It's the economy, stupid

[Steeltime]

(D)ims are rooting for and doing all they can to incite a recession, because Orange Man Bad. So I took a look at some key economic figures that are relevant predictors for future economic performance, and found an article from Forbes this month that notes in part:

Real gross domestic product grew by 2.1% in the second quarter, in line with estimates of the growth of potential GDP. Potential is estimated based on the available labor force and productive capital in the economy. It’s a soft number, but worth looking at. To continue growing along with our potential is better than it sounds, because we are now running above potential. We should expect some decline to return to potential. The 2.1% growth figure is less than the historical average, but that average covers a period with population growth much greater than it is today. Our recent number is just fine.

The second-most-popular aggregate statistic for the economy is job growth, which at 164,000 net new jobs is just a little below the recent trend. The percentage gain in employment is well above the growth of population, though, indicating a tightening labor market. The number of job openings edged down recently, as did employee quits, but both are coming off very high levels. Call this area not quite as good as recently.

Starting through the major sectors of the economy, consumer spending has been a solid foundation for our economic growth. Consumer spending has increased by 3.9% over the past 12 months, with the most recent four months even better. Disposable income grew even faster, up 4.7%, bringing the savings rate up. This sets the foundation for solid growth in the future.

Total consumer spending includes retail sales as well as services, with retail being more discretionary and thus volatile. Retail sales increased by only 3.4% over the past 12 months, but a good bit of the gain came in the most recent four months. Car and light truck sales were 17.3 million units last month, a typical level for the last few years. Measures of consumer confidence are high, but I don’t place much stock in them, as they generally reflect underlying fundamentals of the economy, primarily unemployment, inflation and interest rates. I assess the consumer sector as moderate.

Residential construction is light at 1.253 million housing units. We used to think of 1.5 million as normal, but today’s slower population growth has pushed normal downward. Home prices are still rising, though not as fast as last year. If the recent mortgage rate decline stimulates new construction and sales, developers will only be borrowing from the future. This sector is weak.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/billconerly/2019/08/15/how-bad-is-the-us-economy-in-2019/#1fd93d592e10

Housing is a very important factor in the economy, and can be bolstered with a lowered interest rate. A reduction of the prime rate - which ran basically at zero during the entire Obama debacle - by 0.25% would prime the housing market pretty well.

Overall, some solid numbers. Employment good, income growing, consumer spending high, consumer confidence solid (media attacking this relentlessly, however), and housing market a prime rate reduction away from joining the good news.

 

[JMM]

They've done it before and not that long ago. They ruled both houses of Congress and crashed the economy for W to ensure Obama's election. They'll do it again. They don't give a !@#$. They'll be just fine if the economy tanks.

 

[Steeltime]

They'll be just fine if the economy tanks.

Absolutely. In fact, (D)ims are rooting for a recession and have been for years, because "Orange Man Bad." People lose their homes, their medical insurance, their savings, their retirement, cannot pay for kids schooling? (D)ims don't give a ****. (D)im control matters more than the plight of the deplorables.

 

[Ironcitysteelers]

Another hole they trying to dig and blame. This didn’t work, next, this, next. So fn tired of them. I want Barr to finally put a case out against them, change the narrative to a correct one that desires focus.

 

[ZonaBurgh]

I have Google news as one of my home pages (too lazy to change it), but you would think we were on the verge of the next great depression.

Headlines "Trump risking recession over trade", "Will the Fed move too slow and cause a recession?", "Employment numbers are not as high as reported".

Actively cheering for the economy to tank.

 

[Stewey]

Actually this proves it's NOT about the economy stupid anymore, which is mind numbing scary. Its about getting rid of Trump.

"It's about the economy stupid" was first coined by Bill Clinton campaign manager James Ugly Carville...to stress that the economy is obviously what is most important to all Americans.

 

[Stewey]

 

[Superman]

but wait, i have it on good authority that this thriving, robust economy is because of Bomma's shrewd maneuvering and we're just now reaping the benefits of it.

so which is it? economy good or economy bad?

yes, that's a rhetorical question for you Dimshits.

 

[Coach]

The chance of a recession before 2020 seem slim by the definition of a recession. A recession occurs when there are two or more consecutive quarters of negative gross domestic product (GDP) growth.

Trump should wait for a fed cut, and sort out his business with China. He might have to punt on the trade war until he wins re-election.

 

[xjx]

Trump is the only one in 40 years who was willing to have a trade war with China. They RIP us off. Everyone knows it. China is willing to wait it out....even if it takes 5.5 years. If the next president is willing to continue the "war" China might blink. That is a long time for their economy to shrink. They need money badly to continue their many global projects. If whoever replaces Trump, either in 18 months or 5.5 years, backs down with China on trade....China wins. Not only now, but forever.

 

[Vader]

Before 1978 when China decided to use capitalistic economic policies they could have waited out any president. Now they don't have that luxury. Their economy went from $168.367 billion (current prices, US dollars) in 1981 to $8.227 trillion last year. Trump doesn't have to wait out China... he just has to wait out the current president of China. China can't afford 5.5 years of destroyed economic gains.

 

[Ron Burgundy]

but wait, i have it on good authority that this thriving, robust economy is because of Bomma's shrewd maneuvering and we're just now reaping the benefits of it.

so which is it? economy good or economy bad?

yes, that's a rhetorical question for you Dimshits.

If we had a thriving, robust economy under Bomma, He would have felt like a failure to the memory of His Communist parents and grandparents. That was never part of the plan.

 

[xjx]

Xi will be president until he dies. Trump's term is limited.

 

[Vader]

Xi will be president until he dies. Trump's term is limited.

If the economy fails because of him he will die sooner than you think.

 

[ark steel]

Trump is riding Bomma economic coattails. Right up to the day it goes down.

 

[Steeltime]

Before 1978 when China decided to use capitalistic economic policies they could have waited out any president. Now they don't have that luxury. Their economy went from $168.367 billion (current prices, US dollars) in 1981 to $8.227 trillion last year. Trump doesn't have to wait out China... he just has to wait out the current president of China. China can't afford 5.5 years of destroyed economic gains.

Yep.

This is what Trump knows - the United States can afford a trade war; China cannot.

China's 2018 GDP was $12.6 trillion. Of that, a full $540 billion, or 4.3% of their total economy, came from trading with the United States.

The United States, on the other hand, had a 2018 GDP of $22 trillion, of which a mere $126 billion came from selling goods and services to China, or a mere 0.6% of our economy.

4.3% vs. 0.6%. China's economy is crippled in a trade war; the United States economy is barely nicked.

Further, the simple fact of the matter is this: it is easier to find a willing seller than it is to find a willing buyer. Anybody who works for a living knows this. China cannot possibly find buyers for the $540 billion in goods it sells to the United States, while the United States can easily find sellers willing to make up those sales.

 

[deljzc]

The media has been horrible in this over the past 2 weeks.

They are "reporting" on a "recession" that isn't there. Just "fears of a recession", whatever the **** that means. The media's hope for a recession is downright treasonous. Anything to make this President look bad. It's disgusting. Literally 24-7 news cycle over the past week (once the mass shooting hysteria died down again) has been the sky is falling economy just around the corner.

Nothing optimistic. Nothing about the good parts of the economy. Nothing about consumer spending. Nothing about consumer opinions on the economy (which are very good).

It's bullshit. If a recession happens, I'm blaming at least 50% on the media, just for lying and stoking fear in consumers. It's utter nonsense.

 

[Ironcitysteelers]

Yep.

This is what Trump knows - the United States can afford a trade war; China cannot.

China's 2018 GDP was $12.6 trillion. Of that, a full $540 billion, or 4.3% of their total economy, came from trading with the United States.

The United States, on the other hand, had a 2018 GDP of $22 trillion, of which a mere $126 billion came from selling goods and services to China, or a mere 0.6% of our economy.

4.3% vs. 0.6%. China's economy is crippled in a trade war; the United States economy is barely nicked.

Further, the simple fact of the matter is this: it is easier to find a willing seller than it is to find a willing buyer. Anybody who works for a living knows this. China cannot possibly find buyers for the $540 billion in goods it sells to the United States, while the United States can easily find sellers willing to make up those sales.

so why dont I see stats and information like this ever, unless I get them here? All I hear is the sky is falling.....wtf

 

[ark steel]

Honestly, im amazed that the liberals can see that increasing tariffs (ie a tax) increases prices.

I guess that means taxing corporations would raise prices? Seems crazy out loud!

 

[Steeltime]

so why dont I see stats and information like this ever, unless I get them here? All I hear is the sky is falling.....wtf

I can also state that ten years ago, the information I cited was readily available and easily found on Google. However, since then, Google simply hides such data and I have to search like hell to find it. I go to multiple search engines, and dig and dig.

I now visit the following site for information about the United States economy:

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/gdp-growth

So why would anybody be surprised that such information is not featured by the Democrat media? They are in the business of hiding good news about Republicans, and especially about Trump, and licking the (D)im's asscrack as if it were an ice cream cone.

News that in a trade war, the United States vastly overwhelms China? Cannot let that news out. Hide it - "Trade wars bad, recession looms!!"

Bunk. The Chinese economy is teetering on failure. They are desperate to avoid any moves by the United States to protect its manufacturing base.

 

[Superman]

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/ch...n_OlT-xFvAzl3debWVx8O6Crbb4sZleAeEHuLcEFPy3Lo


China announces it seeks 'calm' end to trade war, as markets tank and currency hits 11-year flatline

China signaled Monday it is now seeking a "calm" end to its ongoing trade war with the U.S. and President Trump voiced optimism about a deal, as Asian markets crumbled and China's currency plummeted to an 11-year low following the latest tariffs on $550 billion in Chinese goods announced last Friday by the Trump administration.

"I think we're going to have a deal," Trump told reporters.

Trump said Monday that officials from China called U.S. officials and expressed interest to "get back to the table,” The Wall Street Journal reported. He called the discussions a “very positive development.”

“They want to make a deal. That’s a great thing,” he said.

News of the possible opening in negotiations came shortly after Trump threatened to declare a national emergency that would result in American businesses freezing their relationships with China. Trump's tariff barrage on Friday was a response to China imposing its own retaliatory tariffs on $75 billion in U.S. goods.

At the Group of Seven summit in France on Sunday, White House officials rejected suggestions the president was wavering and insisted that his only regret was not implementing even more tariffs on China. Trump wrote on Twitter that world leaders at the G-7 were "laughing" at all the inaccurate media coverage of the gathering.

In response, Chinese Vice Premier Liu He told a state-controlled newspaper on Monday that "China is willing to resolve its trade dispute with the United States through calm negotiations and resolutely opposes the escalation of the conflict," Reuters first reported, citing a transcript of his remarks provided by the Chinese government. Liu is China's top trade negotiator.

Speaking at a technology conference in China, Liu added: “We believe that the escalation of the trade war is not beneficial for China, the United States, nor to the interests of the people of the world."

“We welcome enterprises from all over the world, including the United States, to invest and operate in China,” Liu said. “We will continue to create a good investment environment, protect intellectual property rights, promote the development of smart intelligent industries with our market open, resolutely oppose technological blockades and protectionism, and strive to protect the completeness of the supply chain.”

Asian shares tumbled early Monday, with Japan's benchmark Nikkei 225 started plummeting as soon as trading began and stood at 20,234.87 in the morning session, down 2.3 percent. Australia's S&P/ASX 200 slipped 1.5 percent to 6,427.20. South Korea's Kospi lost 1.7 percent to 1,916.14. Hong Kong's Hang Seng dropped 3.3 percent to 25,309.37, while the Shanghai Composite was down 1.2 percent at 2,862.87.

The yuan also slipped to 7.1487 to the dollar, weeks after the Treasury Department formally designated China a currency manipulator. The Treasury Department said it will work with the International Monetary Fund to try to rectify the “unfair competitive advantage created by China’s latest actions.”

"The gloves are coming off on both sides and as such yuan depreciation is an obvious cushion against US tariffs," Mitul Kotecha, an economist at Toronto-Dominion Bank, told Bloomberg News.

There are several reasons why China's central bank would want to allow the yuan to drop, including to help struggling local exporters who want their products to be less expensive for international purchasers. People’s Bank of China Governor Yi Gang, however, has insisted China does not "engage in competitive devaluation."

On Sunday, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin told reporters that if "China would agree to a fair and balanced relationship, we would sign that deal in a second."

Stephen Innes, managing partner at Valour Markets in Singapore, compared the difficulty of assessing the volatile market situation to reading tea leaves.

"Nobody understands where the president is coming from," he said, adding that the best thing Trump can do for market stability is to "keep quiet."

"The problem that we're faced right now is that we are making a lot of assumptions ahead of the economic realities."

The market is now dominated by fears of a portending U.S. recession, although the American economy is actually holding up, and much of the U.S. economy is made up of consumption, Innes said. If interest rates come down, he added, consumer spending is likely to go up, working as a buffer for the economy.

"What the market's really waiting for is for them to drop interest rates," Innes said. "Right now, we are still sitting on that uncertainty."

Meanwhile, Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., said on Sunday that Democrats should not criticize Trump for taking on China over trade as they have complained for years about Beijing’s policies but done nothing. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y, for example, has urged Trump to fight China aggressively.

“Every Democrat and every Republican of note has said China cheats,” Graham said on CBS News’ “Face the Nation.” “The Democrats for years have been claiming that China should be stood up to, now Trump is and we’ve just got to accept the pain that comes with standing up to China.”

U.S. markets have also taken something of a beating. The Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged more than 600 points Friday after the latest escalation in the trade war between the U.S. and China rattled investors. The broad sell-off sent the S&P 500 to its fourth straight weekly loss.

The tumbling began after Trump responded angrily on Twitter following China's announcement of new tariffs on $75 billion in U.S. goods. In one of his tweets he "hereby ordered" U.S. companies with operations in China to consider moving them to other countries — including the U.S.

Trump also said he'd respond directly to the tariffs — and after the market closed he delivered, announcing that the U.S. would increase existing tariffs on $250 billion in Chinese goods to 30 percent from 25 percent, and that new tariffs on another $300 billion of imports would be 15 percent instead of 10 percent.

"Starting on October 1st, the 250 BILLION DOLLARS of goods and products from China, currently being taxed at 25 percent, will be taxed at 30 percent," Trump wrote on Twitter. "Additionally, the remaining 300 BILLION DOLLARS of goods and products from China, that was being taxed from September 1st at 10 percent, will now be taxed at 15 percent. Thank you for your attention to this matter!".

Zhu Huani of Mizuho Bank in Singapore said what he called Trump's "tariff tantrum" was setting off "the sense that tariffs could continue to rise," with the "the unpredictability of timing and extent of these trade actions risk accentuating the paralysis of business decisions and big-ticket business spending."

"No matter which way you cut the cake, it is nearly impossible to construct a bullish, or even neutral scenario for equity markets today," said Jeffrey Halley, senior market analyst at Oanda.

Trump also said Friday morning that he was "ordering" UPS, Federal Express and Amazon to block any deliveries from China of the powerful opioid drug fentanyl. The stocks of all three companies fell as traders tried to assess the possible implications.

The president has also raged against Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell for his continued refusal to cut interest rates, at one point saying: "My only question is, who is our bigger enemy, Jay Powel (sic) or [China's] Chairman Xi [Jinping]?"

That outburst came after Powell, speaking to central bankers in Jackson Hole, Wyo., gave vague assurances that the Fed "will act as appropriate" to sustain the nation's economic expansion. While the phrasing was widely seen as meaning interest rate cuts, he offered no hint of whether or how many reductions might be coming the rest of the year.

Some analysts, however, are confident the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates this year.

A quarter-point rate cut reduction in September is considered all but certain.

Fox News' Ronn Blitzer, Joseph Wulfsohn, and The Associated Press contributed to this report.

 

[Steeltime]

Zhu Huani of Mizuho Bank in Singapore said what he called Trump's "tariff tantrum" was setting off "the sense that tariffs could continue to rise," with the "the unpredictability of timing and extent of these trade actions risk accentuating the paralysis of business decisions and big-ticket business spending."

... following the latest tariffs on $550 billion in Chinese goods announced last Friday by the Trump administration. ... Trump's tariff barrage on Friday was a response to China imposing its own retaliatory tariffs on $75 billion in U.S. goods

Uhhh, do we see why China loses this battle?!?

 

[Superman]

Uhhh, do we see why China loses this battle?!?

you dont understand the maths involved. where's the arktuary?

 

[SteelChip]

you dont understand the maths involved. where's the arktuary?

xactly..but..figure in the **** first.......