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Day 2 Projection

Trading back ... sounds great. But value >>> quantity. Still some good edge players (BJ Olujare (LSU), Tommy Adebawore (Northwestern), Keion White (Georgia Tech), and Derick Hall (Auburn)), and CB's (JPJ, Julius Brents, Cam Smith, Tyrique Stevenson, and for a later pick Darius Rush).
 
Quality over quantity doesn’t often work in drafts… most picks bust anyhow so more is usually better, especially in deeper drafts like this. There is still a glut of guys that at one time or another were thought of as first round talents that are scattered all the way down to the fourth round…and at some positions lots of guys in the fifth and sixth that would be mid rounders most other years…
…
The move here is to tell the five teams who want a qb that the price is high, but well above the trade chart if their pick is lower than 40… make sure you have capital to move back up in the second with additional picks leftover… exactly what arizona did in the first round…
If no one bites, then take a player and be done with it… there isn’t a wrong answer here… there are enough great prospects left that they are getting a better than usual player at 49… probably at 80 too… but there are a metric ton of 4 th to sixth round guys it would be worth taking a flyer on if the price to get those picks was good…

We could stand pat and take a pretty solid chance on Branch or JPJr or we could move down and end up with several more players… which just ups the odds we get a good player…
 
madinsomniac said:
Quality over quantity doesn’t often work in drafts… most picks bust anyhow so more is usually better, especially in deeper drafts like this. ... We could stand pat and take a pretty solid chance on Branch or JPJr or we could move down and end up with several more players… which just ups the odds we get a good player…
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Not true. Why not trade 1st round and 2nd round every year to get a ton of 3rd, 4th and 5th round picks? Because the likelihood of getting a star falls a lot each round. A Forbes contributor ran studies and found that 49% of All-Pro selections (a better indicator than Pro-Bowl) were selected in the 1st round and 30% in the 2nd round. In other words, the talent drop-off is significant.
 
Steeltime said:
Trading back ... sounds great. But value >>> quantity. Still some good edge players (BJ Olujare (LSU), Tommy Adebawore (Northwestern), Keion White (Georgia Tech), and Derick Hall (Auburn)), and CB's (JPJ, Julius Brents, Cam Smith, Tyrique Stevenson, and for a later pick Darius Rush).
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well that sounds like there is still a lot of quality to be had

so why not drop back a few picks if the price is right
 
CoolieMan said:
The Texans went QB with pick #2

I only trade 32 if it is to slip back a few spots and pick up at least a couple of additional picks
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Me too! If we can swap seconds with another team and as you say a few spots, and pick up a couple picks, he’ll yes.
 
No way should the Steelers trade down from 32 and 49…especially if they have guys on the board rated first round talent. I take Branch. I’m good with the remaining picks where they are getting 4 picks in the top 80 selections.
 
Steeltime said:
Trading back ... sounds great. But value >>> quantity. Still some good edge players (BJ Olujare (LSU), Tommy Adebawore (Northwestern), Keion White (Georgia Tech), and Derick Hall (Auburn)), and CB's (JPJ, Julius Brents, Cam Smith, Tyrique Stevenson, and for a later pick Darius Rush).
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Edge is so stacked. Someone is going to find a gem in the low rounds there this year. AC3 was so ingrained as a low first round pick earlier in the process that they actually had a law rewritten to allow him to remain eligible for this draft… he had a bad workout at the combine and his draft value tanked so bad even though game metrics seem to show otherwise… he will now probably go in the 4th or 5th…

There are lots of options for us right now… even if we traded down… we could go corner at any point… Edge, thats deep… there are still a lot of Decent Ilbs. We could go IOL and trade someone, there are still some intriguing Dlinemen on the board. We could double dip at T especially in the fourth or fifth if we get those picks… we could ( inevitably) go wr or TE and bolster depth there..
Steeltime said:
Not true. Why not trade 1st round and 2nd round every year to get a ton of 3rd, 4th and 5th round picks? Because the likelihood of getting a star falls a lot each round. A Forbes contributor ran studies and found that 49% of All-Pro selections (a better indicator than Pro-Bowl) were selected in the 1st round and 30% in the 2nd round. In other words, the talent drop-off is significant.
Click to expand...
While I don’t dispute or disagree that stat at all, at least one of the modified trade value charts is based off of the likelihood of finding a star player… so if you are beating the value in the charts, you should be making out on those chances too…
 
Do you trade #32 for a 1st rd next yer and additional picks this year?

This is essentially a first rd pick. That is what it is worth. The interest on that pick is going to be additional picks this year, and one today.

Anything less and it is hello JPJ or BB.
 
madinsomniac said:
Edge is so stacked. Someone is going to find a gem in the low rounds there this year. AC3 was so ingrained as a low first round pick earlier in the process that they actually had a law rewritten to allow him to remain eligible for this draft… he had a bad workout at the combine and his draft value tanked so bad even though game metrics seem to show otherwise… he will now probably go in the 4th or 5th…
Click to expand...
To me ....Hall is the sleeper on the edge for us..
 
So anyone think we trade Dotson today or tomorrow? Or do we wait until camp ends to make sure everyone is healthy?
 
CoolieMan said:
well that sounds like there is still a lot of quality to be had

so why not drop back a few picks if the price is right
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I'd rather have a starting CB than a part time ILB and special teams project.

If the Steelers trade, it's that they do not value JPJ or Branch.
 
CoolieMan said:
The Texans went QB with pick #2

I only trade 32 if it is to slip back a few spots and pick up at least a couple of additional picks
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The pack of teams that are looking QB are all clustered in the next 7 picks. I wouldn't take less than a third but I don't think its more than that and if I like JP2 I just stay pat.
 
per ESPN, the best player available is Levis. Obviously an error since Hendon Hooker is available.
that said, you have to look at how far back you'd drop and have a handful of guys you're interested in making it to where you drop.

So, say a team wants a QB - Rams, New Orleans, Tennessee, Green Bay come to mind.

Rams would be ideal, since dropping back is only 4 spots. But, they're likely also aware no other team between us and them is taking a QB. They might get scared that they get leapfrogged, though.
 
CoolieMan said:
The Texans went QB with pick #2

I only trade 32 if it is to slip back a few spots and pick up at least a couple of additional picks
Click to expand...
Raiders would be my guess, as they should be in the market for a QB, but falling back another 6 spots you lose the chance to take someone like Branch or even Porter.
It would have to be a really sweet offer for me to trade out of 32.
 
No way I trade back unless we stay in front of our pick at 49 and we get no worse than a 3rd to do it. It's just not worth it to trade back and get 5th, 6th, 7th, or even 4th-round picks in exchange. I'd rather stick and take JPJ who they like, has a first-round grade, and is at our No. 1 area of need. He is huge value sitting there at 32 so someone would have to completely knock their socks off to take that pick. It is a no-brainer pick.

And, yes, I understand no pick is a guarantee. Multiple picks in the top 10 will turn out to be busts just like every year. But, JPJ was rated high on every draft chart. Neither he or Branch will fall to 49. JPJ has to be the pick since CB is really the only position we need an immediate starter unless you want to keep running with a bunch of CB2's out there for the next 2 years.
 
MeanJim said:
Hell, no! 32 is essentially a first round pick. You'd give it up for a couple 3rds? I wouldn't let it go for less than somebody's next year's #1.
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Uh, and what if that pick turned out to be #32?
 
If the Steelers do trade out of 32, it could be WR that a team trades up for. This WR class is not great.
Look at the teams drafting just after the Steelers. They can use a WR and maybe trade up a few slots to make sure they get their guy.

Arizona - word is they are trading Hopkins.
Detroit - Jameson Williams suspended. Maybe they go Levi’s?
Indy - they drafted the QB. Colts have a bunch of #2 WR. They need a deep threat.
Rams - can use a lot of things. Probably won’t trade up because they don’t have enough draft capital.
Seattle. Maybe they want to trade up for TE?

Raiders - with Jimmy G at QB, maybe they want Levi’s to develop. McDaniels is the guy who drafted Tebow. Can also use #2 WR and a TE because they lost both Waller and Moreau. In the Chiefs division, they desperately need DBs. If they have Porter or Branch graded high, they may trade up.

Carolina - they need weapons. They signed Theilen and DJ Chark but can use another target. Frank Reich used 2 TE in Philly. They have Hayden Hurst as a solid TE but he’s not a great threat. Luke Musgrave may interest them to pair with Hurst.

Saints. They need a pass rusher And they are starting to get scarce. Can also use a TE because they currently have a WR playing TE. Mayer or Washington could be of huge interest.

Tennessee. It’s Tannehill s last year and it appears they think Willis is a bust. Do the trade up for Levis? They also have a big need at WR.
 
Confluence said:
If the Steelers trade, it's that they do not value JPJ or Branch.
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That’s impossible to say without knowing what the trade is. At some point accepting a trade offer is an obvious decision.
 
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