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The FDA is and always has been a hot mess of dishonest bureaucracy.
The Coronavirus thread
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This is the same mindset in regard to using hydroxychloroquine on those that show symptoms. The excuse is "there are no controlled studies". So what!
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Or at least by the halftime cliche factory after they've come out comatose and started another season sleepwalking.
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Hard to disagree with Mike Rowe:
Mike Rowe
March 19 at 3:58 PM ·
Mike – I just re-watched your Safety Third special on DVD. Genius. Couldn’t help but wonder your current take, since you and 7 million of your neighbors in the Bay Area have been ordered to “shelter in place.” What do you think? Is it unreasonable to wonder if this is all a giant overreaction?
Greg Marsh
Hi Greg –
It’s true. I’ve been sent to my room for the next three weeks. And yes, I do have some thoughts on the length of my sequestration, and the role of safety in the age of coronavirus.
For the uninitiated, I coined the expression “Safety Third” back in 2008, during an episode of Dirty Jobs. It was a smart-*** way for me to challenge the ubiquity of those Safety First banners, and debunk the popular notion that safety was always the most important thing on the job site.
After years of Safety First indoctrination, and a front row seat to it's unintended consequences, “Safety Third,” became a slightly subversive way for my crew and I to remind each other that our safety was in fact, our responsibility, and that no amount of compliance could ever keep us out of danger. Safety, I argued, was not a value to be “ranked,” but rather, a state of mind to be maintained. Thus, “Safety Third” became an hour-long special that stirred up a great deal of conversation around personal responsibility, risk equilibrium, and the unintended consequences of ranking Safety above everything else.
Which of course, is precisely what our leaders are doing right now.
Today, in the name of safety, the United States of America has been shut down. Which brings me to your question – are we overreacting?
I honestly don’t know. I’m not an expert, and I’m in no rush to be labelled a “virus denier.” But I am concerned that the medicine we’re prescribing might turn out to be more deadly than the virus we’re trying to kill – especially if we don’t know the criteria by which we can re-emerge from our bunkers. And I’m not alone.
Here’s a rather remarkable article I saw this morning, by a medical professor at Stanford named John Ioannidis. http://bit.ly/2QvjsWv
I think it’s vital to read and consider every word. It’s a measured, data-driven analysis of what we’re doing based on the actual evidence at hand. As the headline reads, Dr. Ioannidis believes we are making monumentally impactful decisions without reliable data. Measures this draconian, he argues, demand a lot more evidence than what we’ve seen so far.
Is he right? Beats me. But he is a very respectable doctor at a very respectable institution with some very respectable credentials.
Here too, is another article offers some context from the situation in Italy, which most of the headlines do not. http://bit.ly/2Qtva40
Apparently, 99% of those who died over there, suffered from a myriad of pre-existing conditions. Are we looking at similar numbers over here? Are 99% of those who die from this virus already sick? How many here would have succumbed if this were just a really bad flu season, and how would their deaths be reported on the news?
Again, I don’t know. But I do know that recessions and depressions can impact a country in ways no less catastrophic than a pandemic. And we are most assuredly headed for both, if we continue to operate from a “Safety First” state of mind. Because “Safety First” is never a long-term solution.
For instance, after 9/11, we grounded all the planes for a while, because we needed some time to understand what the hell was going on. And, because we were terrified by an enemy we didn’t understand. But soon, we grew weary of being scared. We introduced new protocols to eliminate as much of the risk as we could and got back to the business of living.
Back in 1939, when London was being bombarded every single day, Britons were understandably terrified. They spent their days and nights in air raid shelters, hoping and praying the German bombs didn’t fall on them. Then, after a few weeks of unrelenting terror, they too, got bored with being scared. They reopened the shops. They reopened the schools. Even as the bombs fell on them, Britons adjusted to a new set of circumstances, and got back to the business of living. Why? Because safety was no longer first.
But this too, is part of the problem. We are being bombarded everyday with facts and information with extreme urgency but no context. Imagine for a moment, if the millions of automobile accidents in America were reported on with the same frenzied, up-to-the minute drama as each new virus infection? Imagine if all 40,000 annual automotive fatalities from those accidents, were announced in the same fashion as every virus fatality. Would any of us ever drive again?
To repeat, I don’t know if we’re overacting, but the manner in which the information is being disseminated suggests the situation is already catastrophic. Is it? According to Dr. Ioannidis, we’re treating a virus that MIGHT have devastating consequences, in a way that will GUARANTEE devastating consequences.
Personally, as an avowed non-expert with a large Facebook following, I do think a temporary shutdown makes sense, while we gather more information and answer some pressing questions. Who exactly does this affect? How exactly is it passed? Can you develop an immunity? Does it mutate and if so, how often? And of course, it's worth repeating that the lockdown wont work unless everyone participates, which is easier to do in Wuhan than it is during Spring Break in this country. Consequently, people are arguing over which is worse - hundreds of thousands of dead Americans, or another Great Depression. Unfortunately, I think that misses the point. I think the worst-case scenario, is both.
Consider this from Dr. Michael Osterholm, who’s quickly becoming one of the most respected voices in this space.
“This is not going to be like a blizzard,” he said, “this is a “coronavirus winter. It will last for months and months. A lot of people have made a decision to cancel events, large meetings, schools, etc., but what they haven't thought about is what it means if they make the decision to do this now. Tens of thousands of healthcare workers have kids in school. What will that do to their ability to care for the sick? Who will watch their kids?”
Remember, this is the man whose been telling us for years exactly what’s coming. And he’s been right at every turn. But he’s also telling us that shutting down the whole country for long periods of time is not the answer.
“How exactly, do you unring that bell?" he wonders. "If you put these closures into place now, with no criteria, how do you in August, September, or whatever, say OK, we're no longer going to do this anymore? If you didn't quarantine with criteria, what’s your criteria for getting back to normal?”
As I wrote the other day, it feels to me like America is going through the five stages of grief at varying speeds. Some of us are still in denial, some are angry, some are bargaining, some are depressed, some have accepted some version of the reality in which we currently find ourselves, and all of us are trying to keep up with the latest information which is bombarding us from all sides. The evidence is obviously sparse, but it would be a mistake in my view, to not treat this thing very, very seriously. If our hospitals become overrun with virus victims, the rest of the population will have no healthcare system at all. But, it’s equally dangerous to think that a long-term shutdown is the answer.
I don’t say this lightly. I have two elderly parents solidly in the “at risk” group, and believe me, I want to do all I can to protect them. But I also know that Safety First is no way to live indefinitely. We are at base, a Safety Third nation. We can’t remain in the air raid shelter indefinitely – if we do, they’ll be no country left, when we finally emerge.
Anyway Greg, your question is not at all unreasonable.
I just wish I had a better answer.
Mike
Mike Rowe
March 19 at 3:58 PM ·
Mike – I just re-watched your Safety Third special on DVD. Genius. Couldn’t help but wonder your current take, since you and 7 million of your neighbors in the Bay Area have been ordered to “shelter in place.” What do you think? Is it unreasonable to wonder if this is all a giant overreaction?
Greg Marsh
Hi Greg –
It’s true. I’ve been sent to my room for the next three weeks. And yes, I do have some thoughts on the length of my sequestration, and the role of safety in the age of coronavirus.
For the uninitiated, I coined the expression “Safety Third” back in 2008, during an episode of Dirty Jobs. It was a smart-*** way for me to challenge the ubiquity of those Safety First banners, and debunk the popular notion that safety was always the most important thing on the job site.
After years of Safety First indoctrination, and a front row seat to it's unintended consequences, “Safety Third,” became a slightly subversive way for my crew and I to remind each other that our safety was in fact, our responsibility, and that no amount of compliance could ever keep us out of danger. Safety, I argued, was not a value to be “ranked,” but rather, a state of mind to be maintained. Thus, “Safety Third” became an hour-long special that stirred up a great deal of conversation around personal responsibility, risk equilibrium, and the unintended consequences of ranking Safety above everything else.
Which of course, is precisely what our leaders are doing right now.
Today, in the name of safety, the United States of America has been shut down. Which brings me to your question – are we overreacting?
I honestly don’t know. I’m not an expert, and I’m in no rush to be labelled a “virus denier.” But I am concerned that the medicine we’re prescribing might turn out to be more deadly than the virus we’re trying to kill – especially if we don’t know the criteria by which we can re-emerge from our bunkers. And I’m not alone.
Here’s a rather remarkable article I saw this morning, by a medical professor at Stanford named John Ioannidis. http://bit.ly/2QvjsWv
I think it’s vital to read and consider every word. It’s a measured, data-driven analysis of what we’re doing based on the actual evidence at hand. As the headline reads, Dr. Ioannidis believes we are making monumentally impactful decisions without reliable data. Measures this draconian, he argues, demand a lot more evidence than what we’ve seen so far.
Is he right? Beats me. But he is a very respectable doctor at a very respectable institution with some very respectable credentials.
Here too, is another article offers some context from the situation in Italy, which most of the headlines do not. http://bit.ly/2Qtva40
Apparently, 99% of those who died over there, suffered from a myriad of pre-existing conditions. Are we looking at similar numbers over here? Are 99% of those who die from this virus already sick? How many here would have succumbed if this were just a really bad flu season, and how would their deaths be reported on the news?
Again, I don’t know. But I do know that recessions and depressions can impact a country in ways no less catastrophic than a pandemic. And we are most assuredly headed for both, if we continue to operate from a “Safety First” state of mind. Because “Safety First” is never a long-term solution.
For instance, after 9/11, we grounded all the planes for a while, because we needed some time to understand what the hell was going on. And, because we were terrified by an enemy we didn’t understand. But soon, we grew weary of being scared. We introduced new protocols to eliminate as much of the risk as we could and got back to the business of living.
Back in 1939, when London was being bombarded every single day, Britons were understandably terrified. They spent their days and nights in air raid shelters, hoping and praying the German bombs didn’t fall on them. Then, after a few weeks of unrelenting terror, they too, got bored with being scared. They reopened the shops. They reopened the schools. Even as the bombs fell on them, Britons adjusted to a new set of circumstances, and got back to the business of living. Why? Because safety was no longer first.
But this too, is part of the problem. We are being bombarded everyday with facts and information with extreme urgency but no context. Imagine for a moment, if the millions of automobile accidents in America were reported on with the same frenzied, up-to-the minute drama as each new virus infection? Imagine if all 40,000 annual automotive fatalities from those accidents, were announced in the same fashion as every virus fatality. Would any of us ever drive again?
To repeat, I don’t know if we’re overacting, but the manner in which the information is being disseminated suggests the situation is already catastrophic. Is it? According to Dr. Ioannidis, we’re treating a virus that MIGHT have devastating consequences, in a way that will GUARANTEE devastating consequences.
Personally, as an avowed non-expert with a large Facebook following, I do think a temporary shutdown makes sense, while we gather more information and answer some pressing questions. Who exactly does this affect? How exactly is it passed? Can you develop an immunity? Does it mutate and if so, how often? And of course, it's worth repeating that the lockdown wont work unless everyone participates, which is easier to do in Wuhan than it is during Spring Break in this country. Consequently, people are arguing over which is worse - hundreds of thousands of dead Americans, or another Great Depression. Unfortunately, I think that misses the point. I think the worst-case scenario, is both.
Consider this from Dr. Michael Osterholm, who’s quickly becoming one of the most respected voices in this space.
“This is not going to be like a blizzard,” he said, “this is a “coronavirus winter. It will last for months and months. A lot of people have made a decision to cancel events, large meetings, schools, etc., but what they haven't thought about is what it means if they make the decision to do this now. Tens of thousands of healthcare workers have kids in school. What will that do to their ability to care for the sick? Who will watch their kids?”
Remember, this is the man whose been telling us for years exactly what’s coming. And he’s been right at every turn. But he’s also telling us that shutting down the whole country for long periods of time is not the answer.
“How exactly, do you unring that bell?" he wonders. "If you put these closures into place now, with no criteria, how do you in August, September, or whatever, say OK, we're no longer going to do this anymore? If you didn't quarantine with criteria, what’s your criteria for getting back to normal?”
As I wrote the other day, it feels to me like America is going through the five stages of grief at varying speeds. Some of us are still in denial, some are angry, some are bargaining, some are depressed, some have accepted some version of the reality in which we currently find ourselves, and all of us are trying to keep up with the latest information which is bombarding us from all sides. The evidence is obviously sparse, but it would be a mistake in my view, to not treat this thing very, very seriously. If our hospitals become overrun with virus victims, the rest of the population will have no healthcare system at all. But, it’s equally dangerous to think that a long-term shutdown is the answer.
I don’t say this lightly. I have two elderly parents solidly in the “at risk” group, and believe me, I want to do all I can to protect them. But I also know that Safety First is no way to live indefinitely. We are at base, a Safety Third nation. We can’t remain in the air raid shelter indefinitely – if we do, they’ll be no country left, when we finally emerge.
Anyway Greg, your question is not at all unreasonable.
I just wish I had a better answer.
Mike
Right there with you, my daughter now has 3 confirmed cases in her unit. Dad's do tend to worry...
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Particularly when she is a type 1 diabetic. Luckily she is pretty well controlled so it shouldn't be an issue but just one more thing for dad to worry about. She on the other hand is making money unlike many right now. They were just told if they go to mandatory overtime they get 3x base pay. She will pay off a big chunk of her loans at this rate.
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If the government over-reacts (like I think it is now), and the outbreak is not as bad as projected, they will claim credit. If they over-react and there is a bad breakout anyway, they can't be criticized. If they don't over-react and the outbreak is not as bad as projected, they won't get credit and probably criticized anyway, and if they don't over-react and there is a bad breakout, they get blamed.
There is massive political risk to temper the government's response, and no upside to it.
There is massive political risk to temper the government's response, and no upside to it.
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Someone should create an app that lets you block certain people when they show up on your TV. Like Schumer.
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Yup. It's idiotic...if someone's dying, give it to them. Whatever the side effects they are unlikely to be worse than death.
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Oh that would be most excellent. If i can't get term limits to send them out I can certainly block them out. Which i do anyway since they offer nothing but a bunch of bitching 24/7.
https://thedispatch.com/p/timeline-the-regulationsand-regulatorsthat
There you go Flu. Probably bad to be calling you Flu now
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Think of all the rural counties with no cases that have to follow the shutdown. I don’t like that Fauci didn’t say “some Americans”. Are we all going to be isolating six weeks from now as the New York cases slowly trickle to a halt? I fear that we will.
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Fauci is Deep State Hack who marshaled many times more funding for HIV from the government than that to combat heart disease and cancer which kills many more Americans to this day.
He's going to milk this IMO for maximum extraction of public monies for Big Pharma/CDC Complex consistent with Event 201 architecture and for collateral damage to Trump. He's a Hillary guy.
Here's hoping and praying Trump is willing to roll the dice relatively sooner than later and not defer 100% to the "experts."
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Not one person making decisions right now has any real risk of being financially ruined. They may lose millions, but they have many millions more
I don’t like/wish death upon people.
But the critical cases do seem that it’s the expected demographic that dies to your typical flu season.
We’ll still probably see an overload in our medical system this week just because the projected to be like italy narrative is being played
But the critical cases do seem that it’s the expected demographic that dies to your typical flu season.
We’ll still probably see an overload in our medical system this week just because the projected to be like italy narrative is being played
I guess we’ll find out if this thing is for real this week.
Take pre caution just in case
Take pre caution just in case
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No one in their right minds I have heard has said our outcome will be like Italy, the continuing point is we have to keep it from being like Italy.
Total New Total Deaths New Deaths Recovered Active Serious/Crit Per 1M POP
Italy 53,578 +6,557 4,825 +793 6,072 42,681 2,857 886
USA 22,738 +3,355 288 +32 171 22,279 64 69
We are doing a better job of distancing but New York City is a disaster of cases so far.
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Cases New York 10,356 New +1,958 Deaths 56 New Deaths +10 Active 10,300
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I assume those are confirmed cases by testing? We know the CDC applies a multiplier to confirmed flu cases based upon those who confirmed have it, but don't enter the medical system. By similar applied metrics, it would seem the actual Covid cases are higher by whatever multiplier factor (X10, X12, X16, etc) than being reported by confirmed positives, which makes the death rate probably much lower than is being reported and used to spook people into compliance.
We're effectively shutting down civilization for a virus that has killed 12,000 worldwide thus far with the worst over in China. By contrast, more people have died of flu in the US (23,000) that have died of Corona in entire world. As bad as this may be pockets notwithstanding, the numbers aren't driving the public response. The agendas such as Event 201 and universal vaccine are and this is a shame.
Only though making people feel the "terror" and economic disruptions and mental distress of a virus that won't seriously affect most people, can the powers that be gain complete dominion over our health choices and what they inject into us. We're being herded into pens.
The social contract is about to be rewritten less along the lines of the Founders, and more along the lines of Anthony Fauci and Bill Gates.
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I agree with you there. Seems like we've taken a one size fits all approach for an extremely diverse country. A more surgical approach would be more logical IMO.
It's like, let's kill the patient (the country) to prevent it from getting sick.
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Its spread by coughing and sneezing but lets have 10 PSAs a day about washing your hands.
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Devasting news for the doctors and health care workers on the front lines. True heroes, may they rest in peace.
<samp class="EmbedCode-container"><code class="EmbedCode-code"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">NEW: 17 doctors die of coronavirus in Italy, 3,654 medical staff there infected- from CNN's Livia Borghese in Rome. The bravery and dedication of medical staff is astounding.</p>— Bianca Nobilo (@bianca_nobilo) <a href="https://twitter.com/bianca_nobilo/status/1241117231481749504?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 20, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script> </code></samp>
<samp class="EmbedCode-container"><code class="EmbedCode-code"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">NEW: 17 doctors die of coronavirus in Italy, 3,654 medical staff there infected- from CNN's Livia Borghese in Rome. The bravery and dedication of medical staff is astounding.</p>— Bianca Nobilo (@bianca_nobilo) <a href="https://twitter.com/bianca_nobilo/status/1241117231481749504?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 20, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script> </code></samp>
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Omnious to see the curve in US spiking at a faster rate than China, Italy and Iran, at this stage of the pandemic. Stay safe everyone.
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This may not be a terrible idea, to send fast response teams to the homes of those afflicted, as opposed to bringing people in to hospitals. It's like walking into a full room with a hand grenade.
<samp class="EmbedCode-container"><code class="EmbedCode-code"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">“All my friends in Italy tell me the same thing,” Cereda said. “[Covid-19] patients started arriving and the rate of infection in other patients soared. That is one thing that probably led to the current disaster.” <a href="https://t.co/VUM61VhqOn">https://t.co/VUM61VhqOn</a></p>— Corey Taylor (@onpubcom) <a href="https://twitter.com/onpubcom/status/1241461763280945155?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 21, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script> </code></samp>
<samp class="EmbedCode-container"><code class="EmbedCode-code"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">“All my friends in Italy tell me the same thing,” Cereda said. “[Covid-19] patients started arriving and the rate of infection in other patients soared. That is one thing that probably led to the current disaster.” <a href="https://t.co/VUM61VhqOn">https://t.co/VUM61VhqOn</a></p>— Corey Taylor (@onpubcom) <a href="https://twitter.com/onpubcom/status/1241461763280945155?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 21, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script> </code></samp>
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Confirmed Coronavirus Cases Are Growing Faster In The United States Than Any Other Country In The World
https://www.forbes.com/sites/trevor...-any-other-country-in-the-world/#6158ee857e72
https://www.forbes.com/sites/trevor...-any-other-country-in-the-world/#6158ee857e72
Plot of coronavirus cases in the United States over the last month (2/19 to 3/19)
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