If Hillary does not get a convention bounce

[Coach]

Trump's lead is widening during the Democratic convention. Fear not, Hillary is a pretty dull speaker. If Trump remains in the lead after the Democratic convention ends, it's a good sign he'll win!

I sincerely hope Trump has commercial replaying the FBI director's statements that Hillary lied during the email scandal on many issues, and picks commercials for Bernie Supporters in battleground states showing what the DNC is all about.

DNC = Anti-Semitic, gay slurs, slurs against women, rigged politics, big money and political favors, etc...


CNN/ORC 7/22 - 7/24 882 RV 3.5 48 45 Trump +3


CBS News 7/22 - 7/24 1118 RV 4.0 44 43 Trump +1

LA Times/USC 7/20 - 7/26 2112 LV -- 47 40 Trump +7

Economist/YouGov 7/23 - 7/24 1057 RV 4.5 42 47 Clinton +5

NBC News/SM 7/18 - 7/24 12931 RV 1.2 45 46 Clinton +1

Gravis 7/21 - 7/22 3462 RV 1.7 51 49 Trump +2

Rasmussen Reports 7/18 - 7/19 1000 LV 3.0 43 42 Trump +1


http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...s/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html

 

[ark steel]

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/

Hillary leads in all battleground states, within the margin of error mostly. However, this is AFTER Trump's convention bounce and before Hillary gets one.....AND after the wikileaks...

 

[Spike]

Indiana General Election:

Trump 50% (+14)
Clinton 36%

https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/758197078363344896

 

[Spike]

DNC = Marxists = Useful Idiots

 

[Coach]

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/

Hillary leads in all battleground states, within the margin of error mostly. However, this is AFTER Trump's convention bounce and before Hillary gets one.....AND after the wikileaks...

Almost correct. Trump is up in Florida. It's clear Clinton's lead is evaporating. The DNC scandal will diminish the enthusiasm to vote for Clinton.

With Trump, I believe his supporters are more likely to come out and vote. I also believe he's more likely to get people who seldom vote. As such his the polls are understanding his support a little

If Trump wins Florida and Ohio, that's 47 electoral votes. A big if, but that makes the race very even.

 

[ark steel]

just for the record, I am not ALMOST correct. Very seldom and I not, completely, correct.

Trump is up 0.3 in FL. AFTER his bounce, BEFORE hers and AFTER the wikileaks stuff. 0.3. think that through and the things that I mentioned and he is still up 0.3.

I think you are underestimating Trump's attraction to people who don't normally vote. The Big O had that. Trump doesn't have it. I don't think, at all, but certainly not to the extent The Big O did. Trumps biggest asset is that Hillary, probably, has less of it than he does. I think very few people are actually excited about voting for Hillary.

I think you are also underestimating the number of people, like me, that aren't intending to vote for Trump and will either not show up or vote third party. While past recent elections haven't had stellar candidates, I found the GOP candidate somewhat palatable (McCain, barely). Neither of these candidates should be palatable to anyone, IMO.

 

[Spike]

Huge LA Times Poll: Trump Takes 7-Point Lead

A new national poll released Wednesday shows Donald Trump leading Hillary Clinton by 7 points.

Donald Trump: 47 percent Hillary Clinton 40 percent

The poll surveyed 3,000 Americans. by the Los Angeles Times and the USC Dornsife Center.

http://www.newsmax.com/Politics/trump-clinton-poll-los-angeles-times/2016/07/27/id/740785/

 

[Superman]

I know a **** ton of times ark's been incorrect. mainly on personal acquaintance and life decisions, but ... whatever....

 

[21STEELERS21]

I'm pretty sure Hillary will not get a convention boucne?

 

[madinsomniac]

Again, for the billionth time.. Hillary and the dems have been freaking about the poll numbers for weeks now.. The media has done everything it can to bias them in her direction, and tgey still are slipping badly... Thats not even taking into account the typical apathy in a election year after the party has the presidency for eight years... Frankly id be amazed if trump doesn't win the popular vote by double digits ...now its all about the swing states

 

[ark steel]

Again, for the billionth time.. Hillary and the dems have been freaking about the poll numbers for weeks now.. The media has done everything it can to bias them in her direction, and tgey still are slipping badly... Thats not even taking into account the typical apathy in a election year after the party has the presidency for eight years... Frankly id be amazed if trump doesn't win the popular vote by double digits ...now its all about the swing states

I forgot to account for the media's love fest. And Trump STILL isn't winning the battleground states?

 

[TDX27]

Hillary is one of the worst speakers on the political scene. She has absolutely no charisma. And, she sounds like finger nails on a chalk board.

 

[TDX27]

I forgot to account for the media's love fest. And Trump STILL isn't winning the battleground states?

Can only assume you mean the love fest for Hilldog because she has been spending tens of millions for weeks against Trump and it has had no effect. He is just getting started.

 

[ark steel]

Can only assume you mean the love fest for Hilldog because she has been spending tens of millions for weeks against Trump and it has had no effect. He is just getting started.

I mean the media bias.

 

[deljzc]

It's not up on the website yet, but NBC reported last night that Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight.com now has Trump as a 53% likely to win the November election.

Remember a month ago (or something like that) someone (Tibs???) posted it was 22%.

The arrow is going the right direction and we haven't even started commercials against Clinton (easy pickings) or debates yet.

I always thought Clinton was going to win but maybe Trump has a real shot. She's just so ******* awful as a candidate.

 

[Superman]

but, how do we know the polling data is being determined without a bias?

 

[21STEELERS21]

Polls are really only for amusement until after first debate.

 

[madinsomniac]

I forgot to account for the media's love fest. And Trump STILL isn't winning the battleground states?

All the swing states are within the margin of error... And trump hasnt even spent ten million on the general election yet... He has barely run any commercials anywhere.. Hillary was at 57 million two weeks ago... At that rate she is well over 100 mil now... And she is dropping.. As soon as the real attack ads start she is done... As a registered independant i get spam from both sides trying to get my perspective on potential commercials.. The hillary ones are going to be bad, especially the ones that have her contradicting all of her views in her own words

 

[steel shinin]

It's not up on the website yet, but NBC reported last night that Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight.com now has Trump as a 53% likely to win the November election.

Remember a month ago (or something like that) someone (Tibs???) posted it was 22%.

The arrow is going the right direction and we haven't even started commercials against Clinton (easy pickings) or debates yet.

I always thought Clinton was going to win but maybe Trump has a real shot. She's just so ******* awful as a candidate.

You are completely correct. If she was running against anyone but Trump she'd lose. I have no doubt about that. Trump will eventually sink his own ship as the months go on. He just can't help himself. He's such a narcissist. The problem is that he's so hated by the party that no one is going to throw him any kind of support when he finally does. You can't have a presidential candidate openly calling for a foreign enemy to infiltrate secured US servers. That's beyond ok. It's espionage. It's widely known how connected Trump is with Russia and that's going to be a huge problem for him going forward. Just wait. This election is a disgrace all around.

 

[Spike]

It's not up on the website yet, but NBC reported last night that Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight.com now has Trump as a 53% likely to win the November election..

Make that 57%


FiveThirtyEight election forecast shows Trump ahead

Republican nominee Donald Trump has a 15 percentage point-greater chance of beating Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton if the election were held today

according to FiveThirtyEight.....updated with fresh surveys on Monday, shows Trump's current likelihood of winning at 57.5 percent, compared with Clinton’s 42.5 percent.

In the 11 battleground states:

Colorado, Virginia and Michigan would go to Clinton

Florida, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Iowa would go to Trump.

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/07/fivethirtyeight-trump-winning-226114

 

[deljzc]

You are completely correct. If she was running against anyone but Trump she'd lose. I have no doubt about that. Trump will eventually sink his own ship as the months go on. He just can't help himself. He's such a narcissist. The problem is that he's so hated by the party that no one is going to throw him any kind of support when he finally does. You can't have a presidential candidate openly calling for a foreign enemy to infiltrate secured US servers. That's beyond ok. It's espionage. It's widely known how connected Trump is with Russia and that's going to be a huge problem for him going forward. Just wait. This election is a disgrace all around.

People have been saying Trump will sink his own ship and lack of support from the RNC would matter for over a year now.

Hasn't made a ******* difference with the VOTERS!!!

Last I checked, the people pulling the levers still ******* matter.

 

[Steeltime]

You can't have a presidential candidate openly calling for a foreign enemy to infiltrate secured US servers. That's beyond ok. It's espionage.

Lesson #1 about an allegation: At least make sure it is possible to be true.

Shinin, how the @#$% would Trump be calling for anybody to "infiltrate" Clinton's server? She deleted the e-mails and scrubbed the server. The allegation that he is "calling for Russia to hack Clinton's server" is just ... well, dumb.

 

[steel shinin]

Lesson #1 about an allegation: At least make sure it is possible to be true.

Shinin, how the @#$% would Trump be calling for anybody to "infiltrate" Clinton's server? She deleted the e-mails and scrubbed the server. The allegation that he is "calling for Russia to hack Clinton's server" is just ... well, dumb.

See that's the thing. You think he's out here making jokes and trying to play the media. I think there's more to it than that. For a presidential candidate to actually say something like this out loud is ****** ridiculous no matter what.

 

[steel shinin]

People have been saying Trump will sink his own ship and lack of support from the RNC would matter for over a year now.

Hasn't made a ******* difference with the VOTERS!!!

Last I checked, the people pulling the levers still ******* matter.

Oh I complete agree with you on that. I should have been clear. I'm not talking about the primary voters that nominated him. I'm referring to the whole electorate. If Trump keeps this up in front of the entire country and wins, then I have greatly underestimated the sanity of the entire country at that point. You can't win an election with just your base anymore. I don't see too many swing voters voting for Trump but I guess we'll see.

 

[Ron Burgundy]

Lesson #1 about an allegation: At least make sure it is possible to be true.

Shinin, how the @#$% would Trump be calling for anybody to "infiltrate" Clinton's server? She deleted the e-mails and scrubbed the server. The allegation that he is "calling for Russia to hack Clinton's server" is just ... well, dumb.

The FBI Director allowed that it could have happened although folks at that level don't usually leave traces and it is extremely likely that they hacked other people that Hildebeast sent emails to.