The Electoral Map

[Steeltime]

My best guess on the electoral map.

http://www.270towin.com/maps/w1Bb4

Here is how I am seeing the race, noting that I cannot separate the Maine votes as the state allows, with 2 going to Hilldog and 1 to Trump:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/create_your_own_president_map.html

 

[Ron Burgundy]

Okay, I see that Colorado has now turned into a "toss-up" state, where the most recent poll shows Trump leading by 3 points. If Trump wins Colorado, Ohio, Florida, Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Iowa and Missouri, as well as Maine's CD2 (where he is up 10 points), and Hillary wins Virginia, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, New Hampshire, Nevada, Oregon, and New Mexico ... guess what?

The electoral count is 269-269.

In that case the vote would go to the House where the GOP has a healthy majority.
My neighbor owns an ammo store (hell, his garage is a factory) and says his sales are through the roof and advises stocking up regardless of who wins.

 

[IndySteel]

Michigan is now within the margin of error, which really means Trump is ahead. I bet he wins PA too.

 

[Ron Burgundy]

Michigan is now within the margin of error, which really means Trump is ahead. I bet he wins PA too.

I was a poll watcher back in 2008. A LOT of people, mostly black, turned out simply because they were voting for the First Black President. This is not me talking bullshit, this is what I heard from people standing in the line. I don't detect the same level of enthusiasm for the First Woman President.

 

[Steeltime]

I was a poll watcher back in 2008. A LOT of people, mostly black, turned out simply because they were voting for the First Black President. This is not me talking bullshit, this is what I heard from people standing in the line. I don't detect the same level of enthusiasm for the First Woman President.

A hearty and healthy Hillary is ready to fire up the base!!

 

[Skott]

I was a poll watcher back in 2008. A LOT of people, mostly black, turned out simply because they were voting for the First Black President. This is not me talking bullshit, this is what I heard from people standing in the line. I don't detect the same level of enthusiasm for the First Woman President.

Hillary wil not get 90% of th black vote either. I'm seeing more and more black voters supporting Trump

 

[Clete]

This is going to be a Reaganesque type landslide, the De=ms don;t like Hitlery and the independents and Reps hate the ****.

 

[Ron Burgundy]

Hillary wil not get 90% of th black vote either. I'm seeing more and more black voters supporting Trump

I dunno, remember Al Gore got 90% and you don't get any whiter than Al Gore. I hear you though, I think a lot of blacks are finally giving up on the Democrats after 50 years.

 

[Steeltime]

I dunno, remember Al Gore got 90% and you don't get any whiter than Al Gore. I hear you though, I think a lot of blacks are finally giving up on the Democrats after 50 years.

Trump seems to be reaching out to African-American voters. If he garners 12% of that vote, Hilldog is in serious trouble.

 

[Coach]

I dunno, remember Al Gore got 90% and you don't get any whiter than Al Gore. I hear you though, I think a lot of blacks are finally giving up on the Democrats after 50 years.

As trump said what do they have to lose?

 

[BLITZ]

I was a poll watcher back in 2008. A LOT of people, mostly black, turned out simply because they were voting for the First Black President. This is not me talking bullshit, this is what I heard from people standing in the line. I don't detect the same level of enthusiasm for the First Woman President.

I certainly agree with this. I cant tell you how many times in 2008 I heard somethings along the lines of We just changed history or I am a part of changing history not realizing they had changed it for the worse.
not so much this year

 

[SteelChip]

A new national NBC News-Wall Street Journal-Marist poll shows Hillary Clinton with a slight lead, 42 to 39 percent. But Donald Trump gets almost half of the white vote in that poll, suggesting that Clinton must be doing very well with nonwhite voters.

And so she is. That poll suggests that only 6 percent of black voters nationally plan to support Donald Trump

But anyway, it can get worse than that. The Wall Street Journal's Neil King reports that in the Journal-NBC-Marist poll of Ohio, Donald Trump gets a nice round 0 percent of the vote from black Ohioans.

But anyway, it can get worse than that, too. At least in Ohio, Trump is keeping Clinton under 90 percent with black voters. According to King, that's not happening in Pennsylvania.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...onald-trump-with-0-percent-of-the-black-vote/

 

[madinsomniac]

The issue with the "black" vote is that the stereotype there is they dont really vote much... Its stereotypical, since its more urban voters in general... The suburban voters tend to have higher% of actual voters... But where Hillary is getting high support, well they dont really vote. That segment came out the last two presidential elections, but there was likely a reason there that wont be in play this time.. Again the polls wont reflect reality because they are looking for the same or similar % of the last two elections, and i dont think that turnout is happening....

 

[Spike]

Dems hitting the panic button!


Chuck Todd just showed an electoral map with Trump winning New Hampshire, Nevada, Ohio, Florida, North Carolina and Iowa and Maine’s second district

Putting Trump at 270.

 

[madinsomniac]

Most states should at a minimum be divided up for national election purposes... most big cities basically dictate the entire states vote. Id rather a system that divies electorial votes by percentage in each state rather than winner take all... and if not that PA, New york, california, and maybe texas and florida should all be divided into voting blocks because of the diversity of the elctoriate in them....

Then again i also support a ranked voting system and several days of voting, not just 1... our system is so dated

 

[Max Power]

Most states should at a minimum be divided up for national election purposes... most big cities basically dictate the entire states vote. Id rather a system that divies electorial votes by percentage in each state rather than winner take all... and if not that PA, New york, california, and maybe texas and florida should all be divided into voting blocks because of the diversity of the elctoriate in them....

Then again i also support a ranked voting system and several days of voting, not just 1... our system is so dated

I'll agree 100% with this one. There is a Worlds Difference between Minneapolis/St Paul and the rest of the state. Why should what goes on there dictate how all the rest of us feel in voting for our representation in a Presidential Election? Sure it's the same in many other States but it's extreme in nature here.

 

[Steeltime]

I'll agree 100% with this one. There is a Worlds Difference between Minneapolis/St Paul and the rest of the state. Why should what goes on there dictate how all the rest of us feel in voting for our representation in a Presidential Election? Sure it's the same in many other States but it's extreme in nature here.

The simple fact of the matter is that the current system, with electoral votes rather than a popular vote, is designed to insure that areas with smaller populations - Kansas, Iowa, etc. - not simply get drowned out by large cities. Seriously, Los Angeles has more population than Kansas and Iowa combined.

If we start tinkering with the electoral system, then inevitably the smaller districts will get overwhelmed and made irrelevant. Who gives a @#$% about a county with 1,000 voters?? No candidate will care about that county since it simply has no relevance.

However, if those 1,000 votes might swing the state, then darn right the candidates will care. That is why campaigns now hit very small towns in Ohio, and Florida, and Nevada, and Oregon, and North Carolina since all those votes matter.

The proposed change would, I submit, do the opposite of what you intend.

 

[Ron Burgundy]

Most states should at a minimum be divided up for national election purposes... most big cities basically dictate the entire states vote. Id rather a system that divies electorial votes by percentage in each state rather than winner take all... and if not that PA, New york, california, and maybe texas and florida should all be divided into voting blocks because of the diversity of the elctoriate in them....

Then again i also support a ranked voting system and several days of voting, not just 1... our system is so dated

I agree with this. As one political consultant said in 2014, in a statewide election the Democrats just need a big turnout in Pittsburgh and Philadelphia and they can tell the rest of the state to go to hell.

 

[Spike]

Go FL!

Race tightens in projected U.S. Electoral College vote: Reuters/Ipsos

NEW YORK (Reuters) - An election analysis conducted in the Reuters/Ipsos States of the Nation project shows that the race has tightened considerably over the past few weeks, with Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump projected to win Florida, an essential battleground state, if the election were held today.

The project, which is based on a weekly tracking poll of more than 15,000 Americans, shows that the 2016 presidential race could end in a photo finish on Nov. 8, with the major-party candidates running nearly even in the Electoral College, the body that ultimately selects the president.

The race has tightened in several traditional battlegrounds.

Pennsylvania has been moved from a likely win for Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton to a tossup and Florida is now considered a likely win for the Republican nominee, with 50 percent support for Trump to 46 percent support for Clinton.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/race-tightens-projected-u-electoral-college-vote-reuters-114535676.html

 

[Spike]

ITS HAPPENING: Trump is one state away from winning RCP's no-toss up electoral college map!

 

[madinsomniac]

ITS HAPPENING: Trump is one state away from winning RCP's no-toss up electoral college map!

If new mexico goes for hometown boy gary johnson, neither will have 270 under that scenerio

 

[Spike]

If new mexico goes for hometown boy gary johnson, neither will have 270 under that scenerio

He's not going to win any state with 15% of the vote

 

[Steeltime]

ITS HAPPENING: Trump is one state away from winning RCP's no-toss up electoral college map!

Yeah, I had serious doubts that Trump had a chance unless he won Ohio, Florida, AND either Virginia or Pennsylvania.

Now, the better route seems to be Colorado, which is a tighter race and winnable, or New Hampshire. Both states can be won by switching 10,000 voters. Pennsylvania or Virginia would mean switching tens of thousands of voters.