The lower estimates are very much related to the social distancing and stay at home orders in my opinion. Had we done nothing our Hospitals would be a **** show now like NYC is turning into. As a parent of a Nurse currently on a COVID 19 ward in Cincinnati I am extremely grateful for the proactive measures taken by Mike Dewine in Ohio. We are fairing much much better than the states around us are because he did this much earlier than most. Infection rates are highest among our frontline healthcare workers and that scares the **** out of me for my daughter particularly as I have mentioned she is a type 1 diabetic. Two days ago they had no positive cases on her floor now she will have a floor full tonight. Please keep her in your prayers. That being said it does make sense that HC workers have a higher infection rate as they have a much higher opportunity to be exposed. My company is allowing me to do all my sales calls virtually or to reschedule if they don't want a virtual appointment without taking away my leads. Nurses can't do that, If this surges much more she will have to start working longer hours and risk more exposure and the hospital will run out of ICU beds and Vents this is when it goes from being just the flu to the **** hitting and the fan.
I apologize if I seem to repeat myself but I truly don't think some are grasping the problem we face from this without flattening the curve. If it did not require so many ventilators and induced comas for many of the severe cases you wouldn't be seeing any where near the same reaction. The flu has a much lower rate of Vents being needed mainly because we have some very good treatment options and history of how to deal with it and it is not hitting all at once.
So I will apologize once again but it hits very close to home for me. I am making my daughter a dinner to take for her 12 hour overnight shift right now. Luckily she has 7 straight days off in a row after tonight unless they go to mandatory overtime. If they do she will be making some serious bank at 3 times base pay plus shift differential.
Flatten the curve theory was never built for long term use... it isn’t meant to eradicate viruses that have gone worldwide... it’s meant to simply create a swath of immune individuals to act as a buffer and draw out the peak
Its over... extending it too long risks adverse effects that have zilch to do with economics... you keep high risks in linited isolation then open up the general public to infection hoping that the majority of the cases will be the mildest and least symptomatic strains creating herd immunity
Pushing lockdown past the summer is a horrible idea...
Assuming 20 days for recovery we should have several generations of immune persons now... especially with undocumented cases...
This is just math... the leading virologist in the UK said when they had 2000 confirmed cases they had about a million altogether because of the spread factor
A lot of people have it or had it already... the vast majority won’t show symptoms... the severity is expected to be in the low single digits once the estimated cases are factored in
Yes we needed to keep a handle on the initial uncontrolled spread, but any long break creates a huge dip in the bell curve. Standard social distancing in warm months is going to be fine...this virus hasn’t shown the same spread factors in warm climates yet... most die much quicker in warm temps...