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Just wanted to organize some thoughts/statistics at a good point in the season to take a breath.
1. Not all 6-3 records are created equal.
According to Football Outsiders, Indianapolis (6-3) has 98% chance of making the playoffs. The Steelers, with an identical record, is still less than a 2/3rd's chance of making the playoffs (64.3%). The three game winning streak has been great, but we still have a difficult division (all the teams are relevant in playoff discussion) and a tough schedule after the bye week.
2. Is it possible the Steelers have the 2nd best offense in the league?
Football Outsiders says so. With a DVOA (Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average) of +20%, we trail only Denver and are ahead of Green Bay and New Orleans right now in the league.
But before you get excited, there are still some concerns. By the same DVOA measurement, the Steelers are 26th is offensive consistency. So that 2nd rating has been greatly helped by recent games, but they haven't forgotten about some clunkers on the road (where we average 17 points per game). Our points per possession (2.33), while an all-time high during the Roethlisberger era, is only 9th in the league. And our red zone productivity (4.61 points per red zone appearance) remains in the bottom half of the league (24th).
3. How good is Antonio Brown?
Barring injury, Antonio Brown is going to re-write the single season wide receiver franchise records. That's a given. But his projected season could go down as an all-time NFL great. For all the rules opening up the game, only four receivers in history have surpassed 1700 yards receiving in a season since the AFL/NFL merger: Calvin Johnson (2012), Jerry Rice (1995), Issac Bruce (1995) and Marvin Harrison (2002).
Brown is averaging 110 yards per game and is on pace for a 1770 season total. That's 4th all time.
With a projected 14 TD receptions and a TD pass already under his belt it might even be possible to add a TD return and TD run to this season which would put him in very unique (and possibly solo) company. Regardless of how the season ends, we should take the time and appreciate his statistical accomplishments.
4. Is this the worst defense of the Lebeau era?
Looking at the just the numbers, yes. And it's not really close. We can chalk some of the quantity statistics on teams getting into shootouts with us and competitive games going to the end, but even the efficiency stats are pretty bad.
The team is giving up 2.18 points per possession (25th in the league). Under Lebeau it's never been above 2.0 and is trending the wrong way (last year was Lebeau's previous "worst year" when the team was 19th in points per possession against at 1.95). The team is also struggling in red zone defense (18th). If the fortunate 3rd down conversion against (currently a surprising 4th in the league at 34.9%) doesn't hold up or adjusts to the mean, we could be in for a lot more shoot outs.
We've recently improved the turnover and sack percentages (which can help), but it's still a group in transition and trying to find it's way just to mediocrity.
5. Is the team over or under-achieving to date?
They are overachieving.
After two 8-8 season, neutral observers did not expect much. We have been solid favorites (6-8 points) in three of our games (losing one to Tampa Bay), one game as mid-underdogs (-4.5 points vs. Indy) and mostly +/- 3 points in the rest (in which we are 3-2).
History suggests teams with those types of point spreads should have won around 5 games to date. We have won 6, which is a fairly substantial statistical improvement. I understand the frustration of the Tampa Bay game, but most teams only win 3 out of 4 games when they are 7 point favorites. Tomlin's record over the past 10 games as 7+ point favorites hasn't been outstanding, but this season the recent victories as underdogs or close favorites has more than made up the difference.
The Steelers under Tomlin have shown this type of over or under-achieving type seasons (see the 12-4 years vs. the missed playoff years). So far this looks like a typical over-achieving Tomlin year, but only time will tell if they can keep the momentum going.
It starts this week in New York and in particular the 4 road games in the next 5.
1. Not all 6-3 records are created equal.
According to Football Outsiders, Indianapolis (6-3) has 98% chance of making the playoffs. The Steelers, with an identical record, is still less than a 2/3rd's chance of making the playoffs (64.3%). The three game winning streak has been great, but we still have a difficult division (all the teams are relevant in playoff discussion) and a tough schedule after the bye week.
2. Is it possible the Steelers have the 2nd best offense in the league?
Football Outsiders says so. With a DVOA (Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average) of +20%, we trail only Denver and are ahead of Green Bay and New Orleans right now in the league.
But before you get excited, there are still some concerns. By the same DVOA measurement, the Steelers are 26th is offensive consistency. So that 2nd rating has been greatly helped by recent games, but they haven't forgotten about some clunkers on the road (where we average 17 points per game). Our points per possession (2.33), while an all-time high during the Roethlisberger era, is only 9th in the league. And our red zone productivity (4.61 points per red zone appearance) remains in the bottom half of the league (24th).
3. How good is Antonio Brown?
Barring injury, Antonio Brown is going to re-write the single season wide receiver franchise records. That's a given. But his projected season could go down as an all-time NFL great. For all the rules opening up the game, only four receivers in history have surpassed 1700 yards receiving in a season since the AFL/NFL merger: Calvin Johnson (2012), Jerry Rice (1995), Issac Bruce (1995) and Marvin Harrison (2002).
Brown is averaging 110 yards per game and is on pace for a 1770 season total. That's 4th all time.
With a projected 14 TD receptions and a TD pass already under his belt it might even be possible to add a TD return and TD run to this season which would put him in very unique (and possibly solo) company. Regardless of how the season ends, we should take the time and appreciate his statistical accomplishments.
4. Is this the worst defense of the Lebeau era?
Looking at the just the numbers, yes. And it's not really close. We can chalk some of the quantity statistics on teams getting into shootouts with us and competitive games going to the end, but even the efficiency stats are pretty bad.
The team is giving up 2.18 points per possession (25th in the league). Under Lebeau it's never been above 2.0 and is trending the wrong way (last year was Lebeau's previous "worst year" when the team was 19th in points per possession against at 1.95). The team is also struggling in red zone defense (18th). If the fortunate 3rd down conversion against (currently a surprising 4th in the league at 34.9%) doesn't hold up or adjusts to the mean, we could be in for a lot more shoot outs.
We've recently improved the turnover and sack percentages (which can help), but it's still a group in transition and trying to find it's way just to mediocrity.
5. Is the team over or under-achieving to date?
They are overachieving.
After two 8-8 season, neutral observers did not expect much. We have been solid favorites (6-8 points) in three of our games (losing one to Tampa Bay), one game as mid-underdogs (-4.5 points vs. Indy) and mostly +/- 3 points in the rest (in which we are 3-2).
History suggests teams with those types of point spreads should have won around 5 games to date. We have won 6, which is a fairly substantial statistical improvement. I understand the frustration of the Tampa Bay game, but most teams only win 3 out of 4 games when they are 7 point favorites. Tomlin's record over the past 10 games as 7+ point favorites hasn't been outstanding, but this season the recent victories as underdogs or close favorites has more than made up the difference.
The Steelers under Tomlin have shown this type of over or under-achieving type seasons (see the 12-4 years vs. the missed playoff years). So far this looks like a typical over-achieving Tomlin year, but only time will tell if they can keep the momentum going.
It starts this week in New York and in particular the 4 road games in the next 5.
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