"Najee Harris ain't it". NAJEE 3.0 It's time to go, yo....

[NorthernBlitz]

Do you think Harris got top $$$$?

I think he signed for a reasonable amount. When we declined the option, I was in favor of giving him a contract that I think is better than the one he ended up getting.

I never wanted to give him the option because of the guaranteed money and predicted we wouldn't. But I didn't think it would be a huge mistake if we did.

At the time, we only gave elite guys (Ben, Watt, Minkah) guarantees 2 years out. And with the "new" option rules that made them guaranteed, we've only optioned guys who've made 1st team all pro (Watt and Minkah). My guess is that we would also option a guy who genuinely made a probowl (not an injury replacement). Aside: I don't think we'll option Jones after this year either unless he makes the probowl.

Before the Stevenson contract was signed, I would have been OK with a 2 year extension at around the same value as the option. Provided the structure was good enough that it wasn't painful to walk away from. But the Stevenson contract (which looks like a big mistake on their part) made it so there was no way that Najee would take that deal.

In the end, the deal he signed was worse deal than that. Only 1 year. $5.25MM includes base and SB. With $4MM of incentives (which we have really only done for Mitch?).

I haven't seen anywhere where they provide any information on those incentives.

But both OTC and Spotrac have his cap number this year at $5.25MM. That might just be because the incentives are unknown.

But if they are known, that means that the entire $4MM is "unlikely to be earned". That means things he didn't do last year (snap count, attempts, rushing yards, receiving yards, playoff wins, TDs, etc).

If the incentives were things he did in the previous season, they'd be "likely to be earned". And that would mean that they would hit the cap this year.

Who knows how those things are distributed, but my guess is that he will end up making somewhere around the option value (which was ~$7MM). We'll see.

 

[bigben]

I'm much more of a reader than poster and have gotten a great deal of value from @warriors42 not only on this board but waaaay back to the Trib board.
I'm not sure why bigben wants to denigrate his contributions.

I don't care if he's been here 20 years, just means he's old. Still doesn't have a pair to bet on a carry vs carry. Oh well

 

[bigben]

he wants a bet that if our new starting RB carries the ball 125 times and gains 4.0 per carry he wins. he does not understand how football actually works. Najee touched the ball a combined 381 times in his ROOKIE year and averaged 3.9 yards a carry, he doesn't seem to understand what happens to your endurance especially in your rookie year when you are pounded on that many plays.

This entire thread was about Najee's 3.9 ypc average now he has some freaking stupid stat he wants to bet on. I put what I was willing to bet on out there he can take it or leave it I don't much care, and if he had actually read my entire post I even gave him a way to save face and possibly win, but he has shown his true colors so whatever I'll bow out and he can thump his chest and claim victory.

Maybe he will learn from this a be a more humble poster but I doubt it.

I am not going to bet on any RB getting more than 381 touches. Not gonna happen.
Only a Chicken Sh*t coward would come up with a volume bet like that to try to save face. No RB in the league has had 381 touches in the past 2 seasons.

 

[NorthernBlitz]

he wants a bet that if our new starting RB carries the ball 125 times and gains 4.0 per carry he wins. he does not understand how football actually works. Najee touched the ball a combined 381 times in his ROOKIE year and averaged 3.9 yards a carry, he doesn't seem to understand what happens to your endurance especially in your rookie year when you are pounded on that many plays.

This entire thread was about Najee's 3.9 ypc average now he has some freaking stupid stat he wants to bet on. I put what I was willing to bet on out there he can take it or leave it I don't much care, and if he had actually read my entire post I even gave him a way to save face and possibly win, but he has shown his true colors so whatever I'll bow out and he can thump his chest and claim victory.

Maybe he will learn from this a be a more humble poster but I doubt it.

I don't think the idea that his YPC was low because he got so many carries checks out. We can look at how other people did with 300+ carries. And we can compare Najee at 307 carries to 272, 255, and 263 carries (his YPC is remarkably consistent).

In his rookie year (2021), Najee had 307 rushing attempts with a YPC of 3.9.

Here are the guys who had > 300 attempts between now and then. Along with their ypc.

• 2024: Barkley 5.8. Henry 5.9. Williams 4.1. Robinson 4.8. Taylor 4.7. Jacobs 4.4.
• 2023: No one over 300 carries
• 2022: Henry 4.4. Jacobs 4.9. Chubb 5.1
• 2021: Taylor 5.5. Harris 3.9.

Also note that Najee has essentially the same YPC every year (he's remarkably consistent). His number of carries has ranged from 255 - 307. His YPC was slightly higher when he had 52 fewer carries, but the difference (4.1) isn't really appreciable (still lower than everyone on the list above except Williams who he tied with).

YPC isn't about the number of carries except in cases where a guy gets very few carries with a huge run. YPC is about "do you get big runs when your sample size is big enough". In Najee's case, the answer is no (zero 38+ yard runs in 1097 carries).

 

[BLITZ]

I am not going to bet on any RB getting more than 381 touches. Not gonna happen.
Only a Chicken Sh*t coward would come up with a volume bet like that to try to save face. No RB in the league has had 381 touches in the past 2 seasons.

He offered you a fair bet. You didn't accept.
Once again what exact bet do you want?

 

[warriors42]

He offered you a fair bet. You didn't accept.
Once again what exact bet do you want?

It's alright brother just let it go. I offered him a carry for carry bet he just didn't like it. like I said this whole thread was about his 3.9 average. so I took the only 3.9 year and based it off that. carry for carry..

one thing about being here so long is I have learned to not let people like little ben get under my skin. he can twist **** any way he wants to if it makes him feel better.

There are very few people here that their opinion matters to me he isn't one.

 

[BLITZ]

It's alright brother just let it go. I offered him a carry for carry bet he just didn't like it. like I said this whole thread was about his 3.9 average. so I took the only 3.9 year and based it off that. carry for carry..

one thing about being here so long is I have learned to not let people like little ben get under my skin. he can twist **** any way he wants to if it makes him feel better.

There are very few people here that their opinion matters to me he isn't one.

I get it. Have been here forever. Have seen many gentlebens come and go.

 

[stillwright]

I think he signed for a reasonable amount. When we declined the option, I was in favor of giving him a contract that I think is better than the one he ended up getting.

I never wanted to give him the option because of the guaranteed money and predicted we wouldn't. But I didn't think it would be a huge mistake if we did.

At the time, we only gave elite guys (Ben, Watt, Minkah) guarantees 2 years out. And with the "new" option rules that made them guaranteed, we've only optioned guys who've made 1st team all pro (Watt and Minkah). My guess is that we would also option a guy who genuinely made a probowl (not an injury replacement). Aside: I don't think we'll option Jones after this year either unless he makes the probowl.

Before the Stevenson contract was signed, I would have been OK with a 2 year extension at around the same value as the option. Provided the structure was good enough that it wasn't painful to walk away from. But the Stevenson contract (which looks like a big mistake on their part) made it so there was no way that Najee would take that deal.

In the end, the deal he signed was worse deal than that. Only 1 year. $5.25MM includes base and SB. With $4MM of incentives (which we have really only done for Mitch?).

I haven't seen anywhere where they provide any information on those incentives.

But both OTC and Spotrac have his cap number this year at $5.25MM. That might just be because the incentives are unknown.

But if they are known, that means that the entire $4MM is "unlikely to be earned". That means things he didn't do last year (snap count, attempts, rushing yards, receiving yards, playoff wins, TDs, etc).

If the incentives were things he did in the previous season, they'd be "likely to be earned". And that would mean that they would hit the cap this year.

Who knows how those things are distributed, but my guess is that he will end up making somewhere around the option value (which was ~$7MM). We'll see.

His 5th year option was for something like $6.7 mill. Not bad for a guy that never missed a game(playing hurt at times). Had 4 straight 1000 yard seasons......all while playing in a horrible schematicly schemed offense.