George Will Figures Out The Presidential Race

[21STEELERS21]

http://www.deseretnews.com/article/...rough-math-that-makes-up-2016s-elections.html

There are only 6 states that will be competitive in 2016: Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Virginia, Nevada, Colorado

The only ticket on the Republican side that has a chance to win is Bush/Kasick, putting Ohio and Florida into play.

The likely Democratic ticket is Clinton/Warner making Virginia safe.

Under this scenario Republicans still lose because Florida will still go Democrat. Florida isn't the same as when Bush was governor.
It now has many more northeast retirees and gaining more by the day. Social security and 401K accounts will be the big concern
for these retirees and Hillary would be the steadier hand to protect both of those.

Now you don't have to think about 2016 anymore and can devote more time to your hobbies, since I figured this out for everyone.

 

[Ron Burgundy]

The Republican nominee must crack the ice that has frozen the electoral map. Cruz cannot do that by getting more votes from traditional Republican constituencies.

I think George Will is wrong about that because WE DID run moderates in 2008 and 2012 and still lost because the base was pissed off and didn't turn out.
Doesn't matter though because Hildebeast is going to win anyway. The same people who turned out to vote for FBP because He was the FBP will turn out to vote for FWP because she will be the FWP. Nothing else matters.
I'd pack up and move to Italy but they're in worse shape than we are.

 

[21STEELERS21]

Running a more conservative candidate only increases the vote in Red States where the Republican would win anyway, it doesn't help
in winning blue or toss up states. Romney was governor of Massachuesetts and lost by more than 20% to Obama.

It's a fantasy of the far left and right that a lot of the country agrees with their viewpoint. 70% of the country leans moderate.

 

[ark steel]

Running a more conservative candidate only increases the vote in Red States where the Republican would win anyway, it doesn't help
in winning blue or toss up states.

Liberals keep telling us that as if we are expected to believe Liberals will tell conservatives what it takes for a conservative to win.

I disagree with your 'leans moderate', at least if you are talking about fiscally rather than socially.

 

[Vis]

Liberals keep telling us that as if we are expected to believe Liberals will tell conservatives what it takes for a conservative to win.

I disagree with your 'leans moderate', at least if you are talking about fiscally rather than socially.

I think you should have a Cruz/Pence ticket and try your theory out.

 

[Vis]

“If the 2016 Republican nominee wins the same percentage of the white vote that Mitt Romney won in 2012 — 59 percent — then he or she will need to win 30 percent of the non-white vote to be elected. That is far greater than the 17 percent of the non-white vote that Romney achieved in 2012, or the 19 percent John McCain won in 2008, and better even than the 26 percent of the non-white vote that George W. Bush won his 2004 reelection campaign.”

“On the other hand, if the 2016 Republican nominee wins no more of the non-white vote than Romney’s 17 percent, he or she will need to win 65 percent of the white vote to win. That is a level of white vote achieved by only one Republican nominee in the past forty years: Ronald Reagan in his 49-state landslide reelection sweep in 1984, when he won 66 percent of the white vote… Republicans can complain about these trends, wring their hands over them, and get heartburn as a result. What they can’t do is change them.”

http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B0...as2&tag=youwonnowwhat&linkId=QLOKMNYPDCX5C2EH

 

[Steeltime]

“If the 2016 Republican nominee wins the same percentage of the white vote that Mitt Romney won in 2012 — 59 percent — then he or she will need to win 30 percent of the non-white vote to be elected. That is far greater than the 17 percent of the non-white vote that Romney achieved in 2012, or the 19 percent John McCain won in 2008, and better even than the 26 percent of the non-white vote that George W. Bush won his 2004 reelection campaign.”

“On the other hand, if the 2016 Republican nominee wins no more of the non-white vote than Romney’s 17 percent, he or she will need to win 65 percent of the white vote to win. That is a level of white vote achieved by only one Republican nominee in the past forty years: Ronald Reagan in his 49-state landslide reelection sweep in 1984, when he won 66 percent of the white vote… Republicans can complain about these trends, wring their hands over them, and get heartburn as a result. What they can’t do is change them.”

http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B0...as2&tag=youwonnowwhat&linkId=QLOKMNYPDCX5C2EH

The data you cite are true.

What puzzles me - and what I keep asking - is why the substantial number of non-whites left their homelands to come to the United States, to get away from the poverty, and corruption, and disease, and lack of opportunity in their native countries, and to enjoy the manifest opportunities afforded citizens in the United States ...

Only then to turn around and try to make the United States more like their homelands.

 

[ark steel]

I think you should have a Cruz/Pence ticket and try your theory out.

Can you give me a reason that your side would be giving advice to the other side on how to win? Of course, they won't.

 

[Vis]

Can you give me a reason that your side would be giving advice to the other side on how to win? Of course, they won't.

No we wouldn't. That's why I like your idea of going with a "true conservative"

 

[Ron Burgundy]

I think you should have a Cruz/Pence ticket and try your theory out.

I'd rather have Scott Walker on the ticket so we have someone who has actually destroyed labor unions. Also I love his smartass answers to the Liberal media.

 

[SteelerInLebanon]

A true fiscal conservative but a social moderate is what I believe most of the country truly wants. Paul would be great if I did not cringe at his foreign policy. I am sick to death about hearing debates over social issues. Give the LGBT crowd their equal rights (not special rights) then tell them to shut the hell up.

 

[Steelr4evr]

Yes, no kidding. Go suck cunts until your face is like a glazed donut.. marry em and divorce and fist **** them too ,..makes for great tv...kill your ******* babies and harvest the cells for makeup for your torn up ******* for all i care.Hell lets just extend the abortion laws to oh 2-3 years old while you're at it.what the **** ever gets you to your happy place. Can we just please get these commie dick sucking pigs out from running our country? Get them out of health care too. Get them out of your back pocket picking it.In fact get them out of most things. Get limits on terms for all. Supreme court included.

 

[Vis]

Yes, no kidding. Go suck cunts until your face is like a glazed donut.. marry em and divorce and fist **** them too ,..makes for great tv...kill your ******* babies and harvest the cells for makeup for your torn up ******* for all i care.Hell lets just extend the abortion laws to oh 2-3 years old while you're at it.what the **** ever gets you to your happy place. Can we just please get these commie dick sucking pigs out from running our country? Get them out of health care too. Get them out of your back pocket picking it.In fact get them out of most things. Get limits on terms for all. Supreme court included.

This **** is why Hillary will win. There are more people who think all the GOP thinks like this and would be embarrassed to have such backward ideas in the White House. Even Paul has left his libertarian roots for social conservative bigotry. So the GOP will still win the backwaters and HC will get over 300 electoral votes.

 

[Rod Farva]

Bottom line, the leech class has taken, by hook and by crook, the country. R's can run who they choose and they will lose. The majority is now made up of the great unwashed masses who have abdicated any thought of what's good for the country in favor of what they can get from the country. And so ends this greatest (and some would say very successful) of social experiments known as the United States of America.

 

[Stewey]

This **** is why Hillary will win. There are more people who think all the GOP thinks like this and would be embarrassed to have such backward ideas in the White House. Even Paul has left his libertarian roots for social conservative bigotry. So the GOP will still win the backwaters and HC will get over 300 electoral votes.

So explain Pauls social conservative bigotry.

 

[Vis]

So explain Pauls social conservative bigotry.

A libertarian would have no problem with marriage equality, in fact he would say govenrnent shouldn't license any marriage - let the the people do what they want freely. Then the Catholics could decide only to marry people of opposite sexes and the Presbyterians can marry people of the same sex as they now do. But Paul is against that at least in the latest comments. He may have been truer to libertarianism in the past before he started campaigning for the nomination.

 

[Ron Burgundy]

Bottom line, the leech class has taken, by hook and by crook, the country. R's can run who they choose and they will lose. The majority is now made up of the great unwashed masses who have abdicated any thought of what's good for the country in favor of what they can get from the country. And so ends this greatest (and some would say very successful) of social experiments known as the United States of America.

If the Democrats can flip Texas to blue then the Republicans will never win the White House again. This is one reason why Bomma wants to get as many immigrants into the country as He can.

 

[Vis]

If the Democrats can flip Texas to blue then the Republicans will never win the White House again. This is one reason why Bomma wants to get as many immigrants into the country as He can.

immigrants can't vote. What will happen is the GOP will shift. Our system is always a 2 party system but those parties change all the time whether the names change or not. Remember, Lincoln was a Whig.

 

[Ron Burgundy]

immigrants can't vote.

Oh, I bet they do, both before and after they become citizens. They will end up voting 90% Democrat out of appreciation just like the blacks do because Johnson signed the Civil Rights Act.

 

[Spike]

I'm voting for Hillary and you can't stop me

 

[oneforthebus]

Bottom line, the leech class has taken, by hook and by crook, the country. R's can run who they choose and they will lose. The majority is now made up of the great unwashed masses who have abdicated any thought of what's good for the country in favor of what they can get from the country. And so ends this greatest (and some would say very successful) of social experiments known as the United States of America.

Yep, sadly this is where I've arrived as well. We now have a majority that hates wealth and success and believes they are entitled to everything that other people have had to earn and build over decades.

I've lost hope and even interest in politics, I don't think we can affect them or change them, my focus now is just to set my children up as best we can for the coming shitstorm.

 

[Coach]

http://www.deseretnews.com/article/...rough-math-that-makes-up-2016s-elections.html

There are only 6 states that will be competitive in 2016: Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Virginia, Nevada, Colorado

The only ticket on the Republican side that has a chance to win is Bush/Kasick, putting Ohio and Florida into play.

The likely Democratic ticket is Clinton/Warner making Virginia safe.

Under this scenario Republicans still lose because Florida will still go Democrat. Florida isn't the same as when Bush was governor.
It now has many more northeast retirees and gaining more by the day. Social security and 401K accounts will be the big concern
for these retirees and Hillary would be the steadier hand to protect both of those.

Now you don't have to think about 2016 anymore and can devote more time to your hobbies, since I figured this out for everyone.

I agree in a general sense, but also think some blue states have elected Republican governors. Take Illinois for example. So more states are in play.

I do not think the VP pick can swing a state. A VP is more likely to sink a candidate than help him. The best VP picks can say what the presidential candidate can not afford to say do to his voting record or in-experience. Chenney was perfect and he came from very small red state. I also prefer the VP to be a governor as they have more favorable ratings.

 

[Coach]

“If the 2016 Republican nominee wins the same percentage of the white vote that Mitt Romney won in 2012 — 59 percent — then he or she will need to win 30 percent of the non-white vote to be elected. That is far greater than the 17 percent of the non-white vote that Romney achieved in 2012, or the 19 percent John McCain won in 2008, and better even than the 26 percent of the non-white vote that George W. Bush won his 2004 reelection campaign.”

“On the other hand, if the 2016 Republican nominee wins no more of the non-white vote than Romney’s 17 percent, he or she will need to win 65 percent of the white vote to win. That is a level of white vote achieved by only one Republican nominee in the past forty years: Ronald Reagan in his 49-state landslide reelection sweep in 1984, when he won 66 percent of the white vote… Republicans can complain about these trends, wring their hands over them, and get heartburn as a result. What they can’t do is change them.”

http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B0...as2&tag=youwonnowwhat&linkId=QLOKMNYPDCX5C2EH

So you're really saying that the 26% minority vote that George Bush won is the key. I agree, and think JEB Bush who speaks fluent spanish, has a Latino wife, and is moderate on immigration can do even better than his brother did with minorities.

 

[Steelr4evr]

This **** is why Hillary will win. There are more people who think all the GOP thinks like this and would be embarrassed to have such backward ideas in the White House. Even Paul has left his libertarian roots for social conservative bigotry. So the GOP will still win the backwaters and HC will get over 300 electoral votes.

dude you're entire party platform is just as i stated. It's scum. But i'm saying let's leave you people have your ****** bs and get to what counts most. You guys run on getting the ignorant dumb **** voter who would joyously vote for his own death as long as someone else was footing the bill.

 

[Troglodyte]

This **** is why Hillary will win. There are more people who think all the GOP thinks like this and would be embarrassed to have such backward ideas in the White House.

You're probably right.

I think republicans are generally more informed, but there are too many loudmouths that perpetuate the negative GOP stereotype of being greedy, mean-spirited, judge mental, bible thumpers.