The Coronavirus thread

[hamster]

The scariest comment I heard in this whole thing was Fauci saying life wouldn’t return to normal until there is a vaccine. What does that mean, exactly?

Fauci is correct, in theory. Antibody testing is crucial. Those immune get back to work. Sharing those antibodies is crucial. There will still be a degree of social distancing/mask wearing until vaccine. Most vulnerable will still remain quarentined,

At least that is how I see it.

 

[oneforthebus]

Fauci is correct, in theory. Antibody testing is crucial. Those immune get back to work. Sharing those antibodies is crucial. There will still be a degree of social distancing/mask wearing until vaccine. Most vulnerable will still remain quarentined,

At least that is how I see it.

Agree. “Not normal“ doesn’t have to mean totally shut down. There is no way in hell this can go on for 12-18 months without completely destroying society as we know it. We are going to have to let even those non-immune people who are at low risk get back to some semblance of normal life with some precautions. We are never going to get to zero cases and zero deaths and we will have to accept that. I would rather risk death than destroy my children’s futures.

 

[Supersteeler]

Agree. “Not normal“ doesn’t have to mean totally shut down. There is no way in hell this can go on for 12-18 months without completely destroying society as we know it. We are going to have to let even those non-immune people who are at low risk get back to some semblance of normal life with some precautions. We are never going to get to zero cases and zero deaths and we will have to accept that. I would rather risk death than destroy my children’s futures.

Based on what the doctors are saying as far as the next week being the crest of cases and then lessening after that, I really think most business will be opening back up around May 1st and most people will be back to work. I doubt that schools will go back in session this school year but I think mostly all other things will be opening back up at that point. The numbers they are reporting suggest that cases will be drastically trending down by that point.

 

[Steeler Pride]

AND the model keeps getting lower in terms of mortality rate from the virus. The other funny thing is that even on this official model, the number of deaths they are reporting each day is still MUCH higher in many states than what the health departments in those states is showing...makes me wonder where they are pulling their data from. Finally, before anyone says that this is because social distancing is working, the models have always assumed full social distancing.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

 

[IndySteel]

 

[Tim Steelersfan]

The other funny thing is that even on this official model, the number of deaths they are reporting each day is still MUCH higher in many states than what the health departments in those states is showing

Because they are bogusly claiming all deaths COVID deaths. Die from Pneumonia? COVID. Test positive for the virus but fall over from a heart attack? COVID death. Have the virus and shot and killed in a drive by? COVID.

Finally, before anyone says that this is because social distancing is working, the models have always assumed full social distancing.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

Don't tell Trog that. This epic shut down must continue. Because....because....because....WE DON'T KNOW what might happen!


---------------------

Your link shows the following projected deaths:

60,415 COVID-19 deaths projected by August 4, 2020

If true, two years ago the Flu took 80,000 Americans.

And we did all of this....infuriating.

 

[CharlesDavenport]

When the entire world, save for Sweden, decides in favor of social distancing, how can anyone without a degree in epidemiology or infectious disease question it?

You mean like Knut Wittkowski, previously the longtime head of the Department of Biostatistics, Epidemiology, and Research Design at the Rockefeller University in New York City? Here is what he had to say -

..the coronavirus could be “exterminated” if we permitted most people to lead normal lives and sheltered the most vulnerable parts of society until the danger had passed.

“What people are trying to do is flatten the curve. I don’t really know why. But, what happens is if you flatten the curve, you also prolong, to widen it, and it takes more time. And I don’t see a good reason for a respiratory disease to stay in the population longer than necessary,” he said.

“With all respiratory diseases, the only thing that stops the disease is herd immunity. About 80% of the people need to have had contact with the virus, and the majority of them won’t even have recognized that they were infected, or they had very, very mild symptoms, especially if they are children. So, it’s very important to keep the schools open and kids mingling to spread the virus to get herd immunity as fast as possible, and then the elderly people, who should be separated, and the nursing homes should be closed during that time, can come back and meet their children and grandchildren after about 4 weeks when the virus has been exterminated,” he added.

Wittkowski argued that the standard cycle of respiratory diseases is a two-week outbreak, including a peak, after which “it’s gone.” He pointed out that even in a regime of “social distancing,” the virus will still find ways to spread, just more slowly:

You cannot stop the spread of a respiratory disease within a family, and you cannot stop it from spreading with neighbors, with people who are delivering, who are physicians—anybody. People are social, and even in times of social distancing, they have contacts, and any of those contacts could spread the disease. It will go slowly, and so it will not build up herd immunity, but it will happen. And it will go on forever unless we let it go.

Asked about Anthony Fauci, the White House medical expert who for weeks has been predicting significant numbers of COVID-19 deaths in America as well as major ongoing disruptions to daily life possibly for years, Wittkowski replied: “Well, I’m not paid by the government, so I’m entitled to actually do science.”

https://www.thecollegefix.com/epide...uld-be-exterminated-if-lockdowns-were-lifted/

 

[oneforthebus]

You mean like Knut Wittkowski, previously the longtime head of the Department of Biostatistics, Epidemiology, and Research Design at the Rockefeller University in New York City? Here is what he had to say -



https://www.thecollegefix.com/epide...uld-be-exterminated-if-lockdowns-were-lifted/

Sounds logical, unfortunately CNN will spend hours relaying the story of each outlier who dies, scaring the crap out of people. It's the new normal.

A young, healthy person dies of the flu...maybe gets a brief mention in your local newspaper if any at all. A young healthy person dies from this...the world is ending.

 

[Badcat]

Sounds logical, unfortunately CNN will spend hours relaying the story of each outlier who dies, scaring the crap out of people. It's the new normal.

A young, healthy person dies of the flu...maybe gets a brief mention in your local newspaper if any at all. A young healthy person dies from this...the world is ending.

To be fair, it's all news agencies. I'm tired of the sensationalism and out right biased bullshit they call "news". I have tried to find one, just one, news source that is completely unbiased and blasts nothing but cold hard truth and I've come up empty. Not a single one. Pathetic.

 

[Troglodyte]

Don't tell Trog that. This epic shut down must continue. Because....because....because....WE DON'T KNOW what might happen!


---------------------

Your link shows the following projected deaths:

60,415 COVID-19 deaths projected by August 4, 2020

If true, two years ago the Flu took 80,000 Americans.

And we did all of this....infuriating.

Tim, you’re cherry-picking figures in an attempt to support your argument. First of all, society has many precautions in place in the event that something unknown could happen. What makes dealing with a pandemic any different?

Do you really think that none of the 80,000 (again cherry-picked) that “died of the flu” didn’t have the same complications of those “not really dying from COVID-19”?

You assume the 60k would be the same with or without the shut down. Based on what? Your uneducated opinion? Why are you convinced YOU are right and the epidemiologist are ALL wrong?

 

[Steeler Pride]

Why are you convinced YOU are right and the epidemiologist are ALL wrong?

Which epidemiologists are we referring to? I have seen as many that state that everything done by the government is not the right course as I have those that say it is the right course. Should we listen to the ones who say we need to keep the country locked down for 18 months until we have a vaccine? At some point people need to realize that the epidemiologists are all humans, working off of limited data, and making as many projections off of guesstimates as they are off of concrete science.

 

[madinsomniac]

You mean like Knut Wittkowski, previously the longtime head of the Department of Biostatistics, Epidemiology, and Research Design at the Rockefeller University in New York City? Here is what he had to say -



https://www.thecollegefix.com/epide...uld-be-exterminated-if-lockdowns-were-lifted/

Pretty much what some of is have been saying... I don’t begrudge them a lockdown in a novel virus...but once a grasp pf how severe it is and how to deal with it is on it, you don’t keep that going indefinitely... despite public misopinion on it, martial law doesn’t suspend constitutional rights... the government can, at its own peril, keep bars and restaurants and other permitted businesses closed, but it cannot suspend inalienable right such as the right to assemble or practice religion...

Unless you want a potentially worse scenario they need to lift this at the start of may... most people will still social distance
anyhow and the peak correlates with the warmest dryest season

 

[oneforthebus]

To be fair, it's all news agencies. I'm tired of the sensationalism and out right biased bullshit they call "news". I have tried to find one, just one, news source that is completely unbiased and blasts nothing but cold hard truth and I've come up empty. Not a single one. Pathetic.

You;re absolutely right. Seems there is no such thing as a news story that doesn't have an angle or agenda anymore, on both sides. The bias used to be subtle years ago, now they don't even try to hide it.

 

[Tim Steelersfan]

Why are you convinced YOU are right and the epidemiologist are ALL wrong?

Did you just ******* say that?? LOL

I AM playing Monday morning QB here. I have the benefit of hind sight (to a degree right now). So far these experts (all of them) are wrong to varying degrees, most of them wrong to very bad degrees.

The models? All ******* garbage.
The predictions based off of those models? They are so far off mankind should be embarrassed.

Death rate? Lower than predicted.
Infections? Lower than predicted.
Hospital beds needed? WAY lower than predicted
We are gonna run out of vents!!! Wellllll, not really.

EVERY day now the #s are moved down. Now they are predicting we won't have as many die from CV19 as we do from the flu....

Am I right saying we over-reacted and this is proving to be less deadly than the flu? Damn well looks like it. And Charles quoted a very bright epidemiologist who said social distancing MAY have made this worse because (ah **** it you can read it).

But keep on hoping for a longer lock down...one that is going to result in more American deaths than CV19 is going to. That is indeed rich.

 

[Troglodyte]

Which epidemiologists are we referring to? I have seen as many that state that everything done by the government is not the right course as I have those that say it is the right course. Should we listen to the ones who say we need to keep the country locked down for 18 months until we have a vaccine? At some point people need to realize that the epidemiologists are all humans, working off of limited data, and making as many projections off of guesstimates as they are off of concrete science.

Really? Could you share ones in opposition? I’m referring to the ones the world leaders listened to when deciding to shut down society. Yes, there are many unknowns, not the least of which is getting people in a free society to co-operate with limited ability to control actually them.

 

[madinsomniac]

Did you just ******* say that?? LOL

I AM playing Monday morning QB here. I have the benefit of hind sight (to a degree right now). So far these experts (all of them) are wrong to varying degrees, most of them wrong to very bad degrees.

The models? All ******* garbage.
The predictions based off of those models? They are so far off mankind should be embarrassed.

Death rate? Lower than predicted.
Infections? Lower than predicted.
Hospital beds needed? WAY lower than predicted
We are gonna run out of vents!!! Wellllll, not really.

EVERY day now the #s are moved down. Now they are predicting we won't have as many die from CV19 as we do from the flu....

Am I right saying we over-reacted and this is proving to be less deadly than the flu? Damn well looks like it. And Charles quoted a very bright epidemiologist who said social distancing MAY have made this worse because (ah **** it you can read it).

But keep on hoping for a longer lock down...one that is going to result in more American deaths than CV19 is going to. That is indeed rich.

Actually if you paid attention to the virologist and medical mathematicians from the beginning of the hysteria, they repeatedly pointed to the quarantine numbers and massive test swaths in south korea and estimated around a sub0.65% death rate with 20% of the population contracting it. That was before social distancing... probably quartering that now

 

[madinsomniac]

Really? Could you share ones in opposition? I’m referring to the ones the world leaders listened to when deciding to shut down society. Yes, there are many unknowns, not the least of which is getting people in a free society to co-operate with limited ability to control actually them.

Really, the leading virologist in the uk aligns with this point of view... appeal to authority plans don’t work when both sides of an argument have qualified people advocating it... at some point facts have to play a part, and we can lay out a pretty compelling case that the virus is already everywhere, the death rate is low, and the negatives to keeping up the lockdown outweighs the slim positive

 

[Tim Steelersfan]

Actually if you paid attention to the virologist and medical mathematicians from the beginning of the hysteria, they repeatedly pointed to the quarantine numbers and massive test swaths in south korea and estimated around a sub0.65% death rate with 20% of the population contracting it. That was before social distancing... probably quartering that now

Actually if you paid attention, many were predicting well over 1%. Fauci himself said it would be 10X worse than than the flu at a 1% death rate, nowhere close to 0.65%.

The models all (as I've seen it) accounted for social distancing in their numbers. Their models assumed social distancing (it was baked in). When 100,000-240,000 American deaths were being predicted, we were deep into a social lock down.

Quote Originally Posted by Steeler Pride View Post
Finally, before anyone says that this is because social distancing is working, the models have always assumed full social distancing.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

EVERY study/estimate has been walked back heavily in the past week.

I get over predicting to err on the side of caution. Just pointing out, they erred.

 

[Steeler Pride]

Really? Could you share ones in opposition? I’m referring to the ones the world leaders listened to when deciding to shut down society. Yes, there are many unknowns, not the least of which is getting people in a free society to co-operate with limited ability to control actually them.

So because someone didn't listen to that person, that makes their opinion irrelevant? Maybe if NASA had listened to Roger Boisjoly the crew of the Challenger would still be alive. Maybe if the Titanic and listened to the crew of the Mesaba warning of icebergs in their area, the swimming pool on the titanic might have a little less water in it today. Maybe if the medical community had listened to Alexander Fleming we wouldn't have antibiotic resistant strains of germs today. Maybe if Condoleza Rice had listened to Cofer Black when he warned of imminent terrorist attacks on the US, maybe 9/11 is diverted. Just because people choose not to listen, does not make their opinions or point of view incorrect.

 

[Steeltime]

Trog, sorry, you were wrong and have been wrong repeatedly on this issue. That is a statement of fact. You warned of hundreds of thousands of deaths in the United States without severe mitigation, at a cost of trillions of dollars.

The models predicted that WITH mitigation in place - social distancing, i.e., economic shutdown - the United States would have between 100,000 and 240,000 deaths. It was THOSE numbers that drove every conversation, including yours of course. "Oh. My. God. A quarter million dead even with preventative measures?? Holy ****, lock it down!!"

But the numbers were wrong. Vastly, horrendously, stunningly, global-warming model wrong. And your reliance on what other nations did is simply a repeat of the same faulty numbers. Nations shut down their economies on the fear of 100,000 deaths, not 15,000. Fact.

So we as a nation spent many trillions of dollars - $3 trillion in government spending, at least that much in lost productivity - for an outcome that was never going to happen. We gave up our civil liberties in the process, not that you seem to care. Your reference to the extreme alarmist outcome - "It could have been a billion deaths!!" - is bullshit built on bullshit.

No, it was never going to be 240,000 Americans dead from the virus. No, a billion people, or 100 million, or 10 million, or even 1 million were not going to die. The whole thing was an overblown panic led by bullshit numbers from a stunningly faulty and erroneous computer model, where the reality shows that "60,000 Americans will die of the Chinese flu" - when in fact the number is clearly lower than 60,000 since the current process is to attribute every death to the Chinese flu if the decedent had the goddamn Chinese flu, even when in fact the dude died of a heart attack.

So are 40,000 Americans going to die from the Chinese flu? 30,000? 20,000? Very likely.

Meanwhile, 12 million Americans are dying an economic death, can't pay their bills, likely have no goddamn job to return to, will face foreclosure or eviction.

For what? Some bullshit overblown panic that was driven by breathtakingly phony numbers? What a giant clusterfuck. Maybe we should have noticed, at some point, that Beijing and Shanghai were not collecting the dead every morning. That may have given us a clue.

 

[oneforthebus]

Actually if you paid attention, many were predicting well over 1%. Fauci himself said it would be 10X worse than than the flu at a 1% death rate, nowhere close to 0.65%.

The models all (as I've seen it) accounted for social distancing in their numbers. Their models assumed social distancing (it was baked in). When 100,000-240,000 American deaths were being predicted, we were deep into a social lock down.



EVERY study/estimate has been walked back heavily in the past week.

I get over predicting to err on the side of caution. Just pointing out, they erred.

Yes, all of these models were based on full social distancing.

Has anyone ever modelled what would have happened if the world was allowed to stay open, with more moderate precautions like enforced handwashing, mandatory wearing of face coverings, elderly and sick staying isolated, and maintaining greater distances between people in public places?

No, people wouldn't have been perfect at it. They aren't perfect at what we're doing now. But perhaps we could have avoided the complete devastation of the economy and 6 trillion in new debt with slightly less effective results? But no, it was presented to us as a "Do this or you're all gonna die" kind of choice and it's clear that was just not accurate. To what degree we will sadly never know.

 

[SteelerInLebanon]

Did you just ******* say that?? LOL

I AM playing Monday morning QB here. I have the benefit of hind sight (to a degree right now). So far these experts (all of them) are wrong to varying degrees, most of them wrong to very bad degrees.

The models? All ******* garbage.
The predictions based off of those models? They are so far off mankind should be embarrassed.

Death rate? Lower than predicted.
Infections? Lower than predicted.
Hospital beds needed? WAY lower than predicted
We are gonna run out of vents!!! Wellllll, not really.

EVERY day now the #s are moved down. Now they are predicting we won't have as many die from CV19 as we do from the flu....

Am I right saying we over-reacted and this is proving to be less deadly than the flu? Damn well looks like it. And Charles quoted a very bright epidemiologist who said social distancing MAY have made this worse because (ah **** it you can read it).

But keep on hoping for a longer lock down...one that is going to result in more American deaths than CV19 is going to. That is indeed rich.

No I think you are wrong in that we did not overreact. I think these numbers bare a direct correlation to out actions. To many only look a the models and see the mid line and up but if you look at many of the models closely and look at the shaded area corresponding to the midline you would see many of these do have us within their margin of error. If we had not acted this would have been likey worse than the flu once again not be cause it itself is more deadly but we would have seen much higher rates of Vent use and ICU use. At least here in Ohio the models have been adjusted all along to track more closely with what is being seen as they took in to account the results of our efforts.

I look at it this way we may never be able to prove if we overreacted but thank god we didn't prove the opposite at this point and we may get out of this to a degree in the near future.

 

[SteelerInLebanon]

Yes, all of these models were based on full social distancing.

Has anyone ever modelled what would have happened if the world was allowed to stay open, with more moderate precautions like enforced handwashing, mandatory wearing of face coverings, elderly and sick staying isolated, and maintaining greater distances between people in public places?

No, people wouldn't have been perfect at it. They aren't perfect at what we're doing now. But perhaps we could have avoided the complete devastation of the economy and 6 trillion in new debt with slightly less effective results? But no, it was presented to us as a "Do this or you're all gonna die" kind of choice and it's clear that was just not accurate. To what degree we will sadly never know.

Yes at least Ohio had a four part model showing the differing degrees of distancing. We are at the 3rd most restrictive level and the number are not to far off. I thank god for that.

 

[Steeler Pride]

No I think you are wrong in that we did not overreact. I think these numbers bare a direct correlation to out actions. To many only look a the models and see the mid line and up but if you look at many of the models closely and look at the shaded area corresponding to the midline you would see many of these do have us within their margin of error. If we had not acted this would have been likey worse than the flu once again not be cause it itself is more deadly but we would have seen much higher rates of Vent use and ICU use. At least here in Ohio the models have been adjusted all along to track more closely with what is being seen as they took in to account the results of our efforts.

I look at it this way we may never be able to prove if we overreacted but thank god we didn't prove the opposite at this point and we may get out of this to a degree in the near future.

If I claim 1000 people will die, but give myself a tolerance of +/- 10,000, it's kind of hard for my model to ever be wrong.

 

[SteelerInLebanon]

I am just glad we can argue about whether we overreacted or not.