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Covid Vaccine

i see both your side and Tim's side of the argument.
yet in your above, WalMart greeters are not checking to see if you've had polio shots. Restaurants are not checking your TB status.

the vaccine is out there. that's known. everyone knows it. those who have gotten have told others to get vaccinated - if they choose to.
others are not getting vaccinated, for any litany of reasons.

if we force or "force" people to do so, then isnt that violating the very freedoms this country stands for?
conversely, if we have another shutdown (which will not happen since we have a Dim as POTUS now) then we'll just be turning back the clock, as people will be shut in and not exposed to the virus, thereby kicking herd immunity down the road - which is normal for government.
Because polio and TB have been largely eradicated.

Half the country is not fully vaccinated. If we just let them all get covid in the interest of herd immunity we're talking about 1.7 million more dead at a 1% death rate. Millions more hospitalized. You good with that?
 
Simple question: how many prior vaccines have been mRNA vaccines?
mRNA vaccines have been studied and made it through clinical trials for other illnesses, if you read the article you'll see that. Long term effects would likely be known from those trials. Here's another:


Isn’t the technology too new to be trusted? If mRNA vaccines really work and can be produced so quickly, then why haven’t any been used before?

Technically, mRNA vaccines are not new. They, along with other RNA therapeutics, have been in development for decades, and many mRNA vaccines were in phase 1, 2, and 3 trials before the COVID-19 vaccines were created. There simply has not been the level of urgency to produce them to combat a virus as we have seen in this pandemic. The arrival of SARS-CoV-2 highlighted the critical need for solutions, and the development of mRNA vaccines along with other oligonucleotide therapies became an urgent priority. (Read more about oligonucleotide therapeutics in the fight against COVID-19 here.)

The potential of mRNA vaccines was restricted initially because mRNA is unstable, delivery is difficult, and they often created an undesirably strong immune response (1, 5). mRNA by itself is easily detected by the immune system, and it needs to avoid detection and be delivered into the cell (4). Each vaccine requires determining what portions of mRNA will create the desired response and what formulations will create an effective immune response without creating too strong an immune reaction (1).

Once these, and a myriad of other problems were solved, pharmaceutical companies were not eager to invest in mRNA vaccines for infectious diseases because there are many other effective vaccine platforms in use.

Moderna is one exception, and they have focused on developing and improving mRNA vaccines for infectious diseases for a decade. They have completed two phase 1 studies for influenza strains that were found to be both safe and effective (6). Another phase 1 trial for a Zika virus vaccine is underway, as is a phase 2 dose-finding trial for a cytomegalovirus vaccine. Undoubtedly, this contributed to their ability to respond so quickly during this pandemic and allowed them to produce one of the first vaccines to receive emergency authorization. So, while it is true that we do not have long term data on these specific vaccines, we do have data on vaccines with similar platforms and delivery methods that show longer-term safety.
 
Because polio and TB have been largely eradicated.

Half the country is not fully vaccinated. If we just let them all get covid in the interest of herd immunity we're talking about 1.7 million more dead at a 1% death rate. Millions more hospitalized. You good with that?
The real death rate is not close to 1% as your number doesn't include the 4.6x higher projected cases than what is reported. you need to move a decimal point at least. It is most likely 0.3% not 1%. You like Trog are not accounting for natural immunity for the many unvaccinated who have already had covid. Sorry for comparing you to Trog I know that is a low blow.
 
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Because polio and TB have been largely eradicated.

Half the country is not fully vaccinated. If we just let them all get covid in the interest of herd immunity we're talking about 1.7 million more dead at a 1% death rate. Millions more hospitalized. You good with that?

That's not accurate math. You're assuming 100% of half the population will get COVID and 1% will die. If you use the known math and the CDC assumptions almost half of us have had COVID:
  • With a population of 331Million we have had 34,987,966 known cases (10.6% have gotten it so far)
  • That is a Case Fatality Rate (CFR) of 1.8% (624,833 deaths divided by 34,987,966 cases).
  • The true mortality rate, as the CDC does with the flu, would include the assumed cases + known cases related to deaths.
  • The assumed cases factor is 4.3x identified cases per the CDC. That is 150,448,253 assumed cases total (45% of the population).
That wildly changes the mortality rate. Now divide 624,833 deaths by TOTAL cases (150,448,253) and you get a truer mortality rate of 0.0042 or 0.42% (or a general survivability rate of 99.58%)

Half the population is 165.5 million and 0.0042 of that is another 695K deaths.

But you can't stop there. From the data I posted from physicians back in April, then it was assumed that half of the people who had gotten vaccinated had already had the virus, half had not. That's the consensus right the moment. 161M Americans have been fully vaccinated. 50% of those didn't have COVID (assumed or confirmed). That's 80.5M Americans you need to add to the 150.4M who have had COVID, which gives us a population of 230.9M Americans that "should" have immunity (natural or vaccinated or both).

331M Americans - 230.9M with some form of protection = 100.1M Americans with no natural or vaccinated immunity.

For simplicity sake, assume those protected don't die if they contract it again. I know there will be exceptions, but by and large assume that. Apply the 0.0042 mortality rate to the unvaccinated population you get 420,420 deaths.

Totally unacceptable....but consider....

The vast numbers that are vaccinated or have natural immunity should slow the total spread numbers. Fewer people die of COVID now than did then because we have better treatments. And though vaccinations have slowed, they continue....and people keep getting infected...so immunity numbers are still growing.

All of that would have to be factored into "how many we would expect to die" as well.

I don't know how much I'd lower the 420,420 deaths considering those factors, but I'd assume it would be lower by some substantial amount.

I know I'm nitpicking, but saying we would have 1.7M more deaths is just not even realistic.
 
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The real death rate is not close to 1% as your number doesn't include the 4.6x higher projected cases than what is reported. you need to move a decimal point at least. It is most likely 0.3% not 1%. You like Trog are not accounting for natural immunity for the many unvaccinated who have already had covid. Sorry for comparing you to Trog I know that is a low blow.

DO NOT EVER COMPARE OFTB TO FLOGGY AGAIN

Man, that may be the coldest **** I've ever read here LOL

(I know you were joking)
 
The real death rate is not close to 1% as your number doesn't include the 4.6x higher projected cases than what is reported. you need to move a decimal point at least. It is most likely 0.3% not 1%. You like Trog are not accounting for natural immunity for the many unvaccinated who have already had covid. Sorry for comparing you to Trog I know that is a low blow.
I'm just going by the numbers these guys are quoting. We'll never really know what the true numbers are. But like everyone else you guys are harping on death rates and ignoring hospitalization and long term effects of covid as if they are irrelevant.
 
How many preventable deaths are you guys good with?

Somewhat of a rhetorical question. How about this. We accept the flu burden without shutting down life. Forcing mask mandates. Lockdowns and restrictions. We trust Americans to get the flu shot. We don't go Karen all over people.

We have averaged 35,900 deaths annually over the past 10 years due to the flu (which includes the utter disappearance of the flu this year).

That's 2,991 deaths a month (despite the flu not killing people all year long) or just a little over 98 deaths a day.

Given this is a bit more deadly than the flu, given this will be endemic and never go away...I'd be ok with 100-125 deaths a day give or take.

We were at 179 deaths a day for COVID just 2 weeks ago. Yes cases are rising and we aren't quite there.

EDIT: we had 57 deaths on the 18th, and 142 deaths on the 17th. Those numbers may adjust.
 
mRNA vaccines have been studied and made it through clinical trials for other illnesses, if you read the article you'll see that. Long term effects would likely be known from those trials. Here's another:


Isn’t the technology too new to be trusted? If mRNA vaccines really work and can be produced so quickly, then why haven’t any been used before?

Technically, mRNA vaccines are not new. They, along with other RNA therapeutics, have been in development for decades, and many mRNA vaccines were in phase 1, 2, and 3 trials before the COVID-19 vaccines were created. There simply has not been the level of urgency to produce them to combat a virus as we have seen in this pandemic. The arrival of SARS-CoV-2 highlighted the critical need for solutions, and the development of mRNA vaccines along with other oligonucleotide therapies became an urgent priority. (Read more about oligonucleotide therapeutics in the fight against COVID-19 here.)

The potential of mRNA vaccines was restricted initially because mRNA is unstable, delivery is difficult, and they often created an undesirably strong immune response (1, 5). mRNA by itself is easily detected by the immune system, and it needs to avoid detection and be delivered into the cell (4). Each vaccine requires determining what portions of mRNA will create the desired response and what formulations will create an effective immune response without creating too strong an immune reaction (1).

Once these, and a myriad of other problems were solved, pharmaceutical companies were not eager to invest in mRNA vaccines for infectious diseases because there are many other effective vaccine platforms in use.

Moderna is one exception, and they have focused on developing and improving mRNA vaccines for infectious diseases for a decade. They have completed two phase 1 studies for influenza strains that were found to be both safe and effective (6). Another phase 1 trial for a Zika virus vaccine is underway, as is a phase 2 dose-finding trial for a cytomegalovirus vaccine. Undoubtedly, this contributed to their ability to respond so quickly during this pandemic and allowed them to produce one of the first vaccines to receive emergency authorization. So, while it is true that we do not have long term data on these specific vaccines, we do have data on vaccines with similar platforms and delivery methods that show longer-term safety.

Okay, I'll be more specific - how many mRNA vaccines have ever been approved for full use in the United States?

Direct from the CDC:

What You Need to Know​

  • mRNA vaccines are a new type of vaccine to protect against infectious diseases.
  • mRNA vaccines teach our cells how to make a protein—or even just a piece of a protein—that triggers an immune response inside our bodies.
  • The benefit of mRNA vaccines, like all vaccines, is those vaccinated gain protection without ever having to risk the serious consequences of getting sick with COVID-19.
  • COVID-19 vaccines are not interchangeable. If you received a Pfizer-BioNTech or Moderna COVID-19 vaccine, you should get the same product for your second shot.
  • Learn more about getting your vaccine.
Messenger RNA vaccines—also called mRNA vaccines—are some of the first COVID-19 vaccines authorized for use in the United States.

(and that's actually not correct - they've only been approved for EUA - they have not been approved for full use)

New Approach to Vaccines​

mRNA vaccines are a new type of vaccine to protect against infectious diseases. To trigger an immune response, many vaccines put a weakened or inactivated germ into our bodies. Not mRNA vaccines. Instead, they teach our cells how to make a protein—or even just a piece of a protein—that triggers an immune response inside our bodies. That immune response, which produces antibodies, is what protects us from getting infected if the real virus enters our bodies.


I don't care how long they've been "studied" for. And I understand they've been studied for everything from influenza to rabies. They've never been approved for full use before and that's what concerns me. And sorry, but I'm not buying the level of urgency has never been like this or that these particular spike proteins are all of a sudden a-okay. Sorry, going to just have to agree to disagree with you on this one. My personal opinion.
 
That's not accurate math. You're assuming 100% of half the population will get COVID and 1% will die. If you use the known math and the CDC assumptions almost half of us have had COVID:
  • With a population of 331Million we have had 34,987,966 known cases (10.6% have gotten it so far)
  • That is a Case Fatality Rate (CFR) of 1.8% (624,833 deaths divided by 34,987,966 cases).
  • The true mortality rate, as the CDC does with the flu, would include the assumed cases + known cases related to deaths.
  • The assumed cases factor is 4.3x identified cases per the CDC. That is 150,448,253 assumed cases total (45% of the population).
That wildly changes the mortality rate. Now divide 624,833 deaths by TOTAL cases (150,448,253) and you get a truer mortality rate of 0.0042 or 0.42% (or a general survivability rate of 99.58%)

Half the population is 165.5 million and 0.0042 of that is another 695K deaths.

But you can't stop there. From the data I posted from physicians back in April, then it was assumed that half of the people who had gotten vaccinated had already had the virus, half had not. That's the consensus right the moment. 161M Americans have been fully vaccinated. 50% of those didn't have COVID (assumed or confirmed). That's 80.5M Americans you need to add to the 150.4M who have had COVID, which gives us a population of 230.9M Americans that "should" have immunity (natural or vaccinated or both).

331M Americans - 230.9M with some form of protection = 100.1M Americans with no natural or vaccinated immunity.

For simplicity sake, assume those protected don't die if they contract it again. I know there will be exceptions, but by and large assume that. Apply the 0.0042 mortality rate to the unvaccinated population you get 420,420 deaths.

Totally unacceptable....but consider....

The vast numbers that are vaccinated or have natural immunity should slow the total spread numbers. Fewer people die of COVID now than did then because we have better treatments. And though vaccinations have slowed, they continue....and people keep getting infected...so immunity numbers are still growing.

All of that would have to be factored into "how many we would expect to die" as well.

I don't know how much I'd lower the 420,420 deaths considering those factors, but I'd assume it would be lower by some substantial amount.

I know I'm nitpicking, but saying we would have 1.7M more deaths is just not even realistic.
I said at a 1% death rate if we just let them all get covid. Without any mitigation it's likely many of them would eventually get it, as the population of those infected skews younger and younger the death rate would likely drop, that is unless some more virulent strain emerges which isn't out of the question. There are obviously a lot of variables. No one knows what the number would end up being. It would be a lot and a lot more hospitalizations and long term illness too which isn't something to just ignore.
 
How many preventable deaths are you guys good with?

Wow, I understand you may have vulnerable people in your family and you may be quite set in your ways in how you think about this vaccine, but really?
 
I said at a 1% death rate if we just let them all get covid. Without any mitigation it's likely many of them would eventually get it, as the population of those infected skews younger and younger the death rate would likely drop, that is unless some more virulent strain emerges which isn't out of the question. There are obviously a lot of variables. No one knows what the number would end up being. It would be a lot and a lot more hospitalizations and long term illness too which isn't something to just ignore.

No. I was just pointing out in my long prose form that we wouldn't come close to seeing 1.7M deaths. 150.4M Americans have had COVID. 624,833 died.
 
Not necessarily…

izzat the Dr. Scott Gottleib who performed a service for the country when he led the FDA?

See if you can guess which of the vaccine makers he is on the board of just after his "public service"?

Even you have a shot at getting this one, Floggy.
 
Okay, I'll be more specific - how many mRNA vaccines have ever been approved for full use in the United States?

Direct from the CDC:

What You Need to Know​

  • mRNA vaccines are a new type of vaccine to protect against infectious diseases.
  • mRNA vaccines teach our cells how to make a protein—or even just a piece of a protein—that triggers an immune response inside our bodies.
  • The benefit of mRNA vaccines, like all vaccines, is those vaccinated gain protection without ever having to risk the serious consequences of getting sick with COVID-19.
  • COVID-19 vaccines are not interchangeable. If you received a Pfizer-BioNTech or Moderna COVID-19 vaccine, you should get the same product for your second shot.
  • Learn more about getting your vaccine.
Messenger RNA vaccines—also called mRNA vaccines—are some of the first COVID-19 vaccines authorized for use in the United States.

(and that's actually not correct - they've only been approved for EUA - they have not been approved for full use)

New Approach to Vaccines​

mRNA vaccines are a new type of vaccine to protect against infectious diseases. To trigger an immune response, many vaccines put a weakened or inactivated germ into our bodies. Not mRNA vaccines. Instead, they teach our cells how to make a protein—or even just a piece of a protein—that triggers an immune response inside our bodies. That immune response, which produces antibodies, is what protects us from getting infected if the real virus enters our bodies.


I don't care how long they've been "studied" for. And I understand they've been studied for everything from influenza to rabies. They've never been approved for full use before and that's what concerns me. And sorry, but I'm not buying the level of urgency has never been like this or that these particular spike proteins are all of a sudden a-okay. Sorry, going to just have to agree to disagree with you on this one. My personal opinion.
There are reasons they haven't been approved for full use and most of it is because they aren't needed, either because there were cheaper and easier to manage options or because the illnesses just weren't all that contagious and died out on their own. The point is that this idea that we have no long term data on the safety of mRNA vaccines is not accurate.

So in a few months when this gets approved for full use you're good with them then. I'm relieved to know you'll finally be getting one. :)
 
No. I was just pointing out in my long prose form that we wouldn't come close to seeing 1.7M deaths. 150.4M Americans have had COVID. 624,833 died.
Which is a lot, no? If we could have prevented most of them it would be good, right?
 
Wow, I understand you may have vulnerable people in your family and you may be quite set in your ways in how you think about this vaccine, but really?
I don't have anyone vulnerable in my family actually. But what's the wow? Again, 99% of the people dying of this right now are unvaccinated. A couple hundred every single day. What don't you get about how terribly needless and tragic that is? You guys throw these stats around as if the lives associated with them don't matter.
 
Which is a lot, no? If we could have prevented most of them it would be good, right?

Yes, which I said above. It's a lot. And yes, if we can prevent them, we should (given we had a proven safe no-risk, method to do so). But those numbers, even when simplified as you requested, are NO WHERE near what the real death tolls would be as I pointed out in the longer message. We would NEVER see close to those numbers.

If we could magically stop everything now - like vaccinations - given our treatments are better - and let the rest of America get the virus, my GUESS is we'd see maybe 200-225K more deaths until 100% of Americans got it (beyond those who've had it + those who got vaccinated).

That's a wild guess.

Still too much I agree...but with each day, treatments get better, more get vaccinated, mankind becomes more resistant and life gets better.
 
It's answering the question of what the likelihood of long term side effects is. Obviously you are correct that no one can say that for sure (as they can't with any medical treatment until years down the line). But we are not devoid of evidence that long term side effects are unlikely, as the article explains. Meanwhile we do know there are people who have lingering effects from covid. Though we obviously don't know how long those will last either.
Thats precisely why the FDA requires tox, safety and efficacy data over years, not months/weeks.

Either the FDA is wrong to insist that new drugs have years of tests to ensure public safety, or they threw out their historic concerns for public safety because of......public safety??
 
So in a few months when this gets approved for full use you're good with them then. I'm relieved to know you'll finally be getting one. :)

Hopefully by then we will have a non mRNA vaccine from Novavax we can lean on.
 
Yes, which I said above. It's a lot. And yes, if we can prevent them, we should (given we had a proven safe no-risk, method to do so). But those numbers, even when simplified as you requested, are NO WHERE near what the real death tolls would be as I pointed out in the longer message. We would NEVER see close to those numbers.

If we could magically stop everything now - like vaccinations - given our treatments are better - and let the rest of America get the virus, my GUESS is we'd see maybe 200-225K more deaths until 100% of Americans got it (beyond those who've had it + those who got vaccinated).

That's a wild guess.

Still too much I agree...but with each day, treatments get better, more get vaccinated, mankind becomes more resistant and life gets better.
Why are you so confident in treatments but not in vaccines? Do you think drugs or other treatments can't have adverse effects in some people?
 
I don't have anyone vulnerable in my family actually. But what's the wow? Again, 99% of the people dying of this right now are unvaccinated. A couple hundred every single day. What don't you get about how terribly needless and tragic that is?

The wow is you actually saying this - "How many preventable deaths are you guys good with?" when we're dealing with a vaccine that hasn't even been approved. And that if we're skeptical and want way more time/study/understanding of it that we're somehow okay with people dying.

Enjoy your day.
 
Hopefully by then we will have a non mRNA vaccine from Novavax we can lean on.

If that happens, I'll be much more relieved and will definitely consider it. Until that time comes, not gonna do it.
 
mRNA vaccines have been studied and made it through clinical trials for other illnesses, if you read the article you'll see that. Long term effects would likely be known from those trials. Here's another:


Isn’t the technology too new to be trusted? If mRNA vaccines really work and can be produced so quickly, then why haven’t any been used before?

Technically, mRNA vaccines are not new. They, along with other RNA therapeutics, have been in development for decades, and many mRNA vaccines were in phase 1, 2, and 3 trials before the COVID-19 vaccines were created. There simply has not been the level of urgency to produce them to combat a virus as we have seen in this pandemic. The arrival of SARS-CoV-2 highlighted the critical need for solutions, and the development of mRNA vaccines along with other oligonucleotide therapies became an urgent priority. (Read more about oligonucleotide therapeutics in the fight against COVID-19 here.)

The potential of mRNA vaccines was restricted initially because mRNA is unstable, delivery is difficult, and they often created an undesirably strong immune response (1, 5). mRNA by itself is easily detected by the immune system, and it needs to avoid detection and be delivered into the cell (4). Each vaccine requires determining what portions of mRNA will create the desired response and what formulations will create an effective immune response without creating too strong an immune reaction (1).

Once these, and a myriad of other problems were solved, pharmaceutical companies were not eager to invest in mRNA vaccines for infectious diseases because there are many other effective vaccine platforms in use.

Moderna is one exception, and they have focused on developing and improving mRNA vaccines for infectious diseases for a decade. They have completed two phase 1 studies for influenza strains that were found to be both safe and effective (6). Another phase 1 trial for a Zika virus vaccine is underway, as is a phase 2 dose-finding trial for a cytomegalovirus vaccine. Undoubtedly, this contributed to their ability to respond so quickly during this pandemic and allowed them to produce one of the first vaccines to receive emergency authorization. So, while it is true that we do not have long term data on these specific vaccines, we do have data on vaccines with similar platforms and delivery methods that show longer-term safety.
Before drugs are approved by FDA, why do they require Phase III clinical results?
 
Why are you so confident in treatments but not in vaccines? Do you think drugs or other treatments can't have adverse effects in some people?

I wouldn't compare the two. I'm merely making the point that the medical community knows far better now how to treat COVID than they did a year ago. So death rates are lower now. Fewer people that get COVID die of it now than they did a year ago. That's a fact.

The treatments aren't using experimental drugs that I'm aware. They may be experimenting with other drugs that have been previously approved, like trying Hydroxy and Ivermectin, but those treatments are approved for use in human beings.
 
The wow is you actually saying this - "How many preventable deaths are you guys good with?" when we're dealing with a vaccine that hasn't even been approved. And that if we're skeptical and want way more time/study/understanding of it that we're somehow okay with people dying.

Enjoy your day.
You're dealing with vaccines that underwent all phases of clinical trials and has been safely used in millions more for months, and are fully on target to be approved. You're dealing with an illness that is hospitalizing thousands and killing over 200 daily, and those numbers are currently rising. As I stated before, be skeptical of the vaccines all you want, but if you don't want to seem like you don't care about people dying, maybe stop quoting over and over again how gloriously low the death rate is from covid.
 
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