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Pro Football Focus broke the news in the early hours of Saturday morning that the Green Bay Packers have trade deals in place for Aaron Rodgers with three AFC Teams: Denver, Pittsburgh, Tennessee, otherwise he is staying in Green Bay. I know a lot of Steeler Nation is skeptical when we hear a report like this, but I chose to use math and show this deal doesn’t even exist.
For the Pittsburgh Steelers, they do have the cap room this season with many options of restructuring to create even more cap space, if they choose to go that route. It would require giving up a ton of draft capital when they need to fill holes on the offensive and defensive lines, as well as outside corner, strong safety, and multiple wide receivers. They also have the lowest rated offensive line of the bunch, so I don’t think a QB as old as Ben Roethlisberger was last year, would enjoy playing behind that line. This doesn’t completely remove the Steelers for being a viable landing option for Rodgers, but as Mike Tomlin has been quoted in the past, “ Never say neve…but never.”
The glaring elephant in the room out of these three AFC teams is Tennessee. I’ve been researching current quarterback contracts as of late, and Ryan Tannehill is locked to the Tennessee Titans this season. Tannehill has a cap hit of $38.6M this season, which is very high. The knee jerk glance at that cap hit is to cut the player and move on with the cap savings. Not so fast my budding capologists! Tannehill’s contract is fully guaranteed this season, and if he’s cut, the dead cap for the Titans balloons to $57M. It would cost more money to cut Tannehill than it would to keep him. Also take into account that Tennessee is currently projected as being $9M over the projected cap, and this creates a situation that is nearly mathematically impossible to add Aaron Rodgers and his expected contract value of about $27.5M.
So if part of this trade rumor is wrong, all if it can’t be believed. So why would a source leak false information? Two reasons: 1) it was Aaron Rodger’s agent trying to get him a new contract, or 2) The Packers are trying to create a false bidding war with the only viable trade option, the Denver Broncos. I believe it is the latter.
Denver currently has Drew Lock on their roster as their only quarterback, and the team has moved on from thinking he can become their next starting quarterback. They also have an enormous amount of cap room at $39M. The Broncos have also reported that they are willing to give up multiple draft picks to land Rodgers. It seems to me that the Packers are trying to get as much as they can from Denver while using the start of free agency date (March 16th) to force a ‘fear of missing out’ scenario when Denver is probably the only team with an actual trade in place.
I understand the tactics, and it is smart for the Green Bay Packers to try to get as much as they can for the reigning 2x NFL MVP, but anyone with an understanding of simple math can see this report simply doesn’t make cents…
#SteelerNation
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For the Pittsburgh Steelers, they do have the cap room this season with many options of restructuring to create even more cap space, if they choose to go that route. It would require giving up a ton of draft capital when they need to fill holes on the offensive and defensive lines, as well as outside corner, strong safety, and multiple wide receivers. They also have the lowest rated offensive line of the bunch, so I don’t think a QB as old as Ben Roethlisberger was last year, would enjoy playing behind that line. This doesn’t completely remove the Steelers for being a viable landing option for Rodgers, but as Mike Tomlin has been quoted in the past, “ Never say neve…but never.”
The glaring elephant in the room out of these three AFC teams is Tennessee. I’ve been researching current quarterback contracts as of late, and Ryan Tannehill is locked to the Tennessee Titans this season. Tannehill has a cap hit of $38.6M this season, which is very high. The knee jerk glance at that cap hit is to cut the player and move on with the cap savings. Not so fast my budding capologists! Tannehill’s contract is fully guaranteed this season, and if he’s cut, the dead cap for the Titans balloons to $57M. It would cost more money to cut Tannehill than it would to keep him. Also take into account that Tennessee is currently projected as being $9M over the projected cap, and this creates a situation that is nearly mathematically impossible to add Aaron Rodgers and his expected contract value of about $27.5M.
So if part of this trade rumor is wrong, all if it can’t be believed. So why would a source leak false information? Two reasons: 1) it was Aaron Rodger’s agent trying to get him a new contract, or 2) The Packers are trying to create a false bidding war with the only viable trade option, the Denver Broncos. I believe it is the latter.
Denver currently has Drew Lock on their roster as their only quarterback, and the team has moved on from thinking he can become their next starting quarterback. They also have an enormous amount of cap room at $39M. The Broncos have also reported that they are willing to give up multiple draft picks to land Rodgers. It seems to me that the Packers are trying to get as much as they can from Denver while using the start of free agency date (March 16th) to force a ‘fear of missing out’ scenario when Denver is probably the only team with an actual trade in place.
I understand the tactics, and it is smart for the Green Bay Packers to try to get as much as they can for the reigning 2x NFL MVP, but anyone with an understanding of simple math can see this report simply doesn’t make cents…
#SteelerNation
Support SteelerNation by clicking here to read the story..
