Black Dems aren’t turning out for Hillary like they did for Obama

[Spike]

Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton has to worry about a steep drop-off of the black vote that could imperil her chances of winning the White House in November, an analysis had found.

The number of African-Americans who voted in Tuesday’s primaries plummeted by an estimated 40 percent in Ohio, 38 percent in Florida and 34 percent in North Carolina compared with the 2008 Democratic primary when Barack Obama was on the ballot, reported the advocacy group Black Votes Matter.

The decline provides an opening for likely GOP presidential nominee Donald Trump to win the presidency

“It will be very hard for the Hillary campaign alone to have a message that excites Reagan Democrats and the 4 million new black Barack Obama voters to come out and vote. That is why Donald Trump poses a real challenge,” he said.

“And if that is not corrected, a number of states like Ohio, Florida and Virginia can turn to Republican-leaning states . . . Trump could become president.”

http://nypost.com/2016/03/18/black-dems-arent-turning-out-for-hillary-like-they-did-for-obama/

------------------------------------------


Wait till Trump starts digging around in her closet

 

[Spike]

C'mon over Bernie fans - the Dems don't want you!


New York

In the Democratic primary, Clinton is ahead of Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders by 48 points, taking 71% of the vote to Sanders’s 23%.

#NewYork poll: Clinton leads Sanders w/ both African American (72% to 22%) and Hispanic voters (85% to 8%

 

[Spike]

POW!


The Cult of Hillary, the Ultimate Junk Bond

Why do so many black Americans support Hillary Clinton?

Stockholm Syndrome.

They are faithful battered wives. They are yoked to Hillary by co-dependency: “I’ve stuck by you and suffered to do so for so long that you owe me, and I have faith that you will reward me later if I help you reach your goal now.”

In their minds they have no such guarantee from Bernie Sanders (and of course from Hillary such a guarantee is an illusion). It is clear that Bernie Sanders has been successful without being dependent on them up to now. So (again, in their minds) he owes them nothing, and thus cannot be counted on to reward them after the election for their support during it.

http://www.counterpunch.org/2016/02/29/the-cult-of-hillary-the-ultimate-junk-bond/

 

[Steel Vanguard]

This wishful thinking about Trump is going to lead to a massive letdown in Nov.

Trump can't beat Hillary. I said this before: it's not about ideology. It's about numbers. Trump has abandoned too many demographics to win, AND he's a pariah within his own party.

There is no "opening for Trump" in the general election. He cannot turn out the Republican base. He will get killed by Hillary with Blacks Hispanics and women. And no, there is absolutely NO CHANCE of a Hillary indictment to save him. The more you get your hopes up about Trump, the harder you're gonna fall when he loses.

Hillary Clinton will be the next President of the United States.

 

[Spike]

Hillary Clinton will be the next President of the United States.

More wishful thinking, we've heard it before


November 23, 2015

Trump will never get more than 25-30% - and those polled won't mean they will go vote!

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/dear-media-stop-freaking-out-about-donald-trumps-polls/

-----------------------

today

Donald Trump Hits 65 Percent in New York!

 

[deljzc]

This wishful thinking about Trump is going to lead to a massive letdown in Nov.

Trump can't beat Hillary. I said this before: it's not about ideology. It's about numbers. Trump has abandoned too many demographics to win, AND he's a pariah within his own party.

There is no "opening for Trump" in the general election. He cannot turn out the Republican base. He will get killed by Hillary with Blacks Hispanics and women. And no, there is absolutely NO CHANCE of a Hillary indictment to save him. The more you get your hopes up about Trump, the harder you're gonna fall when he loses.

Hillary Clinton will be the next President of the United States.

You are listening to polls and not potential votes.

I agree it's about numbers.

There are 215 million people eligible to vote in this country and 150 million registered voters. It takes anywhere from 60 million to 65 million votes to win a presidential election (depending on turnout and where).

That is only 30% of eligible voters and 43% of registered voters for Trump to "turn out" and win.

We know what Clinton is going to get. She's not "turning out" anyone. She's going to get 60-65 million votes. Period. No more, no less.

This whole race in November will see if Trump can tap into all those other 150 million people that can vote and who might have never voted before. You have to admit he is as unique a candidate as we've ever had. That alone might push people to vote that haven't voted in decades.

Not saying it's going to happen. But the math is there for him to do something pretty different.

 

[madinsomniac]

People have to remember that polls are often just a couple hundred voices ... And they can be redundant and biased...

 

[Steel Vanguard]

You are listening to polls and not potential votes.

I agree it's about numbers.

There are 215 million people eligible to vote in this country and 150 million registered voters. It takes anywhere from 60 million to 65 million votes to win a presidential election (depending on turnout and where).

That is only 30% of eligible voters and 43% of registered voters for Trump to "turn out" and win.

We know what Clinton is going to get. She's not "turning out" anyone. She's going to get 60-65 million votes. Period. No more, no less.

This whole race in November will see if Trump can tap into all those other 150 million people that can vote and who might have never voted before. You have to admit he is as unique a candidate as we've ever had. That alone might push people to vote that haven't voted in decades.

Not saying it's going to happen. But the math is there for him to do something pretty different.

Getting the non-voters to vote would help. But he still has the same problem: Blacks, Hispanics and women make up MOST OF THOSE VOTERS.

He's so busy being a hater in order to gain the working class white male vote that he's alienated people HE NEEDS to win. So once again you're stuck with a guy who's own party is trying to shoot him down, and who may bring in some independents/non-active votes, but who ultimately has soured most of the country toward him. His negative rating is polling above 60% overall.

His following is loud. But they are very much a minority of American voters. Had he strongly courted either Hispanics OR women, I feel he could have beaten Hillary. But he decided to play the race card, and it's going to cost him the Presidency.

 

[deljzc]

He will get more Hispanic votes than either Romney or McCain. I will bet you on that. The idea he has "isolated" or "pushed away" Hispanic votes is nonsense.

Hispanics that came to this country legally HATE illegal immigrants. Illegals are ruining everything for them and their niche in the market place. You get rid of illegals and the #1 group that benefits the most is legal immigrants. There is no denying that fact.

Woman will be a tough get, but I'm not sure they are so motivated to vote this time around. I think Hillary really turns a lot of women off. We will see what happens.

And we're not talking about a crazy 50% margin. He needs 40% of registered voters to vote for him and he needs to turn out 5 million more votes from people that aren't registered.

That's doable.

 

[Steel Vanguard]

He will get more Hispanic votes than either Romney or McCain. I will bet you on that. The idea he has "isolated" or "pushed away" Hispanic votes is nonsense.

Maybe 10% of the Hispanic population votes Republican. So if he gets half of that, it's 5%.

And he's not running against Romney or McCain in the general. He's running against Hillary. Only time will tell if he'll beat Romney and McCain's numbers. Hillary will get 60% of the Hispanic vote, maybe more because of his comments about building walls because Hispanics are rapists. So yes, he's pushed Hispanics away.

Hispanics that came to this country legally HATE illegal immigrants. Illegals are ruining everything for them and their niche in the market place. You get rid of illegals and the #1 group that benefits the most is legal immigrants. There is no denying that fact.

I deny it. So there. The wall will never happen. It's an impossible clusterfuck. He may up deportations, but all that will do is drive up labor costs for small businesses and agriculture. Get ready for 5 dollar a pound lettuce. And that hurts everybody.

Woman will be a tough get, but I'm not sure they are so motivated to vote this time around. I think Hillary really turns a lot of women off. We will see what happens.

And we're not talking about a crazy 50% margin. He needs 40% of registered voters to vote for him and he needs to turn out 5 million more votes from people that aren't registered.

That's doable.

Women want a woman president. They'd prefer Elizabeth Warren, but they'll settle for Hildagard. They will come out in droves to make it happen. Young women don't like her, but most of them don't vote anyway.

I know you want to see a change. I get that. But Trump just has too much baggage to win a general election. Polarizing figures don't become President. I know you hate to hear this, but Obama is broadly popular in America. There are lots of angry Obama haters, but the polls that ask if Obama is likeable, if he's a good person, he comes out pretty good. It's his policy rating that's unfavorable. He's not as polarizing as Fox and the haters would have you believe. The people that hate him, REALLY hate him, but most Americans kind of like the guy.

Trump doesn't have that kind of broad based popularity. His personality negatives are very high, and a lot of it has to do with the childish way he talks. Like the spoiled rich kid he was, born with a silver spoon up his ***, he's supremely entitled at all times. He's never experienced hardship in his life, due in large part to the fact that he's a draft dodger. People see that, and it turns them off. Throw in his mean spirited comments about Blacks, Hispanics, and women, and you've got a large coalition of Americans who will happily vote against him more than they're voting for Hillary. I never thought someone LESS likeable than Hillary would show up on the national scene. But Trump is that person.

 

[deljzc]

You and your Trump fear mongers have been predicting the "wall" Trump runs into every step in this election process. Always another poll or impossibility for him to get the votes he needs to succeed.

He's ****** up every one of those predictions so far and I don't see any proof or evidence the prognosticators are getting any smarter.

I think November is going to be VERY close. Down to the wire.

And if I was a liberal or just plain anti-Trump voter, I would be very, very worried about Ohio and Florida. I think those are two states Trump could end up doing better than the last two Republican nominees.

 

[madinsomniac]

Maybe 10% of the Hispanic population votes Republican. So if he gets half of that, it's 5%.

And he's not running against Romney or McCain in the general. He's running against Hillary. Only time will tell if he'll beat Romney and McCain's numbers. Hillary will get 60% of the Hispanic vote, maybe more because of his comments about building walls because Hispanics are rapists. So yes, he's pushed Hispanics away.



I deny it. So there. The wall will never happen. It's an impossible clusterfuck. He may up deportations, but all that will do is drive up labor costs for small businesses and agriculture. Get ready for 5 dollar a pound lettuce. And that hurts everybody.



Women want a woman president. They'd prefer Elizabeth Warren, but they'll settle for Hildagard. They will come out in droves to make it happen. Young women don't like her, but most of them don't vote anyway.

I know you want to see a change. I get that. But Trump just has too much baggage to win a general election. Polarizing figures don't become President. I know you hate to hear this, but Obama is broadly popular in America. There are lots of angry Obama haters, but the polls that ask if Obama is likeable, if he's a good person, he comes out pretty good. It's his policy rating that's unfavorable. He's not as polarizing as Fox and the haters would have you believe. The people that hate him, REALLY hate him, but most Americans kind of like the guy.

Trump doesn't have that kind of broad based popularity. His personality negatives are very high, and a lot of it has to do with the childish way he talks. Like the spoiled rich kid he was, born with a silver spoon up his ***, he's supremely entitled at all times. He's never experienced hardship in his life, due in large part to the fact that he's a draft dodger. People see that, and it turns them off. Throw in his mean spirited comments about Blacks, Hispanics, and women, and you've got a large coalition of Americans who will happily vote against him more than they're voting for Hillary. I never thought someone LESS likeable than Hillary would show up on the national scene. But Trump is that person.

Ill make a wager on that.... And i aint voting for either.... Hillary has a ton of terrible racist and mean spirited quotes and actions on record... Most policians would never call her on them, trump will.....

She will have to explain how isis came to power with her in state.... She will have to defend her wall street chummyness.. And the old insider trading charges... And whitewater.. And the other ties to corporate welfare she has supported... She will have to fight her absurd handling of classified documents and her 80% untrustworthy rating... Then of course trump is going to accuse her of cronyism and then explain what he got her to vote for by donating to her in the past... Her penchant for doling out favors is going to make her look like she can be bought... And thats not going to fly this election....

Once more Trump isnt as hated as the media is playing it out to be... He is un pc to back so many people are not outwardly supporting him....which is why his numbers arent matching his results,.

And dont be fooled... If he is the mominee he will get 95% of the republican vote just like obama got the majority of the democrat votes when it came down to it... Even the racist ones....

 

[Ron Burgundy]

Maybe 10% of the Hispanic population votes Republican. So if he gets half of that, it's 5%.

It's more like 40%. This is why both parties bend over backwards for the Hispanic voters, because their vote is in play. Neither party cares about the blacks because they will vote Democrat no matter what.

 

[madinsomniac]

Yeah the hispanic vote is odd... Stereotypically super conservative in general life but lean liberal in certain areas...

 

[deljzc]

Steel Vanguard... your idea only 10% of hispanics vote Republican just shows how uneducated and "assuming the facts" you are.

A Republican presidential candidate has never drawn lower than 25% of the Hispanic vote except once: Bob Dole in 1996 (21%).

G. W. Bush pulled 40% of the Hispanic Vote vs. Kerry in 2004.

Hispanics have 25 million eligible voters in 2016 of which 55% normally vote (and I think 60% will vote this year). That is 15 million votes.

When I said Trump will get more Hispanic votes than McCain (31% of hispanic votes) and Romney (27%), I wasn't kidding. I'm not talking about running AGAINST them, I'm talking about numbers.

Trump needs a TARGET of 35% of hispanic votes. If he gets that he can win in November. Based on his winning the hispanic vote against two latinos in Cruz and Rubio, that tells me he's capable of getting that.

Again, all we're talking is math. Just look at 2012 and adjust the math.

Blacks will not exceed whites in % voter turnout (like they did 2012 because of Obama).
Blacks will not vote 95% and 93% for democrats like they did in 2008 and 2012 for Obama. The more realistic outcome (in white vs. white races) is 87-89%.

If you combine a change in black voting AND a change in hispanic voting (to 35% for Trump), you really start to close the gap of 5 million votes between Obama and Romney in 2012.

I totally agree with you, the demographic to worry about is white, women voters. That has to be Trump's focus between now and November. And I think you'll see political ads both directions targeting that group come this fall.

 

[MT~Forged]

Yeah the hispanic vote is odd... Stereotypically super conservative in general life but lean liberal in certain areas...

That my friend is WAY MORE Libertarian than Republican.

 

[Steel Vanguard]

Steel Vanguard... your idea only 10% of hispanics vote Republican just shows how uneducated and "assuming the facts" you are.

A Republican presidential candidate has never drawn lower than 25% of the Hispanic vote except once: Bob Dole in 1996 (21%).

G. W. Bush pulled 40% of the Hispanic Vote vs. Kerry in 2004.

Hispanics have 25 million eligible voters in 2016 of which 55% normally vote (and I think 60% will vote this year). That is 15 million votes.

When I said Trump will get more Hispanic votes than McCain (31% of hispanic votes) and Romney (27%), I wasn't kidding. I'm not talking about running AGAINST them, I'm talking about numbers.

Trump needs a TARGET of 35% of hispanic votes. If he gets that he can win in November. Based on his winning the hispanic vote against two latinos in Cruz and Rubio, that tells me he's capable of getting that.

Again, all we're talking is math. Just look at 2012 and adjust the math.

Blacks will not exceed whites in % voter turnout (like they did 2012 because of Obama).
Blacks will not vote 95% and 93% for democrats like they did in 2008 and 2012 for Obama. The more realistic outcome (in white vs. white races) is 87-89%.

If you combine a change in black voting AND a change in hispanic voting (to 35% for Trump), you really start to close the gap of 5 million votes between Obama and Romney in 2012.

I totally agree with you, the demographic to worry about is white, women voters. That has to be Trump's focus between now and November. And I think you'll see political ads both directions targeting that group come this fall.

I concede the point that I underestimated the Hispanic vote at 10% Republican.

Having said that, if "Build a wall to keep out Mexican Rapists" Donald Trump actually scores 35% of the Hispanic vote in the general, I will make a video of me eating my shoe and post it on this board. That is a pipe dream and will NEVER happen. Feel free to copy this quote and paste it on election night.

As for white women: zero chance. Obama won white women handily and did so for 3 reasons:

1) The whole MLK first (insert demographic) POTUS fervor

2) Vagina tingles (also worked for JFK and Bill)

3) Obama's pandering to feminists.

Hillary has 1 and 3 going for her. Trump has none. In fact, I'm hard pressed to find an issue that would sway women. Most lean left, and most are very sympathetic to the plight of immigrants (children in particular). I can't see a message he could craft to sway them, and outside of conservative circles the whole "Mexicans gonna rape you!" shtick isn't going to cut it.

 

[deljzc]

That whole post is so condescending to women, it's almost unbelievable. Jesus, how drunk are you tonight?

 

[deljzc]

I also think you stepped in it on 35% hispanic voters for Trump. You wait until he attacks Clinton on immigration issues.

I will wait for the video.....

 

[Ron Burgundy]

I also think you stepped in it on 35% hispanic voters for Trump. You wait until he attacks Clinton on immigration issues.

I will wait for the video.....

Trump is gonna be huge with Hispanic voters, HUGE! There's gonna be so many Hispanics you're gonna get sick of seeing Hispanics. Some of his best friends are Hispanics.

 

[Spike]

ha ha

Math: Donald Trump has 90-percent chance of winning GOP nomination


Donald Trump won by losing Ohio.

That's what Princeton neuroscientist Sam Wang told a crowd Wednesday at Northern Kentucky University.

Wang has garnered a reputation since 2004 for predicting presidential elections based on math, including coming within one electoral vote of the exact 2008 presidential election results.

Based on his numbers, Trump is better off because Ohio Gov. John Kasich won Ohio's Republican presidential primary Tuesday. That's because Trump fares better in a three-way race than head-to-head, Wang said.

"If you are in the audience and are an Ohio voter who voted in the Republican primary and voted for Kasich, indirectly, you voted to support Donald Trump," Wang said. "How does it feel?"

Wang put Trump's odds of getting the GOP nomination at 90%.

http://www.cincinnati.com/story/new...ump-won-losing-ohio-expert-says-nku/81864778/