The Coronavirus thread

[Tim Steelersfan]

We will bounce back!

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Exclusive: Neiman Marcus to file for bankruptcy as soon as this week - sources

(Reuters) - Neiman Marcus Group is preparing to seek bankruptcy protection as soon as this week, becoming the first major U.S. department store operator to succumb to the economic fallout from the coronavirus outbreak, people familiar with the matter said.

The debt-laden Dallas-based company has been left with few options after the pandemic forced it to temporarily shut all 43 of its Neiman Marcus locations, roughly two dozen Last Call stores and its two Bergdorf Goodman stores in New York.

Neiman Marcus is in the final stages of negotiating a loan with its creditors totaling hundreds of millions of dollars, which would sustain some of its operations during bankruptcy proceedings, according to the sources. It has also furloughed many of its roughly 14,000 employees.

 

[Tim Steelersfan]

Well I will admit it is confusing but this is actually the percentage of deaths by age group not the mortality rate. I see what you are saying now but that isn't what this chart is. It adds up to 99% with 1% unknown.

Someone did not do a good job labeling the chart.

I stand corrected then. Given that it said Mortality Metrics at the top header above that graph, I "assumed" incorrectly they meant THE mortality rate. Yes misleading.

 

[SteelerInLebanon]

I stand corrected then. Given that it said Mortality Metrics at the top header above that graph, I "assumed" incorrectly they meant THE mortality rate. Yes misleading.

Yes by your reading of it I now understand the reaction. We all have those moments.

 

[Troglodyte]

You see nothing wrong with the mortality rate?

Age groups:
40-49 - 2% rate
50-59 - 6% rate
60-69 - 16% rate
70-79 - 26% rate
80+ - 49% rate

Those are NOT the mortality rates. Those are over-inflated, bullshit numbers missing the undetected cases, that may be as high as 10-20x each detected case.

You wanna try to convince anyone that the mortality rate is 26% for those 70-79?

It’s the rate based on the data. What are they supposed to do, guess the number of unknown cases and add them because “may be”? Should they also guess the number that died without testing?

 

[SteelerInLebanon]

It’s the rate based on the data. What are they supposed to do, guess the number of unknown cases and add them because “may be”? Should they also guess the number that died without testing?

It is the percentage of deaths by age group not a rate at all. Tim already admitted his mistake. No big deal we all read things wrong sometimes.

 

[Tim Steelersfan]

It’s the rate based on the data.

If it "were" (and it isn't) - using only those tested and those confirmed dead gives you a result that is bogus. It's not even close to being indicative. So why use it?

It's akin to saying "2 + 1 = 4 and that's just a fact based on the data we have" even though we know 1 is out there floating around somewhere and someday we will find it and get the correct number. In that case, 2+1=4 was never...ever factual.

The mortality rates, likewise, being pimped now, are not.

Especially given the antibody testing is showing that for every infected person verified there are 10 to 20x that number with the virus not tested.

It just isn't that deadly at all.

 

[tapeANaspirin2it]

ACLU silence is further proof they are not what they claim to be.

 

[Stoney]

Well I will admit it is confusing but this is actually the percentage of deaths by age group not the mortality rate. I see what you are saying now but that isn't what this chart is showing at all. It adds up to 99% with 1% unknown and shows the number of deaths by age.

Someone did not do a good job understanding the chart Tim.

So then 1% of the deaths are people under 40? And we'd have to assume that the 1% had severe comorbidities.

So tell me again why those ******* people are locked up in their houses? They should be going about their lives and spreading immunity through their age groups, while avoiding sick and elderly. Once they've had 14-21 days, release the 40-59 age group..... this process should've begun 2-3 weeks ago.

 

[madinsomniac]

It’s the rate based on the data. What are they supposed to do, guess the number of unknown cases and add them because “may be”? Should they also guess the number that died without testing?

Yes... that is how they do every single mortality rate

The calculate lethality, they calculate contagion factor they calculate transmission ratio, they estimate total infected and then total deaths

Countries that traditionally overestimate deaths for the flu have high death rates for this, countries that underestimate it have virtually none...

And for the record when the symptoms for a disease are literally everything or nothing in no particular order, the incubation time is two to 20 days and the disease is asymptomaticly infectious,
might survive on surfaces for days,
might be airborne
might be chronic
might have no immunity
Might last 60 days
Might be super deadly ...


I mean logically look at this... its being written as scary as it can be... but it makes no logical sense...
If antibodies don’t protect you from getting it again then vaccines are useless
If its super contagious and its been out this long then tens of millions have it already and the death rates are nothing
If its chronic or reoccurring how come this is only seen in just over 100 cases worldwide... there are documented tens of thousands of recoveries... why is it a handful that seem to show this ?

I think this was a serious epidemic that has rolled into the political realm now and 99 percent of what you here os bullshit spin now.. look to the experts with nothing to gain or lose from how this is handled... not all the political morons... they would sell out their kids to get their agenda pushed through... and every part of the political spectrum is gravy training this

 

[xjx]

its a virus. Likely to be around forever. Protect yourselves and get back to work. That's all there is to it. This isn't the first time a sickness of some type got passed around. It happened before. It will happen.

 

[Hypocycloids]

COVID-19 Lethality Not Much Different Than Flu, Says New Study

https://reason.com/2020/04/17/covid-19-lethality-not-much-different-than-flu-says-new-study/

Between 48,000 and 81,000 residents of Santa Clara County, California are likely to have already been infected by the coronavirus that causes COVID-19, suggests a new study by researchers associated with Stanford University Medical School. The researchers tested a sample of 3,330 residents of the county using blood tests to detect antibodies to determine whether or not they had been exposed to the coronavirus. If the researchers' calculations are correct, that's really good news. Why? Because that data will help public health officials to get a better handle on just how lethal the coronavirus is, and if researchers are right it's a lot less lethal than many have feared it to be.

Currently, the U.S. case fatality rate, that is, the percent of people with confirmed diagnoses of COVID-19 who die, is running at 5.2 percent. But epidemiologists have known that a significant proportion of people who are infected are going undetected by the medical system because either they don't feel sick enough to seek help or are asymptomatic. For example, recent research in Iceland suggests that about 50 percent of people infected with the virus have no symptoms.

 

[CharlesDavenport]

Sunlight destroys virus quickly, new govt. tests find, but experts say pandemic could last through summer

Preliminary results from government lab experiments show that the coronavirus does not survive long in high temperatures and high humidity, and is quickly destroyed by sunlight, providing evidence from controlled tests of what scientists believed — but had not yet proved — to be true.

Oh, so that's what scientists believed? Not the ones covered by the media. Another example of "scientists" confidently proclaiming something that just isn't true (below), and then getting proven wrong by more scientists (above). The state of "science" is a mess.

USA Today - Fact check: Sunlight does not kill the new coronavirus
NPR - Coronavirus FAQs: Can Sunlight Kill The Virus? How Risky Is An Elevator Ride? - Article says, yeah, not really.
BBC - There’s only one type of UV that can reliably inactivate Covid-19 – and it’s extremely dangerous. - The amount of concentrated UVC light needed would fry you.

Bolded text is hyperlinked.

 

[IndySteel]

 

[Pittsburgh Charlie]

Sunlight destroys virus quickly, new govt. tests find, but experts say pandemic could last through summer

Oh, so that's what scientists believed? Not the ones covered by the media. Another example of "scientists" confidently proclaiming something that just isn't true (below), and then getting proven wrong by more scientists (above). The state of "science" is a mess.

USA Today - Fact check: Sunlight does not kill the new coronavirus
NPR - Coronavirus FAQs: Can Sunlight Kill The Virus? How Risky Is An Elevator Ride? - Article says, yeah, not really.
BBC - There’s only one type of UV that can reliably inactivate Covid-19 – and it’s extremely dangerous. - The amount of concentrated UVC light needed would fry you.

Bolded text is hyperlinked.

Yeah not true
We’ve had record temps in the 90s in So Fla and still game numbers
It might help as the spread will only go say 3 feet instead of 6 is what I heard


Sent from my iPhone using Steeler Nation mobile app

 

[Steeler Pride]

Yeah not true
We’ve had record temps in the 90s in So Fla and still game numbers
It might help as the spread will only go say 3 feet instead of 6 is what I heard


Sent from my iPhone using Steeler Nation mobile app

Sunlight will not impact close person encounters where particulate transfer occurs. It will slow the infections from contaminate transfer on outdoor surfaces.

 

[Steeler Pride]

https://www.post-gazette.com/sports/ron-cook/2020/04/20/Ron-Cook-Can-college-athletics-survive-a-cancellation-of-football-season/stories/202004200037

I honestly wonder if anyone is really thinking about all of the reaching areas that will be impacted by this gross over reaction. When students lose their scholarships and are forced to withdraw from school...is the government (aka taxpayers) going to give them free college tuition now as well? Is the government (aka taxpayers) going to subsidize private universities for them to maintain operations after losing millions in revenue? Talk about an overreaction and over reach on the part of federal and state government.

 

[Tim Steelersfan]

Yeah not true
We’ve had record temps in the 90s in So Fla and still game numbers
It might help as the spread will only go say 3 feet instead of 6 is what I heard


Sent from my iPhone using Steeler Nation mobile app

It was a government study. Details here: https://www.yahoo.com/news/sunlight...ould-still-last-through-summer-200745675.html

"The study found that the risk of “transmission from surfaces outdoors is lower during daylight” and under higher temperature and humidity conditions. “Sunlight destroys the virus quickly,” reads the briefing."

 

[Tim Steelersfan]

https://www.post-gazette.com/sports/ron-cook/2020/04/20/Ron-Cook-Can-college-athletics-survive-a-cancellation-of-football-season/stories/202004200037

I honestly wonder if anyone is really thinking about all of the reaching areas that will be impacted by this gross over reaction. When students lose their scholarships and are forced to withdraw from school...is the government (aka taxpayers) going to give them free college tuition now as well? Is the government (aka taxpayers) going to subsidize private universities for them to maintain operations after losing millions in revenue? Talk about an overreaction and over reach on the part of federal and state government.

This is affecting me this way directly. CV19 couldn't have been worse time. My youngest son is about to be a high school senior. He plays basketball and is good enough to play in college (DIII or DII likely). Size hampers him. This year he scored over 200 points, set a school single season record for charges in one year (40) and shot over 40% from 3point range.

Basketball recruiting really isn't done in the HS gym though. It's done in the spring/summer in AAU tournaments. The reason is it's about economies of scale. College scouts can see thousands of kids over 2-3 days at a tournament v taking long trips to watch just one high school game.

Last summer we were at the Pittsburgh Jamfest at the convention center in the Burgh. 90 basketball courts were set up inside, side by side, stacked on the upper floor and lower floor. From Friday night till Sunday afternoon, games were played every hour and nearly every court was full the whole time. Thousands of players there. College scouts crawling all over the joint.

The summer and spring are full of these tournaments.

They are all gone with no timetable for them to return. No one knows how recruiting is going to happen. This may help or hurt him. Thankfully, he has an offer already and has a handful of schools interested. But...it's just very frustrating. Who knows what happens.

We have been counting on him getting scholarship money. If he doesn't, we will figure it out, but that is a costly $120,000-$160,000 because we shut down for the flu.

 

[Tim Steelersfan]

We will bounce back! ummm.....no chance.

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The next 45 days are the ‘most critical period in U.S. financial history,’ says stock-market expert who profited in 1987 and 2008 crises

After recovering a chunk of the losses racked up during the worst of the coronavirus-induced selloff last month, the stock market finds itself at a crucial inflection point, writes Alan B. Lancz.

“The next 45 days may just become the most critical period in U.S. financial history,” he wrote in a newsletter published Wednesday. “While on average we may face a bear market every 10 years, this one is like no other,” he said.

And even if the economic revival is executed flawlessly, the founder of the eponymous Toledo, Ohio-based investment advisory firm said the result will be a so-called U-shaped recovery, where a rebound in business and consumer activity from pre-crisis levels will be long and slow.

“Even if we execute properly, the recovery will take time and a best-case scenario is a ‘U’ shaped recovery,” he wrote. “The much talked about ‘V’ shaped recovery is no longer in the equation because of the unprecedented combination of negatives with this crisis,” he said, referring to hope for a recovery that is sharp and fast.

ndeed, a reading on Wednesday of business activity in the New York state area, the New York Empire State Index, dropped to a record low of negative-78.2 in April from negative-21.5 in the previous month. A report on U.S. industrial production fell 5.4% in March, the steepest decline since early 1946, and retail sales in March registered a record 8.7% slump; meanwhile, a reading of confidence among U.S. home builders in April fell to its lowest reading since 2012 and the largest monthly change in the index’s 30-year history.

 

[CharlesDavenport]

I can't imagine that most negative economic indicators/factors are/will be a surprise and not factored into the market. Not exactly a secret what is shut down. I'm actually surprised by numbers like only a 5.4% decrease in industrial production.

Not terribly frightened by this expert.

 

[oneforthebus]

Of course it's going to be long and slow. People can';t go months without income and then just go back to spending like it was nothing. Any reopening is going to be at a snail's pace and will be half the revenue if that, between social distancing and people terrified of going anywhere. Anyone who thinks we'll be back to anywhere close to where we were anytime soon is delusional.

It's only a matter of time before the fed seizes control of things like the energy industry, healthcare and banking and this grand experiment we call America is basically over. Just watch.

 

[jitter77]

With the flu do 700 New Yorkers die every day? I do not know the answer, but i doubt it. People say all this is political, but who is it benefiting? People on either side of the aisle are not in agreement as to what to do. Also this is just not a USA thing, it's basically the whole world. No one benefits from the world being shut down. You have all types of governmental systems doing the same thing. The question is why are they doing it. I think it is more the fear of the unknown than anything. You have a new extremely contagious disease that may or may not be deadlier than the flu. I don't think shutting down the world economy benefits any country or party. Governments are being extremely cautious. If we did nothing and the death toll was magnitudes higher people would be complaining that no one took this seriously. We just don't have enough info at this point to say whether the lockdowns were the right call

 

[Tim Steelersfan]

I can't imagine that most negative economic indicators/factors are/will be a surprise and not factored into the market. Not exactly a secret what is shut down. I'm actually surprised by numbers like only a 5.4% decrease in industrial production.

Not terribly frightened by this expert.

I'm more concerned about him saying the V curve is no longer possible (the quick bounce back) and we are facing the much longer U shaped recovery curve.

This is going to be a long haul.

 

[Tim Steelersfan]

With the flu do 700 New Yorkers die every day?

IMHE predicts we will lose now 60,000 people to CV19

Last year we lost 60,000 to the flu.
Two years ago we lost 80,000 to the flu.

How are you trying to justify this is worse than the flu from a deaths/danger perspective?

Simply because "we don't know?"

 

[jitter77]

I'm not trying to justify it, just saying the dangers is how hard and fast it hits compared to the flu. You have to look at more than deaths to assess the dangers. No PPE, lack of vents, possibility of hospitals running out of proper space / equipment. Sure hospitals have lots of beds, but how many negative pressure rooms and such. Also the disease may have been killing people months ago we simply do not know what the numbers are and may not ever. Early reports were it was much deadlier than the flu which is probably not the case. The main issue is how fast it spreads and the strain it places on the Healthcare system