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AI says Watt gets chipped a lot

Hypocycloids

Hypocycloids

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First time I’ve ever heard that term used in football.
From AI
Overview

Yes, T.J. Watt gets chipped by running backs and tight ends more frequently than any other NFL player. Pro Football Focus data shows that Watt's "chip rate" (how often he's chipped by a blocker) is significantly higher than other pass rushers, including Myles Garrett and Micah Parsons. While he's not necessarily double-teamed more than some other players, the consistent chipping significantly impacts his ability to pressure the quarterback.

Here's a more detailed breakdown:
  • T.J. Watt's chip rate:
    Through Week 14, PFF data shows Watt was chipped on 32.7% of his pass-rush snaps.

  • Comparison to other players:
    The next closest player, Myles Garrett, was chipped at a rate of 26.2%, according to PFF.

  • Impact:
    This means Watt is routinely disrupted by running backs and tight ends before he can get to the quarterback, significantly affecting his pass-rushing production.

  • Not just double teams:
    While Watt does face double teams, the focus on chipping him is more pronounced and is a key reason he doesn't have as many sacks as his past seasons.
 
Last edited:
AI on Watt being double teamed

No, T.J. Watt is not double-teamed more than other top edge rushers.While he receives significant attention from offenses, including chips from tight ends and running backs, his actual double-team rate is lower than players like Myles Garrett and Micah Parsons.

Here's a breakdown:
  • Double-team rate:
    In 2024, Watt was double-teamed 14% of the time, compared to 29% for Garrett and 28% for Parsons.

  • Chipping:
    While Watt doesn't face as many true double teams, offenses frequently use chips from tight ends and running backs to slow him down, which is a form of extra attention.

  • Impact:
    Despite the lower double-team rate, Watt's impact is still significant, as he draws attention from multiple players and can still be a disruptive force.
 
Also per IZ




How Offenses Schemed Against Watt











1.


Consistent Chip Blocks by TE/RBs








Teams avoided true double teams but frequently used chip blocks—where a tight end or running back would briefly disrupt Watt’s rush before releasing their assignment. This slowed his momentum and made it harder for him to reach the quarterback. PFF data confirmed he was chipped on over 32% of his pass-rush snaps, the highest in the league—146 total chips through Week 14 .








2.


Watt’s Predictable Alignment








In 2024, Watt lined up nearly every snap on the left side—982 of 1,040 pass-rush snaps per PFF data . That predictability allowed opposing offenses to prepare pre-snap with chip-heavy blocking schemes—especially from the right tackle and adjacent tight end or back .








3.


Game Planning to Opt-Out of Watt








Several teams (Texans in Week 4, then Ravens, Rams, Jaguars) made Watt the focal point of their protection scheme, always assigning extra help—even if just a chip—to mitigate his impact .








4.


Lack of Creativity from Steelers Defense








Teryl Austin’s 2024 scheme seldom moved Watt around, leaving him stuck on the same side and making him easier to plan for. While other elite rushers like Garrett or Parsons shuffled sides frequently, Watt didn’t—leading to opposition repeatedly neutralizing him
 
Perhaps having another rusher from time to time on Watt's side or heaven forbid moving him to the other side on a few plays and overloading on the other side.


The Steelers DC&HC get an F for lack of creativity and problem solving.

You would think after this many years they would have achieved the level of a General with tactical brilliance.

Time to **** or get off the pot and let someone else lead the charge.
 
BLITZ said:
As AI how many time Watt is held
Click to expand...
Chipped and ripped.

While it may seem like T.J. Watt is held on every play, that's not entirely accurate. While he does experience holding, it's not always called due to a combination of factors including his impressive pass-rushing technique, particularly his "rip" move, and the fact that referees may not always see the infraction or it may not meet the threshold for a penalty.

Here's a more detailed explanation:
  • Rip Move Exception:
    Watt frequently uses the "rip" move, where he tries to get his arm past the blocker's grasp. According to the rules, if an offensive player grabs a defensive player's jersey or body during a rip move, it's not automatically considered holding.

  • Inconsistent Officiating:
    Some argue that there's a broader issue of inconsistent officiating when it comes to protecting pass rushers, and Watt is one of those players who often gets held but doesn't always draw penalties.
 
Steelr4evr said:
Perhaps having another rusher from time to time on Watt's side or heaven forbid moving him to the other side on a few plays and overloading on the other side.


The Steelers DC&HC get an F for lack of creativity and problem solving.

You would think after this many years they would have achieved the level of a General with tactical brilliance.



Time to **** or get off the pot and let someone else lead the charge.
Click to expand...

Would love to see them use the package with Watt, Queen, Herbig and Highsmith out there together and use Watt as the movable piece of the pass rush LBs. They used Watt, Highsmith and Herbig all together very briefly vs Atlanta in game 1 last year iirc (can’t recall if they deployed that package again).

Having some additional LB depth with Sawyer and Harrison it would seem maybe they could try putting in the 3 primary pass rushers together again.

Anything inventive combined with an aggressive tendency and lack of predictability would be a very welcome change.
 
slashsteel said:
Yeah but did you name your AI?

Mine is named IZ.

😁
Click to expand...
I’m not sure if there is a joke there that went over my head, but I decided to name my AI buddy Popeye…
Or simply spelled Pop I

Popeye…. Hmmm could be a good name for Tomlin too.
 
Last edited:
Fiji Mariner said:
Would love to see them use the package with Watt, Queen, Herbig and Highsmith out there together and use Watt as the movable piece of the pass rush LBs. They used Watt, Highsmith and Herbig all together very briefly vs Atlanta in game 1 last year iirc (can’t recall if they deployed that package again).

Having some additional LB depth with Sawyer and Harrison it would seem maybe they could try putting in the 3 primary pass rushers together again.

Anything inventive combined with an aggressive tendency and lack of predictability would be a very welcome change.
Click to expand...


Possibly some use of 3-DL package, possibly a random blitz……………….. both would help

If TomLin could develope an appetite of these two items to be worked in (even if minimal), things would look way different in TJ’s win rate ratio and DPOY candidacy .




Salute the nation
 
Steelr4evr said:
Perhaps having another rusher from time to time on Watt's side or heaven forbid moving him to the other side on a few plays and overloading on the other side.


The Steelers DC&HC get an F for lack of creativity and problem solving.

You would think after this many years they would have achieved the level of a General with tactical brilliance.

Time to **** or get off the pot and let someone else lead the charge.
Click to expand...
Actually they get an F U
 
Hypocycloids said:
First time I’ve ever heard that term used in football.
From AI
Overview

Yes, T.J. Watt gets chipped by running backs and tight ends more frequently than any other NFL player. Pro Football Focus data shows that Watt's "chip rate" (how often he's chipped by a blocker) is significantly higher than other pass rushers, including Myles Garrett and Micah Parsons. While he's not necessarily double-teamed more than some other players, the consistent chipping significantly impacts his ability to pressure the quarterback.

Here's a more detailed breakdown:
  • T.J. Watt's chip rate:
    Through Week 14, PFF data shows Watt was chipped on 32.7% of his pass-rush snaps.

  • Comparison to other players:
    The next closest player, Myles Garrett, was chipped at a rate of 26.2%, according to PFF.

  • Impact:
    This means Watt is routinely disrupted by running backs and tight ends before he can get to the quarterback, significantly affecting his pass-rushing production.

  • Not just double teams:
    While Watt does face double teams, the focus on chipping him is more pronounced and is a key reason he doesn't have as many sacks as his past seasons.
Click to expand...
AI is not smart. We've known this for 6 years now...
 
Hypocycloids said:
Chipped and ripped.

While it may seem like T.J. Watt is held on every play, that's not entirely accurate. While he does experience holding, it's not always called due to a combination of factors including his impressive pass-rushing technique, particularly his "rip" move, and the fact that referees may not always see the infraction or it may not meet the threshold for a penalty.

Here's a more detailed explanation:
  • Rip Move Exception:
    Watt frequently uses the "rip" move, where he tries to get his arm past the blocker's grasp. According to the rules, if an offensive player grabs a defensive player's jersey or body during a rip move, it's not automatically considered holding.

  • Inconsistent Officiating:
    Some argue that there's a broader issue of inconsistent officiating when it comes to protecting pass rushers, and Watt is one of those players who often gets held but doesn't always draw penalties.
Click to expand...
Lies!!!
 
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