From dkonpittsburghsports
SEATTLE — It’s not quite mene, mene, teckel, upharsin yet, but the writing appears to be on the wall regarding the long-term future of Marc-André Fleury with the Penguins.
Matt's Stats_5-26-16
With the 22-year-old Matt Murray having just helped the franchise capture its fourth Stanley Cup and Fleury, 31, still due $5.75 million in each of the next three seasons, it seems more likely than not that the younger of the two will have the crease to himself at some point soon.
As Jim Rutherford told our Josh Yohe and others at the NHL Draft, his “preference” is to keep Fleury around for the start of the 2016-17 season. There’s no doubt that having two very capable goalies is better than having one, although additional space under the salary cap would also help the Penguins optimize their upcoming title defense.
For argument’s sake, what would the Penguins be missing if Fleury were sent away from the only NHL team he’s ever known? Over his decade-plus in Pittsburgh, the popular perception of Fleury has fluctuated from raw talent … to champion on the rise … to unacceptably erratic … to surprisingly resurgent.
That last stage has played out over the past three seasons, when Fleury has recorded save percentages of .915, .921 and .920 while starting 76 percent of his team’s games. His performance since 2013-14, when Mike Bales took over as goaltending coach, has provide both volume and quality, as the league’s mean save percentage has stabilized at about .915.
But how has Fleury’s play matched up with those in his peer group? Or, to say it another way, where has he ranked against goalies who received similar workloads over the past three years?
Using data culled by Corsica Hockey, let’s first look at Fleury’s performance in even-strength situations, where the sample size is larger and isn’t privy to the fluctuations of special teams play.
Among the 24 goalies who’ve played 6,000 minutes or more since the fall of 2013, Fleury ranks 14th with a .926 save percentage. That positions him just behind Ben Bishop and Semyon Varlamov and just ahead of Sergei Bobrovsky and Pekka Rinne.
If we narrow down to just the past two years, Fleury has been even better at even strength, ranking eighth of 23 goalies with 4,000 minutes or more. His .930 save rate is level with 2015-16 Vezina Trophy winner Braden Holtby and one percentage point better than Tuukka Rask, who was voted the NHL’s top netminder in 2013-14.
How about shorthanded performance? We all know that hoary hockey cliché: Your goalie has to be your best penalty killer.
There have been 21 goalies who have absorbed at least 750 shorthanded minutes over the past three seasons. It’s in these situations that Fleury has truly shined, posting a .905 save percentage that trails only Varlamov’s .906. The ranking is almost identical if we focus in on the past two seasons, as well.
Thinking about shorthanded save percentage reminds that high-quality saves are the difference-makers more often than not. That’s where an interesting new stat called Expected Goals (xG) comes into play.
Using the xG model designed by Emmanuel Perry, which assigns a goal probability to each shot based on a variety of factors, Fleury should have allowed 464 goals in all situations over the past three seasons, when in actuality he has conceded 428. That’s about an 8 percent difference to the positive.
Of the 23 goalies who have played 8,000 all-situation minutes since the fall of 2013, Fleury ranks 10th in this area. Carey Price has the largest positive spread between xG allowed and actual goals allowed, at 23 percent, with Henrik Lundqvist ranking second at 16 percent.
So, while Fleury probably isn’t one of the five most valuable goalies in the league since the end of the lockout-shortened 2013 season, he’s firmly in that second tier that is reliably above average and — until this spring — remarkably durable. Only Jonathan Quick and Rask have been on the ice more often for their teams than Fleury during the span we looked at today.
Murray is one of the most highly-regarded goalie prospects in the NHL, but that’s still a high standard to live up to. The Penguins proved this spring that they don’t require otherworldly netminding to win, so it might not matter as much to them compared to teams like the Rangers or Canadiens, both of which lean on their masked men more than most.
However, we shouldn’t assume goalies like Fleury are easily replicated. As the numbers demonstrate, there have been few better in recent years.
SEATTLE — It’s not quite mene, mene, teckel, upharsin yet, but the writing appears to be on the wall regarding the long-term future of Marc-André Fleury with the Penguins.
Matt's Stats_5-26-16
With the 22-year-old Matt Murray having just helped the franchise capture its fourth Stanley Cup and Fleury, 31, still due $5.75 million in each of the next three seasons, it seems more likely than not that the younger of the two will have the crease to himself at some point soon.
As Jim Rutherford told our Josh Yohe and others at the NHL Draft, his “preference” is to keep Fleury around for the start of the 2016-17 season. There’s no doubt that having two very capable goalies is better than having one, although additional space under the salary cap would also help the Penguins optimize their upcoming title defense.
For argument’s sake, what would the Penguins be missing if Fleury were sent away from the only NHL team he’s ever known? Over his decade-plus in Pittsburgh, the popular perception of Fleury has fluctuated from raw talent … to champion on the rise … to unacceptably erratic … to surprisingly resurgent.
That last stage has played out over the past three seasons, when Fleury has recorded save percentages of .915, .921 and .920 while starting 76 percent of his team’s games. His performance since 2013-14, when Mike Bales took over as goaltending coach, has provide both volume and quality, as the league’s mean save percentage has stabilized at about .915.
But how has Fleury’s play matched up with those in his peer group? Or, to say it another way, where has he ranked against goalies who received similar workloads over the past three years?
Using data culled by Corsica Hockey, let’s first look at Fleury’s performance in even-strength situations, where the sample size is larger and isn’t privy to the fluctuations of special teams play.
Among the 24 goalies who’ve played 6,000 minutes or more since the fall of 2013, Fleury ranks 14th with a .926 save percentage. That positions him just behind Ben Bishop and Semyon Varlamov and just ahead of Sergei Bobrovsky and Pekka Rinne.
If we narrow down to just the past two years, Fleury has been even better at even strength, ranking eighth of 23 goalies with 4,000 minutes or more. His .930 save rate is level with 2015-16 Vezina Trophy winner Braden Holtby and one percentage point better than Tuukka Rask, who was voted the NHL’s top netminder in 2013-14.
How about shorthanded performance? We all know that hoary hockey cliché: Your goalie has to be your best penalty killer.
There have been 21 goalies who have absorbed at least 750 shorthanded minutes over the past three seasons. It’s in these situations that Fleury has truly shined, posting a .905 save percentage that trails only Varlamov’s .906. The ranking is almost identical if we focus in on the past two seasons, as well.
Thinking about shorthanded save percentage reminds that high-quality saves are the difference-makers more often than not. That’s where an interesting new stat called Expected Goals (xG) comes into play.
Using the xG model designed by Emmanuel Perry, which assigns a goal probability to each shot based on a variety of factors, Fleury should have allowed 464 goals in all situations over the past three seasons, when in actuality he has conceded 428. That’s about an 8 percent difference to the positive.
Of the 23 goalies who have played 8,000 all-situation minutes since the fall of 2013, Fleury ranks 10th in this area. Carey Price has the largest positive spread between xG allowed and actual goals allowed, at 23 percent, with Henrik Lundqvist ranking second at 16 percent.
So, while Fleury probably isn’t one of the five most valuable goalies in the league since the end of the lockout-shortened 2013 season, he’s firmly in that second tier that is reliably above average and — until this spring — remarkably durable. Only Jonathan Quick and Rask have been on the ice more often for their teams than Fleury during the span we looked at today.
Murray is one of the most highly-regarded goalie prospects in the NHL, but that’s still a high standard to live up to. The Penguins proved this spring that they don’t require otherworldly netminding to win, so it might not matter as much to them compared to teams like the Rangers or Canadiens, both of which lean on their masked men more than most.
However, we shouldn’t assume goalies like Fleury are easily replicated. As the numbers demonstrate, there have been few better in recent years.
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