ESPN Predicts the Steelers Will Give Diontae Johnson a Massive 4 Year Contract

[Steeler Nation]

The Pittsburgh Steelers are going to be coming to a crossroads with receiver Diontae Johnson at some point in the late summer months. Once training camp rolls around the Steelers will be trying to lock up two of their core players as they will be getting closer to their self-appointed hard deadline of week 1. The day before the Steelers kick off to open the season has been the Steelers long standing self-imposed deadline for signing any players to extensions.

This dates back to the beginning of free agency in the NFL when several Steelers players were upset that the team had signed another player to a new contract during the beginning stages of the season. From there Dan Rooney decided to never put themselves in that situation again. And they haven’t budged for anyone.

With that said, the Steelers will need to pony up some big bucks if they’d like to get Minkah Fitzpatrick, and Diontae Johnson signed to new contracts before the start of the season. Last season TJ Watt nearly missed the Steelers opener, because the team went down to the wire with signing him. Watt of course was doing a passive hold out, and not competing in team drills prior to his new deal.

Now Fitzpatrick is surely the #1 priority for the Steelers and should get done for sure. But a new deal for Johnson might not be a sure thing. While he has had some drop issues in the past, he was much more sure handed in 2021. Some drops late in the season have continued to be brought up though by a lot of fans. Regardless the Steelers are going to be running out of receivers soon, or at least good ones, if they don’t ink Johnson to a new deal. Sure they could use the franchise tag on Johnson next year, but with sky rocketing receiver contracts that is likely to be over 26 million per season anyway.

ESPN’s Bill Barnwell did a story a few days ago on the 2019 receiver class, and where they all stand heading into the final years of their contract. Or in some cases heading into the deadline on whether or not their 5th year options will be picked up. Johnson does not have that as he wasn’t a first round pick.

There are several solid receivers from the 2019 class, DK Metcalf, Terry McLaurin, AJ Brown, Deebo Samuel, and Hollywood Brown.

Barnwell predicts that Metcalf will be traded, but McLaurin, and Brown will both re-sign with their teams. He also predicts that Johnson will re-sign with the Steelers on a four-year contract worth 98 million. He has Brown getting four-years 96 million, and McLaurin getting four-years 100 million.

Interesting enough, Barnwell compared Roethlisberger to the incapable starters the Commanders have had while McLaurin has been there.

Terry McLaurin has played with less notable quarterbacks, but Johnson also has spent his career without a capable passer. Ben Roethlisberger went down injured for the season after six quarters of football in 2019, and his throws didn’t have any zip when he returned the next season. After a rookie year with Mason Rudolph and Devlin Hodges, Johnson has spent the past two seasons running hitches, screens and glance run-pass options. For a guy whose closest comps based on physical traits coming into the league were Kenny Stills and Jaylen Waddle, it’s still remarkable to see this sort of route chart:

Diontae Johnson's route chart in 2021 pic.twitter.com/ZTGdBOc4HB

— Bill Barnwell (@billbarnwell) April 23, 2022

Barnwell would continue:

Since 2020, Johnson and Cooper Kupp are tied for the league lead with 181 targets within five yards of the line of scrimmage. Nobody else is above 153. Kupp has been more productive in short yardage, but their numbers are relatively similar; his targets have produced 143 catches for 1,044 yards, while Johnson’s have resulted in 134 receptions and 941 yards. The difference between these two within five yards amounts to drops; Kupp has four on those throws, but Johnson has 13.

Once you get past that five-yard mark, though, you see the difference in terms of what these receivers have been able to do. With throws traveling at least six yards in the air, Kupp’s 136 targets have produced 1,877 yards, while Johnson’s 133 targets only have generated 1,143 yards. The league’s wide receivers generated 2.71 yards per route run on those passes; at 2.66, Johnson is just below average.

Johnson is right at league average on throws traveling 16 or more yards downfield, which were almost exclusively limited to lobbed fades down either sideline in this Pittsburgh offense. The deep middle of the field was basically off limits. He has three catches on throws traveling at least 20 yards in between the numbers over the past two seasons, which is tied with guys such as Damiere Byrd and Byron Pringle. One of those throws was from Rudolph, while another came on a Roethlisberger scramble and throw on the run, which seemingly combined everything the Steelers didn’t typically do on offense into one single play.

The big question, of course, is whether Johnson wasn’t productive in that part of the field because the Steelers didn’t have a quarterback who could reliably make those passes or because it’s just not his game. I suspect it’s the former, given that JuJu Smith-Schuster (three catches), Chase Claypool (four) and James Washington (four) weren’t exactly racking up big plays deep over the middle, either. If the Steelers had a quarterback who threatened teams vertically on a reliable basis, it could unlock an element of Johnson’s game we haven’t been able to see very often.

Unfortunately, Johnson wasn’t a vertical threat in 2019, because his quarterbacks couldn’t reliably deliver the ball downfield. I’d like that to change in 2022, but I’m not optimistic about the combination of Rudolph and Mitch Trubisky being much of an improvement. The Steelers are expected to pursue a quarterback in this week’s NFL draft, but I’d be more optimistic about Johnson’s numbers spiking if Pittsburgh had managed to acquire Russell Wilson or even Jimmy Garoppolo.

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[MT~Forged]

I sure as h ell hope not.

 

[slashsteel]

Minkah is next up, I am confident in that.

 

[Skott]

Bad move

 

[bkwheat28]

Will he drop the pen when he goes to sign?