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The Coronavirus thread

Convinced at this point after listening to a few Pay it Forward concerts especially Dave Matthews, that this whole frigging thing was inspired by the Climate Change folks. They need a regime change otherwise it's lights out for them.
 
The WHO is saying antibodies MAY not protect as there’s no evidence of that yet.

The WHO have shown themselves to be a real unbiased, reliable source of information. Yeah let's listen to them.
 
The WHO is saying antibodies MAY not protect as there’s no evidence of that yet.

That story has been pushed for over a month in some of my more liberal circles this has been used as an argument that we have to wait to lift the lockdown until a vaccine is found...
A vaccine simply starts the body producing antibodies for the illness... if antibodies don’t work then vaccines don’t either
This is based off of a singular case in Australia and several dozen cases from south korea where every medical expert without an agenda has postulated they are cases of bad tests giving false negatives before the patient is completely clear of the virus and the patient relapsing...


If antibodies don’t fight off the virus tgen people wouldn’t be getting better

The WHO is just totally corrupt and jumping on this bandwagon shows they are prone to fearmongering...
 
That should be all over the place. I just sent it to 20 people. It brings me back into the proper perspective.....and covid-19 is way way way way way way way overblown. I think we've all been had.

That is a GREAT video. From doctors. Living in the middle of this. Saying...it's overblown.

But the media controls the narrative....

The Media IS the enemy of the people. Ours is no better than Pravda any more.
 
The WHO is just totally corrupt and jumping on this bandwagon shows they are prone to fearmongering...


The WHO, and their former Ethiopian Terrorist leader are deeply in China's pocket as well.

Look the guy up. Vermin.
 
That story has been pushed for over a month in some of my more liberal circles this has been used as an argument that we have to wait to lift the lockdown until a vaccine is found...
A vaccine simply starts the body producing antibodies for the illness... if antibodies don’t work then vaccines don’t either
This is based off of a singular case in Australia and several dozen cases from south korea where every medical expert without an agenda has postulated they are cases of bad tests giving false negatives before the patient is completely clear of the virus and the patient relapsing...


If antibodies don’t fight off the virus tgen people wouldn’t be getting better

The WHO is just totally corrupt and jumping on this bandwagon shows they are prone to fearmongering...

It's like talking to children. They aren't capable of connecting the dots. To them biology is fluid, climate is static and COVID19 is a maelstrom the likes of which humanity has never seen. Destroying the economy over this tempest in a teacup borders on psychotic. Orange man bad isn't a reason to destroy the U.S. economy and give congratulatory pats on the back to a repressive, corrupt and despicable country and their puppets at the WHO.
 
So another thing you are starting to see a lot of articles about the lockdown beginning to fail... they know this because they are collectively tracking cell phone locations... two generations of liberals ago would have flipped their collective **** over that invasion of privacy...
 
We've been on this lock down for about six weeks now. The numbers seem to have maxed out and we are seeing in the same ballpark of new cases per day. Have there been any reports on where all of these new cases are developing, specifically to learn about the transmission? I'm genuinely curious. I also continue to look at the US vs the rest of the world. How many tests are we doing compared to everyone else?
 
We've been on this lock down for about six weeks now. The numbers seem to have maxed out and we are seeing in the same ballpark of new cases per day. Have there been any reports on where all of these new cases are developing, specifically to learn about the transmission? I'm genuinely curious. I also continue to look at the US vs the rest of the world. How many tests are we doing compared to everyone else?

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/full-list-covid-19-tests-per-day

So at first the testing talking point was we were so far behind every else for the first few weeks

Then our testing surpassed everyone else so it became we needed to test at the same pace they did for swine flu... (even though that was a pathetic testing effort that struggled early too) that effort tested a million people within five months of the first us case... we blew past that pace by the end of last month.

So then it became we needed 150,000 tests per day to open up

Well we blew past that andnow the sliding scale is we need to test everyone to open up again

Its just blathering political nonsense at this point... everyone should write nasty leters to every politician until the pressure blows this apart
 
First the Walmart worker, and now the family of a nursing home resident in KS.

IMO the specter of wrongful death lawsuits has the potential to paralyze the process of getting back to normal as business owners and even governments evaluate the liability risk of opening up. We created this monster by treating this thing like a more infectious flu with an Ebola mortality rate. Seems like a very complicated situation where the guiderails of responsible behavior are arbitrary.
 
The discredited WHO?

Could you cheer any harder for this colossally stupid shut down?

It was a statement of fact, Tim. Discredited? The WHO wasn’t the one talking about injecting disinfectant.

Deal with reality and quit victimizing yourself. Please. This sucks for everyone.
 
First the Walmart worker, and now the family of a nursing home resident in KS.

IMO the specter of wrongful death lawsuits has the potential to paralyze the process of getting back to normal as business owners and even governments evaluate the liability risk of opening up. We created this monster by treating this thing like a more infectious flu with an Ebola mortality rate. Seems like a very complicated situation where the guiderails of responsible behavior are arbitrary.

Not to be rude, but most people in nursing homes aren’t healthy anyway...they could die at any time from stuff other than Rona...yet nobody uses for wrongful death then...
 
The WHO is saying antibodies MAY not protect as there’s no evidence of that yet.

There are outliers to any infectious disease. People who don’t develop a normal immune response. But this is all over the world now. If reinfection was common we would know it by now. This is nothing more than a scare tactic IMO.
 
The two virologists talking about how this lockdown is impacting our immunity is really infuriating. So we locked down as they've prescribed and when we open up bam we're even more likely to get it than we were before the lockdown! MFs should pay and pay big time for this malfeasance.
 
So another thing you are starting to see a lot of articles about the lockdown beginning to fail... they know this because they are collectively tracking cell phone locations... two generations of liberals ago would have flipped their collective **** over that invasion of privacy...

From the noted right-wing rag USA Today:

https://www.usatoday.com/story/opin...YpQUAXnCw_mej6nhUOImVFGSlZU0dY9I5d6YWHOYvvy0U

Protests show two Americas — those who lost their jobs and those still getting paid

OK, so the country has been shut down for about a month, and we’re seeing cracks start to form. While some epidemiologists are talking about keeping things closed down for months longer, we’re also seeing growing public protests around the nation, as people call for restarting things.

Others shame them as “virus deniers” and accuse the protesters of wanting people to die. But it’s hard not to notice a class divide here. As with so many of America’s conflicts, the divide is between the people in the political/managerial class on the one hand and the people in the working class on the other. And as usual, the smugness and authoritarianism are pretty much all on one side.

The divide is best summed up in a tweet by Brian Stelter of CNN, and a response. Stelter tweeted: “I crawled in bed and cried for our pre-pandemic lives. Tears that had been waiting a month to escape. I wanted to share because it feels free to do so. Now is not a time for faux-invincibility. Journos are living this, hating this, like everyone else.”

An America without sympathy
Some people mocked this as unmanly — and in fact, it’s hard to imagine hearing this from, say, a British journalist during The Blitz — but one response cut deep: “Such bravery. Let's all take a moment to think about the journos working from home while millions have lost their jobs.”

Likewise, in Los Angeles — where less than half the county is working now — radio journalist Steve Gregory asked the L.A. County Board of Supervisors whether any of them were willing to take voluntary pay cuts during this crisis. He was told by the chair that his question was “irresponsible,” which is to say embarrassing and inconvenient. (By contrast, New Zealand’s senior officials, including the prime minister, are taking a 20% pay cut.)

There really are two Americas here: Those still getting a paycheck from government, corporations or universities, and those who are unemployed, or seeing their small businesses suffer due to shutdowns. And the America still getting paid is, so far, not showing a whole lot of sympathy for the America that isn’t.

Our view:Small business rescue needs not only more money but also fewer rules

That’s a formula for disaster, and it has been made worse by the heavy-handed approach taken by some government officials enforcing quarantines. We’ve seen news story after news story of officials going after people whose actions pose no danger of contagion — lone joggers on a beach, lone paddleboarders off the California coast, a father throwing a ball to his daughter in a public park — and every time that happens the shutdown loses moral authority.

It’s no surprise that a major center of resistance to the shutdown has emerged in Michigan, whose Gov. Gretchen Whitmer has shown all the sensitivity of an angry third-grade teacher in administering a shutdown regime that often makes no sense — banning sales of seeds in stores that are open for other purposes, or allowing sailboating but banning powerboating. Her response to the protests, a threat to extend shutdowns further, seems calculated to inflame things further.

We need leaders with humility, empathy and self-discipline
Then there are the hypocritical gestures, like Chicago Mayor Lori Lightfoot’s illicit haircut, which she justified on the grounds that she’s in the public eye. Yes, Mayor, you are, but you’re being judged on your conduct, not your hairstyle, and your conduct looks bad.

People don’t appreciate being lectured and condescended to and bossed around. They especially don’t appreciate being urged to sacrifice by people who make no sacrifices themselves. And that’s a different sort of class divide: When rulers ask for sacrifices without making any, they’re displaying a distinct lack of, well, class.

Dear Congress:Don’t let small businesses die of the coronavirus. We still need help.

Ultimately, this rising resentment is itself a failure of public health, and of public health administration. You can complain that people are irrational and resentful, that they don’t “believe in science,” or whatever. But people are what they are, and their response to epidemics is surprisingly predictable. If your messaging — and your behavior — inspires resentment that causes people to resist and ignore public health messages, then you have failed at your job, whatever the amount of scientific knowledge you bring to bear.

Sadly, to succeed in their job, our leaders will need to possess humility, empathy and self-discipline. Those traits are in sadly short supply in our leadership class. We will all pay a price for that, though if recent history is any guide, our leaders will pay less than the rest of us.

Glenn Harlan Reynolds, a University of Tennessee law professor and the author of "The New School: How the Information Age Will Save American Education from Itself," is a member of USA TODAY's Board of Contributors.
 
Ellen Pompeo, the actress from Greys Anatomy had a tweet saying the protestors didnt care about medical staff. Her pompous, holier than thou attitude was disgusting. Man I hope there is a huge backlash for these fake allies of the deep state.
 
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/full-list-covid-19-tests-per-day

So at first the testing talking point was we were so far behind every else for the first few weeks

Then our testing surpassed everyone else so it became we needed to test at the same pace they did for swine flu... (even though that was a pathetic testing effort that struggled early too) that effort tested a million people within five months of the first us case... we blew past that pace by the end of last month.

So then it became we needed 150,000 tests per day to open up

Well we blew past that andnow the sliding scale is we need to test everyone to open up again

Its just blathering political nonsense at this point... everyone should write nasty leters to every politician until the pressure blows this apart

Thank you, my searches failed at finding that graph, but I did see that some say we will need to have between 3 million and 30 million tests per day to return to normal.The expectations of testing are ridiculous and I could imagine not even realistic.
 
Discredited? The WHO wasn’t the one talking about injecting disinfectant.

Now you're going to argue that that corrupt organization is not corrupt and has not been discredited by the very leaders of this country? That the WHO is not politically misaligned? That their leader is not a former Ethiopian terrorist who's in China's pockets?

Not only are you cheering for this lockdown to continue ad infinitum, but it appears you're a bit of a China fan as well
 
Thanking Cucktime for this good link.

-----------------------

If COVID-19 Has a Low Infection Fatality Rate, How Many Will Die?

Two studies by researchers associated with Stanford University and the University of Southern California have deployed antibody blood tests seeking to determine what percentage of people in two California counties have been infected with the novel coronavirus that causes COVID-19. Based on their population screening tests, the researchers estimated that 2.49 to 4.16 percent of the residents of Santa Clara County (Silicon Valley) and 2.8 to 5.6 percent of the residents of Los Angeles County have been infected.

In the case of Santa Clara County, that would mean that by early April between 48,000 and 81,000 people had been infected, which is 50 to 85-fold more than the number of confirmed cases at that time. The results of the Los Angeles County study imply that approximately 221,000 to 442,000 adults in the county already had the infection. That estimate is 28 to 55 times higher than confirmed cases at that time in that jurisdiction.

The finding that a huge proportion of coronavirus infections in the U.S. have been going undetected immediately attracted the attention of biostatisticians working at other institutions. Many critiqued the Santa Clara County study, suggesting, among other flaws, that its false positive rate was possibly way too high and that the study was enriched with participants who were more likely to have been exposed to the virus than the general population of the county. Those questions are still being hashed out.

Let's assume that the results of these two studies are correct. If so, that means that the infection fatality rate—the percentage of infected people who will die of the disease—is somewhere between 0.12 and 0.2 percent in Santa Clara County and between 0.1 percent and 0.3 percent in Los Angeles County. The infection mortality rate for seasonal flu hovers around 0.1 percent. Please keep in mind that the rough calculations that follow are intended to tease out some of the implications about the possible future course of the pandemic from the two California studies.

Let's start by using Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) data from the 2017-2018 influenza season. That season was one of the worst in the last 10 years, with an estimated 45 million Americans becoming infected with the respiratory illness, of whom 34 million were over the age of 18. The adult population in 2018 was 254 million, which means that about 13.4 percent of adults were infected with symptomatic disease. As it happens, a 2016 review article has estimated that about 20 percent of people infected with flu viruses do not experience flu symptoms. This is likely because many asymptomatic carriers have some residual immunity from earlier infections. Nevertheless, those carriers can still shed viruses and infect other people. Including the asymptomatic cases of flu would imply that about 41 million adults, roughly 16 percent of the adult population, had contracted flu during the 2017-2018 season.

The 2017-2018 infection fatality rate (IFR) for symptomatic illness for the whole U.S. population was a bit higher than average at around 0.13 percent. A rough estimate for the IFR for symptomatic U.S. adults suffering from influenza was around 0.18 percent and the IFR for both symptomatic and asymptomatic adults was around 0.15 percent.

Again assuming that estimates in the two California studies are in the ballpark, the big difference between seasonal influenza and COVID-19 is the percentage of the population that is likely to become infected. The extent of influenza epidemics is constrained by the fact that a high percentage of the population has already developed immunity to the disease, either through previous infections or via vaccination. The novel coronavirus is attacking a population that has neither developed immunity to it nor has access to an effective vaccine with which to ward it off.

Harvard epidemiologist Marc Lipsitch has estimated that eventually between 20 and 60 percent of adult Americans could be infected with the virus. Again, there are about 254 million Americans over age 18 as of 2018. So let's use the Los Angeles County study's range of 0.1 to 0.3 percent IFR for the coronavirus to get a rough estimate of the number of Americans who might die from COVID-19.

In a more optimistic scenario, only 20 percent of adult Americans are infected and the IFR is only 0.1 percent, thus implying that only 50,800 adult Americans would likely die of the disease. Considering that the current death toll from the epidemic as of April 21 is nearly 44,000, this optimistic scenario seems implausible. Now let's go full pessimism: Assume 60 percent of adult Americans are infected and the IFR is 0.3 percent. In that case, the number of COVID-19 deaths among American adults would exceed 450,000.

The two California studies estimate that the percentage of the U.S. adult population that is infected is between 2.5 and 5.6 percent. This yields an estimate of adult Americans already infected ranging from 6.4 to 14.2 million. Given that 44,000 have died of the disease, this calculation produces IFRs ranging between 0.7 and 0.3 percent.

Yet another way to calculate possible IFRs is to multiply by the low and high rates of undiagnosed cases implied in the two studies. At the low end, the Los Angeles County study suggested that undiagnosed cases were 28-fold greater than diagnosed cases. At the high end, the Santa Clara County study reported an 85-fold ratio. Since about 800,000 cases have been diagnosed in the U.S. as of April 21, that would imply that between 22.4 million and 68 million Americans have already been infected by the novel coronavirus. Using those estimated infections yields a range of 0.2 percent to 0.06 percent for a COVID-19 IFRs.

It is worth noting that a recent German study reported an IFR for COVID-19 at about 0.4 percent.

Many critical biostaticians noted, as I did, that the California studies imply that the COVID-19 infections must be very widespread to produce the excess mortality seen in places like New York City, meaning that essentially most New Yorkers must already have been infected. That seems implausible.

One additional observation: Both California studies were conducted by academic and private sector researchers and supported by private funders. The government efforts at population screening for coronavirus antibody prevalence are lagging behind.

Epidemiologists are trying to see through the murk of the ongoing pandemic. These preliminary studies are part of that ongoing process and absolutely should not be taken as the last word.
 
Pa. removes 200 deaths from state coronavirus count as questions mount about reporting process, accuracy.

https://www.foxnews.com/us/pa-remov...estions-mount-reporting-process-data-accuracy

Overall deaths have decreased in the US amid this virus!?!?!?
This appeared in the comments section:

According to data obtained from the CDC’s National Center for Health Statistics Mortality Surveillance System website, total U.S. deaths for the first three weeks of March are DOWN 10% from the average of the prior four years for the same three week period.
The average for weeks 9 through 11 for the four prior years was a total of 170,555 deaths. For weeks 9 through 11 this year, the total is 153,015, meaning 17,540 fewer people died in America during the first three weeks of March than could be reasonably expected. And the gap between historic deaths and weekly deaths is widening. For week 11, just 47,655 Americans died, 8,773 and 15% fewer than the average for week 11 in the prior four years. And while data on week 12 is not complete, it is trending similar to week 11 and will likely be down by 15% (around 8,700 deaths less than expected) even though 1,919 COVID-19 deaths were reported (in week beginning 3/22).
 
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