more than a low-end starter or backup.

John Mateer
Not a big enough sample size.

Taylen Green
He can fly up draft boards if he puts things together. I just don't think he has enough production to jusify an early pick even if he does blow up this year. Too many seasons of medicore play.

Aidan Chiles
Chiles seems to be a big-time draft favorite if he develops this season. Scouts love his elite traits in just about every area.
Click to expand...

Curious as to why Beck is “a jagoff”

Never seen him display any jagoff traits and watched his whole career

Yeah sometimes he looks like a meth head, but he’s always an “all about the team” “love my teammates” “give them the credit” type of guy

Do you just not like the cut of his jib? I get that or did he actually do something I missed

And definitely not saying he will be some great QB, he’s frequently too inconsistent for my liking.
 
Fiji Mariner said:
Curious as to why Beck is “a jagoff”

Never seen him display any jagoff traits and watched his whole career

Yeah sometimes he looks like a meth head, but he’s always an “all about the team” “love my teammates” “give them the credit” type of guy

Do you just not like the cut of his jib? I get that or did he actually do something I missed

And definitely not saying he will be some great QB, he’s frequently too inconsistent for my liking.
Click to expand...
He just looks like a jag lol. I also will need to see a lot after Drew Allar pouted in the playoffs when his defense didn’t get a stop and promptly threw a pick essentially costing Penn State the game.
 
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