There are a lot of these Omar breakdowns on social media these days.. its still comically too early since his first draft was only 2023..
Most are pretty basic too.. evaluating GM draft pick success is extremely complicated and most generic formulas dont do it proper justice.
So lets say we are looking at 2023... thats only 3 years of data and really not close to enough to make a proper evaluation because many players are far from the overall form their career will be judged by.. for instance, Cam Heyward is an A++ pick, but after only 3 years hed probably have gotten a C grade... after just one or two seasons, it would have been much lower.. on the flip side Kendrell Bell probably still gets an A grade after season 3... hed have gotten an A++ after one or two years.. overall its probably a B- type grade, maybe lower
Drafts are notoriously unique.. talent levels and depth varies year to year and position by position
To be thorough, an evaluation need to account for what the player they took ultimately contributed to the team on comparison to who was available in the draft and what other players contributed
Other issues must be factored in, such as Injuries or Asset return.. so say, Ryan Shazier would still garner a higher grade even though a freak injury wiped hom out of football.. the pick was great, the FO shouldnt get dinged for bad luck.. though that can be different if the player came with injury red flags that were ignored such as Trice
As for asset recovery, how a player left the team matters.. were they cut early, did they leave in UFA for a bigger contract? Were they traded and what did that trade return? So lets look at Chase Claypool..
Claypool, overall, seems like a failed pick, but he was not... in 2.5 seasons here he gave the steelers 27 starts, over 250 receptions and over 2000 yards, which are fine numbers for the 49th overall pick his first 2.5 seasons... he was then traded for what turned into the 32nd overall pick in the 2023 nfl draft...
The player fell apart and was quickly out of the league, but the actual contributions he made to the team were good for his draft position and the Asset return was greater than the initial pick they invested... making it a good pick..
Now lets look at Spenser Anderson.. the final pick in that initial Omar Khan 2023 draft.. I see a lot of low to middling grades on that pick.
there were 42 picks in that seventh round... he was the 34th one.
He has also developed into an extremely valuable backup who can play all 5 positions on the Oline. As well as being a jumbo package blocking specialist. He has given the team 11 starts in those 3 seasons...
To understand what that means... of the 42 7th round picks, only 15 have started a game in the NFL in any capacity... only 5 of them have double digit starts in the first 3 years of their career.. Anderson is fourth on that list.
As far as Snaps played for a team, Anderson has played 866... 694 on O and 172 on ST..
thats 6th most among all 42 2023 7th rounders.. moreover, eliminating ST snaps, thats fifth most among O and D players... among Offensive players only, thats 2nd... only Vorhees from the ravens has played more on offense...
There are 5 guys you can say are better or as good picks as he was.. Jaylon Jones, drafted 4th in that round, Andrew Vorhees, drafted 22th, Carrington Valentine, drafted 15th.. and Moro Ojomo, drafted 32nd...
So none were on the board when Anderson was drafted
For where he was drafted, he has far surpassed the expected value .. he should be around and A to B+ rating at worse..
The other pick in the 7th round was a bust due to injury, but still a very good shot at a home run on a 7th rounder.. Corey Trice had red flags over injuries... and ultimately they proved true.. he only played in six games for the Steelers in the 3 years since he was drafted.. but the talent was undeniable..
he racked up 193 defensive snaps and got 1 start in those 6 games.. so discounting ST snaps, he was 16th among 2023 7th rounders in snaps played (23rd counting STSnaps) he was one of those 15 to actually get a start.. he had a pick, a couple PD's and a couple TFLs in those six games.. so he showed playmaking ability..
Yes he was a failed player due to injuries.. but that was a good gamble that just didnt play out... the scouting was solid, the luck was not...
