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I predict a trade war with China immediately - how do you think it will turn out?

CharlesDavenport

CharlesDavenport

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By all indications, Trump is coming out of the gate with China in his sights. I predict a major reset of trade rules, and no trade war at all. I think there was so much given away that just taking up the slack will not trigger any adverse reaction from the Chinese at all. I see this happening all over the place.

What say you?
 
China will be afraid to manipulate thier currency now. Yes. I think the two countries will agree on some new trade regime.
 
I predict Trump will not go on a tour, apologizing for how successful we have been.
 
192969_image.jpg
 
It's already helping the steel mills. One thing for sure is that the quality of everything made here instead of China will be improved tenfold. **** China.
 
CharlesDavenport said:
By all indications, Trump is coming out of the gate with China in his sights. I predict a major reset of trade rules, and no trade war at all. I think there was so much given away that just taking up the slack will not trigger any adverse reaction from the Chinese at all. I see this happening all over the place.

What say you?
Click to expand...



I do not see a trade war, and if there is one, the USA has a much stronger and diversified hand to play.

The one thing China has that is really valued is an abundance or rare earth metals.

What are rare earth metals?

Rare earth metals and alloys that contain them are used in many devices that people use every day such as computer memory, DVDs, rechargeable batteries, cell phones, catalytic converters, magnets, fluorescent lighting and much more.
 
As a footnote, my brother in law is back from a business trip in Asia. We caught up on Thanksgiving.

China is hated by Vietnam, the Phillpenes, and Japan. The fear level is greatest among joe average citizen. The average man on the street will say don't eat or buy this, its from China a poison or defective. That's what they believe.

They also fear a China like block similar to what the Soviet Union used to be.
 
If there was a trade war, China would sell the US Treasuries they have and shoot up our interest rates.
They have the much stronger hand to play.

A lot of the China trade is US companies going to China with their brand and contracting out their manufacturing so they can make
more profit. There are not a lot of Chinese brand consumer products selling in the US. If these US companies don't contract out
to a Chinese company they go to another low cost country. A lot of this work has been leaving China anyway and going
to places like Indonesia, Vietnam, etc... These jobs aren't coming to the United States.
 
21STEELERS21 said:
If there was a trade war, China would sell the US Treasuries they have and shoot up our interest rates.
They have the much stronger hand to play.

A lot of the China trade is US companies going to China with their brand and contracting out their manufacturing so they can make
more profit. There are not a lot of Chinese brand consumer products selling in the US. If these US companies don't contract out
to a Chinese company they go to another low cost country. A lot of this work has been leaving China anyway and going
to places like Indonesia, Vietnam, etc... These jobs aren't coming to the United States.
Click to expand...
I hope they sell all the US debt they own, but they won't. China has been aggressively dumping US debt over the last year and interest rates haven't done ****. You don't really understand this issue, do you?
 
IndySteel said:
It's already helping the steel mills. One thing for sure is that the quality of everything made here instead of China will be improved tenfold. **** China.
Click to expand...

And what about the price?
 
21STEELERS21 said:
If there was a trade war, China would sell the US Treasuries they have and shoot up our interest rates.
Click to expand...

The United States has already sold those treasury notes, so China re-selling them would have only minimal effect on new T-bill rates. Would the increased supply of available T-bills have a modest effect? Perhaps.

But remember, the T-bills the Chinese hold are locked in at "x" percent return. Given that the country has monetized the debt for 8 years, the designated interest rate on those bills is low - very low.

To beat that rate, the Treasury would need to tick up the designated return from 2.75% to 2.85%. No big deal.

21STEELERS21 said:
They have the much stronger hand to play.
Click to expand...

In a trade war, the winner is usually the country which sees money flowing out and products flowing in. Specifically, the money that was flowing out now stays in the United States, and our manufacturing increases to supply products that we used to import. Both outcomes assist the United States in this instance.

Troglodyte said:
And what about the price?
Click to expand...

That is the true issue in a potential trade war. The increased manufacturing in the United States will be done at greater price to the consumer. That is a fact. The increased prices are offset, to some extent, by the higher-paying manufacturing jobs and the greater income among our citizens, but I have no doubt that a trade war would increase price to the consumer for those goods we import from China.
 
There won't be any trade war. That's old politics and those outdated ideas are part of the past.

Russia and China will fall in line behind President Trump.
 
IndySteel said:
You might have to pay a dollar more for a shirt, but that shirt will actually be the right size and won't get destroyed after 3 washes.
Click to expand...

I think prices would be significantly higher. When I look around the net at site that purport to sell American Made items (it has been a year or so), the prices are way higher than $1 more. With more being made here, competition may drive the price down some, just depends on the amount and, if demand goes up, the effect of competition will be dampened.

of course, less regulation and taxation will help lower prices here, too.
 
Troglodyte said:
As if you could teach Warren Buffet or Mark Cuban anything about market forces.
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So you are arguing that I can't teach Buffet or Cuban anything about market forces, therefore it makes sense that you liberals are all of a sudden are trying to use them in arguments? Well done.
 
A lot of manufacturing has moved to China because of Walmart. They have a reputation for squeezing their vendors on price forcing them to
move manufacturing to the lowest cost provider.
 
China is still our largest creditor with 1.16 trillion of treasuries. Down from high of 1.3 trillion. They haven't sold off much.
Americans don't save enough to cover our deficits, so foreigners need to chip in. Donald's economic plans are likely to
balloon the deficit, so we will need more foreign contribution. If foreigners lose confidence, we will have to raise interest rates to
attract buyers.
 
21STEELERS21 said:
China is still our largest creditor with 1.16 trillion of treasuries. Down from high of 1.3 trillion. They haven't sold off much.
Americans don't save enough to cover our deficits, so foreigners need to chip in. Donald's economic plans are likely to
balloon the deficit, so we will need more foreign contribution. If foreigners lose confidence, we will have to raise interest rates to
attract buyers.
Click to expand...

Trump is looking to cut pork. And with more people working, more people will be paying taxes. So we'll see if there is large deficit under Trump.

If Trump wants, the USA could sell Oil to pay off all debt to China, then our hand would be even stronger.
 
Coach said:
Trump is looking to cut pork. And with more people working, more people will be paying taxes. So we'll see if there is large deficit under Trump.
Click to expand...

I'd like to see the math on that, add in reducing corporate taxes 233%.
 
Who would Trump sell oil too? OPEC is cutting production because there is a glut of oil.

At 4.6% unemployment, there aren't many people left to pay taxes. We might need this 4.6% to fill in the jobs being done by all those he
intends to deport.

The dirty little secret is we don't have enough people to support a high growth economy. We would need a lot more skilled and educated immigrants.
 
21STEELERS21 said:
At 4.6% unemployment
Click to expand...

Double that and you might be closer


What's the real unemployment rate?

Every month on jobs day, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics puts out a ton of employment-related data, each of which tells its own story about the state of the economy. Economists look past the official unemployment rate — known as the "U-3" number — to other metrics that provide more nuanced views of the employment situation.

The U-3 rate is defined as the "total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force," but doesn't include a number of employment situations. A broader figure is the U-6 rate, which many economists rely on as a more accurate portrayal of employment in the country.

In the widely reported unemployment rate (U-3), the BLS only counts those who have looked for a job in the past four weeks as unemployed. They're included in the labor force because their jobless situation is only temporary.Once they haven't looked for a job in the past four weeks are no longer counted as unemployed or in the labor force

The current U6 unemployment rate as of November 2016 is 9.30%

https://www.thebalance.com/what-is-the-real-unemployment-rate-3306198
 
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