College Football Week 15 Championship Week

[tapeANaspirin2it]

Hardly seems worthy of discussion with Penn State’s season finished but I suppose for sake of completeness, we can discuss the other less important teams.


But first, we must cover some Penn State news lest I be lynched by the throngs or angry readers who demand it.

WR Justin Shorter has entered the transfer portal and is likely gone although he could decide to stay if he doesn’t get interest from the schools he’s targeting.
DE Yetur Gross-Matos is entering the draft. A bit banged up this year but PFF has him as a top 20 pick so it’s a no brainer for him.
TE Pat Freiermuth and C Michael Menet have both announced they are staying.
No decision yet for WR KJ Hamler. He is likely waiting for the NFL scouting report which comes in a few weeks. WR is usually a loaded position and if he doesn’t get the 1st round prediction he may stay.

Press conference later today for what most assume will be the announcement of a contract extension for James Franklin. Word is that Franklin mostly wanted a commitment for more money for assistant coaches and facilities rather than for himself, although he won’t be hurting for cash. It will help recruiting to offer stability. Do recruits think Harbaugh will be there for 4 years? Do Michigan fans?

Bowl Prospects - Penn State seems a sure bet for the Rose assuming Ohio State beats Wisconsin. The Rose is not bound by polls. They can choose any Big 10 vs PAC 12 matchup they like, aside from a playoff team obviously. If Wisconsin loses, it would seems Penn State is the pick, but they could choose 3 loss Big 10 West champ Wisconsin if they play close to OSU. They could potentially pick Minnesota as well if maybe they like their underdog story. I’m thinking money talks though and they go with the biggest TV draw Penn State. Other bowl options for Penn State could be the Orange, which gets tricky with bowl affiliations, or the Outback.


On to the Games in Chronological order

Friday Night
Pac 12 Championship 8:00 ABC - Levi’s Stadium
5 Utah vs 13 Oregon
Utah is 5 in the playoff ranking and may feel the pressure to try to win big. If Georgia beats LSU, then they Utah likely gets screwed as they will no doubt put both Georgia and LSU in the playoff. If Georgia loses a close game, they could still try to shove them in over Utah although that would be ridiculous.


Saturday

Big 12 Championship 12:00 ABC. Cowboys Stadium
7 Baylor vs 6 Oklahoma
Oklahoma won a close one a few weeks ago. Baylor has no depth and ran out of gas. That could happen again. In any case, the winner of this game needs to hope for LSU to beat Georgia handily and for Utah to lose for a shot at the playoff.


AAC Championship 3:30 ABC Liberty Bowl Stadium
20 Cincinnati vs 17 Memphis
Might be a great game by most people will probably only watch about 15 minutes of this between the end of the Big 12 game and start of the SEC game


SEC Championship 4:00 CBS Mercedes Benz Stadium Atlanta
4 Georgia vs 2 LSU
should be a must win for Georgia to make the playoff, but I have a feeling if they play close, they screw over the Big 12 and Pac 12 and shove Georgia in there. LSU has seeding at stake. Only way LSU misses the playoff is if they get blown out and even then, they’d probably still get the 4 seed. LSU wants the 1 seed to play Oklahoma or Utah instead of playing Clemson. Nobody wants to play Clemson.

I figure LSU will get the 1 seed unless they struggle vs Georgia and Ohio State blows out Wisconsin. They set up the rankings to pretty much assure that.


ACC Championship 7:30 ABC BOA Stadium Charlotte
23 Virginia vs 3 Clemson
Clemson just needs to win. They could get the 1 seed if both LSU and Ohio State lose or struggle, but i doubt it. Clemson seems locked into the 2 or 3 seed with a win here. Virginia is good but not great . I can’t see them hanging with Clemson with the playoff on the line.


Big Ten Championship 8:00 Fox Lucas Oil Stadium Indianapolis
1 Ohio State vs 8 Wisconsin
would Wisconsin even get in if they win this? I doubt it. Like LSU, Ohio State is playing for that 1seed and avoiding Clemson. Since LSU will have win vs the alleged 4th best team, it will take a blowout for Ohio State to secure the 1 seed even though they are currently the 1 seed. The committee set it up for LSU to jump OSU not only by ranking Georgia 4, but by slyly moving Florida up to 9 ahead of Penn State 10 for no reason last week. Oh, there was a reason. Both Georgia and LSU beat Florida, so now that helps their resume and knocks down Ohio State’s win vs Penn State just a touch. Just enough to maybe jump LSU back over Ohio State in the final poll.

Ohio State has looked unbeatable. That defense is loaded with NFL talent, some of which have already been paid like NFL players. The offense is explosive. The OL is solid. Dobbins is a really good RB, they have deep threat WRs and Fields can beat you running or passing. The only weakness has been some fumbling issues. That’s the only shot I see for Wisconsin is if OSU plays a terrible game and makes a bunch of turnovers.



My predictions
Utah beats Oregon
LSU beats Georgia - semi close, not a blowout but LSU controls the game. I can’t see Georgia scoring enough
Clemson wins easily
Ohio State blows out Wisconsin

Playoff matchups
1 LSU vs 4 Utah
2 Ohio State vs Clemson

 

[SteelerFan448]

The committee was very clever with the rankings. Utah gets a lowly seeded Oregon while Oklahoma gets, Baylor, one rank below them. Does a closer win against 7 outweigh a moderate win by 5 against 13?

 

[Spike]

I don't care who wins any of them, just want to see some good games, not blowouts, lol

 

[Omar10213245]

I don't care who wins any of them, just want to see some good games, not blowouts, lol

I want to see good games too, with the exception of the Big10 Championship. I want to see the Buckeyes blow out Wisconsin....saaay, something in the neighborhood of 59-0

 

[Spike]

Well yeah naturally

Go Buckeyes!

lol

 

[Sarge]

I wonder if Georgia ever regrets keeping Fromm over Fields. Fromm isn’t that great, I think Fields is much better.

 

[ExUSAF]

I fully expected Michigan to give Ohio State a game, especially in their own house after the lights came on in the second half of their game with Penn State. Assuming Ohio State stays healthy, I think they can run the table. Injuries are the great equalizer.

 

[tapeANaspirin2it]

Former Penn State WR Juwan Johnson has become a big part of the Oregon offense this year. He struggled with drops and underperformed at PSU. Kind of like Shorter although Johnson did do more than Shorter to this point.

The transfer portal is really changing the game. On the one hand, it's good for kids who are buried on a depth chart to be able to go somewhere they can get playing time, but on the other, there are too many kids who want to transfer if they don't have playing time just handed to them.

I'm rooting for Utah. Partly because i wouldn't want to face them in the Rose. It would feel like playing Kentucky last year. It was a ho-hum matchup for PSU and they played that way, but Kentucky dubbed it the biggest game in program history and they also played like it. i think it would be similar vs Utah. Also Utah is tough and well coached.

Oregon has more talent but they make a ton of mistakes and i'm not sure Cristobal is a great coach.

Plus, I want to see even more criticism of the playoff committee if they snub Utah. Although that would be bad for Penn State if they faced a snubbed Utah team in the Rose.

 

[Coach]

The hardest game to call is Utah vs. Oregon

I expect LSU to win. And Clemson. OSU was well.

 

[SteelerFan448]

Plus, I want to see even more criticism of the playoff committee if they snub Utah. Although that would be bad for Penn State if they faced a snubbed Utah team in the Rose.

I'm not sure how many people will actually think Utah is getting snubbed. I would much rather see Oklahoma with Lincoln Riley, Jalen Hurts, and CeeDee Lamb over Utah.

 

[tapeANaspirin2it]

I wonder if Georgia ever regrets keeping Fromm over Fields. Fromm isn’t that great, I think Fields is much better.

They should. Fromm is just pretty good. Fields is special. Bama ditched Jalen Hurts for Tua and Georgia should know better than anybody how that worked out.

It would be like the Ravens sticking with Flacco over Lamar Jackson. Sure Flacco won a bunch of games and Jackson is an unknown but I'd rather the roll the dice on the upside than just coast with the mediocrity of Flacco.

I would use that decision to negative recruit against Georgia. You're going to Georgia and that boring offense huh? They couldn't figure out how to use Justin Fields. We know how to use a special talent like you.

What might have been. Fields was actually committed to Penn State before his senior year in HS. They were the first team to scout him when he was just a 3 star. Fields has said that he de-committed because he didn't think OC Joe Moorhead would be there for his whole career. Turned out he was right as Moorhead left to be HC at Miss State.

 

[Vader]

As usually tape you're entire post is filled with SEC hate. You can't even talk about other games without mentioning how teams don't have a chance because of SEC bias. It's really old.

Fact is that even if Clemson loses they're in. OSU could lose and still be in. Of course you don't mention that. There is no way Georgia gets in after a loss IMHO. You'd probably like it to be true so you could cry some more about SEC bias.

Utah is getting hammered by Oregon. So that means OU has the inside track to the playoff. If they beat Baylor they're in. At least OU has a little offense even if their defense is crap.

 

[Sarge]

As usually tape you're entire post is filled with SEC hate. You can't even talk about other games without mentioning how teams don't have a chance because of SEC bias. It's really old.

Fact is that even if Clemson loses they're in. OSU could lose and still be in. Of course you don't mention that. There is no way Georgia gets in after a loss IMHO. You'd probably like it to be true so you could cry some more about SEC bias.

Utah is getting hammered by Oregon. So that means OU has the inside track to the playoff. If they beat Baylor they're in. At least OU has a little offense even if their defense is crap.

I didn’t even know that game was on tonight. Still buzzing about the Pens win I guess.

 

[Spike]

The Ducks took it pretty easy, but their cheerleaders were too bundled up for me to give them a rating. Ute's had more blondes in short skirts so it was close, but not close enough.

 

[tapeANaspirin2it]

it really is funny to hear SEC people claim the SEC doesn't get favorable treatment in the polls. It's like people who think CNN is balanced coverage. Or Patriot fans claiming they didn't cheat.

Utah losing changes things a lot. It now brings into play that either Clemson or Ohio State could possibly get in with a loss, but not both of them. One of then with just 1 loss would likely be left out if Georgia wins. They would shove Georgia and LSU in there along with likely the Big 12 winner and whoever looked better between Ohio State and Clemson in their hypothetical loss.

 

[tapeANaspirin2it]

Utah's defense was great all year. Oregon jumped on them early. They must have picked something out on tape that they could exploit. Utah seemed to adjust and stop them until they wore down late. Their offense was pretty bad all night.

Utah will fall pretty far bowl-wise. They went from possible playoff or ROse Bowl to maybe I think the Alamo Bowl.

Oregon is a lock for the Rose now

 

[Vader]

it really is funny to hear SEC people claim the SEC doesn't get favorable treatment in the polls. It's like people who think CNN is balanced coverage. Or Patriot fans claiming they didn't cheat.

Utah losing changes things a lot. It now brings into play that either Clemson or Ohio State could possibly get in with a loss, but not both of them. One of then with just 1 loss would likely be left out if Georgia wins. They would shove Georgia and LSU in there along with likely the Big 12 winner and whoever looked better between Ohio State and Clemson in their hypothetical loss.

Sorry that's just bullshit. It isn't going to happen but even if both OSU and Clemson lost both would be in. Only an anti-SEC conspiracy theorist would say otherwise. They aren't going to put in a 1 loss Big 12 winner over either of them.

 

[Sarge]

I think there is SEC bias, but I think it is mostly earned. Look, top to bottom, the SEC is the best conference in the country.

The bigger problem, to me, is the rest of the so called Power 5. The PAC 12 hasn’t produced a champion worthy of a NC bid in forever it seems. Same for the BIG 10. Ohio State always gets in the top four but does **** with it. Same with whoever wins the BIG 12, which is usually Oklahoma. Clemson always gets in from a ridiculously weak ACC, but they have proven capable of not only closing the deal, but beating the SEC’s best to do it. Aside from Clemson, who has challenged the SEC in the a Playoff? Pretty much nobody.

I don’t like the SEC getting two teams almost every year, but how many people could argue that a 1 loss Utah or 1 loss Oklahoma is better than a one loss Georgia this year? How many other conference runner ups could make the argument to be there ahead of a one loss SEC runner up? It’s hard to make that argument convincingly. The other conferences need to up their game and knock off some of these SEC teams. Until then, it is unlikely to change.

 

[Vader]

I think there is SEC bias, but I think it is mostly earned. Look, top to bottom, the SEC is the best conference in the country.

The bigger problem, to me, is the rest of the so called Power 5. The PAC 12 hasn’t produced a champion worthy of a NC bid in forever it seems. Same for the BIG 10. Ohio State always gets in the top four but does **** with it. Same with whoever wins the BIG 12, which is usually Oklahoma. Clemson always gets in from a ridiculously weak ACC, but they have proven capable of not only closing the deal, but beating the SEC’s best to do it. Aside from Clemson, who has challenged the SEC in the a Playoff? Pretty much nobody.

I don’t like the SEC getting two teams almost every year, but how many people could argue that a 1 loss Utah or 1 loss Oklahoma is better than a one loss Georgia this year? How many other conference runner ups could make the argument to be there ahead of a one loss SEC runner up? It’s hard to make that argument convincingly. The other conferences need to up their game and knock off some of these SEC teams. Until then, it is unlikely to change.

My issue is that the other conference don't have any other teams that win national championships. Since 2000 you have 4 SEC teams that have won. Bama, LSU, Auburn and Florida. There was a stretch from 2006 to 2012 that they won every single one. The ACC has 2 teams that have won. Clemson and Florida St. The big 10 has only one team, OSU that has won. The Pac 10 won one game with USC but split the national title with LSU in 2003. There hasn't been another Big 10 team to win the NC since Michigan split it with Nebraska in 1997. Nebraska wasn't in the big 10 at the time. To find the next NC big 10 team that wasn't split you have to go to 1986 to Penn St.

Fact is that since 2000 the SEC has won half (10) of the national championships. No other conference has more than 3 and that's the ACC.

 

[SteelerInLebanon]

My issue is that the other conference don't have any other teams that win national championships. Since 2000 you have 4 SEC teams that have won. Bama, LSU, Auburn and Florida. There was a stretch from 2006 to 2012 that they won every single one. The ACC has 2 teams that have won. Clemson and Florida St. The big 10 has only one team, OSU that has won. The Pac 10 won one game with USC but split the national title with LSU in 2003. There hasn't been another Big 10 team to win the NC since Michigan split it with Nebraska in 1997. Nebraska wasn't in the big 10 at the time. To find the next NC big 10 team that wasn't split you have to go to 1986 to Penn St.

Fact is that since 2000 the SEC has won half (10) of the national championships. No other conference has more than 3 and that's the ACC.

Is that actually a product of better football or a product of bias in rankings?

 

[Sarge]

Is that actually a product of better football or a product of bias in rankings?

It can be both. First, you have to get in before you can win. Bias rankings will get you there, but better football wins the title.

 

[SteelerFan448]

Everyone should quit crying about any bias. Great teams are great teams. We hear about Clemson's schedule every year, yet they've made the playoffs four times, have two national titles, and three championship appearances. Dislike the system all you want, but they've done a good job getting the best teams in there every year. I have nothing against expanding it to 8 or 16 teams because I love watching football, but it gets old hearing Big 10 fans cry about bias when they haven't had a team score a point in the playoffs since 2015.

 

[SteelerInLebanon]

It can be both. First, you have to get in before you can win. Bias rankings will get you there, but better football wins the title.

True but I think conference bias keeps out those who just might win. I think the only solution is an 8 team playoff with automatic conference berths and 3 at large.

 

[Sarge]

True but I think conference bias keeps out those who just might win. I think the only solution is an 8 team playoff with automatic conference berths and 3 at large.

I can agree with that to an extent, but I guess we’ll never know.

 

[Lunar]

Oklahoma up 7.