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Steelers current Playoff and Division status

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madinsomniac

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At 10-3 (3-1 in the division and 7-2 in the AFC) The Steelers would have a hard Time missing the playoffs.. the only scenarios entail:
-The Steelers losing out
-Indy or Miami winning out
-The Ravens winning at least 2 of their remaining 4 games.
-Denver and The Chargers finishing 3-1 or better or one of those two finishing 3-1 or better and Indy and Miami both winning out

Its unlikely at best... the steelers are 99% in the playoffs... they can clinch this week with a win or losses by both Miami and Indy
---------------------------
The path to the Division has three main roads
1. Beat the Ravens week 16 and it is clinched no matter what else happens. The best Baltimore could do is tie and we have the h2h tiebreaker
2. Beat the Bengals and either KC or Philly.
Even if Baltimore won out, This would tie us in h2h and conference record. The Raven lose on common opponent record.
3. Have the ravens lose vs Cleveland week 17
Even if they went 3-1 in this scenario and we went 0-4, we would tie in record, h2h and conference record and they would lose on common opponents
At this point we probably have like a 75% or greater chance at the division
----------------------------------------------------

As for the top seed, we would have to win out , have Kc lose 1 more besides our h2h matchup, and have the Bills SOV dip beneath ours, which probably will happen if we won out...
 
Indy plays Denver this week so one of those teams will lose. Probably better if Denver wins that one to almost eliminate the colts. Then Denver has a brutal finish with Chargers, Bengals, and KC. KC may be resting starters at this time though. Miami has Texans and SF. I don't think anyone wants to play Miami or Cinci if they sneak in.
 
jitter77 said:
Indy plays Denver this week so one of those teams will lose. Probably better if Denver wins that one to almost eliminate the colts. Then Denver has a brutal finish with Chargers, Bengals, and KC. KC may be resting starters at this time though. Miami has Texans and SF. I don't think anyone wants to play Miami or Cinci if they sneak in.
Click to expand...
I would rather play KC or Baltimore in the playoffs. Miami and Cinci we would have to win a shootout, I cringe thinking of what those guys could potentially do to our secondary. Want no part of seeing Chase or Hill, Waddle and Achane in the playoffs.
 
bigben said:
I would rather play KC or Baltimore in the playoffs. Miami and Cinci we would have to win a shootout, I cringe thinking of what those guys could potentially do to our secondary. Want no part of seeing Chase or Hill, Waddle and Achane in the playoffs.
Click to expand...
I understand we’re your coming from big Ben..

However, if we secure the two seed, or one if we’re lucky, we can beat any of the potential playoff teams in Pittsburgh in January …any and all without a doubt.
 
madinsomniac said:
At 10-3 (3-1 in the division and 7-2 in the AFC) The Steelers would have a hard Time missing the playoffs.. the only scenarios entail:
-The Steelers losing out
-Indy or Miami winning out
-The Ravens winning at least 2 of their remaining 4 games.
-Denver and The Chargers finishing 3-1 or better or one of those two finishing 3-1 or better and Indy and Miami both winning out

Its unlikely at best... the steelers are 99% in the playoffs... they can clinch this week with a win or losses by both Miami and Indy
---------------------------
The path to the Division has three main roads
1. Beat the Ravens week 16 and it is clinched no matter what else happens. The best Baltimore could do is tie and we have the h2h tiebreaker
2. Beat the Bengals and either KC or Philly.
Even if Baltimore won out, This would tie us in h2h and conference record. The Raven lose on common opponent record.
3. Have the ravens lose vs Cleveland week 17
Even if they went 3-1 in this scenario and we went 0-4, we would tie in record, h2h and conference record and they would lose on common opponents
At this point we probably have like a 75% or greater chance at the division
----------------------------------------------------

As for the top seed, we would have to win out , have Kc lose 1 more besides our h2h matchup, and have the Bills SOV dip beneath ours, which probably will happen if we won out...
Click to expand...
I'm still riding the high of another non-losing season... anything else is just icing on top.🤪
 
Nice summation Mad, especially with the matchups. In the determining process of tie breakers where does “common opponents” fall in the tier decision?

Also, you broke everything down so well hardly any of the usual critics of……well….everything involving winning up to now……seems to have paused. It will reappear in spades at the next loss, but even Coach Lloyd has zipped mouth syndrome for this thread.
 
Ike Kelly said:
Nice summation Mad, especially with the matchups. In the determining process of tie breakers where does “common opponents” fall in the tier decision?

Also, you broke everything down so well hardly any of the usual critics of……well….everything involving winning up to now……seems to have paused. It will reappear in spades at the next loss, but even Coach Lloyd has zipped mouth syndrome for this thread.
Click to expand...

The NFL, in it's finite wisdom, has 4 different processes of tiebreakers.
One for 2 team ties within the division
One for 3 or more team ties within the division
One for 2 team ties for teams in different divisions
One for ties pertaining to 3 or more teams from different divisions

For Divisional ties involving just 2 teams, it goes:
1. Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games between the clubs).
2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.
3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games.
4. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
5. Strength of victory in all games. (the total winning percentage of teams they beat)
6. Strength of schedule in all games (the total winning percentage of teams they played, win or lose)
7. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed in all games.
8. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed in all games.
9. Best net points in common games.
10. Best net points in all games.
11. Best net touchdowns in all games.
12. Coin toss

For 3 or 4 division team ties, the same criteria applies, only as soon as a step eliminates one or more teams, the process restarts from step 1 using and teams still remaining..
( and no, I have exactly zero clues how the nfl would do a coin flip between 4 tied teams... though the chance that would ever happen is minute.)

For wild card ties between 2 teams outside of the division, the Criteria changes to:

1. Head-to-head, if applicable.
2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.
4. Strength of victory in all games.
5. Strength of schedule in all games.
6. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed in all games.
7. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed in all games.
8. Best net points in conference games.
9. Best net points in all games.
10. Best net touchdowns in all games.
11. Coin toss.

This has a couple key differences... obviously all references to divisional games are eliminated, but also Conference record is flipped with common games record ... in divisional standings, conference record means less than in wild card standings...

Also a four game minimum is added to the common games criteria, but every team has at least 4 common games per scheduling...
-two games vs a team in team A's division,
-one game in Team B's division
-at least one game in the other conference division team A's division plays
-at least one game in the other conference division team B's division plays...
 
For three or more teams outside tge division the criteria becomes:
1. Apply division tiebreaker to eliminate all but the highest ranked club in each division prior to proceeding to step 2. The original seeding within a division upon application of the division tiebreaker remains the same for all subsequent applications of the procedure that are necessary to identify the two Wild-Card participants.

2. Head-to-head sweep. (Applicable only if one club has defeated each of the others or if one club has lost to each of the others.)
3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
4. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.
5. Strength of victory in all games.
6. Strength of schedule in all games.
7. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed in all games.
8. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed in all games.
9. Best net points in conference games.
10. Best net points in all games.
11. Best net touchdowns in all games.
12. Coin toss

So the big thing here is that only 1 team per division can take part in any tie breaking step.
So hypothetically, lets say there was a 4 team tie between Miami, Baltimore, Indianapolis, and Denver for three Wildcard spots, and Denver beat all three of those teams in head to head play.. Denver gets the first spot... they would be team #5 in the playoffs..

But now lets say The Chargers also finish tied with those teams... so it is a five team tie.. but The chargers lost to Baltimore, Miami, and Indy, and split with Denver, but finished with a better division record than Denver..

In that case, neither Denver nor the Chargers would make the playoffs... despite Denver being 4-1 between the potential wild card teams, step 1 each time would push them behind LA and thus eliminate them from that round of tie-breaking, and each time the Chargers H2H record would eliminate them in step 2, putting all three of the other teams in

(this is hypothetical, it is not something that is going to happen this season.. It is just an example)
 
Last edited:
bigben said:
I would rather play KC or Baltimore in the playoffs. Miami and Cinci we would have to win a shootout, I cringe thinking of what those guys could potentially do to our secondary. Want no part of seeing Chase or Hill, Waddle and Achane in the playoffs.
Click to expand...
Doesn’t really matter as the D gives up 35+ in the playoffs.
 
If they win out AND win the Super Bowl, that will be a really sweet winning streak.

Add in the fact that they will have scored 40+ points in every playoff game too. (Since they will have had to overcome the Defense giving up 35+ Points each of those games).
 
MT~Forged said:
Doesn’t really matter as the D gives up 35+ in the playoffs.
Click to expand...
I hear ya Forged. Thats why
In my perfect world we play Ravens and Bills in the playoffs. We should be able to put up points against both.
They both have very big defensive weaknesses. Pass for Ravens and run D for the Bills. Near league worst in both cases.
If Tomlin and Smith cannot gameplan for those defenses I don't even know what to say?
 
bigben said:
I hear ya Forged. Thats why
In my perfect world we play Ravens and Bills in the playoffs. We should be able to put up points against both.
They both have very big defensive weaknesses. Pass for Ravens and run D for the Bills. Near league worst in both cases.
If Tomlin and Smith cannot gameplan for those defenses I don't even know what to say?
Click to expand...
Those 2 teams would not be my choice. The Bills destroyed us last year and weather won't be an issue for them. I think we would have to get into a shootout with them which is not our strong area. I think the Bills are our worst matchup overall. Ravens are usually tough ugly games which could go either way. I think we match up better with KC, Chargers, Denver.
 
jitter77 said:
Those 2 teams would not be my choice. The Bills destroyed us last year and weather won't be an issue for them. I think we would have to get into a shootout with them which is not our strong area. I think the Bills are our worst matchup overall. Ravens are usually tough ugly games which could go either way. I think we match up better with KC, Chargers, Denver.
Click to expand...
The Bills did destroy the defense last year but they are not as strong this year against the run. We should be able to run the ball and keep Allen on the sideline.
I agree I like our chances vs KC, Chargers, Denver, but I think they are all bad matchups assuming we gameplan to pound the rock. They all have good rushing defenses.
 
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