Agree...nice post
Cam Newton signs five-year, $103.8 million extension with Carolina Panthers
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Agree...nice post
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If you take out drops then you logically should take out the exceptional catches on poorly thrown balls, right? It's the same thing.
If you want to analyze quarterbacks to that degree (and I'm sure some offensive coordinators do) then how come you started this conversation with two of the most meaningless statistics around in completion % and old school QB rating, which doesn't even take into account fumbles lost, sacks and a whole slew of stuff you want to measure. How are you so enlightened that Newton isn't a franchise QB?
You're creating a double standard. First you say he's not because of completion %, then debate me when I ask how come the offense he is in charge of scores more than the Steelers? I think scoring points by an offense is a hell of lot more important for a QB than completion percentage. And neither is looked at in a vacuum anyhow.
If you watched a lot of Miami games I think you'd completely agree Tannehill made HUGE improvements this season. That the Miami offense is starting to look like it knows what it is doing now. That's a LOT of what quarterbacking is to me. When things start to run smooth and efficient and the check with mes and audibles start working (instead of failing), that's mostly on the QB. I think it's one of the main reasons they decided to pay him this off-season.
I started this by saying my concern with Newton isn't whether he's a franchise QB or not. He probably is under a very broad definition, but my concern is he has declined in a lot of key statistics over his 4 years in the league and this past year was his worst season yet (by most comprehensive analysis). You hate entering a contract year on a down slide.
But the kid is only 26. He played some good football in the past. He has a .500 record, has stayed healthy (only missing 2 games in 4 seasons) and the offense he runs has been mostly in the top-3rd in scoring efficiency. You can over analyze all the stats you want but I suspect Carolina is okay with that after being 2-14 and things looking pretty bleak back in 2010. They scored 12.2 points per game that year and went to 25.4 points per game in Newton's first season. Sure that has nothing to do with Newton. He's completely replaceable with any guy off the waiver wire.
Newton is near the top of the middle 10 QBs in the league. He seems to be a marketable high character guy. Because of changes in the CBA he was the worst paid #1 overall pick since about 1996, so I'm sure this is a bit of a makeup deal. It's not really his fault that Carolina's old GM tanked their cap for half a decade. Don't see the exact cap figures but I assume they will pick up space for this season and the next two vs letting him play out his option and then double franchising him.
I like watching him play. Without checking the analytics I'd assume he's near the top of that Tannehill, Ryan, Flacco, Dalton, Kaepernick strata of QBs and all of those guys are paid within a few mil of him. He's been fairly good, 10 teams would kill to have him.
I like watching him play. Without checking the analytics I'd assume he's near the top of that Tannehill, Ryan, Flacco, Dalton, Kaepernick strata of QBs and all of those guys are paid within a few mil of him. He's been fairly good, 10 teams would kill to have him.
According to the article he has done a few things for his team.
Read more here: http://www.charlotteobserver.com/sports/nfl/carolina-panthers/article22863282.html#storylink=cpy
It seems that this kid could amount to something special. He has been productive and looks like he would be worth building a team around. Not all quarterbacks are able to have great records all the time, how many times did Ben have seasons that were 8 and 8 or worse? None of us would say Ben was a bad qb and many think he will still be a top tier guy for years to come. As hard as it is to find a guy that can win games for the team at the position of QB if you finally have a shot at one of these guys you have to take it. It will likely be a good move for Carolina in the big scheme of things and will have things locked up for a number of years.
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Anyone who lived through the Stoudt-Malone-Woodley-Blackledge-Brister-O'Donnell-Miller-Tomczack-Stewart-Graham-Maddox era, and can't understand why teams like the Rats, Cowboys, Panthers, and Dolphins are loathe to let decent qbs walk, are just hopeless. The league is, and always has been, full of horrible qbs. When you have one who is actually decent, you better be careful before you toss him aside. Did you watch the Rats before Flacco got there? Have you been watching Cleveland since they came back? I sure wish we had had a Flacco, or even a Cam, during the 80's, and 90's. Hell, losing even a mediocrity like O'Donnell set the team back. When you get a decent qb, you have to keep him, unless you can somehow luck into a better one. It doesn't happen very often. The qbs, and their agents know this, thus all halfway decent qbs are going to get paid.
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I'm not going through all of this again. Your QB ranking has nothing to do with being a QB. You should call it an offensive ranking. I understand you think scoring is more important but that leaves out a ton of other variables. Which is fine if you are talking about "offense" and not Qbs.
I think Ben is one of the best in the league regardless of your PPP scores that say Newton was better than Ben 3 out of 4 years. You seriously think that?
Also how do you know Cam is declining? Maybe his RB isn't as good? Maybe his FG kicker isn't as good? Maybe the OL isn't as good?
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Anymore I think teams are paying to not have a completely unproven or journeyman QB.
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Newton is the 8th to 12th best QB in the game. Carolina hit the panic button. When a team pays a merely good quarterback elite type of money they assure themselves to be mediocre and limit their cap space.
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maybe that's not elite kind of money anymore
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What would you do? Let him walk into free agency?
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If you have one of the top 12 QB's, you MUST keep him, IMO, unless there is virtually no difference between him and whoever is around 20th. If you don't, you will end up with the guy at 20th and trying for years to find another top 12 QB.
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Honestly, I fully expect Luck gets somewhere around $100mm guaranteed. Would be shocked if it didnt happen.
People have to imagine what the top 7 QB's will look like in 5 years. Maybe ARod is still there, but the other guys (Ben, Brady, Peyton, Brees) will either be on their way out or already there. So you are left with:
1.)Luck
2.) Wilson
3.)ARod
4.)?
5.)?
These guys are only 26, so we have no idea what happens when the Newton's/Tanny's hit their stride. But if you can lock up a potential top 5-7 QB, you have to do it. IMO here is where I see the top 7 Qb's for the 2020 season:
1.)Luck
2.) Wilson
3.) Rodgers
4.)Cam
5.)Tanny
6.) Matt Ryan/Stafford
7.)Teddy/Carr
8.) Dalton
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No. Points per possession only account for about 22% of a quarterbacks "score" in my rankings.
And Roethlisberger has a higher DQR the last two seasons vs. Newton (including a very big 103.8 vs. 76.7 this past season). In 2012, they were practically identical in rating (89.9 for Ben, 90.7 for Newton). In 2011, Newton was higher - 95.7 vs. 86.2.
Overall, even though Carolina has scored more points as an offense over the 4-year period, Roethlisberger's 4-year DQR is 91.4 vs. Newton's 4-year DQR is 86.4.
It's not all about PPP.
And as far as "how" Newton is declining, the numbers clearly say he is. He completed 60.0% of his passing his rookie year, that was 58.5% last year. He had 627 "plays" in 2011 vs. 577 plays in 2014. He produced 4741 yards in 2011 vs. 3672 in 2014. He went from 35 touchdowns in 2011 to 23 touchdowns in 2014. He stayed the same in turnover rate (19 turnovers in 2011 vs. 17 turnovers in 2014). And his big plays produced are way down (71 vs. 55) while his sacks taken are up (35 vs. 38).
What part of those things aren't measuring a quarterback? What the hell do you want to measure?
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Of quarterbacks with 4 seasons or more to evaluate, I'd say Newton right around top-10.
If you add the guys with only 3 seasons, you put R. Wilson and A. Luck ahead of him. So that makes him top-12.
He is certainly in a group with E. Manning, J. Flacco, C. Kapernick and M. Stafford as guys who got paid and are his equals in production. Most everyone "above him" on the list are older, more established veterans that have been able to bounce back from adversity, have experienced changes in personnel, and still produce (P. Manning, A. Rogers, B. Roethlisberger, T. Brady, D. Brees, T. Romo, P. Rivers, M. Ryan).
I still don't know where to put Alex Smith, Carson Palmer, Ryan Tannehill, S. Bradford and Andy Dalton or how confident to be in any of those guys. They are right on the "top-15" bubble. I would take Newton above those five for sure.
The rest are replaceable-level QB's right now that probably should NOT get paid: Fitzpatrick, Sanchez, Foles, Hoyer, Griffin, Cutler, McCown, Orton. I used to have Cutler in the "I don't know" group, but he sucks. I've given up on him.
OR
Rookies/2nd Year Players still under evaluation: T. Bridgewater, Z. Mettenberger, G. Smith, D. Carr, B. Bortles, M. Mariota, J. Winston.
That's it. That's all there is.
If you add the guys with only 3 seasons, you put R. Wilson and A. Luck ahead of him. So that makes him top-12.
He is certainly in a group with E. Manning, J. Flacco, C. Kapernick and M. Stafford as guys who got paid and are his equals in production. Most everyone "above him" on the list are older, more established veterans that have been able to bounce back from adversity, have experienced changes in personnel, and still produce (P. Manning, A. Rogers, B. Roethlisberger, T. Brady, D. Brees, T. Romo, P. Rivers, M. Ryan).
I still don't know where to put Alex Smith, Carson Palmer, Ryan Tannehill, S. Bradford and Andy Dalton or how confident to be in any of those guys. They are right on the "top-15" bubble. I would take Newton above those five for sure.
The rest are replaceable-level QB's right now that probably should NOT get paid: Fitzpatrick, Sanchez, Foles, Hoyer, Griffin, Cutler, McCown, Orton. I used to have Cutler in the "I don't know" group, but he sucks. I've given up on him.
OR
Rookies/2nd Year Players still under evaluation: T. Bridgewater, Z. Mettenberger, G. Smith, D. Carr, B. Bortles, M. Mariota, J. Winston.
That's it. That's all there is.
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My question to you Del-
It appears that there is a HUGE premium to getting solid QB play while these guys are still under the rookie contracts. Guys like Wilson, Luck, Newton and C.Kaep have all outplayed their contracts.
But then take a team like the Pats with Brady and Jimmy G (or us in 3 years). Every year that he sits on the bench, that rookie premium slowly burns away. Then in 3 years, the Pats could have another Matt Cassell situation. Which means paying a huge contract for someone with a very limited track record, without truly capitalizing on his rookie discount.
In other words, is it wiser:
1.) To look for Ben's replacement in the next year or two- have him sit and learn on the bench. But sacrifice that rookie discount?
2.) Wait until year 4 or 5- have him sit maybe a year at most before taking the reins?
It appears that there is a HUGE premium to getting solid QB play while these guys are still under the rookie contracts. Guys like Wilson, Luck, Newton and C.Kaep have all outplayed their contracts.
But then take a team like the Pats with Brady and Jimmy G (or us in 3 years). Every year that he sits on the bench, that rookie premium slowly burns away. Then in 3 years, the Pats could have another Matt Cassell situation. Which means paying a huge contract for someone with a very limited track record, without truly capitalizing on his rookie discount.
In other words, is it wiser:
1.) To look for Ben's replacement in the next year or two- have him sit and learn on the bench. But sacrifice that rookie discount?
2.) Wait until year 4 or 5- have him sit maybe a year at most before taking the reins?
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I've been against drafting quarterbacks in this organization for a while. I think our coaching staff is WAY too conservative to be in the quarterback development business and isn't willing to "showcase" young talent in the correct way to turn a 4th or 5th round pick into an asset you can trade for a higher return.
No matter who they draft, they end up being 3rd string because the GM and coaching staff seem to greatly like having a veteran as a backup to Roethlisberger. So I really don't know why we bother with the Omar Jacobs, Dennis Dixon or Landry Jones picks. I think all those picks are blown lottery tickets. No chance.
That said, I agree with you there has to be a decision on HOW we want to transition away from Roethlisberger but with his new contract extension, I don't think we really need to talk about that seriously for at least another 3 seasons.
I also agree with you the M.O. of drafting a quarterback to sit and learn seems outdated with the rookie salary scale vs. salary cap. It's also becoming less feasible because there seem to be less really late round QB's that pan out into true top-10 caliber players (Russell Wilson is probably the exception).
Given that, I do think the best method of getting a quarterback is get a kid in the first round that has the skills you like and use all your cap room to put a decent team around him that is well coached can run the football and plays defense okay and play him early. Hope he works out under fire.
The trick is to not panic and FORCE the pick the year you need it if the talent isn't there that you like. It's one of the reasons I like Chip Kelly so far. Some coaches would come into Philadelphia and see a roster of Vick and Foles (both selected by the previous regime) and force a high QB draft pick regardless of who it is and stick with them for 3+ seasons only to see he sucks. He has instead used his picks and cap money to rebuild the roster, won 10 games each year and is finding ways to get productive QB play out of less than perfect QB talent. I'm sure that when the opportunity presents itself, Kelly WILL get a quarterback in the 1st round, but he's going to be sure about him (at least as sure as possible).
I guess what I'm saying is I wouldn't really "plan ahead" too far. I don't know exactly what opportunities are going to present themselves and you want to be ready if/when they do.
When Roethlisberger finally retires we're still going to have a lot of cap issues/dead money to deal with. That's inevitable. And it's hard to find quarterbacks. If there was a tried and true method, I'd be a rich man.
I will finally add this. Of the 15 quarterbacks I mentioned above that are considered "acceptable" to build your team around and invest contracts in:
Five were picks #1 overall (Manning, Manning, Luck, Stafford, Newton)
Two were top-5 (Ryan, Rivers)
Three more were 1st rounders (Roethlisberger, Rogers, Flacco)
Two were 2nd rounders (Brees, Kapernick)
Three were round 3 or later (Wilson, Romo, Brady). And Romo/Brady are aged 34+.
We haven't had a really late round QB "make it" since Romo in 2003 (not drafted). Even Wilson was a 3rd rounder and I'm not sure we're going to see that again for a while.
I think it's becoming 1st round or go home to get your guy. You just have to be correct and not **** up.