Projecting Kenny Pickett’s Success Based on Draft History Since 2000

[Steeler Nation]

When the Pittsburgh Steelers selected Kenny Pickett in the first round of the 2022 NFL Draft, Art Rooney II, Mike Tomlin, and Kevin Colbert sent a clear message about how important the quarterback position is. The Steelers went over two decades without drafting a quarterback in the first round following the retirement of Terry Bradshaw until selecting Ben Roethlisberger in 2004, and were haunted by the 1983 gaffe of not selecting Dan Marino.

While the Steelers commitment to a quarterback in the first round is testament to understanding the significance of the position, particularly in the current NFL landscape, it’s also not an indicator of how successful he will be. However, using recent draft history and analytics, we can get project the chances Pickett will win a Super Bowl with the Steelers and even be a Hall of Famer.

Steelers NFL Draft Prospect QB Kenny Pickett from Pitt | Photo via Twitter.com/JSKO_PHOTO

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Steelers Ghosts of Past Drafts May Have Influenced the Kenny Pickett Selection in Round 1​

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Since the 2000 NFL Draft, 67 quarterbacks have been drafted in the first round or top 32 picks, with 47 being selected in the top 15. Of the remaining 19 quarterbacks that were taken in that later half of the first round, how many have been successful? Let’s examine those 19 quarterbacks to potentially get a glimpse of what we can expect.

A – Hall of Fame 1st Ballot (11%)​

1. Aaron Rodgers – Green Bay Packers (2005, 25th overall): 4x MVP, 10x Pro Bowler, Super Bowl XLV MVP. Rodgers’ infamous slide and long day waiting in the green room was embarrassing, but he got the last laugh with 4 MVPs, a painful Super Bowl XLV win against the Steelers, and a Hall of Fame career.
2. Drew Brees – San Diego Chargers (2001, 32nd overall*): 13x Pro Bowler, Super Bowl XLIV MVP. Brees technically went in the 2nd round a year before the league expanded to 32 teams.* He slid because of his height and struggled early, but emerged as a star in 2004 and led the New Orleans Saints to a Super Bowl XLIV win and a Hall of Fame career.

Chances Kenny Pickett will be Grade A: It would be unfair to compare the #1 overall pick to the career that these two all time greats have accomplished, but it is possible.

B – Solid with Great Moments (16%)​

1. Joe Flacco – Baltimore Ravens (2008, 18th overall): Super Bowl XLVII MVP. Flacco had a lot of doubters but kept the Ravens winning until that incredible 2012 playoff run to win Super Bowl XLVII, and it’s been steep downhill ever since.
2. Chad Pennington – New York Jets (2000, 18th overall): 2x Comeback Player of the Year. The Steelers had eyes on Pennington, a weak arm saw him drop, but he was incredibly accurate. Injuries ended a promising career too soon.
3. Lamar Jackson – Baltimore Ravens (2018, 32nd overall): 1x MVP, 2x Pro Bowler. Jackson has achieved a lot of success, but not in the playoffs. There are questions about him long-term due to the heavy reliance on his running, and running quarterbacks don’t traditionally have a long shelf life in the NFL.

Chances Kenny Pickett will be Grade B: This is a very attainable level for Pickett, as each of these quarterbacks experienced high moments despite flaws in their game. And if Pickett is able to guide the Steelers to a Super Bowl, that is a win all of Steeler Nation will take.

C – There was that one season (21%)​

1. Rex Grossman – Chicago Bears (2003, 22nd overall): Grossman led the Bears to Super Bowl XLI, amazing accomplishment for how bad he was.
2. Teddy Bridgewater – Minnesota Vikings (2014, 32nd overall): Look up journeyman QB and there is a picture of Bridgewater.
3. Josh Freeman – Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2009, 17th overall): Freeman looked like he might emerge as a star QB following a stellar 2010 campaign, but it was too much work, so no.
4. Tim Tebow – Denver Broncos (2010, 25th overall): Tebow’s one shining moment was the bane of every Steeler fans existence as he punched above his weight to win in the 2011 playoffs.

Chances Kenny Pickett will be Grade C: Most of these guys dealt with injuries that limited them in their careers, but didn’t start off with much of a margin of error to begin with. It’s safe to say that even if Pickett were to get the Steelers to a Super Bowl and they lost like Grossman, he would be remembered for what he didn’t do.

D – Incomplete (5%)​

1. Jordan Love – Green Bay Packers (2020, 26th overall): In a no-win situation with Rodgers still around, as Love isn’t getting on the field anytime soon.

Chances Kenny Pickett will be Grade D: What are the odds that Mitch Trubisky emerges as an elite starter? If Pickett doesn’t play because Trubisky turned into a franchise quarterback, Steeler Nation would be okay with that.

F – Complete and Total Bust (47%)​

1. Kyle Boller – Baltimore Ravens (2003, 19th overall): Nice to see the Ravens miss this badly in the draft for a change.
2. Patrick Ramsey – Washington Commanders (2002, 32nd overall): Thankfully Washington still had hopes for him when they didn’t take Roethlisberger in 2004.
3. Jason Campbell – Washington Commanders (2005, 25th overall): If Rodgers would have just lasted one more pick, he would have rotted away in Washington.
4. J.P. Losman – Buffalo Bills (2004, 22nd overall): Tom Donahoe tried to move up so he could pick Roethlisberger ahead of the Steelers. Instead he traded for the Todd Blackledge of the 2004 QB NFL Draft class and missed out on the chance to take Rodgers the following season.
5. E.J. Manuel – Buffalo Bills (2013, 16th overall): Many have said the 2013 QB Draft class is the worst ever. Hopefully that remains the same in the future.
6. Brady Quinn – Cleveland Browns (2007, 22nd overall): The Browns were thought to be considering taking Quinn as high as with the #3 overall pick. They thought they got a steal when they traded back into the first to get him. They were wrong.
7. Brandon Weedon – Cleveland Browns (2012, 22nd overall): Who drafts a 29-year-old rookie QB? The Browns clearly aren’t good at this.
8. Johnny Manziel – Cleveland Browns (2014, 22nd overall): A homeless guy advised Browns owner Jimmy Haslam to take Manziel. Good call.
9. Paxton Lynch – Denver Broncos (2016, 26th overall): Didn’t Lynch get cut from USFL?

Chances Kenny Pickett will be Grade F: With the exception of Boller and the Ravens, the failure rate is overwhelmingly led by the Browns, Bills, Commanders and Broncos. That can’t be a coincidence. By the nature of the Steelers franchise, Pickett will not be this level of bust, we hope.



Where do you think Pickett will land on this list in five years? Leave a comment below.

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[SteelBuckeye]

I don't see Pickett in the Boller, Ramsey, Lynch, etc. category. Most of those guy were "WTF" reach picks at the time they were drafted. They also each were either less polished coming out of college than Pickett, had maturity/substance abuse issues, were viewed as projects, and so on. Hell, 5 of the 9 of the "F" grade QBs were picked by Cleveland or Washington ... enough said there.

Nah, I expect Kenny to be in the "B" grade category. He's going to be a solid QB who will help to keep the Steelers in playoff contention and have the occasional "WOW" season. And, that's a good career. Now, hopefully he proves me wrong and just balls out to push himself into something close to the "A" category.

 

[Ironcitysteelers]

1. Brady Quinn – Cleveland Browns (2007, 22nd overall): The Browns were thought to be considering taking Quinn as high as with the #3 overall pick. They thought they got a steal when they traded back into the first to get him. They were wrong.
2. Brandon Weedon – Cleveland Browns (2012, 22nd overall): Who drafts a 29-year-old rookie QB? The Browns clearly aren’t good at this.
3. Johnny Manziel – Cleveland Browns (2014, 22nd overall): A homeless guy advised Browns owner Jimmy Haslam to take Manziel. Good

 

[Steeltime]

I wish the Clowns had selected Paxton Lynch in 2016.

 

[steelhurt]

The one intangible that Kenny possesses that is so important is his work ethic. I don’t know how to emphasize this anymore than I already have but this young man has a history of working hard and making himself better ever year. I think you will see this and how much of a film junkie he is too. Kenny if he stays healthy can most certainly be in the first category as he will continue to grow and get better every year. Not like he was surrounded by top talent every season at Pitt as well. You put him at a program like Alabama, LSU, Georgia, all SEC schools, he’s most likely a top three pick. Playing at Pitt doesn’t have near the glitter as these SEC schools. Look at Burrow, he was a backup at OSU and had one great season at LSU. I think most will be pleasantly surprised by Kenny.

 

[FordFairLane]

It’s a crapshoot. I think Rodgers had success because he was allowed to sit behind Favre. In his preseason and limited regular season play he looked pedestrian. Brees played earlier but also got to sit his rookie year minus 27 attempts. And he wasn’t very good until his 4th year. I think for Pickett to have success he likely sits at least one season if not two. Imo this says we are in a rebuilding phase of the team.

 

[steelhurt]

Also have to consider Kenny will be 24 when the season starts so waiting two years for him to start idk about that. He will get every opportunity to win the job this year.

 

[SteelerSask2]

I do not expect another HOF qb in my lifetime in Pitt. There are only 23 and I've seen 2. But you don't need a HOf to win a SB. Just ask the Rams.good to very good can get it done.

 

[FSF]

I do not expect another HOF qb in my lifetime in Pitt. There are only 23 and I've seen 2. But you don't need a HOf to win a SB. Just ask the Rams.good to very good can get it done.

That # is going to increase to 30 pretty quickly. All 3 of the 2004 Class - Ben, Rivers, Eli - will get in. Brees, Rodgers, Brady makes 3 more.

Then Russell Wilson & Matt Ryan will be up. One if not both will go in.

By the way—Stafford was better than good-to-great, that’s just the stain Detroit puts on one’s career

 

[SteelBuckeye]

That # is going to increase to 30 pretty quickly. All 3 of the 2004 Class - Ben, Rivers, Eli - will get in. Brees, Rodgers, Brady makes 3 more.

Then Russell Wilson & Matt Ryan will be up. One if not both will go in.

By the way—Stafford was better than good-to-great, that’s just the stain Detroit puts on one’s career

When Stafford went to the Rams before last season, same media that votes on the H.O.F. was widely proclaiming that all he needed to gain entry was a S.B. win. Well, he got that. Sooooooo ...

 

[SteelerSask2]

That # is going to increase to 30 pretty quickly. All 3 of the 2004 Class - Ben, Rivers, Eli - will get in. Brees, Rodgers, Brady makes 3 more.

Then Russell Wilson & Matt Ryan will be up. One if not both will go in.

By the way—Stafford was better than good-to-great, that’s just the stain Detroit puts on one’s career

Your interpretation. I saw Stafford **** it up himself many times.

 

[FSF]

Your interpretation. I saw Stafford **** it up himself many times.

Yeah, him and everyone else if we’re being honest.

If Pickett played the next 10 years at Stafford’s level, I’d personally be thrilled with that

 

[Drink IRON City]

The one intangible that Kenny possesses that is so important is his work ethic. I don’t know how to emphasize this anymore than I already have but this young man has a history of working hard and making himself better ever year. I think you will see this and how much of a film junkie he is too. Kenny if he stays healthy can most certainly be in the first category as he will continue to grow and get better every year. Not like he was surrounded by top talent every season at Pitt as well. You put him at a program like Alabama, LSU, Georgia, all SEC schools, he’s most likely a top three pick. Playing at Pitt doesn’t have near the glitter as these SEC schools. Look at Burrow, he was a backup at OSU and had one great season at LSU. I think most will be pleasantly surprised by Kenny.

Great post steelhurt, thank you

Just to be clear,.......... BEN ROETHLISBERGER is in that catagory A as well.

I've been hearing a lot about Picjett's work ethic and I'm impressed and will look forward to seeing that on the field. It will be a different aspect compared to what BEN did in his younger years.

The B catagory is most likely his placement, I see him as better than Action Jackson and hope Pickett can bring home a SB or two. I realize that is pretty high expectations but Flacko brought one back with use of a strong defense & run game, and I hope that's what we get to.

As for Kenny Pickett becoming a HOF qaurterback,....... highly unlikely but one can always dream the dream.


Salute the nation

 

[steelhurt]

Ben was a great QB for us no doubt and a first ballet HOF candidate but man his first few years were rough as far as his maturity went. We watched him mature and become a great family man so alls well that end well. See ya in Canton Ben in a few years.
Kenny will come in here more mature than when Ben came to us plus he’s a couple years older than when Ben was drafted. He’ll be a hard worker and make us all proud and happy we drafted him.

 

[slashsteel]

The one intangible that Kenny possesses that is so important is his work ethic. I don’t know how to emphasize this anymore than I already have but this young man has a history of working hard and making himself better ever year. I think you will see this and how much of a film junkie he is too. Kenny if he stays healthy can most certainly be in the first category as he will continue to grow and get better every year. Not like he was surrounded by top talent every season at Pitt as well. You put him at a program like Alabama, LSU, Georgia, all SEC schools, he’s most likely a top three pick. Playing at Pitt doesn’t have near the glitter as these SEC schools. Look at Burrow, he was a backup at OSU and had one great season at LSU. I think most will be pleasantly surprised by Kenny.

One underrated attribute of Kenny is that he can drop footballs into tight windows.

 

[SteelerSask2]

Yeah, him and everyone else if we’re being honest.

If Pickett played the next 10 years at Stafford’s level, I’d personally be thrilled with that

I agree. Kinda my point. There are guys like Stafford and Carr and Tannehill who can win. They probably aren't HOF. Pickett almost certainly won't be HOF. That's just math. But he could be damn good.

 

[topseed]

Also have to consider Kenny will be 24 when the season starts so waiting two years for him to start idk about that. He will get every opportunity to win the job this year.

Based on the incessant whining in this forum, I had assumed that Pickett was already 24 years old, but he is still 23 for another month. So even if he sits behind Trubisky for a year, he'll be 25 when the season begins. If he sits two years (unlikely), he'll be 26. The age factor is really not that big of a deal -- Aaron Rodgers was 25 and turned 26 in December during his first season as a starter (Green Bay went 6-10 that year), and he's considered one of the best of all-time.

 

[Drink IRON City]

Like all players Kenny needs to actually play before he is a HOFer.

Most here (including me) want him to succeed but Must be willing to see how he translates to the NFL field of play.

I think he will be fine but not over the top HOF proportions. Should he make HOF status it will be over the slow grind of time.



Salute the nation

 

[FSF]

Like all players Kenny needs to actually play before he is a HOFer.

Most here (including me) want him to succeed but Must be willing to see how he translates to the NFL field of play.

I think he will be fine but not over the top HOF proportions. Should he make HOF status it will be over the slow grind of time.



Salute the nation

I don't think for a second that anyone is suggesting that he is going to be a HoF QB, it was more of a statistical probability based on QBs taken 15-32 since 2000, which is admittedly not an accurate measure.

 

[Fiji Mariner]

I predict KP will look great standing next to cool shades as t-biscuit leads us up the stairway to 7.

Since a SB is eminent the real question is can he beat out Mason for clipboard duty or if he gets to suit up and look cool standing on the sidelines next to MT.

Zero picks this year for KP, it’s a lock

 

[Fiji Mariner]

I agree. Kinda my point. There are guys like Stafford and Carr and Tannehill who can win. They probably aren't HOF. Pickett almost certainly won't be HOF. That's just math. But he could be damn good.

KP couldn’t hold Stafford’s jock
Stafford’s only problem was Detroit
KP does not have his arm, field vision, toughness, etc

Maybe Carr as a ceiling, more likely Tannehill imo

 

[slashsteel]

I predict KP will look great standing next to cool shades as t-biscuit leads us up the stairway to 7.

Since a SB is eminent the real question is can he beat out Mason for clipboard duty or if he gets to suit up and look cool standing on the sidelines next to MT.

Zero picks this year for KP, it’s a lock

I really don't know who wins that three headed monster. I would guess Rudolph doesn't. But really don't know how it will unfold. Will be an interesting watch. Hopefully a more fun than painful watch.

 

[Fiji Mariner]

Ben was a great QB for us no doubt and a first ballet HOF candidate but man his first few years were rough as far as his maturity went. We watched him mature and become a great family man so alls well that end well. See ya in Canton Ben in a few years.
Kenny will come in here more mature than when Ben came to us plus he’s a couple years older than when Ben was drafted. He’ll be a hard worker and make us all proud and happy we drafted him.

So sincerely hope you are right about that last part, just can’t see it yet.

I Would love nothing more than to be wrong about my assessment of dangerously average as a ceiling for him, but I just can’t see his skill set translating to more than dangerously average…even giving him credit for being a mature, hard worker.

 

[steelhurt]

Something to consider for what its worth when it comes to Marino vs Kenny Pickett. Marino did play four full seasons starting as a freshmen and having his best statistical year as a junior. His senior year was somewhat of a disappointment at Pitt and although the silly drug rumor certainly did damage, can't help but think the senior year didn't help his stock.
Pickett, although a five year player at Pitt, started four years. His freshman year consisted of the one start against number two (2) rated Miami that he beat, so essentially the kid was a four year starter for those comparing Pickett's and Marino's stats for their careers at Pitt. And Kenny's best year was his last year.

Do I think Pickett will surpass Marino in the NFL, I have no earthly idea and frankly don't think he needs that to be a successful NFL QB. Hell, I had no idea Marino would go on to play and have the fantastic career he had at Miami. Nor did five other teams who chose QB's ahead of him that year. I d think the comparisons between the two are somewhat similar in size, football intelligence, leadership, accuracy, not a rocket arm but certainly strong enough to make every throw,. It was Marino who said, its not how hard you throw it but where you throw it. I'll take that all day long.

 

[topseed]

Do I think Pickett will surpass Marino in the NFL, I have no earthly idea and frankly don't think he needs that to be a successful NFL QB. Hell, I had no idea Marino would go on to play and have the fantastic career he had at Miami. Nor did five other teams who chose QB's ahead of him that year. I d think the comparisons between the two are somewhat similar in size, football intelligence, leadership, accuracy, not a rocket arm but certainly strong enough to make every throw,. It was Marino who said, its not how hard you throw it but where you throw it. I'll take that all day long.

Not sure how old you are or if you've ever watched him play, but it's pretty much common football knowledge that Dan Marino had one of the strongest arms in NFL history. Along with one of the quickest releases.