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Cowherd

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KentuckySteeler

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Not a big Cowherd fan, but found this stat pretty telling.

They said that 75% of receivers taken in the first round don't pan out. I know we aren't taking one in the 1st round, but that's a heck of a stat.
 
KentuckySteeler said:
Not a big Cowherd fan, but found this stat pretty telling.

They said that 75% of receivers taken in the first round don't pan out. I know we aren't taking one in the 1st round, but that's a heck of a stat.
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You know for sure? It wouldn’t shock me if they took one in 1. I just think it will be T or C but I wouldn’t rule it out as a possibility.
 
How did they come up with that stat?

I understand some busts because teams are taking physically gifted WRs. A lot of one- or two-trick ponies go here thinking they can develop with elite size and speed. Meanwhile, there are smaller receivers or bigger, slower receivers who are well-rounded going later who are more of a sure thing. With Pickens route running still a bit of a liability, I want the Steelers to get a smooth route runner to pair with him. It's one of the reasons I'm a bit leery of of Brian Thomas at 1.20.
 
SteelerFan448 said:
How did they come up with that stat?

I understand some busts because teams are taking physically gifted WRs. A lot of one- or two-trick ponies go here thinking they can develop with elite size and speed. Meanwhile, there are smaller receivers or bigger, slower receivers who are well-rounded going later who are more of a sure thing. With Pickens route running still a bit of a liability, I want the Steelers to get a smooth route runner to pair with him. It's one of the reasons I'm a bit leery of of Brian Thomas at 1.20.
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I caught the tail end of it but the guy they were interviewing said that 3 out of 4 first round receivers drafted went bust and he was not talking generally.
 
KentuckySteeler said:
Not a big Cowherd fan, but found this stat pretty telling.

They said that 75% of receivers taken in the first round don't pan out. I know we aren't taking one in the 1st round, but that's a heck of a stat.
Click to expand...
75% of all players in the 1st round don't pan out.....so there is that.🤪
 
KentuckySteeler said:
I caught the tail end of it but the guy they were interviewing said that 3 out of 4 first round receivers drafted went bust and he was not talking generally.
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So I don't think this is exactly a good stat. There are good players who don't get second contracts.

 
SteelerFan448 said:
So I don't think this is exactly a good stat. There are good players who don't get second contracts.

Click to expand...

terrible stat when you look at the X text...
ESPN content producer
@PaulHembo
calculated the percentage of 1st-round picks that “hit” or “miss,” based upon whether that player signed a second contract with the team that drafted them.
Click to expand...

so a player taken in the first round who leaves for another team via FA for his second contract isn't a good player? This is just a bullshit way of trying make a point...other than the point of click bait.
 
Team needs blockers and weapons. Doesn't matter how long you block if target isn't open. Likewise, if you have two seconds to throw no one can get open.
There is some definite skew in the chart above. A Center is cheap. So unless he is a complete debacle you resign
Likewise Running backs get used up. I'd say receivers often get caught on an in between. Like let's say Tee Higgins Doesn't sign second contract with Bengals. He is definitely not a bust.
 
SteelerSask2 said:
There is some definite skew in the chart above. A Center is cheap. So unless he is a complete debacle you resign
Likewise Running backs get used up. I'd say receivers often get caught on an in between. Like let's say Tee Higgins Doesn't sign second contract with Bengals. He is definitely not a bust.
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The cost factor is huge. Some teams don't want to pay a premium and allow guys to walk. Just looking very quickly at the 2018 draft, was Baker Mayfield, Roquan Smith, Minkah Fitzpatrick, etc. busts?
 
KentuckySteeler said:
Yeah but your're both terrible posters so I'll take it with a grain of salt. Yawn. Bot of you to the trash bin >>>>>> MUTED.
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Finally !!!!


Salute the nation
 
SteelerFan448 said:
The cost factor is huge. Some teams don't want to pay a premium and allow guys to walk. Just looking very quickly at the 2018 draft, was Baker Mayfield, Roquan Smith, Minkah Fitzpatrick, etc. busts?
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Stats are so easy to manipulate. If you want a receiver you will re-sign. Take McConkey. Not saying he will be a generational player by any means. But unless injured you will be re-signing.
 
you hear lots of stats like this around this time. Probably half of the 1st rounders will end up being busts or at least very disappointing. People throw those stats out to imply that you can just wait and get a great guy later. Sure, that can happen, but the part they leave out is that the half of 1st rounders that are not busts, do tend to become stars at their positions.

So, yes, plenty of 1st rounders will be busts, but the 1st round is still the place where most impact players are taken.

This is why it's so important to go for best player in rd 1 and not get blinded by need. Of course, many time value and need to match up. When you get in trouble is by drafting a need player who is maybe a Rd 2 talent ahead of a true 1st round talent.
 
tapeANaspirin2it said:
you hear lots of stats like this around this time. Probably half of the 1st rounders will end up being busts or at least very disappointing. People throw those stats out to imply that you can just wait and get a great guy later. Sure, that can happen, but the part they leave out is that the half of 1st rounders that are not busts, do tend to become stars at their positions.

So, yes, plenty of 1st rounders will be busts, but the 1st round is still the place where most impact players are taken.

This is why it's so important to go for best player in rd 1 and not get blinded by need. Of course, many time value and need to match up. When you get in trouble is by drafting a need player who is maybe a Rd 2 talent ahead of a true 1st round talent.
Click to expand...
Exactly. Best player may come out of third or even later. But you have to evaluate these guys some way. Not a science. But I will take my chances with being able to pick a 1.
 
Cowherd = entertainment purposes only, same as the current NFL


Salute the nation
 
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