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Living in the Philadelphia market, I am seeing first hand the HUGE amounts of ad money going into the Pennsylvania senate race that could decide the majority for the next 2 years.
The McGinty (D) vs. Tomey (R)* (incumbent) is very close in the polls and almost a coin flip game right now.
The others that will change the 54-46 current Republican majority:
The Republicans are likely going to lose as least THREE seats without much of a fight:
Wisconsin: Feingold (D) is going to beat Johnson (R)*
Illinois: Duckworth (D) is going to beat Kirk (R)*
Indiana: Bayh (D) is going to beat Young (R) (no incumbent - open seat that is currently (R)
In addition to Pennsylvania there are TWO other really close fights:
New Hampshire: two women, Hassan (D) is neck and neck with Ayotte (R)*
Nevada: Heck (R) is ahead but neck and neck against Cortez Masto (D) in a currently held Democrat seat (Harry Reid is retiring)
For all intents and purposes the current 2017 Senate is 49-48 Republican with THREE races deciding the outcome: Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Nevada. Note all three of those states are swing states in the general election as well.
Arguably, they will fall the same way as the general election. If Trump wins than most likely Republican turnout was good and those three states will tip Republican due to lever pullers (voting all R). That means a likely 51 or 52 Senate majority for a Trump Presidency and a likely 50 or 51 seat Senate majority for a Clinton Presidency with Kane being the deciding vote in the case of a 50-50 Senate split.
Note even with a 50-50 split, I would think Republicans will do well in 2018 to get a seat back (off-year) but the damage could be done to the Supreme Court over the next 2 years with filling Scalia's seat and likely replacing Ruth Bader Ginsberg with another super liberal.
The McGinty (D) vs. Tomey (R)* (incumbent) is very close in the polls and almost a coin flip game right now.
The others that will change the 54-46 current Republican majority:
The Republicans are likely going to lose as least THREE seats without much of a fight:
Wisconsin: Feingold (D) is going to beat Johnson (R)*
Illinois: Duckworth (D) is going to beat Kirk (R)*
Indiana: Bayh (D) is going to beat Young (R) (no incumbent - open seat that is currently (R)
In addition to Pennsylvania there are TWO other really close fights:
New Hampshire: two women, Hassan (D) is neck and neck with Ayotte (R)*
Nevada: Heck (R) is ahead but neck and neck against Cortez Masto (D) in a currently held Democrat seat (Harry Reid is retiring)
For all intents and purposes the current 2017 Senate is 49-48 Republican with THREE races deciding the outcome: Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Nevada. Note all three of those states are swing states in the general election as well.
Arguably, they will fall the same way as the general election. If Trump wins than most likely Republican turnout was good and those three states will tip Republican due to lever pullers (voting all R). That means a likely 51 or 52 Senate majority for a Trump Presidency and a likely 50 or 51 seat Senate majority for a Clinton Presidency with Kane being the deciding vote in the case of a 50-50 Senate split.
Note even with a 50-50 split, I would think Republicans will do well in 2018 to get a seat back (off-year) but the damage could be done to the Supreme Court over the next 2 years with filling Scalia's seat and likely replacing Ruth Bader Ginsberg with another super liberal.
