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WAY Too Early Roster Prediction...

Badcat

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Sorry, but this fresh breeze of optimism and hope has me wondering roster position numbers and favorability from our new Head Football Coach. So, I had AI crunch some numbers based on Big Mike's stints with the Packers and Cowboys and here is what it come up with. I disagree on the Johnson over Homer at RB, Homer has more ST upside. Otherwise, It's pretty spot on. I believe Mike put Mason at 2 is to get him some looks for a possible trade, at least that is my wish.

McCarthy’s historical 53-man tendencies (2015–2024)



Position groupTypical 53-man countNotes
Quarterbacks3Almost always 3; never more than 3 in Week 1.
Running backs4Usually 4; 5 only if a clear FB/ST specialist.
Fullbacks1 (often counted with TE or RB)McCarthy loves a FB; Nowakowski fits.
Wide receivers5–6McCarthy has varied between 5 and 6; 6 if one WR is a clear ST ace.
Tight ends3Often 2 pure TEs + 1 FB/TE hybrid.
Offensive linemen9Usually 9 OL total (5 starters + 4 backups).
Defensive linemen (interior + EDGE)8–9Often 4 EDGE + 4–5 interior DL.
Linebackers (ILB/OLB)7–8In 3–4, includes OLBs as “edge”; in 4–3, more ILBs.
Cornerbacks5–6Usually 6 if young depth; 5 if veterans dominate.
Safeties4–5Typically 4, sometimes 5 with a hybrid LB/S.
Special teams (K, P, LS)3Always 3.
Corrected 2026 Steelers 53-man roster (McCarthy-influenced)

Offense (26)

  • Quarterbacks (3): Aaron Rodgers, Will Howard, Drew Allar
    Cuts (1): Mason Rudolph
    McCarthy almost always keeps 3 QBs; Howard’s upside and Allar’s draft pedigree edge out Rudolph.
  • Running backs (4): Jaylen Warren, Rico Dowdle, Kaleb Johnson, Eli Heidenreich
    Cuts (2): Travis Homer, Lew Nichols
    McCarthy’s norm is 4 RBs; Heidenreich’s versatility and Johnson’s draft status save them.
  • Fullback (1): Riley Nowakowski
    Cuts (0): None
    McCarthy loves a FB; Nowakowski is the clear FB/TE hybrid.
  • Wide receivers (6): DK Metcalf, Michael Pittman Jr., Germie Bernard, Roman Wilson, Ben Skowronek, Kaden Wetjen
    Cuts (6): AT Perry, Levi Wentz, Max Hurleman, Cole Burgess, Brandon Smith, Joaquin Davis
    McCarthy has kept 5–6 WRs; Wetjen/Skowronek as ST contributors, the rest are camp bodies/futures.
  • Tight ends (3): Pat Freiermuth, Darnell Washington, Robert Tonyan
    Cuts (3): J.J. Galbreath, Lake McRee, Jaheim Bell
    Nowakowski counts as FB; Tonyan’s Rodgers connection and veteran status save him.
  • Offensive line (9): Troy Fautanu, Mason McCormick, Zach Frazier, Spencer Anderson, Max Iheanachor, Dylan Cook, Gennings Dunker, Brock Hoffman, Ryan McCollum
    Cuts (6): Gregory Crippen, Jack Driscoll, Lorenzo Thompson, Doug Nester, Broderick Jones (PUP), Steven Jones
    McCarthy typically keeps 9 OL for depth; Jones likely starts season on PUP.

Defense (24)

  • Defensive line (7): Cam Heyward, Keeanu Benton, Derrick Harmon, Sebastian Joseph-Day, Yahya Black, Esezi Otomewo, Gabriel Rubio
    Cuts (4): Kyler Baugh, Anthony Goodlow, Logan Lee, Dean Lowry
    McCarthy usually keeps 4–5 interior DL; Lowry’s injury and Rubio’s draft status tip the scales.
  • Outside linebackers (4): T.J. Watt, Alex Highsmith, Nick Herbig, Jack Sawyer
    Cuts (2): Jamin Davis, Julius Welschof
    Locked-in group; McCarthy values high-end edge talent.
  • Inside linebackers (4): Patrick Queen, Payton Wilson, Cole Holcomb, Carson Bruener
    Cuts (2): Malik Harrison, Jacoby Windmon
    McCarthy typically keeps 4 ILBs in a 3–4/4–3 hybrid; Harrison’s cap savings make him expendable.
  • Cornerbacks (6): Joey Porter Jr., Jamel Dean, Jalen Ramsey, Asante Samuel Jr., Brandin Echols, Daylen Everette
    Cuts (6): Doneiko Slaughter, Daryl Porter Jr., Ahmari Harvey, Donte Kent, Devan Boykin, (1 more TBD)
    McCarthy has kept 6 CBs when young depth exists; Everette fits, the rest are camp bodies.
  • Safeties (4): Jaquan Brisker, DeShon Elliott, Darnell Savage, Robert Spears-Jennings
    Cuts (2): Sebastian Castro, Jack Henderson
    McCarthy’s norm is 4 safeties; Spears-Jennings’ speed and draft status edge out Castro/Henderson.

Special teams (3)

  • Kicker: Chris Boswell
  • Punter: Cameron Johnston
  • Long snapper: Christian Kuntz
    Cuts (1): Laith Marjan
Total: 53
 
Early on, I wouldn't make too many changes. Looking at this, here's my roster battles/bubble players.

QB - Rudolph/Howard - Early on, I lean Rudoph because I think they'll go with the veteran experience.
RB - Heidenreich - A pure numbers game. If his skills translate to the NFL, I like his RB/WR versatility.
WR - Wilson/Wetjen - Bubble players. Wilson has been in the doghouse and Wetjen is potentially limited as a returner. I think he's a near lock because of his draft status, but if he stinks I could see the Steelers cutting him.
OL - McCollum is a bubble player if Jones is on the active roster. I think Hoffman is G/C capable.

DL - The top 5 are locks, IMO. Will they keep 6 or 7? Otomewo, Lee, Lowry, and Rubio will battle for a couple of spots.
LB - Harrison is limited and ideally, we don't want to see Queen or Wilson come off the field much. Also, a healthy Holcomb is pretty good. I have a feeling Herbig may get some looks inside when the Steelers want all three pass rushers on the field at once.



 
Sorry, but this fresh breeze of optimism and hope has me wondering roster position numbers and favorability from our new Head Football Coach. So, I had AI crunch some numbers based on Big Mike's stints with the Packers and Cowboys and here is what it come up with. I disagree on the Johnson over Homer at RB, Homer has more ST upside. Otherwise, It's pretty spot on. I believe Mike put Mason at 2 is to get him some looks for a possible trade, at least that is my wish.

McCarthy’s historical 53-man tendencies (2015–2024)




Position groupTypical 53-man countNotes
Quarterbacks3Almost always 3; never more than 3 in Week 1.
Running backs4Usually 4; 5 only if a clear FB/ST specialist.
Fullbacks1 (often counted with TE or RB)McCarthy loves a FB; Nowakowski fits.
Wide receivers5–6McCarthy has varied between 5 and 6; 6 if one WR is a clear ST ace.
Tight ends3Often 2 pure TEs + 1 FB/TE hybrid.
Offensive linemen9Usually 9 OL total (5 starters + 4 backups).
Defensive linemen (interior + EDGE)8–9Often 4 EDGE + 4–5 interior DL.
Linebackers (ILB/OLB)7–8In 3–4, includes OLBs as “edge”; in 4–3, more ILBs.
Cornerbacks5–6Usually 6 if young depth; 5 if veterans dominate.
Safeties4–5Typically 4, sometimes 5 with a hybrid LB/S.
Special teams (K, P, LS)3Always 3.
Corrected 2026 Steelers 53-man roster (McCarthy-influenced)

Offense (26)

  • Quarterbacks (3): Aaron Rodgers, Will Howard, Drew Allar
    Cuts (1): Mason Rudolph
    McCarthy almost always keeps 3 QBs; Howard’s upside and Allar’s draft pedigree edge out Rudolph.
  • Running backs (4): Jaylen Warren, Rico Dowdle, Kaleb Johnson, Eli Heidenreich
    Cuts (2): Travis Homer, Lew Nichols
    McCarthy’s norm is 4 RBs; Heidenreich’s versatility and Johnson’s draft status save them.
  • Fullback (1): Riley Nowakowski
    Cuts (0): None
    McCarthy loves a FB; Nowakowski is the clear FB/TE hybrid.
  • Wide receivers (6): DK Metcalf, Michael Pittman Jr., Germie Bernard, Roman Wilson, Ben Skowronek, Kaden Wetjen
    Cuts (6): AT Perry, Levi Wentz, Max Hurleman, Cole Burgess, Brandon Smith, Joaquin Davis
    McCarthy has kept 5–6 WRs; Wetjen/Skowronek as ST contributors, the rest are camp bodies/futures.
  • Tight ends (3): Pat Freiermuth, Darnell Washington, Robert Tonyan
    Cuts (3): J.J. Galbreath, Lake McRee, Jaheim Bell
    Nowakowski counts as FB; Tonyan’s Rodgers connection and veteran status save him.
  • Offensive line (9): Troy Fautanu, Mason McCormick, Zach Frazier, Spencer Anderson, Max Iheanachor, Dylan Cook, Gennings Dunker, Brock Hoffman, Ryan McCollum
    Cuts (6): Gregory Crippen, Jack Driscoll, Lorenzo Thompson, Doug Nester, Broderick Jones (PUP), Steven Jones
    McCarthy typically keeps 9 OL for depth; Jones likely starts season on PUP.

Defense (24)

  • Defensive line (7): Cam Heyward, Keeanu Benton, Derrick Harmon, Sebastian Joseph-Day, Yahya Black, Esezi Otomewo, Gabriel Rubio
    Cuts (4): Kyler Baugh, Anthony Goodlow, Logan Lee, Dean Lowry
    McCarthy usually keeps 4–5 interior DL; Lowry’s injury and Rubio’s draft status tip the scales.
  • Outside linebackers (4): T.J. Watt, Alex Highsmith, Nick Herbig, Jack Sawyer
    Cuts (2): Jamin Davis, Julius Welschof
    Locked-in group; McCarthy values high-end edge talent.
  • Inside linebackers (4): Patrick Queen, Payton Wilson, Cole Holcomb, Carson Bruener
    Cuts (2): Malik Harrison, Jacoby Windmon
    McCarthy typically keeps 4 ILBs in a 3–4/4–3 hybrid; Harrison’s cap savings make him expendable.
  • Cornerbacks (6): Joey Porter Jr., Jamel Dean, Jalen Ramsey, Asante Samuel Jr., Brandin Echols, Daylen Everette
    Cuts (6): Doneiko Slaughter, Daryl Porter Jr., Ahmari Harvey, Donte Kent, Devan Boykin, (1 more TBD)
    McCarthy has kept 6 CBs when young depth exists; Everette fits, the rest are camp bodies.
  • Safeties (4): Jaquan Brisker, DeShon Elliott, Darnell Savage, Robert Spears-Jennings
    Cuts (2): Sebastian Castro, Jack Henderson
    McCarthy’s norm is 4 safeties; Spears-Jennings’ speed and draft status edge out Castro/Henderson.

Special teams (3)


  • Kicker: Chris Boswell
  • Punter: Cameron Johnston
  • Long snapper: Christian Kuntz
    Cuts (1): Laith Marjan
Total: 53


Thanks for the work you put into this, appreciate yaz.!!!

I see your point on Johnson RB, but here again it is still early.

I also seem to think this is a pretty good and formable roster,

I don’t see the STEELERS being the slouch than many talking heads seem to think.




Salute the nation
 
What I see early is:

* They like Homer’s blocking and ST capability

* Eli is awful quiet out of the gates

* Already at 300 Broderick has 10 to 15 pounds to regain form- sounds obtainable by the 53 cutdown

*Lowry seems to get significant looks and Lee was a try hard last season- I imagine that is a hard decide.

*I think the S room will have another body -addition competing soon.

* Also zooming in on the Rudolph VS Howard competition I am starting to see some similarities between the two. One isn’t good at fitting the football into tight windows and the other doesn’t seemingly trust himself to fit the football into tight windows. What might give Howard an edge is he can scramble. Plus if things are fairly equal which there is a fairly decent chance it will be… you go with the unknown ceiling.
 
Way too early is right. Some of this will look different when they wear pads. Let's not get too excited about anyone yet.
 
The QB thing is about as interesting as we've seen in a while. Obviously, Howard has to perform. But is this staff going to be safe for this year with most experienced backup or play for the future too.
 
Way too early is right. Some of this will look different when they wear pads. Let's not get too excited about anyone yet.
There is no hitting in camp this year, we'll see if that sticks. I was just curious how Big Mike's roster number usually look.
 
What I see early is:

* They like Homer’s blocking and ST capability

* Eli is awful quiet out of the gates

* Already at 300 Broderick has 10 to 15 pounds to regain form- sounds obtainable by the 53 cutdown

*Lowry seems to get significant looks and Lee was a try hard last season- I imagine that is a hard decide.

*I think the S room will have another body -addition competing soon.

* Also zooming in on the Rudolph VS Howard competition I am starting to see some similarities between the two. One isn’t good at fitting the football into tight windows and the other doesn’t seemingly trust himself to fit the football into tight windows. What might give Howard an edge is he can scramble. Plus if things are fairly equal which there is a fairly decent chance it will be… you go with the unknown ceiling.
thumbs down...
 
What I see early is:

* They like Homer’s blocking and ST capability

* Eli is awful quiet out of the gates

* Already at 300 Broderick has 10 to 15 pounds to regain form- sounds obtainable by the 53 cutdown

*Lowry seems to get significant looks and Lee was a try hard last season- I imagine that is a hard decide.

*I think the S room will have another body -addition competing soon.

* Also zooming in on the Rudolph VS Howard competition I am starting to see some similarities between the two. One isn’t good at fitting the football into tight windows and the other doesn’t seemingly trust himself to fit the football into tight windows. What might give Howard an edge is he can scramble. Plus if things are fairly equal which there is a fairly decent chance it will be… you go with the unknown ceiling.



I can see that about the two QBs, but when the owner says "vet" player, something might lean towards Mason's continuance here.

I truly hope MM keeps who he thinks can help this team currently and in the long run, even if just for one season.



Salute the nation
 
Way too early is right. Some of this will look different when they wear pads. Let's not get too excited about anyone yet.



What about the Sydne Sweeney girl, can we get excited about her ?



Salute the nation
 
Yes, there are a few articles out there, but I can't link them here.
Interesting. Team was always known for being physical but was that even really true. As a JV coach we only have a few full contact scrimmages before we play. And sone of those guys have never played. However, we do spend significant amount of time drilling and rehersing tackling and blocking. We are never out physicaled.
 
Sydney doesn't need no pads.
 
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