The Coronavirus thread

[Troglodyte]

Steeltime already dropped the bigger hammer. I'll drop a different one.

Go back to the logic. We know the doom and gloom models INCLUDED assumptions for social distancing.

Use a hypothesis. Say a model says "With social distancing measures in place, we expect to see 140,000 deaths, 600,000 hospitalizations and x, y and z."

Then the virus hits. And we see the actual numbers are expecting 60,000 deaths, 300,000 hospitalizations and x, y and z."

The numbers dropped. And we social distanced.

One cannot say "See social distancing worked and lowered the numbers!"

BECAUSE THE MODELS ALREADY FACTORED THAT IN.

You cannot use a model that includes assumptions, have the model come in drastically lower than it predicted, then say because of the assumptions that were baked in, see it worked!

Good lord.

FFS! It’s called a variable, Tim. You argue as if social distancing is some fixed objective measure.

They didn’t know exactly how much society would abide by social distancing (variable 1) and exactly how effective it would be if they did (variable 2). Furthermore, they aren’t able to easily measure the variable. Those are assumptions they had to make, along with many others. For all we know, society hasn’t social distanced as much as assumed, but it has worked much better than assumed, OR vice-versa. But the evidence is that, overall, it is working. What else would explain the drop in new cases?

 

[SteelerInLebanon]

But you are simply wrong here. California and New York had identical contact and interaction restrictions just two days apart. San Francisco and Los Angeles have huge contact with Asia. The ******* port of Los Angeles and LAX are the two points of contact for deliveries from China, travelers from China in the United States, tourists from China to the US, etc.

So simply repeating, "Oh, California had more stringent contact restrictions and enforced them more vigorously" sounds good in theory but is simply NOT TRUE. I provided links to the measures implemented and when. Some other explanation is needed, and that explanation is that "herd immunity" took place in California beginning in November, when the virus appeared, through late January. Herd immunity is a very well-known and documented phenomenon and explains California's miniscule mortality rate. Seriously, 374 out of 40 million?? Because of "social distancing" enacted nearly four months after the virus arose and more than three months after California experienced its first fatality from the virus?

Nope.

Nope, the New York restrictions were never enforced like the others. Primarily due to the freaking subway and on top of that their population density is much higher. California enacted much tougher restrictions than NYC.

 

[madinsomniac]

FFS! It’s called a variable, Tim. You argue as if social distancing is some fixed objective measure.

They didn’t know exactly how much society would abide by social distancing (variable 1) and exactly how effective it would be if they did (variable 2). Furthermore, they aren’t able to easily measure the variable. Those are assumptions they had to make, along with many others. For all we know, society hasn’t social distanced as much as assumed, but it has worked much better than assumed, OR vice-versa. But the evidence is that, overall, it is working. What else would explain the drop in new cases?

Ummmm how about the virus was here months before it was acknowledged, ran its course and people simply didn’t notice... the case increas happened proportional to the increased testing... we found more cases, more cases did not just happen... its been steady and we are just finding it more, much like the death increase has come with a proportional drop in influeza and other morbid disease deaths... cause now we are testing everyone ill for it and attributing all of those deaths to it...


The stuff i posted earlier about the antibody testing is going to be key... i can straight up tell you my office was engulfed early this year and late last year from an upper respiratory illness that lasted weeks but was fairly mild. Same with my brothers machine shop, same with the mill bars round here...

The Chinese lied and covered it up for a very long time... at least from early November by many estimates maybe even October or September... this isnt the start, it’s the middle... late middle...

 

[Troglodyte]

Ummmm how about the virus was here months before it was acknowledged, ran its course and people simply didn’t notice... the case increas happened proportional to the increased testing... we found more cases, more cases did not just happen... its been steady and we are just finding it more, much like the death increase has come with a proportional drop in influeza and other morbid disease deaths... cause now we are testing everyone ill for it and attributing all of those deaths to it...


The stuff i posted earlier about the antibody testing is going to be key... i can straight up tell you my office was engulfed early this year and late last year from an upper respiratory illness that lasted weeks but was fairly mild. Same with my brothers machine shop, same with the mill bars round here...

The Chinese lied and covered it up for a very long time... at least from early November by many estimates maybe even October or September... this isnt the start, it’s the middle... late middle...

If that were the case NYC hospitals would have been overwhelmed months ago with people suffering respiratory distress.

 

[Steeltime]

If that were the case NYC hospitals would have been overwhelmed months ago with people suffering respiratory distress.

That is certainly one possibility. Another possibility, that we simply ignore for some reason, is that a lot of the United States was exposed to the virus beginning in say September through November, but the virus did not disable many, affected mainly the healthy, "herd immunity" took place, and stemmed the spread to the at-risk in California, Arizona, Oregon, etc.

How about this? Trump describes the "herd immunity" explanation as bullshit, the press and liberals tear their zippers trying to jerk off to the theory?

 

[SteelerInLebanon]

That is certainly one possibility. Another possibility, that we simply ignore for some reason, is that a lot of the United States was exposed to the virus beginning in say September through November, but the virus did not disable many, affected mainly the healthy, "herd immunity" took place, and stemmed the spread to the at-risk in California, Arizona, Oregon, etc.

How about this? Trump describes the "herd immunity" explanation as bullshit, the press and liberals tear their zippers trying to jerk off to the theory?

The first case was not found until November in Wuhan and sickness until December. THis might have spread here in November but not any earlier. Unless it did not come from China which I doubt.

 

[Steeltime]

The first case was not found until November in Wuhan and sickness until December. THis might have spread here in November but not any earlier. Unless it did not come from China which I doubt.

Yeah, I hear 'ya.

But that accepts the timeline from China about the virus not arising until November. Do you and I accept a single statement from China about the disease, including the timeline about its start?

 

[Steelr4evr]

If you look at the good side of this. It should bring a lot more buisness back home and not as much Made In China. They are not our friends. They've proved it beyond any shadow of doubt. So what if we have to pay a little more vs slave labor wages in China.

I couldn't find a good mask so I'm ordering a full Darth Vader mask&helmet for the grocery store and driving.

 

[Tim Steelersfan]

Full disclosure since I've been so vocal on this issue.

I have two sons. The oldest is a sophomore at Ohio State University. He went to Ft. Lauderdale for spring break. He arrived home to my house March 17, three weeks, 2 days ago. He's in excellent physical shape (works out like a man child lifting and running).

Tuesday he felt feverish, chills, and aches. Felt like he was going to pass out when he stood up. Developed a slight cough. Yesterday he slept in, got up, still a little cough and chest congestion. By evening said he felt fine. Today, he was coughing a little and has a little chest congestion again. He's had no fever signs since Tuesday and no "difficulty" breathing.

His college roommate is down with symptoms in his home town. He tested negative for strep and flu, etc. Hasn't been COVID tested though. Again, my son hadn't seen him for exactly three weeks when he got symptoms.

We contacted his Dr's office today, did a tele-medicine visit with a PNP who looped us in with another doctor on video. Since I'm an asthmatic, since he was at Spring Break, since his roommate has symptoms, they approved him to get tested.

He's on his way right now (alone) to Fairfax VA from our home in MD and should be getting swabbed any moment. He's been quarantined in his room for 2 days and will be when he returns until we get the results. Praying it is negative.

I still stand behind this being an over-reaction.

EDIT: Since he has been home, he's been locked down save for going to the grocery store with me wearing gloves. He snuck out one night two weeks ago and met friends at his school and touched no one, swears he didn't get within 6 feet. IF he has it, he's carried it for 3 weeks....OR going to the grocery store ain't that safe (per Steeltime's legitimate claims).

 

[Tim Steelersfan]

FFS! It’s called a variable, Tim. You argue as if social distancing is some fixed objective measure.

They didn’t know exactly how much society would abide by social distancing (variable 1) and exactly how effective it would be if they did (variable 2). Furthermore, they aren’t able to easily measure the variable. Those are assumptions they had to make, along with many others. For all we know, society hasn’t social distanced as much as assumed, but it has worked much better than assumed, OR vice-versa. But the evidence is that, overall, it is working. What else would explain the drop in new cases?

Good Lord Almighty you'd drive a man to drink.

You argue that I can't say that social distancing ISN'T working because it's a variable THEN complete your argument by saying the "evidence" shows social distancing is working............

If ever the line "You can't make **** up" was made for a situation, this is it.

And what else would explain it? That it's following the typical virus bell curve and it's on the decline. That cases are falling off as they have in Italy. That herd immunity is working and/or has been working for some time. That we are testing more and more and it's affecting the numbers. I don't know, pick a dozen other reasons.

 

[Steeltime]

Good Lord Almighty you'd drive a man to drink.

And yet, cannot contrive himself to think.

 

[Troglodyte]

Good Lord Almighty you'd drive a man to drink.

You argue that I can't say that social distancing ISN'T working because it's a variable THEN complete your argument by saying the "evidence" shows social distancing is working............

If ever the line "You can't make **** up" was made for a situation, this is it.

And what else would explain it? That it's following the typical virus bell curve and it's on the decline. That cases are falling off as they have in Italy. That herd immunity is working and/or has been working for some time. That we are testing more and more and it's affecting the numbers. I don't know, pick a dozen other reasons.

You can’t say that because the predictions appear to have been overstated that it was their inclusion of social distancing that was in error. They were predicting how many of 330 million people spread across 50 states and thousands of communities would die at a time when they were on the incline of the bell curve and deaths were increasing 50% day over day.

But you knew better? Sure. Continue screaming at the fools on TV.

 

[Tim Steelersfan]

You can’t say that because the predictions appear to have been overstated that it was their inclusion of social distancing that was in error.

But you can say that social distancing is working and that the social distancing variable was not in error????

Flogged: "It’s called a variable They didn’t know exactly how much society would abide by social distancing ...and... how effective it would be if they did...they aren’t able to easily measure the variable."

Flogged: "But the evidence is that, overall, it is working."

Translation: It's not measurable, but the evidence shows it's working.

You can't make this **** up.

Christ you're stumbling all over your own lack of logic.

 

[Tim Steelersfan]

By the way, for those of you saying this economic situation isn't like past economic downturns, you're right. It's potentially worse. We have had 16.6 Million Americans file for unemployment in the past 3 weeks alone.


During the Great Crash of 1929, it took over 10 months to get to those numbers.

 

[Troglodyte]

But you can say that social distancing is working and that the social distancing variable was not in error????

Flogged: "It’s called a variable They didn’t know exactly how much society would abide by social distancing ...and... how effective it would be if they did...they aren’t able to easily measure the variable."

Flogged: "But the evidence is that, overall, it is working."

Translation: It's not measurable, but the evidence shows it's working.

You can't make this **** up.

Christ you're stumbling all over your own lack of logic.

,

Ha! You’re argument is completely devoid of logic, Tim.

The country is practicing social distancing.

The people who know what they are talking about said with social distancing, we can expect 100-240k deaths, without it, the death toll would be much higher.

The death toll looks like it will be lower than 100k.

YOU conclude because it is lower, it obviously didn’t work! So... if it had been between 100-240k, only then would it have worked???

How could it possibly have hurt? And what difference does it make if your kid did or did not practice it with his friends? It didn’t work, right?

 

[Vader]

But you can say that social distancing is working and that the social distancing variable was not in error????

Flogged: "It’s called a variable They didn’t know exactly how much society would abide by social distancing ...and... how effective it would be if they did...they aren’t able to easily measure the variable."

Flogged: "But the evidence is that, overall, it is working."

Translation: It's not measurable, but the evidence shows it's working.

You can't make this **** up.

Christ you're stumbling all over your own lack of logic.

This is why arguing with people that don't understand modeling or science is useless. In the first IHME models they plugged the variables in with both high and low projections. That range is not disputable. That means that they used variables for the low end for people following proper procedures perfectly and then the upper end for people not taking it seriously. The models were not wrong based on this variable. It's ignorance of how models work to suggest that the variable was wrong. IT CAN'T BE WRONG. Because the variable is not static. It's a range based on how the virus spreads.

This is not the first Corona virus. There are two other COV viruses that I remember. Both SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV have similar structures and why this virus is linked to bats. SARS, MERS and now SARS-CoV-2 are almost 90% similar and the evidence is overwhelming that it jumped from bats to humans or bats to a transitional animal then to humans.

 

[Tim Steelersfan]

Dr. Ben Carson with words of wisdom:

"Well keep in mind that a lot of people that have the virus are completely asymptomatic. Somewhere between 25 and 50 percent. So you probably do know someone who has it. You may have it. Who knows. But uh people have been terrified because we've talked about the bad. One of the things we don't seem to talk about a lot are the number of people who have recovered which is going to be about 98% of all the people who get it...they're going to do quite well. And uh we need to really start talking that up and start talking about what we can do and not how we're going to be harnessed because the fact of the matter is if we destroy the economic infrastructure of our country, we're gonna lose a lot more people than we lost from this virus so we can't operate out of hysteria. When people are hysterical they don't do logical things."

 

[Tim Steelersfan]

,

Ha! You’re argument is completely devoid of logic, Tim.

See Vader's reply. I'm done arguing with a wall.

 

[Steelworth]

Just going to put this here. Re: our wonderful media and the powers that be:

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Amazon Removes Mike Cernovich‘s Documentary ‘Hoaxed‘ from Prime Video <a href="https://t.co/pcIOpeHKN6">https://t.co/pcIOpeHKN6</a></p>— Cernovich (@Cernovich) <a href="https://twitter.com/Cernovich/status/1248389375886389249?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 9, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

I put the documentary in my "watch later" list a few weeks back, and I just went to my Amazon Prime video account and it's gone. All other searches I try, nothing. Others are saying they *bought* the damn movie and it's no longer in their library. THAT right there seems dangerous to me (on Amazon's part).

 

[Steelworth]

See Vader's reply. I'm done arguing with a wall.

And you notice every one of his replies now starts with "FFS!" "Ha!" "OMG!"? What a clown.

And wise words from Dr. Carson indeed. And to those last two sentences in his remarks, look no further than the first line in my sig from Nietzsche. Group madness.

 

[Tim Steelersfan]

And you notice every one of his replies now starts with "FFS!" "Ha!" "OMG!"? What a clown.

And wise words from Dr. Carson indeed. And to those last two sentences in his remarks, look no further than the first line in my sig from Nietzsche. Group madness.

You must spread some Reputation around before giving it to Steelworth again.

Was going to give you rep for your Avatar. Brilliant.

 

[SteelerInLebanon]

Good Lord Almighty you'd drive a man to drink.

You argue that I can't say that social distancing ISN'T working because it's a variable THEN complete your argument by saying the "evidence" shows social distancing is working............

If ever the line "You can't make **** up" was made for a situation, this is it.

And what else would explain it? That it's following the typical virus bell curve and it's on the decline. That cases are falling off as they have in Italy. That herd immunity is working and/or has been working for some time. That we are testing more and more and it's affecting the numbers. I don't know, pick a dozen other reasons.

Where are you seeing a decline? we have over a thousand more cases today than yesterday. And will be about the same in deaths. Plateauing to degree hopefully but not yet on the down turn.

 

[Stoney]

The death numbers are at best inaccurate. A more factual statement would be that they are intentionally dishonest.

 

[Steelr4evr]

Over 17k cases in florida. 374 deaths. The 3 counties in my area are still below 1000 total cases with 30 or less fatalities. I just don't see it blowing up anymore.

 

[SteelerInLebanon]

The death numbers are at best inaccurate. A more factual statement would be that they are intentionally dishonest.

The weird things is depending where you go they are arguing it is way to low and others too high. Worldwide I think it is extremely low compared to reality thanks to China, Russia and Iran. In the US My wifes nursing group feels that based on their view it is too low, I know many on here say we are reporting all deaths as Covid19 but according to many nurses they are seeing a lot of deaths that are not categorized as covid because they were not tested not being reported. So which is it? I think we are possibly relatively close in the US but low. I know TIm and few others won't agree but I think for every death they feel should not be counted there those that were not and should be.

I see both sides of the argument just interesting it is truly going both directions.