United States Economic News

[Steeltime]

Since the mainstream media seem to have enacted a blackout of any news regarding the United States' economic growth and improvement over the past 12 months, I figured I would endeavor to provide a convenient source for such information. I will say this - news about economic activity and economic growth was incredibly easy to find during the Obama administration, but the fact is that finding such news for 2017 is much more difficult. Google typically tosses up articles and information for the US economy ending in 2016 when I inquire about "US economic growth 2017." Be that as it may, here is what I found after spending some extra time tracking down the data:

GDP Growth

Current Numbers
3rd quarter 2017: 3.2 percent
2nd quarter 2017: 3.1 percent
Next release: January 26, 2018
Quarterly data: Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 3.2 percent in the third quarter of 2017, according to the "third" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP increased 3.1 percent.

These figures will provide GDP growth for the 4th quarter, 2017 next Friday. Those figures will also provide the yearly growth for 2017. Projections are that the 4th quarter growth will exceed 3% once again, and raise the yearly GDP growth to approximately 2.7%, the highest figure since 2006. That compares to the very sluggish 1.6% growth in 2016, Bammy's last year.

Further, that figure takes into account the sluggish growth during the first quarter of 2017 of just 1.2%, based upon a slowdown beginning from 2016. The last 3 quarters of 2017 will show a GDP growth of more than 3.2%, which would be the highest annual figure since 2005. Obama's economy never saw annual GDP growth greater than 2.6%.

Further, the GDP growth is taking place in 48 of the 50 states and encompasses a broad improvement that is much more likely to continue than regional upticks for things like energy or crops:

https://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/glance.htm

Real Disposable Income

Current Numbers
November 2017: 0.3 percent (personal income)
October 2017: 0.4 percent (personal income)
Next release: January 29, 2018
Monthly data: In November 2017, real disposable personal income increased 0.3 percent.

Once again, the income growth is spread broadly across the United States, with every single state seeing in increase in real personal income during the 3rd quarter of 2017:

https://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/regional/spi/sqpi_glance.htm

Disposable personal income has increased for three consecutive months (September-November). The December figures come out next Friday as well.

The Source for the GDP Growth

One factor that mainstream news is too lazy and stupid to analyze is the underlying source for GDP growth. Specifically, is the growth triggered by private industry - manufacturing, commerce - or by increased government spending? A GDP growth spurred by increased government spending is not sustainable. Eventually, the government runs out of other people's money. The data for the GDP growth in 2017, as compared to 2016 for example, shows that the growth is fueled by private industry, particularly manufacturing:

Quarterly Data: Finance and insurance; durable goods manufacturing; and information services were the leading contributors to the increase in U.S. economic growth in the third quarter of 2017. According to gross domestic product (GDP) by industry statistics released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, 18 of 22 industry groups contributed to the overall 3.2 percent increase in real GDP in the third quarter.

This graph does a pretty good job at showing the preferred GDP growth in 2017 (based on private industry, manufacturing, which costs the taxpayer nothing and actually GENERATES taxes) compared to the 3rd quarter, 2016:

Unemployment Rate

The unemployment rate has fallen to 4.1%, the lowest figure since ... well, a long ******* time. Further, the annual rate is 4.4%, the lowest since 2000.

https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNU...ption=specific_periods&years_option=all_years

Also, "The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons (sometimes referred to as involuntary part-time workers) was essentially unchanged at 4.9 million in December but was down by 639,000 over the year. These individuals, who would have preferred full-time employment, were working part time because their hours had been cut back or because they were unable to find a full-time job."

Finally, the unemployment rate that includes workers who have simply given up looking for work - and are thereby not tabulated as part of the official unemployment rate - has fallen to 4.4% as of December, 2017. That is a decline from 5.5% in December, 2016, just one year earlier.

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t15.htm

Also, the unemployment rates have fallen for every part of the population. "In December, 2017, the unemployment rates for adult men (3.8 percent), adult women (3.7 percent), Whites (3.7 percent), Blacks (6.8 percent), Asians (2.5 percent), and Hispanics (4.9 percent) showed little or no change."

Compare those unemployment rates with December, 2016: "Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rates for adult men (4.4 percent), adult women (4.3 percent), teenagers (14.7 percent), Whites (4.3 percent), Blacks (7.8 percent), Asians (2.6 percent), and Hispanics (5.9 percent) showed little change in December, 2016."

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/empsit_01062017.pdf

Labor Force Participation Rates

The labor force participation rate for 2017 ranged between 62.7% and 63.1%, and averaged 62.9% for the year:

That participation rate compares very favorably to the figures for 2008-2016, where the labor force participation rate ranged from 66% in 2009 and dropped to 62.8% in 2015.

In other words, the unemployment rate is down for every working group (men, women, African-Americans, Hispanics, Asians), the level of workers who have given up looking for work is way down, where the number of people working is up.

Home Ownership

Home ownership rates in the United States has rebounded from a low of 62.9% in July, 2016 to 63.9% in July, 2017.

That figure is expected to reach 64.2% by the end of 2017, even where home prices are flourishing. Housing prices are one of the best indicators of the economic health of Americans, since we have more value in our homes than basically anything else. When home ownership increases, and housing prices go up, all Americans benefit.

The data are irrefutable. The economy is booming, GDP is set to increase more than 3% for the next year, income is up, housing ownership is up, labor participation is up, and unemployment is down.

Funny how this news fails to make the NYT, WaPo, LA Times, Chicago Tribune, ehh? Wonder why ...

 

[hamster]

Since the mainstream media seem to have enacted a blackout of any news regarding the United States' economic growth and improvement over the past 12 months, I figured I would endeavor to provide a convenient source for such information. I will say this - news about economic activity and economic growth was incredibly easy to find during the Obama administration, but the fact is that finding such news for 2017 is much more difficult. Google typically tosses up articles and information for the US economy ending in 2016 when I inquire about "US economic growth 2017." Be that as it may, here is what I found after spending some extra time tracking down the data:

...

Google, Facebook and Twitter testified before Congress this past week, and you can find little coverage content anywhere. Almost like there is a blackout. These social media sites are becoming more and more facist in their information control. It is obvious. It is also becoming widely known that conservatives in Silicon Valley are on the endangered list. I

 

[Steeltime]

Google, Facebook and Twitter testified before Congress this past week, and you can find little coverage content anywhere. Almost like there is a blackout. These social media sites are becoming more and more facist in their information control. It is obvious. It is also becoming widely known that conservatives in Silicon Valley are on the endangered list. I

I can certainly provide anecdotal information in support of that fact, hamster. I had to dig and dig to find the economic data I posted. Most of it comes from government agencies, but the initial link is for 2014 or 2015. I had to open that link, find the home page, then input the dates I wanted to locate the information.

**** should pop up as soon as I inquire, "2017 US GDP growth" but doesn't.

 

[Steelin]

**** should pop up as soon as I inquire, "2017 US GDP growth" but doesn't.

So is this what the commies call "fake news"?????? It is treasonous how the lying, thieving media respect their usage of the public airways in my opinion. We need some serious winning in this regard.

 

[Djfan]

I have said for years that the media is the one thing needing change. Conservative investors should really start buying up control in the media.

 

[steel dino]

Gotta love those results..

Data dont lie..\

Hope it continues...especial;y being 5-7 years from retirement..

 

[Djfan]

Link for this article?

 

[Steeltime]

Link for this article?

Not an article. I wrote it. My references are, however, linked.

 

[Djfan]

Not an article. I wrote it. My references are, however, linked.

Gotcha. Thanks for this.

 

[Steeltime]

Gotcha. Thanks for this.

No problem.

I would publish it on the Huffington Compost, but my data are real. This shithole rag accepts only crazed anti-Trump tirades.

 

[Djfan]

No problem.

I would publish it on the Huffington Compost, but my data are real. This shithole rag accepts only crazed anti-Trump tirades.

Put it out on social media? I think it needs to be in the conversation.

 

[Troglodyte]

So the economy is doing great, now the question is “Is it real?” Can you show that interest rates aren’t artificially low? What’s the fed rate, vs the inflation rate? Can you show that personal debt is decreasing? Can you show that the people buying homes can actually afford them? Despite the recent housing crisis, 1/3rd of them cannot!

The economy was “good” under Obama and “great” under Trump, and fake under both.

 

[Steelin]

When was the last time the fed released QE monies? It seems like under Obummer It was non-stop.

 

[IndySteel]

The policy of the MSM Fake News during the Trump presidency is to suppress, ignore and deny any positive fact and also to lie and make up negative stories. They have zero credibility.

 

[ark steel]

So the economy is doing great, now the question is “Is it real?” Can you show that interest rates aren’t artificially low? What’s the fed rate, vs the inflation rate? Can you show that personal debt is decreasing? Can you show that the people buying homes can actually afford them? Despite the recent housing crisis, 1/3rd of them cannot!

The economy was “good” under Obama and “great” under Trump, and fake under both.

Interest rates have been kept artificially low for many, many years.

 

[SteelerInLebanon]

The policy of the MSM Fake News during the Trump presidency is to suppress, ignore and deny any positive fact and also to lie and make up negative stories. They have zero credibility.

It was the same under Obama just in reverse.

 

[Steeltime]

So the economy is doing great, now the question is “Is it real?” Can you show that interest rates aren’t artificially low?

The prime rate has increased 3 times the past year, up to 3.75%. In comparison, the Obama economy saw NO prime rate increases from the 3rd quarter of 2010 until January, 2017, when Bammy left office, and instead saw 2 declines, to 2.75%.

What’s the fed rate, vs the inflation rate?

Inflation was 2.65% in 2017, and is projected to be just 2.38% in 2018.

In other words, the Fed's current prime rate makes sense in light of that inflation rate.

Can you show that personal debt is decreasing?

Real household debt, adjusted for inflation, is declining significantly since the housing bubble burst in 2008:

This chart unfortunately goes only to 2016, but the data noted above shows that the household debt as percentage of GDP is declining and far below the 2008 levels:

Can you show that the people buying homes can actually afford them? Despite the recent housing crisis, 1/3rd of them cannot!

The United States ratio of housing cost to income ratio shows that from 2008 to present, American homeowners have reduced that ratio significantly, particularly compared to other nations. Further, housing prices in the United States are vastly more reasonable than prices in other industrialized nations. The data show the following:

So as is true with all substantial run-up involving housing prices and the stock market, the market will correct and drive down housing prices and stock prices. However, Trog, this economic boom - and make no ******* mistake, this is a genuine economic BOOM - is undergirded by increased manufacturing, increased employment, rising median income levels, rising home ownership, lower private debt (even with very high housing prices, which is quite unique - the vast, vast majority of private debt is the cost of home ownership), and increasing GDP fueled by private industry.

And you will hear not one word - NOT ONE ******* WORD - of this genuine, provable economic news on any mainstream media site. Oh, you will find it in the Wall St. Journal and The Economist, but where is this news - real news - in the WaPo, NYT, LAT, Chicago Tribune, NBC, ABC, CBS, CNN, MSNBCDOUCHE, and on and on?

WHERE????

 

[ZonaBurgh]

Trog, have you looked at your retirement accounts lately? That's about as real as it gets for the average American.
And sure the market can go in the other direction at any time, but it's up to the individual to manage their account to keep what they have earned.

I understand you lean left and may not want to admit most of us are doing better economically this last year. Take the blinders off and look for yourself.

 

[ark steel]

all lies by the vast Reich Wing CONspiracy

 

[Coach]

Minority unemployment is down among African Americans and Hispanic since Trump was elected. This is something Obama could not do! I hope this group takes note and votes accordingly.

Give an able-bodied person a job and chance, not a boogeyman story full of lies and a welfare check.

 

[ark steel]

21 will be by to tell you that the 2017 economy was residual left over from The Big O administration. When the stock market collapses, THAT will be all trump.

 

[deljzc]

There will be no collapse. What could happen is inflation (because we might be growing TOO FAST, if that's possible) and then some pretty big rate hikes to try and counter that by the fed, then that opens up a can of worms with the government's ability to borrow money to pay (at least early on) for Trump's tax cut (although inflation leads to more tax revenue).

On a macro economic scale though, this is a very solid market right now to be in. I think America will single handedly raise up Europe and Asia next to high growth rates and that could cause some investors to transition out of America and into those markets for a while but overall, it's a strong place to be right no.

Glad I had some decent 401k money in the market at the start of all this.