Midterm predictions

[Coach]

Midterm prediction.

Usually, the party in power loses seats during the midterm election.* The house with massive fluctuations and 2-year terms are harder to predict.*

The Senate a bit easier as the incumbent has been there for 6 years or more, and the states usually go for the incumbent or the state the President carried two years ago in the general election.

How do you see it?

 

[Coach]

I'm going with a Red win, meaning Republicans keep control of the Senate and house, but lose overall seats.

I actually think the Republicans will pick up a seat or two in the Senate but will lose a lot of seats, close to losing the majority in the house. This would be viewed as a strategic win for Trump.
The Senate is more important for Trump. If the Republicans lose the house, Trump sill can pick any judge he wants for the Senate to verify, and will have to make some deals, perhaps infrastructure related to get major bills approved for the Senate to pass.

Should Trump lose both the house and the Senate, he still can get a lot done via executive order as Obama until the next election comes in 2020

In addition, Trump will continue to:

Serve as commander in chief
Appoints federal officials
Makes treaties
Grants pardons
Makes federal budgets

 

[CharlesDavenport]

I'd feel a lot better about it if Trump hadn't taken that empty suit Sessions out of the Senate. That was a mistake on every level. Anyway, I predict that we will hold the Senate majority and lose seats in the House but keep a slim majority. I am hoping for a second Trump term with a lot of the swamp cleared out (including Ryan and McConnell ) and a majority in both the House and Senate.

 

[Turd Ferguson]

The President doesn't "make" the budget....he submits a request that the House and Senate provide resolutions and ultimately mark to create an appropriation. He can ask but doesnt mean he'll get...lawmakers controls the purse.

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk

 

[IndySteel]

Red wave, baby!

 

[Coach]

I'd feel a lot better about it if Trump hadn't taken that empty suit Sessions out of the Senate. That was a mistake on every level. Anyway, I predict that we will hold the Senate majority and lose seats in the House but keep a slim majority. I am hoping for a second Trump term with a lot of the swamp cleared out (including Ryan and McConnell ) and a majority in both the House and Senate.

I agree with your prediction. Actually I'd love to see Newt Gingrich back into Politics as the new Speaker of the House if possible. That would be a home run.

Sessions in many ways is Trump's greatest failure. He would have been much better off staying in the Senate. Instead, the Republicans lost a seat in the senate because the guy in the primaries was a me too type.

I would tolerate Sessions is he investigated Democrats. He's a completely comprised Attorney General. I hope he resigns soon.

 

[Sarge]

I actually don't think the make up of either house will change much. Dems will hold theirs, Pubs will hold theirs, with maybe a seat or two moving either way.

The only thing that troubles me is that Republicans will turn on their party much quicker than Democrats will. Trump needs to get all Republicans on the same page, even the ones he doesn't like and has twitter spats with. He is going to need everyone pulling in the same direction.

 

[oneforthebus]

I don't know enough about who's running and where to accurately predict, but I would guess Red will lose seats but not control.

 

[madinsomniac]

I predict that no matter how it turn out one side will have spasms and meltdowns over something....

 

[deljzc]

Predictions just kind of out of the blue:

Senate remains 51 Republicans - 47 Democrats - 2 Independents (Vermont/Maine). Won't be all the same people, but the gains/losses will balance out.

House closes hard and becomes almost dead even. Maybe Republican 220, Democrat 215 or even closer.

I just have a feeling this who situation is going to be a drag out fight with no clear "winner" or "wave". The gains in the house are likely just going to be a correction to the norm. I think the country really is split down the middle philosophically and it will be reflective in our congress.

 

[SteelChip]

I'd feel a lot better about it if Trump hadn't taken that empty suit Sessions out of the Senate. That was a mistake on every level. Anyway, I predict that we will hold the Senate majority and lose seats in the House but keep a slim majority. I am hoping for a second Trump term with a lot of the swamp cleared out (including Ryan and McConnell ) and a majority in both the House and Senate.

I hear that......

 

[Ron Burgundy]

I actually don't think the make up of either house will change much. Dems will hold theirs, Pubs will hold theirs, with maybe a seat or two moving either way.

The only thing that troubles me is that Republicans will turn on their party much quicker than Democrats will. Trump needs to get all Republicans on the same page, even the ones he doesn't like and has twitter spats with. He is going to need everyone pulling in the same direction.

This-----^

 

[Spike]

I predict months of riots before we even get there as the communists battle the "moderates" for control of the Dem party



Antifa invades Portland City Hall

 

[SteelChip]

Bwahahahaha

Spike, them kids looked like they are still in middle school. I got fishin' rods with arms bigger than that.

 

[Coach]

It seems like many of the people who voted Republican in 2016 have stayed home. It also seems like Trump can draw out his very loyal base. The President is going to need to hit the road in key battle ground states to fired up the base and help out the so-so campaign politicians. He’s fully capable of doing it, and he needs to do it. Otherwise Democrats will pick up more seats.

 

[IndySteel]

It seems like many of the people who voted Republican in 2016 have stayed home. It also seems like Trump can draw out his very loyal base. The President is going to need to hit the road in key battle ground states to fired up the base and help out the so-so campaign politicians. He’s fully capable of doing it, and he needs to do it. Otherwise Democrats will pick up more seats.

I'm sure he'll come here to support Braun in his battle to unseat Sen. Donnelly. I can't wait to go to another rally in person.

 

[ZonaBurgh]

I'd be shocked if AZ didn't lose Flake's Senate seat to the Dems. Jackass is pissed because of Trump and quitting, in my opinion to make a presidential run, where he will have a less than zero chance of succeeding.

No strong candidate on the republican side, and someone has opened Fort Knox in advertising for congresswoman Kyrsten Sinema.

I mean every channel and radio station, every day for months now. Can't imagine how much money is being thrown at her.

She's a snake in the grass, but is saying all the right things to get elected, coming across as a moderate champion of the people.
Check her earlier days in politics and you wouldn't think it was the same person.

 

[Smash]

Gonna bump this.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/house/2018_elections_house_map.html

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/senate/2018_elections_senate_map.html

Unless something crazy happens I still don't see any blue wave. With 20 days would be good to hear what is happening near you. Races of note here in FL are Governor a statistical toss up between a Trump supported Ron DeSantis and corruptocrat Andrew Gillum. The Senate should be fun to watch with incumbent Bill Nelson in a tough battle with our 2 term Governor Rick Scott. I think we flip this seat but Nelson is mostly moderate until the last few years, and he does a lot for the military.

We also have 12 amendments most of which suck but will probably pass because they've bundled many no brainers in with stuff that is hard to understand. Vote people.

 

[deljzc]

Gonna bump this.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/house/2018_elections_house_map.html

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/senate/2018_elections_senate_map.html

Unless something crazy happens I still don't see any blue wave. With 20 days would be good to hear what is happening near you. Races of note here in FL are Governor a statistical toss up between a Trump supported Ron DeSantis and corruptocrat Andrew Gillum. The Senate should be fun to watch with incumbent Bill Nelson in a tough battle with our 2 term Governor Rick Scott. I think we flip this seat but Nelson is mostly moderate until the last few years, and he does a lot for the military.

We also have 12 amendments most of which suck but will probably pass because they've bundled many no brainers in with stuff that is hard to understand. Vote people.

They already have Democrats at a 204 - 200 lead in the House and 30 of the 31 "toss-ups" are (R)'s. I'm kind of resigned to the fact the Democrats win the House close. As I said earlier, that's a correction to the norm.

I am VERY happy with the way the Senate is shaping up. I think the Republicans can win 2 seats pretty easily and with no more Flake that means those two women can't hold up the whole chamber looking for attention. A 53 or 54 majority in the Senate would be pretty big.

A 50%-50% house would be useless, especially if the Democrats hold a light edge. Nothing will get done except small stuff (which might be fine at this point).

 

[Stewey]

A non-politician becoming president was never gonna happen.
Trump winning the primaries was never gonna happen.
Trump beating the Hildebeest was never gonna happen.

I'm going with the trend and predict that for the first time the party in power will regain power in both Houses!

 

[ZonaBurgh]

McSally and Sinema are neck and neck in the polls for what that's worth, for Flake's senate seat. They're supposed to debate this week and may clear things up. So far nothing but ads bashing each other over the head, calling one another a liar.

Ducey (R) should easily retain the governorship. His opponent proposes no wall at the boarder, typical tax and spend guy. His campaign slogan is "just imagine" which he repeats in Spanish in his ads. Arizonans can imagine and he will lose badly. DNC has stopped funding to his camp.

 

[Smash]

They already have Democrats at a 204 - 200 lead in the House and 30 of the 31 "toss-ups" are (R)'s. I'm kind of resigned to the fact the Democrats win the House close. As I said earlier, that's a correction to the norm.

Gonna be fun to watch the dems further chew on their own leg if they do take the House and Nancy wants her gavel back. I attribute the possibility of losing the House to the fact that Ryan et. al. chose to fight Trump for 1 1/2 years instead of following his lead but c'est la guerre. History says the Pres loses seats in the midterms but I'll wait and see as RCP trend shows the races tightening.

As to the Senate you have to give it to McConnell. He's about to hold serve and possibly gain on the midterms and has overseen the conservative shift of the SCOTUS. Kudos Mitch.

 

[Smash]

McSally and Sinema are neck and neck in the polls for what that's worth, for Flake's senate seat.

What night is that debate do you know Zona?

 

[Vader]

I just don't see a blue wave. I see the Reps. gaining in the senate and possibly keeping the house even if they lose a few seats. Trump has coat tails and some of the "close" senate seats are trending Rep. Hell Heidkemp is down by 12 points and Blackburn is up 7-8 points in TN. McCaskill is down in Missouri as well. Tester is down in Montana ETC.

 

[hamster]

I just don't see a blue wave. I see the Reps. gaining in the senate and possibly keeping the house even if they lose a few seats. Trump has coat tails and some of the "close" senate seats are trending Rep. Hell Heidkemp is down by 12 points and Blackburn is up 7-8 points in TN. McCaskill is down in Missouri as well. Tester is down in Montana ETC.

Yeah, but those polls typically don't count all of the dead Democrats that will be voting. Jus sayin.