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The AFC North will be tough as nails again, and the Pittsburgh Steelers are in a somewhat transitional period.
Will Ben Roethlisberger be the guy all season? Or will Mason Rudolph play a more active role in 2021? The offense still has plenty of weapons, and the defense will strong once again. So, most of the question marks revolve around Roethlisberger and how much he has left.
This is the first time in decades that the Steelers have opened up behind the Cleveland Browns on the NFL betting boards to win the AFC North.
The Baltimore Ravens top the division with +115 odds, the Browns are just behind them at +150, the Steelers are back in 3rd at +400, and the Cincinnati Bengals are still the Bengals at +2400.
Ok. Let’s look at a few factors and compare them against each other to see if we can create some sort of landscape for the Steelers in 2021.
The Steelers opened with a regular-season wins total of 9 games. This lets us know that the Men of Steel are right around the middle of the league, at least in the eyes of the boys and girls in Las Vegas.
Season Wins Lines for AFC North:
Just a game separates the Steelers from the Browns and the Browns from the Ravens. So, this could end up another tight race for the AFC North. That said, the Steelers are one of three teams in the AFC North that is expected to lose in Week 1. Sportsbooks list Pittsburgh as 6-point underdogs to the Buffalo Bills. But, at least they are not alone. The Browns open their season against the Kansas City Chiefs and have a line of +6.5. The Bengals are also projected to start with a loss against the Minnesota Vikings. The Ravens are the only team in the division favored, and it wouldn’t be surprising to some if they take a loss to the Las Vegas Raiders in Las Vegas—Gruden always opens strong.
This brings me to our first point of cross-referencing: the early spreads.
The Steelers are actually favored in half their games this season. They are dogs in 8, and a pick’em in Week 17 against the Browns. However, the only game where the Steelers are dogs of more than 4.5 points are in Week 1 at the Bills, Week 16 at the Chiefs (-8.5), and Week 18 in Baltimore (-5.5).
However, many of the lines that list them as underdogs are by a field goal or less. They are just 2.5 point dogs against the Vikings in Minnesota, 2.5 point dogs against the Ravens in Week 13 in Pittsburgh, 2.5 point dogs in Los Angeles against the Chargers, and just 2.5 point dogs in Green Bay against the Packers … which is likely to flip to a favorite spot if Aaron Rodgers isn’t on the field.
OK. Here is where it gets tricky. According to the results of the 2020 season, the Steelers are in for a brutal schedule. They have the toughest slate in the league when you look at the opponent win percentage from the previous year.
However, I like to do my SOS based on projected wins. Unfortunately, the Steelers still come in the No. 31 spot, just behind the Raiders, who have had consecutive tough opponents scheduled. It doesn’t get any better when we look at cumulative rest. Teams like the Carolina Panthers, Cincinnati Bengals, and Detroit Lions are the teams with the most rest advantages throughout the season. The Steelers, on the other hand, are fifth from the bottom with 8 games with a rest disadvantage.
So, what does this all add up to?
Even if Big Ben plays the majority of the season and plays well, I don’t see the Steelers going past 10 wins. I believe the handicappers at Sportsbooks around the world nailed it with their O/U of 9 wins. Each year, teams win unexpected games and lose unexpected games, so it just depends. Do the Steelers win an extra unexpected game or lose an extra unexpected game? Meanwhile, the Browns have the 3rd easiest slate, which could come into play during their Week 17 head to head.
Where do you think the Steelers will finish in the AFC North this season? Leave a comment below!
#SteelerNation
Support SteelerNation by clicking here to read the story..
Will Ben Roethlisberger be the guy all season? Or will Mason Rudolph play a more active role in 2021? The offense still has plenty of weapons, and the defense will strong once again. So, most of the question marks revolve around Roethlisberger and how much he has left.
This is the first time in decades that the Steelers have opened up behind the Cleveland Browns on the NFL betting boards to win the AFC North.
The Baltimore Ravens top the division with +115 odds, the Browns are just behind them at +150, the Steelers are back in 3rd at +400, and the Cincinnati Bengals are still the Bengals at +2400.
Ok. Let’s look at a few factors and compare them against each other to see if we can create some sort of landscape for the Steelers in 2021.
Season Wins Totals
The Steelers opened with a regular-season wins total of 9 games. This lets us know that the Men of Steel are right around the middle of the league, at least in the eyes of the boys and girls in Las Vegas.
Season Wins Lines for AFC North:
- Cincinnati O/U 6.5
- Pittsburgh O/U 9
- Cleveland O/U 10
- Baltimore O/U 11
Just a game separates the Steelers from the Browns and the Browns from the Ravens. So, this could end up another tight race for the AFC North. That said, the Steelers are one of three teams in the AFC North that is expected to lose in Week 1. Sportsbooks list Pittsburgh as 6-point underdogs to the Buffalo Bills. But, at least they are not alone. The Browns open their season against the Kansas City Chiefs and have a line of +6.5. The Bengals are also projected to start with a loss against the Minnesota Vikings. The Ravens are the only team in the division favored, and it wouldn’t be surprising to some if they take a loss to the Las Vegas Raiders in Las Vegas—Gruden always opens strong.
This brings me to our first point of cross-referencing: the early spreads.
The Steelers are actually favored in half their games this season. They are dogs in 8, and a pick’em in Week 17 against the Browns. However, the only game where the Steelers are dogs of more than 4.5 points are in Week 1 at the Bills, Week 16 at the Chiefs (-8.5), and Week 18 in Baltimore (-5.5).
However, many of the lines that list them as underdogs are by a field goal or less. They are just 2.5 point dogs against the Vikings in Minnesota, 2.5 point dogs against the Ravens in Week 13 in Pittsburgh, 2.5 point dogs in Los Angeles against the Chargers, and just 2.5 point dogs in Green Bay against the Packers … which is likely to flip to a favorite spot if Aaron Rodgers isn’t on the field.
Strength of Schedule
OK. Here is where it gets tricky. According to the results of the 2020 season, the Steelers are in for a brutal schedule. They have the toughest slate in the league when you look at the opponent win percentage from the previous year.
However, I like to do my SOS based on projected wins. Unfortunately, the Steelers still come in the No. 31 spot, just behind the Raiders, who have had consecutive tough opponents scheduled. It doesn’t get any better when we look at cumulative rest. Teams like the Carolina Panthers, Cincinnati Bengals, and Detroit Lions are the teams with the most rest advantages throughout the season. The Steelers, on the other hand, are fifth from the bottom with 8 games with a rest disadvantage.
So, what does this all add up to?
You know what day it is#BensDay pic.twitter.com/0kACliJJvi
— Pittsburgh Steelers (@steelers) June 23, 2021
Even if Big Ben plays the majority of the season and plays well, I don’t see the Steelers going past 10 wins. I believe the handicappers at Sportsbooks around the world nailed it with their O/U of 9 wins. Each year, teams win unexpected games and lose unexpected games, so it just depends. Do the Steelers win an extra unexpected game or lose an extra unexpected game? Meanwhile, the Browns have the 3rd easiest slate, which could come into play during their Week 17 head to head.
Where do you think the Steelers will finish in the AFC North this season? Leave a comment below!
#SteelerNation
Support SteelerNation by clicking here to read the story..
