Draft 2017 - deljzc

[deljzc]

PRE COMBINE DEFENSIVE LINE NOTES/FILM

Malik McDowell*, Michigan St. (6’6”, 280#)
Raw but extremely physically gifted athlete with unique size/wingspan. Great effort player and really gets after it on every play. Never stops until the whistle. Has frame to gain more weight but still shows surprising “pop” and hold ability when a guard fires out at him. If anything his height allows guards to turn him away from play as he pops up out of stance and starts to lose leverage but even that is a fight until the end. Defensive line coaches are going to love this guy and really has potential to be impact player at next level. Versatile and can play multiple positions and fronts. Round 1
NFL Comparison: J.J. Watt

Jarron Jones, Notre Dame (6’5”, 315#)
Had three tackles for loss in first 6 plays against Miami and just a disruptive force early in game (and 5 TFL total). Great size and frame for multiple fronts and very difficult to handle one-on-one by any inside offensive lineman. Uses reach well and combines quickness and strength. Outstanding at shedding blocks and getting into plays. When he cracks down into gap, quickly disrupts plays. Unique size and athleticism. Stamina could be an issue but there is very little not to like about his potential at the NFL level. Round 1
NFL Comparison: Dontari Poe

Caleb Brantley*, Florida (6’2”, 314#)
There’s a noticeably different “pop” when he explodes into play and looks extremely strong and anchored at point of attack. Very quick hands and rip/shed ability. Can close quickly when breaking free. Very solid prospect with ideal size and played multiple places along Florida’s front. He’s an NFL talent for sure and has everything you look for as a productive interior player at the next level. Round 1-2
NFL Comparison: Malcolm Brown

Chris Wormley, Michigan (6’5”, 300#)
Played as a big 4-3 DE for Michigan (that moved inside at times), but really projects well as a traditional 3-4 DE. Really has nice reach and can engage, react to play, and disengage to make tackles. Solid power in his game but will benefit from NFL full-time conditioning. Can stunt and offers some limited pass rush moves and still might be a decent 5-6 sack guy. Round 2
NFL Comparison: Cameron Heyward

Jonathan Allen, Alabama (6’3”, 283#)
Part of a very good, active, swarming Alabama defense and often played RDE in wide-7 position but not sure that’s his best spot. Is not as explosive as I was expecting and very interested in how he performs at Indianapolis (would not be shocked if it’s underwhelming). Is very active with his hands and fundamentally solid at separating from offensive lineman. A bit jack-of-all-trades, master or none to me and I’m not sure I see the hype of a round 1 prospect. Could be best as a strong side RDE that rotates into a DT position on passing downs. Good at stunts. Some of his sacks came on free looks (see USC game). I’m struggling to see the specialness that would make me say he’s a 1st round talent. Round 2
NFL Comparison: Datone Jones

Charles Walker*, Oklahoma (6’2”, 299#)
Is very slow off the snap for his athletic talents (not sure why). Has natural power to his game and uses lower body very well. Reach is good and can disengage blockers. Not as quick/explosive as you’d like for a premier gap penetrator and looks the part of a nice rotational lineman that is capable of a couple spots and won’t lose to NFL strength. Is not a sack guy and won’t ever get you more than 2-3 a year in cleanup duty. Round 4

Davon Godchaux*, LSU (6’4”, 293#)
I was expecting a more angular, speed athlete based on listed size/weight but he looks like a more traditional DT/NT than a 3-technique. Played predominantly as a 5-tech in LSU’s 3-4 setup but not sure I see the length needed to excel at that. There are some skills to work with as a younger prospect and he has nice hand action, swim and rip moves but I kind of question why he came out into the draft early. I do not see a dynamic talent at this point and see more of a rotation, versatile prospect with a bit more upside than some 4th rounders but also could underperform and not settle in on any one position. Round 4

Elijah Qualls*, Washington (6’1”, 321#)
Very big is seat/thighs and strong at contact when he comes off snap correctly and quick. Is a traditional 1-tech/NT prospect and shows the ability to play 2-gap responsibility and is decent at following play, disengaging blocks and getting involved in tackles. Will likely not be a 3-down player at the next level but is needed beef for run support and short yardage defending. Limited length/height hurts his scouting report but he’s decent at what he does well, which is take up blockers, shed blocks and help in run defense. Round 4

Tanoh Kpassagnon, Villanova (6’7”, 290#)
Freak size/length athlete that is still very raw at football. Ideal 3-4 DE project but has a long way to go with strength, leverage and technique. At this point is just trying to throw guys around in front of him. Will probably redshirt his whole rookie season as he adjusts to NFL power/length but has Adonis build that can easily be 300-310 lbs. without losing any athletic quickness or ability. Very tempting prospect that could be drafted a lot higher. Round 4-5
NFL Comparison: Clifton Geathers

Dalvin Tomlinson, Alabama (6’3”, 307#)
Decent SEC do-it-all tackle prospect destined for rotational work at the next level. Good motor, well coached and won’t be outclassed athletically based on college experience. Nothing really special about tape but has typical NFL characteristics, size, bubble, strength, etc. Plenty of guys like this make it to rosters every year and I’m sure Tomlinson will do the same. Round 5
NFL Comparison: Benny Logan

Larry Ogunjobi, Charlotte (6’3”, 297#)
Played all across front in Charlotte’s 3-4 system. There’s some nice athleticism in him movement skills and can close well to the QB. It’s not someone you’re going to draft high, but there is some long term potential in this prospect to be maybe more than just a rotational cog in your line. Interesting to see how he measured up in Indianapolis. Could surprise and rise up into a mid-rounder. Round 5-6

DeAngelo Brown, Louisville (6’1”, 317#)
Big, squatty NT build but is a bit short and lacks arm length. Does not shed blocks very well when square on a lineman and might not be a 2-gap type player. Is best when downblocking into gap and just using his size/momentum to disrupt plays and clog blockers/running lanes (needs disciplined backers to cover cutbacks). Is a better athlete than you think and moves legs well on stretch plays. Despite size, is actually more of a 4-3 DT than a 3-4 NT or 0-technigue but offensive lineman with long arms are going to give him trouble. Round 6

Ryan Glasgow, Michigan (6’4”, 300#)
Mid-west farmboy type with solid motor and effort but is a tad slow footed. Good off snap, stays low and maintains leverage at contact. Does not quite have the hip action to generate power throughout the play and was often blocked by one man in college (RG or LG - see Ohio State tape). Is not a bad prospect but more of a lunch pail rotational backup at the NFL level and has position versatility. Round 6

Montravius Adams, Auburn (6’4”, 297#)
Very similar to Davon Godchaux and was expecting a quick SEC athlete/penetrator based on his height and weight and you pop the film in and see a slow, plodding 1-technique playing nose tackle. Lacks any elite characteristics on film except maybe good height/length. Might be better as a 3-technique but has some bad habits. Often pitter-pat steps prior to contact (I hate that in prospects). He’s a size athlete still and will get his shot at finding a role but it will be limited. Round 6

Jaleel Johnson, Iowa (6’4”, 310#)
Very mediocre tape and is mostly a size prospect with excellent girth in the belly/thighs to be a rotational DT/NT type. Not very explosive on tape and a lumbering runner when chasing anything. Will likely not perform well at Indianapolis and a bit of a “soft” athlete around the middle. Not my thing and would rather find a proven rotational DT in free agency than use a draft pick on something like this, but that’s me. A rookie contract, rotational, depth guy that will just eat up blockers and do the dirty work. Round 6-7

Tanzel Smart, Tulane (6’1”, 305#)
Short, stocky NT build that has some dancing bear qualities in his footwork. Limited length and explosion is going to hurt his versatility for some schemes. Is not an explosive gap penetrator and mostly just bangs into guys, lots of hand combat and tries to shed/make plays for 60 minutes. Reminds me a bit of Steve McLendon and might find roll as rotational/backup NT with one of the 3-4 teams around the league. Round 6-7

Vincent Taylor*, Oklahoma St. (6’3”, 310#)
No film yet

Nazair Jones*, North Carolina (6’5”, 295#)
No film yet

 

[deljzc]

Note about the defensive line group. This is not nearly as deep or good a defensive line group as last year (which was the best ever probably). The #6 guy on the my list this year might not have even made it into the top-15 last season. That is a big difference in talent (at least so far from the film review).

There are some interesting late round flyers that could be pushed up draft boards a lot if teams reach for need. Small school prospects Kpassagnon (Villanova) and Ogunjobi (Charlotte) could go off the board much faster than traditional small-school kids.

Not a lot of size in this group and a lot of typical rotational types once you get past the top-5.

 

[Litos]

Note about the defensive line group. This is not nearly as deep or good a defensive line group as last year (which was the best ever probably). The #6 guy on the my list this year might not have even made it into the top-15 last season. That is a big difference in talent (at least so far from the film review).

There are some interesting late round flyers that could be pushed up draft boards a lot if teams reach for need. Small school prospects Kpassagnon (Villanova) and Ogunjobi (Charlotte) could go off the board much faster than traditional small-school kids.

Not a lot of size in this group and a lot of typical rotational types once you get past the top-5.

Let's go in drafting order EDGE, S, CB, TE/WR, RB
Get a DT from the FA, they are cheap enough

 

[deljzc]

Let's go in drafting order EDGE, S, CB, TE/WR, RB
Get a DT from the FA, they are cheap enough

I have only WR's left and that's about 30 prospects to watch film on today/this weekend. I will then share the word document and the excel spreadsheet in it's earliest forms.

I am excited about this draft and I'm kind of more into it this year than some others. I plan on taping and watching the combine almost completely this year since I have all my film work done very early. I already peeked a bit at Mike Mayock's position rankings and he and I are pretty far off on some of the round 2 guys, but his list (and a lot of the experts) is known to change a lot between February and April.

I think this is a very good "elite" draft class. The 1A's (top-10 guys) are very good. And I think round 1 in general will be very good.

It's a little more foggy in round 3 right now. And teams that are forced to draft for need in round 2-3 might get an average prospect in very thin positional groupings. The Steelers are normally one of the better teams at shoring up their needs prior to the draft, so as long as they get their board right, I hope we can sneak a good prospect or two in round 3-4 as other teams are forced to pick bad positions.

I agree that could happen with DB's, TE's and maybe an edge player - all positions the Steelers could use some more depth

 

[deljzc]

PRE COMBINE WIDE RECEIVER NOTES/FILM

Mike Williams*, Clemson (6’4”, 210#)
Prototypical #1 receiver with size, length and speed. Very good hands and snatches ball. Significant deep ball skills and will be a consistent 10 TD’s a season type receiver in a good offense. Excellent after the catch, even on screens and is a slippery, quick runner and falls forward. An impossible matchup due to slant/fade skills and is not afraid to go over the middle and take a hit. Reminds me of a splitting clone of A.J. Green and should have that type of immediate success at next level. Round 1
NFL Comparison: A.J. Green

Malichi Dupre*, LSU (6’3”, 190#)
All the parts are there to be really good receiver, but he just needs to kind of grow into his frame. Has NFL caliber change of direction for his size and is a natural speed athlete. Can break well on a slant/crossing route (some of the taller guys just can’t do that). One of the top recruits in the nation but never had that breakout, productive season in LSU’s system. Talent is still very raw but flashes brilliantly sometimes. Can really create separation on balls in the air and will benefit greatly from NFL talent QB’s that learn to trust his ability. Sky is the limit if the work ethic is there. Round 1-2
NFL Comparison: Will Fuller

Corey Davis, Western Michigan (6’3”, 205#)
Very productive, mid-major prospect with good size and physicality for position. True senior that averaged 88 catches, 1450 yards and 15 TD’s since his sophomore season (consistently). Very confident in ability and is physical after catch (although he often holds ball out single-handed like Terrell Owens did a lot). Like Josh Reynolds could benefit from a more structured NFL system and QB play. Probably should have entered draft as junior to get head start on learning curve. Curious about combine/top speed. Round 1-2
NFL Comparison: Terrell Owens

John Ross*, Washington (5’11”, 190#)
Very natural looking speed/quickness athlete. Exceptional body control and can make wow, off-balance catches. Returned kicks and might help special teams. A between the 20’s receiver right now and might struggle to be a consistent 10 TD/year guy in the pros but has all the tools you want as an undersized, fast receiver like Antonio Brown or Odell Beckham. Is probably closer to Brown as an athlete and will have to continue to work on craft. Might take some adjustment to physical coverage. Round 2
NFL Comparison: Antonio Brown

JuJu Smith-Schuster*, USC (6’2”, 215#)
Plays a very physical, big style of receiver. Lots of contact in his routes and will likely transition well to the pros if he can get off the line okay. Curious about top speed and change of direction because getting separation could be a concern at the next level. Body control is very good and is a good hand catcher. Lots of successful receivers like him in the league and he looks the part. Round 2
NFL Comparison: Allen Robinson

Josh Reynolds, Texas A&M (6’4”, 190#)
Really long athlete with #1 WR potential. Tough to scout in Texas A&M’s spread system. Despite lack of bulk is a very willing and effective downfield blocker (uses reach well and moves feet) that coaches are really going to like. Something is missing in his production/route tree but that could be my frustration with system/QB. Timed plays are all over the place (see my analysis of Mahomes) and might benefit from a more structured, rhythm passing attack. Don’t get too enamored with his size/speed. Boom/bust prospect. Round 2-3
NFL Comparison: Justin Hunter

Dede Westbrook, Oklahoma (6’0”, 170#)
Very slight, skinny frame but could have exceptional acceleration and speed. Kind of a DeSean Jackson clone and could have that type of speed at Indianapolis. Because of bulk will never be a good downfield blocker and doubt effort will ever be there. That’s not going to be his game. Has speed to just run past safety coverage and is not afraid to go over middle. Decent catching the ball. Good at WR screens and ramps up to speed quickly. Got a few touches in run game. Only a 2-year participant (no reps freshmen, sophomore season??) and really only came on his senior season with 1500 yards, 19 YPC and 18 TD’s (including one punt return TD). Round 2-3
NFL Comparison: DeSean Jackson

ArDarius Stewart*, Alabama (6’1”, 205#)
Very raw as a route runner and receiver but has elite straight line speed that will get him drafted. Can just get away from defenders if they underestimate him and take bad angles. Limited route runner that plays a small part in Alabama’s offense - mostly screens, sweeps, stop/start 9-routes, etc. Looks a bit like a track athlete. Willing and required blocker for Saban. Tough scout because he’s raw and requires patience and not particularly my thing but his speed is special. Round 2-3
NFL Comparison: Sammie Coates

Chris Godwin*, Penn State (6’1”, 208#)
Looks like a football player and is thick in seat/thighs. Does a lot of dirty work on the field and not afraid of contact. Attempts spectacular catches and never gives up on the ball while it’s live. Should be good athlete even if he’s not a burner speed demon. Good with ball in his hands. Middletown, DE grad. Reminds me a bit of a young Hines Ward and will have to be an effort player like that in the pros. Round 3
NFL Comparison: Randall Cobb

Stacy Coley, Miami (6’1”, 187#)
Smooth athlete and a really good, soft hands catcher. Top speed will matter but can run the entire route tree and is fundamentally sound in his footwork/breaks. Might not be elite but does a lot right and has very good tape. Not a great downfield blocker and can struggle with physical defenders. Round 3
NFL Comparison: Nelson Agholor

Noah Brown*, Ohio State (6’2”, 218#)
Frustrating film and really looks the part getting off the bus. Was a highly touted prospect then had major broken leg and rehabilitation his whole sophomore season. Lacks explosion and quickness and doesn’t quite fight for the ball in the air like you’d like (is that injury related?). Should have stayed in school. Only 33 career college catches so film is very limited. Looks like he should be a Dez Bryant but just doesn’t play like that at all. Combine/interview will really matter and could be all over draft boards. Round 3
NFL Comparison: Jaelen Strong

K.D. Cannon*, Baylor (6’0”, 180#)
Typical WR build and looks the part with good body control and quicks. Combine will matter but shows pretty decent route running ability to all parts of the field. Decent hand catcher and played with very erratic QB play (see Oklahoma game). As with many of these athletic spread prospects has not encountered jams and physical coverage and will have to adjust to NFL cornerback play. But the talent is there to be a good WR. Round 3
NFL Comparison: Stefon Diggs

Curtis Samuel*, Ohio State (5’11”, 195#)
Roll player at OSU that should have stayed in school. Exceptional athlete that doesn’t have enough film to make accurate assessment of talent. Could blow-up combine with exceptional timed 40 and have a wide range of grades. Not a “cradle” running back and not a lot of wiggle in the hole but his natural athleticism and burst works with good OSU blocking. Often lined up in slot as WR and could see switch to a WR/RB hybrid at next level. Hard evaluation and eye of the beholder type player. Some team might fall in love with his skill set and recruiting status and draft very high. Round 3-4
NFL Comparison: Percy Harvin

Cooper Kupp, Eastern Washington (6’2”, 210#)
Small-school possession receiver that probably isn’t going to wow you at the combine (although he ramps up to top speed okay and could have decent 40-yard dash). Ideal west-coast receiver. Played a majority of his snaps as a big possession slot receiver and isn’t afraid to play the middle of the field. Very productive in college to all parts of the field. Solid build, takes hits and protects ball. Willing and able downfield blocker. Good height for red zone work and never gives up on a catch. Round 3-4
NFL Comparison: Muhammed Sanu

Ryan Switzer, North Carolina (5’10”, 185#)
Undersized, jitterbug slot receiver that excels with yards after catch on screens and underneath routes. A premier punt returner that led the FBS as a true freshman with 20 yard average and 5 returns for TD’s. While an easy comparison, he the same exact player as Wes Welker including almost identical production in college (Welker still holds the record 8 punt returns for TD’s which Switzer missed by one). A multi-sport athlete with point guard, sprints and long jump on his high school resume. Will never be an outside the numbers #1 receiver but for the right system could excel at slot duties and punt returns and be a very productive player. Round 3-4
NFL Comparison: Wes Welker

Carlos Henderson*, Louisiana Tech (5’11”, 191#)
Does not look like anything special but has insane knack of making people miss after the catch and is exceptional and picking up chunks of yards in open field. A very good kick returner (2nd in FBS). Sets up blocks and generated missed tackles often. Good at WR screens and can turn nothing into something (see Western Kentucky tape). As a receiver is adequate but nothing really super special and is destined to a #2/#3 role on a team. Will definitely find role in NFL as returner and gadget player and on WR screens and just enough in pass game downfield. Round 4
NFL Comparison: Andre Roberts

Artavis Scott*, Clemson (5’11”, 190#)
Kind of a do-it-all beneficiary on a very good Clemson team and was surrounded by lots of talent. Returned kicks/punts, did some designed runs/sweeps, got some easy looks in coverage based on spread system. Questionable top speed and looks like a 4.5 guy on tape. Might be maxed out as a talent and what you see is what you get. Very similar to Carlos Henderson evaluation and might come down to speed/combine/interview between the two prospects. Round 4
NFL Comparison: Bruce Ellington

Isaiah Ford*, Virginia Tech (6’2”, 190#)
Is a very raw player (and probably should have stayed in school). Long legged prospect with long strides and ramps up to speed. Might struggle with press coverage and needs to gain weight/functional strength. Lots of 9-routes and balls just thrown up for him to go after but is not elite and not quite the hand catcher/ball snatcher you’d like him to be. Technically needs a lot of work in game and could frustrate veteran QB’s on mental acuity early in career. There’s some talent to work with but will take some time to develop. Round 4-5

Kenny Golladay, Northern Illinois (6’4”, 215#)
Played in a run-first offense and did a lot of blocking. A tall, straight line athlete that could really be fast as Indy. Saw an extra gear when ball is in air on fly routes. Is a bit awkward looking on change of direction stuff and his footwork isn’t great (but it looks like he tries). Good effort player. He’s kind of a project, but if you like to throw it up 4-5 times a game deep looking for flags and big plays, he’s not a bad guy for your roster. Round 5

Darreus Rogers, USC (6’1”, 215#)
Not a bad mid-round prospect that seems willing to do the little work. Willing blocker and played #2/#3 receiver for USC in the shadow of Smith-Shuster. Decent body control and hands but I doubt will test off-the-charts. More of a 4.5 guy on film. Looks like a good worker and will have to make his mark that way at the next level including special teams. High floor, low ceiling kind of guy. Round 5-6
NFL Comparison: Rishard Matthews

Isaiah Jones, East Carolina (6’1”, 197#)
Angular, good looking build with long arms/legs. Limited in college due to QB performance and did most of his work on underneath routes and crosses. Insane production at mid-major school (FBS record 400 catches, 158 catches as senior) but still a career 10.7 YPC, only 23 TD’s and a team that got worse each of his seasons (10-3 to 3-9). Father (LB Robert Jones) and uncle (QB Jeff Blake) played in the NFL. Difficult to see how be projects at next level and don’t be fooled by production. Is a limited WR unless he shows something special at combine. Round 5-6
NFL Comparison: Robert Woods

Jalen Robinette, Air Force (6’4”, 220#)
A step slow to be an elite prospect but has very good size for position and is not afraid of the middle of the field. Will not run away or create a ton of separation vs. NFL corners but fights hard for ball. Could be a potential TE convert since he played a lot of slot receiver and if he can bulk up and embrace blocking. Round 6
NFL Comparison: Niles Paul

Amara Darboh, Michigan (6’2”, 215#)
Is not an explosive athlete and is a bit part in Michigan’s offense. Kind of a “zone sitter” and isn’t much of a threat downfield. Not a natural hands catcher and often catches against body. More of a possession receiver type and rub route guy which are not bad to have but not sure you need to spend much in the draft on them. Round 6

Josh Malone*, Tennessee (6’3”, 200#)
Is a bit of a slow starter off the line and isn’t quite an explosive athlete. I think press coverage is really going to affect him at the next level. Is a bit top heavy and can get run off his routes. I don’t think he should have left early and needed a year to improve athleticism and technical aspects of game. Round 6

Travis Rudolph*, Florida St. (6’1”, 189#)
Another questionable early entry to me. Does not show a lot of elite qualities on tape although he could time very well in the 40 at Indianapolis. Maybe a straight line speed athlete because he doesn’t show much body control or catching ability on film. Not a lot of wiggle or great production in run-first FSU offense. Not a lot of improvement between sophomore and junior seasons and could be what he is. Won’t help much in special teams and does not return kicks/punts. Round 6

Taywan Taylor, Western Kentucky (6’1”, 195#)
Nothing spectacular but flashes decent body control and hands for position. Not the focus of his offense. Interested in combine, particularly change of direction because he could be very good at that and worth a look in the later rounds. Has a lot of tools to work but if he’s not dominant at a mid-major… Reminds me a lot of the late round guys the Steelers sometimes have success with. Round 6-7

 

[deljzc]

So I have scouted/watched film on most of who (right now) has a 6th round grade or higher. I'm sure some will be added along the way.

Here is the start of the spreadsheet as I have grouped everyone with a round 1, round 1-2, round 2, round 2-3, round 3, round 3-4 and round 4 grade together (but not sorted yet). Remember QB's are on a separate sheet.

Now I start to look around the internet and see what people are saying about the prospects. I'm curious about NFL.com, Mayock, Walter's Football, Football Futures, NFL Draft Scout, Draft Countdown just to name a few. You guys are welcome to start disagreeing with me now and certainly tell me if you think I missed anyone or should watch some film on additional prospects.

All the size/speed data will get filled in over the Combine and Pro Day calendar (March-April).

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Xc7tUaq7tx0S7_-p6AKMbckw6YDJBfcL82a_ENFhYVc/edit?usp=sharing

 

[AggieSteel]

Really appreciate all the work you've put in on this.. I love the draft and evaluating prospects. Maybe one day I'll actually set aside time to do it up properly like you lol

 

[deljzc]

A question I often get during this process is the numbers don't add up. And that is true on purpose.

I have only 16 1st round grades on prospects and 96 total for everything 4th round and higher (not counting QB's). That is very typical with how this process starts and it might not balance out ever. I am picky in my evaluation process and the goal while watching tape is never to create the right number of 1st round talents because the draft just happens to have 32 picks.

And we all know how weird the first rounds of drafts can end up with some players being selected from seemingly out in left field. It happens.

Also of note of the 96 non-quarterback prospects with round 4 grades or higher, 45 are underclassman.

 

[FordFairLane]

So I have scouted/watched film on most of who (right now) has a 6th round grade or higher. I'm sure some will be added along the way.

Here is the start of the spreadsheet as I have grouped everyone with a round 1, round 1-2, round 2, round 2-3, round 3, round 3-4 and round 4 grade together (but not sorted yet). Remember QB's are on a separate sheet.

Now I start to look around the internet and see what people are saying about the prospects. I'm curious about NFL.com, Mayock, Walter's Football, Football Futures, NFL Draft Scout, Draft Countdown just to name a few. You guys are welcome to start disagreeing with me now and certainly tell me if you think I missed anyone or should watch some film on additional prospects.

All the size/speed data will get filled in over the Combine and Pro Day calendar (March-April).

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Xc7tUaq7tx0S7_-p6AKMbckw6YDJBfcL82a_ENFhYVc/edit?usp=sharing

Looking at your big board my only "disagreement" and I use that word liberally as obviously rankings are opinion based, would be TJ Watt. Now I see him on a lot of first round boards and I am in agreement he'd have to wow a little to go that high at the combine and pro day but I have him as a solid second round pick and I could see him sneaking into late round one to the Packers or Steelers depending on who is left when either draft as both have a need at rush OLB.

I like that you have Kareem Hunt high. I don't think he goes that early based on the de-value of the RB position but I think he'd be a nice safety net for Bell if we tag him and are worried about a long term deal.

 

[obxsteeler]

A question I often get during this process is the numbers don't add up. And that is true on purpose.

I have only 16 1st round grades on prospects and 96 total for everything 4th round and higher (not counting QB's). That is very typical with how this process starts and it might not balance out ever. I am picky in my evaluation process and the goal while watching tape is never to create the right number of 1st round talents because the draft just happens to have 32 picks.

And we all know how weird the first rounds of drafts can end up with some players being selected from seemingly out in left field. It happens.

Also of note of the 96 non-quarterback prospects with round 4 grades or higher, 45 are underclassman.

Thanks again for a great job. Only one I would like you to recheck is Hasson Reddick of Temple. Think you looked at him as an edge rusher and I agree he is too small. But he caught my eye in the SR Bowl inside where he could spell Timmons now or replace him if God forbid he does leave.

 

[deljzc]

Draft Scout is my #1 source of grades and combine/pro day information. They seem to be the best year-in/year-out with predicting what is going on. They just updated their rankings on positions with all the underclassmen.

First, I have missed a few prospects (this was to be expected). List with where Draft Scout currently has them ranked.

QB: Jarod Evans*, Virginia Tech (round 5-6)
RB: Marlon Mack*, USF (round 3-4); Devine Reading, Indiana (round 5-6)
TE: Adam Shaheen*, Ashland (round 5); Billy Brown, Shepherd (round 6)
WR: Chad Hansen*, California (round 3); Trent Taylor, LA Tech (round 5-6)
OT: Taylor Moton, W. Michigan (round 2); J.J. Dielman, Utah (round 3-4); Storm Norton, Toledo (round 5-6)
OG/C: Jessamen Dunker, Tennessee St. (round 5-6)

Edge: Derek Rivers, Youngstown St. (round 3); Carroll Phillips, Illinois (round 4-5); Trey Hendrickson, Florida Atlantic (round 4-5)
DT: Carlos Watkins, Clemson (round 2); Vincent Taylor*, Okla St. (round 3-4); Nazir Jones*, North Carolina (round 4-5); Eddie Vanderdoes, UCLA (round 5)
LB: Elijah Lee*, Kansas St (round 3-4); Conner Harris, Lindenwood (round 4); Jayvon Brown, UCLA (round 6)
S: Josh Jones*, NC State (round 4); John Johnson, Boston College (round 5); Jadar Johnson, Clemson (round 5-6)
CB: Howard Wilson*, Houston (round 3-4)

So that is 25 more players I should scout if I want to be fairly complete at this point in the game before the Combine.

Of the big discrepancies between my rankings and Draft Scout are as follows. And these all could probably a good once over and discussion with you guys and what you see vs. what I see and why the drastic difference. I wonder if some War Rooms have big discrepancies like this.

1. Tak McKinley, Edge, UCLA - Round 6 vs. Round 1
2. Solomon Thomas, Edge, Stanford - Round 4-5 vs. Round 1
3. Demarcus Walker, Edge, FSU - Round 5 vs. Round 2
4. Hassan Reddick, Edge/LB?, Temple - Round 6-7 vs. Round 1-2

1. Forrest Lamp, OT/OG, W. Kentucky - Round 6 vs. Round 1-2
2. Ethan Pocic, C/OL, LSU - Round 5-6 vs. Round 2
3. Pat Elflein, C/OG, OSU - Round 5 vs. Round 2-3
4. Dion Dawkins, OT/OG, Temple - Round 6 vs. Round 2
5. Adam Bisnowaty, OT, Pitt - Round 6-7 vs. Round 3

1. Alvin Kamara, RB, Tenn - Round 4-5 vs. Round 2

1. Evan Engram, TE, Miss - Round 4-5 vs. Round 2

1. Patrick Mahomes, QB, Texas Tech - Round 6 vs. Round 2-3

1. Isaiah Ford, WR, VT - Round 4-5 vs. Round 2-3
2. Isaiah Jones, WR, East Carolina - Round 5-6 vs. Round 3
3. Amare Darboh, WR, Michigan - Round 6 vs. Round 2-3
4. Curtis Samuel, WR/RB, OSU - Round 3-4 vs. Round 1-2

1. Larry Ogunjobi, DT, Charlotte - Round 5-6 vs. Round 2-3
2. Montravius Adams, DT, Auburn - Round 6 vs. Round 2-3
3. Jaleel Johnson, DT, Iowa - Round 6-7 vs. Round 3
4. Dalvin Tomlinson, DT, Alabama - Round 5 vs. Round 2-3

1. Duke Riley, LB, LSU - Round 5 vs. Round 2-3
2. Zach Cunningham, LB, Vanderbilt - Round 3 vs. Round 1

1. Obi Melifonwu, SS, UCONN - Round 6 vs. Round 2

1. Jordan Lewis, CB, Michigan - Round 5 vs. Round 1-2
2. Kevin King, CB, Washington - Round 4-5 vs. Round 2-3
3. Sidney Jones, CB, Washington - Round 4 vs. Round 1
4. Chidobe Awuzie, CB, Colorado - Round 6 vs. Round 2-3

 

[FordFairLane]

I am a bit higher Dawuane Smoot as well. He's definitely an undersized edge rusher who will have to stand up to earn a check at the next level. But he shows the quickness and agility to get the edge and the ability to dip. He needs a better inside move and hit the weight room to gain functional strength but I think he's a solid 4th (IMHO).

 

[deljzc]

Thanks again for a great job. Only one I would like you to recheck is Hasson Reddick of Temple. Think you looked at him as an edge rusher and I agree he is too small. But he caught my eye in the SR Bowl inside where he could spell Timmons now or replace him if God forbid he does leave.

This is an unusual draft analysis for me because so many of the top prospects (first 3 rounds) seem to be from mid-major or Div. II programs that are expected to just switch positions like it's nothing.

You look at a lot of the guys I scouted that I'm "wrong" on (at least now). I was watching their tape as a position they aren't going to play in the pros and I'm watching them against what I consider inferior competition. I think there is a lot of risk pushing those two issues aside for a round 2 player. And when you see Zach Cunningham, Dion Dawkins, Forrest Lamp, Hassan Reddick, Obi Melifonwu... these guys are now 1st round, 2nd rounders?

We will see....

 

[SteelerFan448]

2. Solomon Fields, Edge, Stanford - Round 4-5 vs. Round 1

Solomon Thomas? I think his stock rose for many analysts after the Sun Bowl. He was an absolute monster making plays all over the field, particularly during crunch time.

 

[deljzc]

Solomon Thomas? I think his stock rose for many analysts after the Sun Bowl. He was an absolute monster making plays all over the field, particularly during crunch time.

Here's that game vs. UNC



It's an interesting film to watch. There's a lot to talk about. First, I still contend Thomas is very undersized and I don't quite know what position he translates to at the next level. He is listed at 6'-3", 273lbs. And I'm not sure he has the frame to get that much bigger, agree? He is a redshirt sophomore so maybe he could get fatter/bigger in the butt/thighs and go up to 290#? Do you see Aaron Donald potential as a DT? Is he that quick/strong like Donald?

Second. The play of the RG and RT in this game from UNC is horrific. Watch #71 at marks 7:20 and 7:43. The guy literally just falls down. The play at 8:08 finally does it in for #71 and he gets PULLED.... from a bowl game. Think about how awful you have to be in order for that to happen. At that point of the game, halfway through the 3rd quarter, UNC has 7 points.

UNC starts scoring points but I agree Thomas is just as disruptive against the backup #51. He abuses him on a few plays for sure.

There are a lot of similarities with Thomas and Jonathan Allen from Alabama. Everyone seems to love their college production but I am really struggling with their size/frame/position fit at the next level. Maybe I'm wrong but when I look back over the last decade of prospects, there are not many "tweener DE/DT" hybrids that are under 6'-3", under 280 lbs., average reach and run over a 4.80 that become impact players.

Mario Edwards was like this out of Florida State a few years ago. Adrian Clayborn was a highly touted prospect form Iowa back in 2011. He measured 6025, 281# and ran a 4.85 and considered a productive DE/DT hybrid player. If you go back even further Ray McDonald looks like this type as well. He was 6033, 276#, ran a 4.88 at his pro day and was a DE/DT hybrid.

You would be hard pressed to find anyone else that doesn't also "stand up". And if you watch Thomas' tape you can not tell me he can turn into a stand up player.

I fully agree maybe my rankings are off on him. When you factor how inexperienced he is as a redshirt sophomore, that tape is pretty damn good. And watching him on the strong side against RT's and RG's is probably where he settles in at the pro level, playing a traditional strong side 4-3 DE that might rotate inside on rush downs. But RT's in the NFL are going to be a hell of lot better than #71 and #51 he played against UNC and I'm not sure I see a lot of inherited freak athletic ability to fall back on when that happens. He is just limited to me by his size/length/frame and looks like 275# to 280# is where he is always going to be.

 

[Slaine]

Draft Scout is my #1 source of grades and combine/pro day information. They seem to be the best year-in/year-out with predicting what is going on. They just updated their rankings on positions with all the underclassmen.

First, I have missed a few prospects (this was to be expected). List with where Draft Scout currently has them ranked.

QB: Jarod Evans*, Virginia Tech (round 5-6)
RB: Marlon Mack*, USF (round 3-4); Devine Reading, Indiana (round 5-6)
TE: Adam Shaheen*, Ashland (round 5); Billy Brown, Shepherd (round 6)
WR: Chad Hansen*, California (round 3); Trent Taylor, LA Tech (round 5-6)
OT: Taylor Moton, W. Michigan (round 2); J.J. Dielman, Utah (round 3-4); Storm Norton, Toledo (round 5-6)
OG/C: Jessamen Dunker, Tennessee St. (round 5-6)

Edge: Derek Rivers, Youngstown St. (round 3); Carroll Phillips, Illinois (round 4-5); Trey Hendrickson, Florida Atlantic (round 4-5)
DT: Carlos Watkins, Clemson (round 2); Vincent Taylor*, Okla St. (round 3-4); Nazir Jones*, North Carolina (round 4-5); Eddie Vanderdoes, UCLA (round 5)
LB: Elijah Lee*, Kansas St (round 3-4); Conner Harris, Lindenwood (round 4); Jayvon Brown, UCLA (round 6)
S: Josh Jones*, NC State (round 4); John Johnson, Boston College (round 5); Jadar Johnson, Clemson (round 5-6)
CB: Howard Wilson*, Houston (round 3-4)

So that is 25 more players I should scout if I want to be fairly complete at this point in the game before the Combine.

Of the big discrepancies between my rankings and Draft Scout are as follows. And these all could probably a good once over and discussion with you guys and what you see vs. what I see and why the drastic difference.

Just wondering whether the difference is that draft scout are putting people in the 1st round because they know that while they may not be a 1st rounder on talent someone will reach for them...? Or do they use your logic that someone is a 1st round "talent" rather than one of 32 people that happen to be selected in the 1st.

Sadly I can't add to the discussion as I don't see enough college football but I rely on opinions like yours to look at prospects in more detail nearer draft time so thank you for the work.

 

[deljzc]

I just realized Alabama is almost certainly going to have six first round picks this year. And possibly 10 in the top-100 (of which seven are defensive players).

Tim Williams, OLB
Rueben Foster, LB
Marlon Humphrey, CB
Jonathan Allen, DE/DT
O.J. Howard, TE
Cam Robinson, OT
ArDarius Stewart, WR
Ryan Anderson, OLB/DE
Eddie Jackson, FS
Dalvin Tomlinson, DT

Should be very similar to how Ohio State did in 2016 draft (5 players in the 1st round and 11 players in the top 102)

 

[obxsteeler]

I just realized Alabama is almost certainly going to have six first round picks this year. And possibly 10 in the top-100 (of which seven are defensive players).

Tim Williams, OLB
Rueben Foster, LB
Marlon Humphrey, CB
Jonathan Allen, DE/DT
O.J. Howard, TE
Cam Robinson, OT
ArDarius Stewart, WR
Ryan Anderson, OLB/DE
Eddie Jackson, FS
Dalvin Tomlinson, DT

Should be very similar to how Ohio State did in 2016 draft (5 players in the 1st round and 11 players in the top 102)

We probably need to wonder how many of these players look better because of the level of people around them. Might be the difference between starters and stars. Also think services like Draft Scout have the advantage of talking to coaches who work with some of these players in all-star games making it easier to project postion changes. But you will still see the "pro's" with as big of misses as you have- even with much more info.

 

[deljzc]

We probably need to wonder how many of these players look better because of the level of people around them. Might be the difference between starters and stars. Also think services like Draft Scout have the advantage of talking to coaches who work with some of these players in all-star games making it easier to project postion changes. But you will still see the "pro's" with as big of misses as you have- even with much more info.

I made some comments about that when I reviewed Ryan Anderson's film. That defense was stacked.

And they are stocking the cupboard as well. Supposedly they have one of the best recruiting classes ever:

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/...-recruiting-meet-the-crimson-tides-2017-class

 

[F83]

Smith or Conner as Bell's back up.

 

[Steeltime]

Interesting film on Thomas. Couple things I don't like about him:

1. He constantly lines up offsides.
2. He is in the backfield on passing downs numerous times, and yet never seems to be able to actually get to the QB. Constantly running by him, past him, whiffing on a sack.

 

[deljzc]

Interesting film on Thomas. Couple things I don't like about him:

1. He constantly lines up offsides.
2. He is in the backfield on passing downs numerous times, and yet never seems to be able to actually get to the QB. Constantly running by him, past him, whiffing on a sack.

Some of that might have to do with Trabinski's athleticism as well. That wasn't the best game by a guy I have as the #1 QB in this draft. He made some very bad throws and for 2 1/2 quarters was below the line. But he was under pressure like crazy due in large part to how bad the right side of his offensive line played. I mean if that's a Steelers game, we wouldn't be talking about anything but them. We wouldn't say how great Thomas is, we would be bitching about getting better offensive linemen.

I'm editing my big board now quite a bit as I've been reading up on prospects. Lance Zeirlein has almost all the prospects evaluated over at NFL.com and NFL Draft Scout (as mentioned) released their initial round grades and rankings.

The comparisons you are getting about Thomas are two: Justin Smith and Michael Bennett. Now Justin Smith ran like a 4.70 back in 2001 as a 6'-4", 270 lbs. DE and he transitioned great into the type of player many want Soloman Thomas to become. As far as Bennett, I agree the comparisons are there but Bennett was also UNDRAFTED for the same exact reasons we are talking about with Thomas. For Thomas to be successful, he might need to have a good defense AND a good coach around him that is willing to accept his size restrictions and scheme him into success. I'm just not sure that's worth a top-10 pick (which some are now saying he's headed to).

If he runs a 4.70, all bets are off... he's going top-10, top-15. But if he runs a 4.85 like I suspect he will. If he measures 6030 and has 33" arms (which I am guessing) and weighs 275...... I wouldn't draft him that high.

Note, I love Tim Williams, but as I am investigating his off-field stuff, there are big red flags. I mean you are talking multiple drug test failures at Alabama AND a weapons charge (albeit a minor no-permit type thing). There are rumors he's bordering on Randy Gregory issues and could fall like that in this draft. To me that's a shame because I love his tape (but then, I loved Randy Gregory's tape too, so....)

 

[deljzc]

I wish TMC were still around. Not sure he does his draft stuff anymore, but I am done early enough with my film work that I wish he were here to discuss the prospects in detail like we used to. I was always a bit late to his party.

 

[ark steel]

I wish TMC were still around. Not sure he does his draft stuff anymore, but I am done early enough with my film work that I wish he were here to discuss the prospects in detail like we used to. I was always a bit late to his party.

he was Steel Vanguard until ******* banned him!!!

 

[Litos]

he was Steel Vanguard until ******* banned him!!!

Wtf happened?