Why do teams miss on 1OA QBS so much?

[madinsomniac]

The Trevor Lawerence ( probably BS) rumors got me thinking... why are so many 1OA qbs unsuccessful with the team that drafted them

The Draft has been around since 1936... 89 seasons now... 36 of those years a QB was taken 1oa ( about 40%)... however this has been way more frequent since the late 90's as passing became more prevalent
The first 61 years 16 qbs were taken 1OA (about 26%)

1993 Drew Bledsoe (Washington St) NE Patriots
-4 time Pro bowler and started a Superbowl
1990 Jeff George (Illinois) Indianapolis Colts
- trade after 3 years... played 14 years though...
1989 Troy Aikman (UCLA) Dallas Cowboys
Won 3 sbs with cowboys and the HOF
1987 Vinny Testaverde (Miami) Tampa Bay Buccaneers
-did nothing for the Bucs, but player 21 years abd made a couple pro bowls later in his career...
1983 John Elway (Stanford) Baltimore Colts
Traded to Denver and was all time great winning 2 sbs with them... HOF
1975 Steve Bartkowski (California) Atlanta Falcons
2 time pro bowler, but 0 championships
1971 Jim Plunkett (Stanford) New England Patriots
- after being traded then cut, won 2 Sbs with Raiders
1970 Terry Bradshaw (Louisiana Tech) Pittsburgh Steelers HOF
-4 time sb Champion
1963 Terry Baker (Oregon State) Los Angeles Rams
*Bust
1959 Randy Duncan (Iowa) Green Bay Packers
1958 King Hill (Rice) Chicago Cardinals
*Bust
1955 George Shaw (Oregon) Baltimore Colts
- lost his job to Unitas and was a backup on a championship team before getting cut..
1954 Bobby Garrett (Stanford) Cleveland Browns
*Bust
1952 Bill Wade (Vanderbilt) Los Angeles Rams
-Won a Championship after being traded to bears
1946 Frank Dancewicz (Notre Dame) Boston Yanks
*Bust
1944 Angelo Bertelli (Notre Dame)
*Bust

So of those first 16, only Two won championships for the team that drafted them... 3 more won a championship for another team..

But in the past 28 years, 20 qbs have gone 1OA... (71%)

2024 Caleb Williams
2023 Bryce Young (Alabama) Carolina Panthers
- already benched once
2021 Trevor Lawrence (Clemson) Jacksonville Jaguars
- mediocre so far
2020 Joe Burrow (LSU) Cincinnati Bengals
- made a super Bowl and a top QB
2019 Kyler Murray (Oklahoma) Arizona Cardinals
- has been a good QB on a bad team
2018 Baker Mayfield (Oklahoma) Cleveland Browns
- finally developed after playing for several teams
2016 Jared Goff (California) St. Louis Rams
- Traded to detroit
2015 Jameis Winston (Florida State) Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Developed into a borderline starter
2012 Andrew Luck (Stanford) Indianapolis Colts
-Retired early
2011 Cam Newton (Auburn) Carolina Panthers
- led his team to a super bowl, but lost
2010 Sam Bradford (Oklahoma) St. Louis Rams
- bust
2009 Matthew Stafford (Georgia) Detroit Lions
- traded to Rams, where he won a superbowl
2007 JaMarcus Russell (LSU) Oakland Raiders
Super mega bust
2005 Alex Smith (Utah) San Francisco 49ers
MediocreQB that eventually was an average starter
2004 Eli Manning (Ole Miss) San Diego Chargers
Refused to play for SD, traded to NY and won 2 sbs
2003 Carson Palmer (USC) Cincinnati Bengals
- an above average qb that made 2 all pro teams, but only won one playoff game in his career
2002 David Carr (Fresno State) Houston Texans
-Ruined by lack of Oline
2001 Michael Vick (Virginia Tech) Atlanta Falcons
-ended up in jail
1999 Tim Couch (Kentucky) Cleveland Browns
*Bust
1998 Peyton Manning (Tennessee) Indianapolis Colts
The only QB among the last 20 qbs to win a super bowl for the team that drafted him


Looking at these guys, many wouldnt even be the top qb taken in a redraft of their draft class...

 

[insaniti]

It's a QB driven league, and usually the teams drafting first overall are desperate for a QB. Even if the numbers don't back it up, and you're more likely to land an all-pro at another position, everyone is looking for that franchise guy.

 

[Drink IRON City]

Nice break down madinsomniac, thanks for putting in the work and for all your great post(s) along the way.


I think this puts into perspective just how hard it is to find that FRANCHISE QB.

I can’t predict if Trevor L. Is franchise material or not, as shown it could take a second or even a third team before we know.

I can tell you that we got VERY fortunate to have gotten Ben Roethlisberger and to have him play as long as he did, right here.

Unless awfully lucky or the sun is shining on some dogs asZ for the first time, it will be awhile before this coaching regime land a Franchis QB. KFP was a feeble attempt and shows this staff isn’t well equipped to develop a young QB.

Prove me wrong Coach Tomlin, get that guy or at least commit so as we can get away from bringing stop-gaps as if they are the solution.


Salute the nation

 

[Badcat]

Now THIS is a solid post! A well thought out and a good amount of research put into it.

There are so many factors that go into the talents of a QB and whether he's heading into the right offensive system, coaching abilities, is he coachable, weapons in the passing game, weapons in the running game, is he built for cold or inclimate weather, How solid is the offensive line, Is he a good team mate, is he a good leader, is he cool/calm/collected when **** heads south...

It's really tough to find the Ben Roethlisberger's of this world. Increasingly so as less and less college programs are developing QB's in pro systems any longer. They have to win now and anyone waiting in the wings hits the transfer portal and goes somewhere else to play.

 

[bkwheat28]

I think another thing is teams picking that high aren’t built yet for said qb to be able to have success. In reality, so many other things should be being done for a team being built from scrap heap and qb is last of the solution. I know it’s been said here before, but Terry B. wouldn’t have made it with first team (us) in today’s world. Can you imagine this board in his first few years?

 

[jitter77]

I think alot of it has to do with where they go. Most first round QBs have proven talent. You do have some exceptions like Trey Lance who was basically drafted on potential alone. If you get drafted early you are basically going to a very bad team. A bad Oline or coaching can ruin a young QB. Other guys just don't put in the effort once they "made it." Look at a guy like Jamarcus Russel who basically ate himself out of the league. I also think some guys are just built different and have the "IT" factor. I have seen guys play blindfolded chess on 4 boards at the same time. I don't care how much i studied or practiced i would never be able to do that. Some people are just born with certain talents. Just need to figure out what they are and maximize them.

 

[SteelerSask2]

The miss rate on QB is so high because there are only about 8 guys on the field that will play in the NFL next year on a good college game. And several won't see field for a couple years. And then the play style differs significantly from college.

 

[topseed]

#2 overall picks who were quarterbacks haven't fared much better. Since Archie Manning in 1971 and Bert Jones in 1973:

1993 Rick Mirer
1998 Ryan Leaf
1999 Donovan McNabb
2012 Robert Griffin III
2015 Marcus Mariota
2016 Carson Wentz
2017 Mitch Trubisky
2021 Zach Wilson
2023 CJ Stroud
2024 Jayden Daniels

Only McNabb put together a good career. I think the last two guys on this list have great potential, especially Daniels.

 

[slashsteel]

#2 overall picks who were quarterbacks haven't fared much better. Since Archie Manning in 1971 and Bert Jones in 1973:

1993 Rick Mirer
1998 Ryan Leaf
1999 Donovan McNabb
2012 Robert Griffin III
2015 Marcus Mariota
2016 Carson Wentz
2017 Mitch Trubisky
2021 Zach Wilson
2023 CJ Stroud
2024 Jayden Daniels

Only McNabb put together a good career. I think the last two guys on this list have great potential, especially Daniels.

Last two were knocked out of the park though…

Agree with McNabb too. Was definitely feast or fathom..

 

[Fiji Mariner]

I think another thing is teams picking that high aren’t built yet for said qb to be able to have success. In reality, so many other things should be being done for a team being built from scrap heap and qb is last of the solution. I know it’s been said here before, but Terry B. wouldn’t have made it with first team (us) in today’s world. Can you imagine this board in his first few years?

Carolina was a prime example of this…had a **** OL and lack of skill players. They invested in a couple premium guards to stop the massive amount of pressure up the middle and tried to upgrade their skill players which were also trash. Then said QB1 looks much better in starts after his first 17 games where he was thrust into a bad situation on a poor team.

The second half of the year when they quit the failed Dalton experiment Bryce was taking steps
forward nearly every game…winning some and at least putting elite teams like the Eagles and Chiefs to the test in hard fought close losses, the same types of teams that simply obliterate a Tomlinized team.

 

[madinsomniac]

Last two were knocked out of the park though…

Agree with McNabb too. Was definitely feast or fathom..

Ehhh... I really like both Stroud and especially Daniels, but Stroud had issues his first year covered up by the system he ran... he regressed a bit year two...

Its really interesting that many of these 2oa picks either had remarkable rookie seasons or second years, then fell off a cliff, so it is too early to say anything...

-Carson Wentz was average year 1, but made the pro bowl year two and followed it up with two more good seasons before he crashed to earth year 5 and never recovered...
-Trubisky also peaked year 2, making the pro bowl and playoffs... then sunk into mediocrity
- Mariota finished his rookie year with the 5th highest all time passer rating for a rookie at that point.... he slightly improved his second year before collapsing into mediocrity...
RG3 had, at the time, the highest passer rating for a rookie and was a first year pro bowler and offensive Rookie of the year.. then spiraled downward to nothingness...

So just like its too early to judge a bad QB after one or two season, the same is true for a good one...

 

[Black & Gold Bleeder]

idc so much what qb we get / use. Nobody can predict their success. IM MORE concerned with our Offense and our coordinator using the talents that we have more efficiently. We diddnt have a package to use Fields later in the year. We didnt use our TE's very well. Our O line couldnt make holes. With a decent D which we kinda have we should be able to win games if we can score. THATS IT.

 

[Drink IRON City]

Ehhh... I really like both Stroud and especially Daniels, but Stroud had issues his first year covered up by the system he ran... he regressed a bit year two...

Its really interesting that many of these 2oa picks either had remarkable rookie seasons or second years, then fell off a cliff, so it is too early to say anything...

-Carson Wentz was average year 1, but made the pro bowl year two and followed it up with two more good seasons before he crashed to earth year 5 and never recovered...
-Trubisky also peaked year 2, making the pro bowl and playoffs... then sunk into mediocrity
- Mariota finished his rookie year with the 5th highest all time passer rating for a rookie at that point.... he slightly improved his second year before collapsing into mediocrity...
RG3 had, at the time, the highest passer rating for a rookie and was a first year pro bowler and offensive Rookie of the year.. then spiraled downward to nothingness...

So just like its too early to judge a bad QB after one or two season, the same is true for a good one...

So, there’s hope in Justin, to a lesser degree than had he blew things up his 1st second year……..? I don’t mean this in a negative way, I mean in reality, should Fields be resigned this would be his Second time second year……………..


Salute the nation

 

[Black & Gold Bleeder]

what do you want out of him?

Seriously , what are we wanting? We arent getting Luck. We arent getting Peyton Manning. NO matter what.

Get reasonable people.

 

[Fiji Mariner]

what do you want out of him?

Seriously , what are we wanting? We arent getting Luck. We arent getting Peyton Manning. NO matter what.

Get reasonable people.

He should at least be able to be slightly better than Kordell (at a minimum for his ceiling).

And heck he could’ve taken us to a SB had the refs not gone crazy with phantom PIs

 

[Badcat]

what do you want out of him?

Seriously , what are we wanting? We arent getting Luck. We arent getting Peyton Manning. NO matter what.

Get reasonable people.

Lamar Light, maybe? Winning the Superbowl SHOULD be the ultimate goal of any program, but for all of the Terry Bradshaw's you also have the Trent Dilfer's and Jeff Hostetler's who did just enough to win it all with a great team around them.

 

[slashsteel]

Lamar Light, maybe? Winning the Superbowl SHOULD be the ultimate goal of any program, but for all of the Terry Bradshaw's you also have the Trent Dilfer's and Jeff Hostetler's who did just enough to win it all with a great team around them.

There was one who even beat the cheats.

 

[insaniti]

what do you want out of him?

Seriously , what are we wanting? We arent getting Luck. We arent getting Peyton Manning. NO matter what.

Get reasonable people.

Even the strongest Fields supporters aren't expecting that. One, he's not that type of QB. Two, because he's not that type of QB. What's realistic, is that he can be like Jackson or Hurts. He can move the offense down the field with his arm or legs. You build the offense right, and you don't need to have a Manning or Luck back there.

Jalen Hurts hasn't thrown for 4,000 yards one time in a season. His highest TD total passing is 23, but for 4 straight years he's had at least 10 rushing TD's. Lamar Jackson has throw for 4,000 yards once. I think that's a realistic expectation for Fields.

 

[slashsteel]

Even the strongest Fields supporters aren't expecting that. One, he's not that type of QB. Two, because he's not that type of QB. What's realistic, is that he can be like Jackson or Hurts. He can move the offense down the field with his arm or legs. You build the offense right, and you don't need to have a Manning or Luck back there.

Jalen Hurts hasn't thrown for 4,000 yards one time in a season. His highest TD total passing is 23, but for 4 straight years he's had at least 10 rushing TD's. Lamar Jackson has throw for 4,000 yards once. I think that's a realistic expectation for Fields.

Hurts is solid at reading the field and throwing accurately. He popped into the 70 percentage in the postseason. I think Jackson for me is the better comparison. I can’t say I am not curious how he would do on the Eagles with that O. But yeah I think he is a tier lower than Hurts…

I will even go as far to say the reason he was benched was due to his back to back 50 some completion games.

The Steelers weren’t liking what they were seeing.

 

[DBS1970]

I think a lot of it is that teams put all their eggs in the QB basket, and give the guy no weapons or O-Line help. Then they throw the guy in to the wolves without him having any time to acclimate to the game ate the professional level.

 

[SteelerSask2]

And usually they are in that draft spot for a reason.

 

[Drink IRON City]

And usually they are in that draft spot for a reason.

Yep, 15 yrs of drafting in the 20s range will not get you top end players. You are getting bottom 1/3 for the round, players.

Browns have proven that even picking top 1/3 players of the round…… you can still fail.

Cowher won the division (or was it made playoffs) his first six years in the NFL and yet kept a VERY competitive team…………… Amazing what Hiring the best sub-coaches and letting them work, can do for you.


Salute the nation

 

[BlitzBurgh7]

There's a reason those teams end up with the 1st overall pick. A lot of QB's are put in situations where success is almost impossible due to poor offensive schemes or personnel for instance Trevor Lawrence had to deal with Urban Myer to start his career lmao.

 

[Black & Gold Bleeder]

Lamar Light, maybe? Winning the Superbowl SHOULD be the ultimate goal of any program, but for all of the Terry Bradshaw's you also have the Trent Dilfer's and Jeff Hostetler's who did just enough to win it all with a great team around them.

true.
Thats what im sayin. He needs some work reading the Defense imo. But he has the tools we need to contend.