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The Coronavirus thread

SteelerInLebanon said:
I don't find your "facts" to hold any greater value because you don't have the guts to admit despite your claims, that what you post is still just your opinion.
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Do you know the difference between facts and opinions?

Real "plans" for re-opening began being publicized yesterday, maybe as early as the day before no? How long have I been banging this drum?
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Facts. The plans for opening back up have truly begun to materialize in the past 2 days. Maybe 3. I have been banging the drum that the shut down is worse than the cure for much longer. None of this is opinion.

People by the tens of thousands will die from the cure.
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Facts. Not opinions. Every single economic blip ever has led to an increase in suicide. The more severe the downturn, the higher the suicide rate. Heart attacks increase during and after economic downturns. Poverty leads to increased health problems and death. Increased poverty leads to increases in drug and alcohol abuse and deaths. All of this is factually documented truth.

some % of Americans will die as a result of what's been done.
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Fact.

22 Million unemployed in one month.
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Fact.

I don't believe otherwise. I know we will get through this. You miss the point and have since the beginning. At what cost? If we lose 65,000 to CV19 and 130,000 to the cure and set our economy back 10 years or even 3, were the decisions right? I get a vote. I say no. If it goes that way.
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One may argue this borders on opinion, but the suggestion that we could lose 130,000 lives due to the cure comes from the documented studies and reports that show with an x% increase in unemployment, we see x% increase in suicide, heart attacks, etc. It's a projection, not an opinion based upon historical evidence.

You said: You will see a renewed spirit of cooperation between companies and workers.

I replied: Those companies still in business. Those workers who still have a job to go back to. You miss a fantastic problem. Of the 22 million unemployed, what % have a job to go back to? Those that don't have fewer jobs to apply for now.
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This is a factual statement. I'm merely pointing out that while there may be renewed cooperation between companies/workers as you state, you're missing the point that not all companies still exist and therefore they cannot cooperate with workers if they aren't in existence. It's a fact that there are now fewer jobs to go back to.

You stated: You will see people going out of their way to patronize businesses they once took fro granted, at least for awhile.

I replied: You mean those that have a paycheck and money to spend will return to those businesses that were fortunate enough to stay open. The restaurant business has taken a $25BILLION hit so far. That's with a big fat Giant B. How many restaurants closed, what %? A **** TON.

So the people who have money may patronize the businesses that survived. We will not snap back to what it was before.
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It's a factual question. I agree, people will try to patronize businesses that survived, but it is a factual point to illustrate that may business cannot be supported if they are shut down for good and many are AND that many people won't be able to afford to patronize businesses because they have no paycheck.

You stated: We are far less damaged than we were in previous downturns at this point.

I replied: WTF?? It's stupid **** like this that makes a man wanna pull his hair out, when you literally profess falsehoods as truth. Please for the love of god go do some research. I've countered this point 7 times? 12? One week ago we were at 16.6 Million unemployed, a figure that took 10.5 months to get to during the great depression. We are now at 22Million. We've had to add Trillions more to the debt.

This will be worse than the Great Recession of 2008. Already is by many different measures.
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These are facts. 16.6 Million were unemployed last week. 22 million are unemployed now. Trillions were added to the debt. And this economic situation is already worse than the 2008 Great Recession.

You said: Yes I agree with you if this goes to long you would be right

I said: It already has
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That one is an opinion.

Beyond that last point, me thinking the shut down has gone too long, can you please support your claim that what I've posted is opinion? Everything else is a fact that I can spend hours supporting with hard evidence.
 
madinsomniac said:
https://spectator.us/stanford-study-suggests-coronavirus-more-widespread-realized/

15 to 20% of the population probably has been exposed... and it’s probably slanted to population spread... when they do antibodies testing in New York its expected to yield astronomical numbers
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That is a fantastic article (and not just because it supports what I have been saying):

But it is one more piece in a jigsaw which is slowly building up a picture of a virus which may be far more prevalent — and possibly far less deadly — than was at first believed. As has been argued here before, knowing the general level of infection in the population is absolutely crucial because this informs both the virulence and the mortality rate of the infection. If only a small percentage of the population have had the virus, then it might be worth continuing with lockdown policies. But if SARS-Cov-2 is already endemic in the population there is nothing we can do to stop it but no great reason to try to stop it, either: it has already ripped its way through the population with only a small proportion showing any symptoms.
 
madinsomniac said:
Ohio is starting to reopen as of may 1st
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That’s good...maybe the Hall of Fame ceremony won’t be cancelled and I’ll get to see Troy...
 
Tim Steelersfan said:
Do you know the difference between facts and opinions?



Facts. The plans for opening back up have truly begun to materialize in the past 2 days. Maybe 3. I have been banging the drum that the shut down is worse than the cure for much longer. None of this is opinion. Your statement that this is worse than the cure is in fact opinion, that you have said it is fact.



Facts. Not opinions. Every single economic blip ever has led to an increase in suicide. The more severe the downturn, the higher the suicide rate. Heart attacks increase during and after economic downturns. Poverty leads to increased health problems and death. Increased poverty leads to increases in drug and alcohol abuse and deaths. All of this is factually documented truth. True but we don't know the extent to which this one will last or how many will actually be lost to suicide versus the disease, you can't prove how long this will last or the severity of the problem you forecast so it is opinion in that it you think it will be worse than the virus which we do not know with any factual basis at this point.



Fact.



Fact.



One may argue this borders on opinion, but the suggestion that we could lose 130,000 lives due to the cure comes from the documented studies and reports that show with an x% increase in unemployment, we see x% increase in suicide, heart attacks, etc. It's a projection, not an fact, based upon historical evidence. But it is in fact an opinion even if based on historical data, that data set is not under the same circumstances so it is of less value in a direct comparison of variables.



This is a factual statement. I'm merely pointing out that while there may be renewed cooperation between companies/workers as you state, you're missing the point that not all companies still exist and therefore they cannot cooperate with workers if they aren't in existence. It's a fact that there are now fewer jobs to go back to. At this point it is mostly based on conjecture and not a fully known set of facts to say how many, we have lost a few businesses from this but many it is still unknown as to the size of the loss, I will concede there have and will be some but I don't see the loss being as great as you do with opening in May, past that you may well be correct. It is still partially based on opinion for both of us and is not set in stone what is going to happen.



It's a factual question. I agree, people will try to patronize businesses that survived, but it is a factual point to illustrate that may business cannot be supported if they are shut down for good and many are AND that many people won't be able to afford to patronize businesses because they have no paycheck. See My last point they are the same. Still based on the opinion or guess of how many jobs and or businesses will be lost and it will depend on the length of the shutdown.



These are facts. 16.6 Million were unemployed last week. 22 million are unemployed now. Trillions were added to the debt. And this economic situation is already worse than the 2008 Great Recession. Again only to this point. Going into the future neither you nor I can say that the lasting impact will or won't be worse, I say it won't based on the nature of the slowdown and that is certainly an opinion but so is saying it will be worse. I will concede the numbers on the surface at this point are worse but the underlying factors and cause are different and that is also a fact that changes the equation going forward for forecasting.



That one is an opinion.

Beyond that last point, me thinking the shut down has gone too long, can you please support your claim that what I've posted is opinion? Everything else is a fact that I can spend hours supporting with hard evidence.
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I just did above. Facts have layers. While on the surface you make statements based in fact my responses are also based in facts as I have said. You have to admit it is a fact that the nature of and cause of this slowdown are quite different to the cause and facts of the slowdowns you compare them to. It is a fact that neither of us know exactly how and if those underlying factual differences will affect the short and long term outcome. We are both using facts to create models. At the point either of us do that it becomes opinion or conjecture and as we have seen everyone's models are for ****.
 
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Superman said:
below is my quote...

i'm never suggested that Smithfield closed due to stay-home orders. show me where in my statement that I said that. I said that Smithfield closed. People are staying home.
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Please, who do you think you’re kidding?

Then WHY when I asked you what it had to do with the economic shutdown, you couldn’t believe I didn’t know the supposedly obvious answer? Quite an odd response given that you are now acknowledging that it didn’t have anything to do with it.
 
A point about re-opening the economy. If you think it’s too dangerous to go out, you are still free to stay home and only go out once per week for groceries. That’s what is on display here. Dems hate free will. Because you may choose to do something they don’t approve of. That is why they are the authoritarians. That’s why communism always ends up as a police state.
 
Troglodyte said:
Please, who do you think you’re kidding?

Then WHY when I asked you what it had to do with the economic shutdown, you couldn’t believe I didn’t know the supposedly obvious answer? Quite an odd response given that you are now acknowledging that it didn’t have anything to do with it.
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I honestly have no idea whatsoever what you believe or what points you are trying to make. Seems you just try to make tiny and petty semantic arguments. As such, I generally skip even reading your posts. But every so often I do read them if only to confirm they are a waste of time.
 
Troglodyte said:
Then WHY when I asked you what it had to do with the economic shutdown, you couldn’t believe I didn’t know the supposedly obvious answer? Quite an odd response given that you are now acknowledging that it didn’t have anything to do with it.
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tenor.gif


Re-read what Supe, TSF and I wrote. We provided a litany of explanations, most of them different from one another, explaining the relationship between the economic shutdown and closing of food processing locations, specifically meat processing, including:

  • Restaurants closed by shutdown orders.
  • No demand for significant quantities of food/meat at those locations.
  • Interruption in demand leads to short-term lowering of demand, harm to meat processing locations that count on such demand.
  • Schools closed by shutdown order.
  • Employees have nowhere to put their kids.
  • That means they cannot work, no matter their job being exempt from shutdown or not.
  • Result is that employees cannot work due to shutdown.
  • The demand for supplies by quasi-hoarders is short-term.
  • Once that demand evaporates - and it always does - the repercussion is lowering of demand short-term since restaurants closed, individual demand lowered, overall demand (short term, i.e., 3 months or less) lowered.
  • Short term lowered demand leads to lack of demand for product.
  • But that short term change is not long term.
  • Need the goddamn locations long-term, but not available due to restaurant closures, school closures, short-term demand fluctuations.

Got it? If not, I no longer give a ****.
 
SteelerInLebanon said:
I just did above. Facts have layers. While on the surface you make statements based in fact my responses are also based in facts as I have said. You have to admit it is a fact that the nature of and cause of this slowdown are quite different to the cause and facts of the slowdowns you compare them to. It is a fact that neither of us know exactly how and if those underlying factual differences will affect the short and long term outcome. We are both using facts to create models. At the point either of us do that it becomes opinion or conjecture and as we have seen everyone's models are for ****.
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:::facepalm:::

Stating I think companies and workers will work together, stating "this isn't as bad as past economic downturns" without any links to any evidence to support the claim is not fact. I could go on.

I pointed out - point by point - facts also supported by evidence. Not opinions.

You're not using facts, 90% of the time.
 
Tim Steelersfan said:
:::facepalm:::

Stating I think companies and workers will work together, stating "this isn't as bad as past economic downturns" without any links to any evidence to support the claim is not fact. I could go on.

I pointed out - point by point - facts also supported by evidence. Not opinions.

You're not using facts, 90% of the time.
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I said this isn't the same as past economic downturns and that is a fact. It was not caused by economic pressures or a poor economy, FACT. It was caused by and it is a temporary measure.


I will point out that while the mortality rate of 4.2 is misleading as we both know, it was a FACT based on the available hard numbers. The unemployment numbers are a FACT based on employment applications, but they are also misleading if trying to look at real, ie permanent or long term unemployment, because just like total cases of covid for mortality numbers we do not know how many jobs will or won't be permanently lost. So in one instance you scream about the real numbers being different, but when someone else makes the exact same type of point to you, you scream FACT. My point that the long term unemployment number versus those who are just furloughed short term is a valid comparison to the argument over mortality rates which we actually agree on. We just don't have the full data yet to try and really use those numbers to justify anything as far as long term damage to the economy and that is all based on FACTS.
 
Steeltime said:
tenor.gif


Re-read what Supe, TSF and I wrote. We provided a litany of explanations, most of them different from one another, explaining the relationship between the economic shutdown and closing of food processing locations, specifically meat processing, including:

  • Restaurants closed by shutdown orders.
  • No demand for significant quantities of food/meat at those locations.
  • Interruption in demand leads to short-term lowering of demand, harm to meat processing locations that count on such demand.
  • Schools closed by shutdown order.
  • Employees have nowhere to put their kids.
  • That means they cannot work, no matter their job being exempt from shutdown or not.
  • Result is that employees cannot work due to shutdown.
  • The demand for supplies by quasi-hoarders is short-term.
  • Once that demand evaporates - and it always does - the repercussion is lowering of demand short-term since restaurants closed, individual demand lowered, overall demand (short term, i.e., 3 months or less) lowered.
  • Short term lowered demand leads to lack of demand for product.
  • But that short term change is not long term.
  • Need the goddamn locations long-term, but not available due to restaurant closures, school closures, short-term demand fluctuations.

Got it? If not, I no longer give a ****.
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Oh, but you do!

BTW, go back. Tim claimed the demand for meat was up 30%. You guys don’t know what the **** you’re trying to argue. And your points are very Trumpesque “short term change is not long term”? LOL!

I post 50 words and all three of you feel compelled to reply with 500 - 5,000. Nuff’ said.
 
Tim Steelersfan said:
:::facepalm:::

Stating I think companies and workers will work together, stating "this isn't as bad as past economic downturns" without any links to any evidence to support the claim is not fact. I could go on.

I pointed out - point by point - facts also supported by evidence. Not opinions.

You're not using facts, 90% of the time.
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Oh and one other undeniable fact. We all have way to much time on our hands to the point we have nothing better to do than annoy the **** out of each other out of boredom or entertainment and release of frustrations on others. I am certainly guilty.
 
Troglodyte said:
Oh, but you do!

BTW, go back. Tim claimed the demand for meat was up 30%.
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Uhhh, I accurately quoted a relevant part of what TSF said, specifically, short-term uptick in demand that leads to longer-term problems.

It's in my bullet points. Too bad schools are closed or you could have a 2nd grader explain it to you.
 
NCSteelerfan said:
Yeah, there is that, but it is Louisburg and that is located within Franklin County. I live near the Johnston county line, and there is no shortage of grubby funny smelling places around there either. Of course, those counties also have the better moonshine. :chug:
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I used to get some shine every now and again from some guys in the NC National Guard. They made an excellent BBQ sauce also.
 
Huh, lockdown fans, can you enlighten me as to why nations with very, very limited social lockdowns - only the at-risk, schools still open, businesses open, life goes on - are doing just fine, thank you??

Sweden implemented the limited lockdown I described above. People are out and about, going to restaurants, going outside, schools still open. OH MY GOD, they must be battling an apocalypse involving their entire population by now!!!! Ahhhhhhh .... !!!!!!!!!

Yeah, no. Sweden is experiencing 139 deaths per 1,000,000 of population.

https://virusncov.com/

Netherlands, next door and with a much, MUCH more restrictive lockdown, is experiencing 202 deaths per 1,000,000 of population.

Switzerland 153 deaths per million; Denmark 58; Belgium 445; Spain 419; Italy 376; United Kingdom 215; United States 109.

So Sweden's much, much, MUCH more limited lockdown, affecting you know, the VULNERABLE, is working.

I expect the apologies from the lockdown crowd to begin in 3 ... 2 ... 1 ...
 
SteelerInLebanon said:
I said this isn't the same as past economic downturns and that is a fact. It was not caused by economic pressures or a poor economy, FACT. It was caused by and it is a temporary measure.
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Fine I will concede. Those are factual statements. HOWEVER, you make those statements to infer this will be different and not as bad. And that is an unsubstantiated opinion. It is a hope of yours and nothing more despite the clear evidence that this is going to be worse.

SteelerInLebanon said:
I will point out that while the mortality rate of 4.2 is misleading as we both know, it was a FACT based on the available hard numbers.
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That is not a fact. The death rate has never ever been 4.2%. Until we know the results of the antibody testing and accurate details emerge allowing us to closely estimate the number of infected not tested, we will never have a mortality rate. It wasn't a fact then, it isn't a fact now. It was a mathematical error then and still is. 2 + 2 = 4 is factual. If I say 2 + 2 = 9 because "theories" at the time supported it, then later say it's really 4 but it was a fact then...I'm wrong.

SteelerInLebanon said:
The unemployment numbers are a FACT based on employment applications, but they are also misleading if trying to look at real, ie permanent or long term unemployment, because just like total cases of covid for mortality numbers we do not know how many jobs will or won't be permanently lost.
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None of which changes the situation that 22 million are currently unemployed. There's nothing at all misleading about it. Telling you the unemployment rate today is no different than me quoting it on June 17, 2016. Each measure will include long term and short term unemployed due to any million number of mitigating factors in a market at a point in time. In 2017 or 2014 or 1996 we didn't know at any moment in time what # of jobs are permanently lost. The unemployment rate IS the unemployment rate and the absolute numbers by themselves are an incredibly strong indicator of where we are.

You can't dismiss the severity of TWENTY TWO MILLION (because you support the shut down).

SteelerInLebanon said:
So in one instance you scream about the real numbers being different, but when someone else makes the exact same type of point to you, you scream FACT. My point that the long term unemployment number versus those who are just furloughed short term is a valid comparison to the argument over mortality rates which we actually agree on.
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I'm sorry, they just are not comparable debates. One is a known right now. 22 million unemployed. Being impacted NOW. Not waiting on some result. Today they are not being paid. Today they don't have or soon won't have health insurance. Today they may not be able to get healthcare. Today their mortgage isn't getting paid. They are being impacted NOW. And this unemployment number is rising.

SteelerInLebanon said:
We just don't have the full data yet to try and really use those numbers to justify anything as far as long term damage to the economy and that is all based on FACTS.
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No one is arguing about the long term impact on the economy. We are, as I said, in the here and now and lives are being impacted NOW. And facts show when this many are unemployed, and this many businesses shut down and the Fed messes with money and interest rates as they do in times like these, the impact will be long. True we don't know what the impact will be. But to argue "it's different" and won't be that bad because we just don't know is selling fools gold. It's wishing. When data shows...it's gonna be bad. We just don't know how bad yet.
 
So we have May 1 looming for states to allow themselves to open up. Around the same time the Durham Report and Barr indictments are due to be out. There's going to be some big names to be formally indicted. I expect to hear more about the possible 'up curve' than what we will hear about The Durham/Barr Indictments. Call it a hunch
 
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