Nobody will likely argue that the NFL has reached a point it’s product is utterly mediocre… there are no great teams in the league… anyone can win any week now moreso than any other time in the leagues history. Virtually everyone hovers around 500 now, and with a seventh playoff spot that means most teams are in the race until the end of the season.
Lets look at some reasons the league has gotten to this pathetic point:
10. Analytics. Fancy stats, data breakdowns and computer data basing has made scouting a team and determining tendencies easier than ever. This severely depresses any advantage a team may have had in scouting. This is also true in drafting… a glut of data available at the draft has led to teams with subpar scouting staffs to do much better drafting
9. CTE backlash. Yeah the brain injury issue has been engrained into the public mind, that has led to more and more talented kids not playing football and even worse for the game, more early retirements from players. fewer talent coming in plus talent quitting early is not great
8. Terrible Officiating. Yeah this plays against both teams in a game, but its completely erratic and often it only takes one or two real fuckups can kneecap a better team causing it to lose. It makes some games unwatchable, and absolutely affects the outcomes of games... often against the better team
7. How teams deal with injuries. Gone are the days guys often played through minor injuries, most simply take a few games off… the NFL got busted overusing pain meds back in the day, so that leads to more injuries… it probably doesn’t help that teams stress speed so much now that groin pulls seem exponentially higher than ever too… its also important that now the IR isn’t permanent… a concept other leagues have used for decades… so more guys go on it
6. COVID. Yeah its temporary, but the past two years Covid has devastated rosters and schedules and practices. Its disruptive influence has absolutely affected wins and losses…
5. Free agency. This coupled with the #3 reason on this list has become a bigger issue than it was for most of its 3-decade history. Teams and players have learned to game the system and the RFA and Tag system is basically broken… players get overpaid then cut after a year or two creating more instability than there should be.
4. Practice restrictions. The CBA has limited frequency, length and just about everything about practices, including how many padded practices can be held a year… this massively restricts coaches ability to judge a guys physicality and how they are going to perform under game situations… basically it’s the second biggest contributor to softening up the league…
3. Preset Drafted rookie contracts. This devastated teams like the steelers that tended to give out a lot of 3 year contracts and use the RFA status of expiring contracts to re-sign players with high upside to reasonable second contracts before they peak. This minimized the cost of a young player regressing after showing promise. The four year mandatory contract for non first rounders basically means the second contract is when they hit UFA and for many players who don’t really show improvement till their third or even fourth year, you get slammed with the choice to give them an expensive fair market contract with very limited time for them to prove they wont regress…
2. The Goodell Rule changes. Besides turning any potentially great defensive play into a 15 yard penalty, the overall effect has been to make throwing into contested coverage more likely to end with a good play than a bad one now, so 4th quarter comebacks are way more prevalent now than ever before… teams just are rarely ever out of a game…
1. No Developmental system… for decades the NFL relied on college to get guys ready for the NFL, as more and more teams moved away from traditional Pro style systems, and leaving early for the nfl became more common, true NFL ready players get rarer and rarer, especially at positions like Fullback or Blocking TE. Expanding the practice squads was a halfhearted attempt to address this, as was the multiple attempts at things like the world league through the years… but there isn’t a solid answer yet.
What this leads to is a lot of late bloomers or guys that are one dimensional especially since modern nfl coaches rarely want to develop guys themselves
Lets look at some reasons the league has gotten to this pathetic point:
10. Analytics. Fancy stats, data breakdowns and computer data basing has made scouting a team and determining tendencies easier than ever. This severely depresses any advantage a team may have had in scouting. This is also true in drafting… a glut of data available at the draft has led to teams with subpar scouting staffs to do much better drafting
9. CTE backlash. Yeah the brain injury issue has been engrained into the public mind, that has led to more and more talented kids not playing football and even worse for the game, more early retirements from players. fewer talent coming in plus talent quitting early is not great
8. Terrible Officiating. Yeah this plays against both teams in a game, but its completely erratic and often it only takes one or two real fuckups can kneecap a better team causing it to lose. It makes some games unwatchable, and absolutely affects the outcomes of games... often against the better team
7. How teams deal with injuries. Gone are the days guys often played through minor injuries, most simply take a few games off… the NFL got busted overusing pain meds back in the day, so that leads to more injuries… it probably doesn’t help that teams stress speed so much now that groin pulls seem exponentially higher than ever too… its also important that now the IR isn’t permanent… a concept other leagues have used for decades… so more guys go on it
6. COVID. Yeah its temporary, but the past two years Covid has devastated rosters and schedules and practices. Its disruptive influence has absolutely affected wins and losses…
5. Free agency. This coupled with the #3 reason on this list has become a bigger issue than it was for most of its 3-decade history. Teams and players have learned to game the system and the RFA and Tag system is basically broken… players get overpaid then cut after a year or two creating more instability than there should be.
4. Practice restrictions. The CBA has limited frequency, length and just about everything about practices, including how many padded practices can be held a year… this massively restricts coaches ability to judge a guys physicality and how they are going to perform under game situations… basically it’s the second biggest contributor to softening up the league…
3. Preset Drafted rookie contracts. This devastated teams like the steelers that tended to give out a lot of 3 year contracts and use the RFA status of expiring contracts to re-sign players with high upside to reasonable second contracts before they peak. This minimized the cost of a young player regressing after showing promise. The four year mandatory contract for non first rounders basically means the second contract is when they hit UFA and for many players who don’t really show improvement till their third or even fourth year, you get slammed with the choice to give them an expensive fair market contract with very limited time for them to prove they wont regress…
2. The Goodell Rule changes. Besides turning any potentially great defensive play into a 15 yard penalty, the overall effect has been to make throwing into contested coverage more likely to end with a good play than a bad one now, so 4th quarter comebacks are way more prevalent now than ever before… teams just are rarely ever out of a game…
1. No Developmental system… for decades the NFL relied on college to get guys ready for the NFL, as more and more teams moved away from traditional Pro style systems, and leaving early for the nfl became more common, true NFL ready players get rarer and rarer, especially at positions like Fullback or Blocking TE. Expanding the practice squads was a halfhearted attempt to address this, as was the multiple attempts at things like the world league through the years… but there isn’t a solid answer yet.
What this leads to is a lot of late bloomers or guys that are one dimensional especially since modern nfl coaches rarely want to develop guys themselves
