Trump’s views on immigration are rooted in a fundamental misunderstanding of immigrant criminality and migration patterns. During a Republican debate in December of last year, Donald Trump declared that “people are pouring across the southern border.” Trump is right that the United States has been a major immigrant destination since the 1960s, but if he is referring to Mexican flows today, he is wrong.
According to sociologists Frank Bean and Gillian Stevens, Mexican migration to the United States is “the largest sustained flow of migrant workers in the contemporary world,” and Mexico is the single largest contributor of migrants to the United States since 1965. But here’s what Trump ignores: Pew’s most recent migration data on Mexico, which shows that more Mexicans are leaving than coming to the United States—reversing a decades-long trend.
The main cause of the trend is family reunification, but this migration back to Mexico is not driven by nostalgia for kin. The reasons behind it are much more complex.
Mexican families have to grapple with hard economic and legal realities, and they often conclude that returning to Mexico is their best option.
One million Mexican migrants and their children left the U.S. for Mexico, while just over 860,000 left Mexico for the United States.
The Pew Report looks at the years between 2009 and 2014. It combines Mexican survey data on the entry of Mexicans and their families—including American children—with U.S. census data on Mexican entries to the United States. The report is designed to overcome the limitations of national statistics that typically ignore departures.
The study shows a net loss of 140,000 Mexican immigrants from the United States. One million Mexican migrants and their children left the U.S. for Mexico, while just over 860,000 left Mexico for the United States.
While this may seem like a desirable outcome from an immigration control perspective, it may signal problems in the U.S. economy. Among other things, it means that the children of Mexican returnees—kids who are U.S. citizens—are leaving the country. U.S. losses may be Mexico’s gain in a world market that rewards multilingual workers.