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I don't need training camp, preseason or anything else to know much about the 2021 Steelers. If I have learned anything over the past 17 seasons of REALLY paying attention to the NFL and Steelers inner workings, it's that overthinking is actually the worse thing to do.
If I would describe the Steelers as a franchise with one word, it is SIMPLE. They look at problems in simple ways and they attempt to solve them with even simpler answers.
The story of 2019 into 2020 was simple: hope the defense continued to play at a high level and generate turnovers while the return of Ben Roethlisberger gave a patchwork offense enough of a shot-in-the-arm to score enough points to win. For 11 weeks, despite some pretty piss-poor metrics, that held true. The offense looked ugly at times but hey, they got to 2.2 points per possession and the defense was doing just enough.
However, come December/January, the wheels came off and the whole house of cards fell apart.
Now, we enter a season where (at least according to our front office) the problems are fixed.
And once again, anything that was good last season will be expected to be AS GOOD with no regression. And all we have to do is band aid the bad spots of 2020 and all will be well.
So what does all this mean? Well, if we look through the lens of optimism (or from the Steelers front office perspective), this season really IS simple:
1. The defense continues to be a top notch defense. Ignore the December and playoff collapses. Concentrate more on the 2019 and first 10 games of 2020. For the most part, those pieces are still there. The team is still loaded with 1st and 2nd round talent all over the field. And the team should still be in the top-5 in generating turnovers (they were 1st in 2019 and 2nd in 2020).
2. The offensive line needed an overhaul. Now, those of us that like to look 2-3 seasons down the road knew this was coming. In fact, many on this board yelled and screamed about making changes a year too soon rather than a year too late on a line that averaged over 30 years of age. But that's not how Tombert does things. They milked the offensive line unit until it was a dry and scabbed over teat. And it likely caused us any chance of success in 2020. It regressed that quickly and to that poor a level. Unfortunately, the allocation of resources kind of leaves the offensive line with the short stick (all those 1st and 2nd round players on defense cost money) and draft capital over the past few season also have been allocated to other area of the field. But regardless of resources, cap space, or the talent of the young prospects on the roster, change had to happen and 2021. Now we enter a season with youth, cheap talent, mid-round picks and a shotgun approach of throwing a lot of guys into the camp competition and hope something at least mediocre comes out the other side. Oh, how I still wish we had Mike Munchak around to lead this group. But there is another way to make an average offensive look better than it really is and that leads us to #3.
3. Bring in a stud running back and ride that horse hard. This was Tombert's plan arguably from the moment the whistle blew on our 2020 season against Cleveland. Instead of trying to rebuild and get all the cohesive parts right on a 5-man unit, if you find a dynamic and talented enough running back, sometimes all you need is an average line to make it work. Whether or not Najee Harris is as good as the Steelers need him to be this season is an unknown. But the PLAN is for him to be that good. A player whose talent level will transcend and make better all the other parts of the offense around him (including an aging Roethlisberger).
Every analyst and expert knows we can't have Roethlisberger throw 600+ times (this team threw 650 times even winning 12 games!).
So it's back to basics with simple questions and simple answers this 2021 season. In a perfect world, the young guys on the offensive line stay healthy and get better by December. Najee Harris is the runaway rookie of the year with 2000+ yards from scrimmage. And the defense hangs on to their turnover capabilities for one last season before age (and salary cuts) start to erode their talent level.
Unfortunately (and this has been the Steelers undoing for the last decade), there really isn't a Plan B. If any part of this plan doesn't work or doesn't come together. If any part is derailed by injury or Roethlisberger's arm starts to go dead again in December, well.... it's back to "find the obvious problem, fix the obvious problem" for the 2022 offseason.
What is worse case? I think there is a possibility the wheels completely come off this year. We naysayers around here say that every year, but Tomlin consistently scratches out enough success to keep the "Steelers Way" mantra going.
I think what would be disaster is if the offensive line, during their growing pains, lets someone take a free run at Roethlisberger and he gets a season long injury. Najee Harris isn't quite the dynamic, explosive, 3-down runner we need. The defense regresses due to age drastically. And all of a sudden, we're looking at a team with an average line, Mason Rudolf at QB, a running game with a good (not great) running back and a defense that is just struggling to keep us in games.
A more realistic outlook is somewhere between the good and the bad. Roethlisberger might not get a season long injury, but he'll be banged up by December (that's almost a guarantee). Najee Harris and the running game is good, not great. We're behind in too many games and we throw the ball to much. And the defense/turnovers falls from 38 turnovers in 2019 to 27 turnovers in 2020 to 21 turnovers in 2022 (remember, this team only generated 15 turnovers all of 2018). Something like this scenario is probably what ends up happening and whether that's Tomlin's first losing season (7-10 or 8-9) or whether it's a sneak into the playoffs 10-7 or 11-6, who knows. But unless all the most optimistic of outcomes and projections happen for this team, I just don't see us being competitive with the top-gun franchises in the AFC this season (arguably KC and Buffalo) and will be hard pressed to hold up against Tennessee, Indy, Cleveland, Baltimore, San Diego and the like come playoff time.
I wish them the best. But I'm not really gearing up mentally for all that much success. Maybe I'll be pleasantly surprised if it happens.
If I would describe the Steelers as a franchise with one word, it is SIMPLE. They look at problems in simple ways and they attempt to solve them with even simpler answers.
The story of 2019 into 2020 was simple: hope the defense continued to play at a high level and generate turnovers while the return of Ben Roethlisberger gave a patchwork offense enough of a shot-in-the-arm to score enough points to win. For 11 weeks, despite some pretty piss-poor metrics, that held true. The offense looked ugly at times but hey, they got to 2.2 points per possession and the defense was doing just enough.
However, come December/January, the wheels came off and the whole house of cards fell apart.
Now, we enter a season where (at least according to our front office) the problems are fixed.
And once again, anything that was good last season will be expected to be AS GOOD with no regression. And all we have to do is band aid the bad spots of 2020 and all will be well.
So what does all this mean? Well, if we look through the lens of optimism (or from the Steelers front office perspective), this season really IS simple:
1. The defense continues to be a top notch defense. Ignore the December and playoff collapses. Concentrate more on the 2019 and first 10 games of 2020. For the most part, those pieces are still there. The team is still loaded with 1st and 2nd round talent all over the field. And the team should still be in the top-5 in generating turnovers (they were 1st in 2019 and 2nd in 2020).
2. The offensive line needed an overhaul. Now, those of us that like to look 2-3 seasons down the road knew this was coming. In fact, many on this board yelled and screamed about making changes a year too soon rather than a year too late on a line that averaged over 30 years of age. But that's not how Tombert does things. They milked the offensive line unit until it was a dry and scabbed over teat. And it likely caused us any chance of success in 2020. It regressed that quickly and to that poor a level. Unfortunately, the allocation of resources kind of leaves the offensive line with the short stick (all those 1st and 2nd round players on defense cost money) and draft capital over the past few season also have been allocated to other area of the field. But regardless of resources, cap space, or the talent of the young prospects on the roster, change had to happen and 2021. Now we enter a season with youth, cheap talent, mid-round picks and a shotgun approach of throwing a lot of guys into the camp competition and hope something at least mediocre comes out the other side. Oh, how I still wish we had Mike Munchak around to lead this group. But there is another way to make an average offensive look better than it really is and that leads us to #3.
3. Bring in a stud running back and ride that horse hard. This was Tombert's plan arguably from the moment the whistle blew on our 2020 season against Cleveland. Instead of trying to rebuild and get all the cohesive parts right on a 5-man unit, if you find a dynamic and talented enough running back, sometimes all you need is an average line to make it work. Whether or not Najee Harris is as good as the Steelers need him to be this season is an unknown. But the PLAN is for him to be that good. A player whose talent level will transcend and make better all the other parts of the offense around him (including an aging Roethlisberger).
Every analyst and expert knows we can't have Roethlisberger throw 600+ times (this team threw 650 times even winning 12 games!).
So it's back to basics with simple questions and simple answers this 2021 season. In a perfect world, the young guys on the offensive line stay healthy and get better by December. Najee Harris is the runaway rookie of the year with 2000+ yards from scrimmage. And the defense hangs on to their turnover capabilities for one last season before age (and salary cuts) start to erode their talent level.
Unfortunately (and this has been the Steelers undoing for the last decade), there really isn't a Plan B. If any part of this plan doesn't work or doesn't come together. If any part is derailed by injury or Roethlisberger's arm starts to go dead again in December, well.... it's back to "find the obvious problem, fix the obvious problem" for the 2022 offseason.
What is worse case? I think there is a possibility the wheels completely come off this year. We naysayers around here say that every year, but Tomlin consistently scratches out enough success to keep the "Steelers Way" mantra going.
I think what would be disaster is if the offensive line, during their growing pains, lets someone take a free run at Roethlisberger and he gets a season long injury. Najee Harris isn't quite the dynamic, explosive, 3-down runner we need. The defense regresses due to age drastically. And all of a sudden, we're looking at a team with an average line, Mason Rudolf at QB, a running game with a good (not great) running back and a defense that is just struggling to keep us in games.
A more realistic outlook is somewhere between the good and the bad. Roethlisberger might not get a season long injury, but he'll be banged up by December (that's almost a guarantee). Najee Harris and the running game is good, not great. We're behind in too many games and we throw the ball to much. And the defense/turnovers falls from 38 turnovers in 2019 to 27 turnovers in 2020 to 21 turnovers in 2022 (remember, this team only generated 15 turnovers all of 2018). Something like this scenario is probably what ends up happening and whether that's Tomlin's first losing season (7-10 or 8-9) or whether it's a sneak into the playoffs 10-7 or 11-6, who knows. But unless all the most optimistic of outcomes and projections happen for this team, I just don't see us being competitive with the top-gun franchises in the AFC this season (arguably KC and Buffalo) and will be hard pressed to hold up against Tennessee, Indy, Cleveland, Baltimore, San Diego and the like come playoff time.
I wish them the best. But I'm not really gearing up mentally for all that much success. Maybe I'll be pleasantly surprised if it happens.
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