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The Coronavirus thread

Stewey said:
Tim, do you still have your hair?

I'm about to pull mine out.
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Very little left. It's an irrational discussion. Data doesn't work. I know he's not a liberal and he's on "our team" but on this issue...well.

"what if we had done nothing?? We had to do something. The numbers dropping are evidence that the lockdown was necessary."

We will see lockdown apologists for the rest of our lives who will anecdotally say we had to do this without a bit of proof being required.
 
Further evidence about the prevalence of COVID-19 and its ACTUAL mortality rate.

Data from coronavirus deaths in Gangelt suggests an infection mortality rate of 0.37 percent, significantly below the 0.9 percent which Imperial College has estimated, or the 0.66 percent found in a revised study last week.

The 15 percent figure from Gangelt is interesting because it matches two previous studies. Firstly, there was the accidental experiment of the cruise ship the Diamond Princess, which inadvertently became a floating laboratory when a passenger showing symptoms of COVID-19 boarded on January 20 and remained in the ship, spreading the virus, for five days. The ship was eventually quarantined on February 3 and all its 3,711 passengers tested for the virus. It turned out the 634 of them — 17 percent — had been infected, many of them without symptoms. The mortality rate on the vessel was 1.2 percent — although, inevitably being a cruise ship, it was a relatively elderly cohort.
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https://spectator.us/covid-antibody-test-german-town-shows-15-percent-infection-rate/

So 0.37% to 0.6% makes the virus twice to four times more fatal than the regular flu. The 2 million and 240,000 and whatever mortality estimates were off by a factor of at least three, more likely eight.

Would any logical person recommend shutting down a $20 trillion economy with the concomitant devastation if the projected mortality result with common sense safety measures - stay-at home orders for the elderly, immuno-compromised, ban on gatherings of say more than 100 people - was 25,000 deaths? Or 50,000? Where the unfortunate victims were almost universally quite old and with significant comorbidity factors?

No, I don't think so. Why do I say that? Because the United States has never shut down its nation in anticipation of a flu killing 30,000 to 60,000 people - which it does pretty much every year.
 
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Tim Steelersfan said:
My son's test (taken last night) came back negative. Thank you Labcorp for the quick turn around.

Now back to the Great Suppression.
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It changed you a bit for that time I’m guessing. It did for me when my employee passed from it. Again still doesn’t change my stance about the whole thing, just makes ya pause when it’s close.
 
Tim Steelersfan said:
Very little left. It's an irrational discussion. Data doesn't work. I know he's not a liberal and he's on "our team" but on this issue...well.

"what if we had done nothing?? We had to do something. The numbers dropping are evidence that the lockdown was necessary."

We will see lockdown apologists for the rest of our lives who will anecdotally say we had to do this without a bit of proof being required.
Click to expand...

The hysteria on tv has done it's intent to the general population. Have the majority freaked out of their mind. Game, set and match!

So the question is how do we undo this and get normal? Do we have to wait for zero infections in the population? As if we just hide in the house long enough it just goes away.

What about outsiders traveling here from other countries who may be infected. This is going to be out in the world for a considerable amount of time. Guess that locking down the border along with highly regulated in coming from other countries isn't such a bad idea.
 
Stewey said:
Tim, do you still have your hair?

I'm about to pull mine out.
Click to expand...

I feel the same way. Besides mine is falling out fast enough we will look the same in the end. Ohio numbers were up today by the way. But in your and Tims defense they are not even close to the lowered projections Dr. Acton and her team have made. Let's hope it stays that way. Schools aside I think we will be back open to a large degree May 1st. Maybe not Cleveland but **** them just keep that **** show closed permanently.
 
For those that I am annoying the **** out of, I see both sides of this. I just don't have the luxury of not taking it seriously and looking at the numbers.

My daughter is at the hospital right now with 6 positive patients under her care and she has not been given an n95 mask to use because they are out(thanks obama) and is having to use a surgical mask instead. With her underlying health conditions I can't help but look at this through different eyes. She has to work 7pm-7am the next three nights. So while I agree with much of what you guys believe, I am still in favor of anything that helps keep her even a little safer and feel will still come through this ok as I don't think it will last much longer. As a parent would you not feel the same way?
 
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SteelerInLebanon said:
For those that I am annoying the **** out of, I see both sides of this. I just don't have the luxury of not taking it seriously and looking at the numbers.

My daughter is at the hospital right now with 6 positive patients under her care and she has not been given an n95 mask to use because they are out(thanks obama) and is having to use a surgical mask instead. With her underlying health conditions I can't help but look at this through different eyes. She has to work 7pm-7am the next three nights. So while I agree with much of what you guys believe, I am still in favor of anything that helps keep her even a little safer and feel will still come through this ok as I don't think it will last much longer. As a parent would you not feel the same way?
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Sorry to hear. How are they out of N95 or equivalent? Have they not been practicing “extended use?” Because of the supply strain? Not that I’m shocked by the no PPe it’s just not something my company has experienced. But we have been doing extended use for awhile. What kind of eye protection do they get? If she is running a face shield with that surgical mask that will make a world of difference.

Has the company consider PAPR units if avail for confirmed / positive patients or high risk process like arosol generating procedures?
 
SteelerInLebanon said:
For those that I am annoying the **** out of, I see both sides of this. I just don't have the luxury of not taking it seriously and looking at the numbers.

My daughter is at the hospital right now with 6 positive patients under her care and she has not been given an n95 mask to use because they are out(thanks obama) and is having to use a surgical mask instead. With her underlying health conditions I can't help but look at this through different eyes. She has to work 7pm-7am the next three nights. So while I agree with much of what you guys believe, I am still in favor of anything that helps keep her even a little safer and feel will still come through this ok as I don't think it will last much longer. As a parent would you not feel the same way?
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Of course. No question. Who would not spend whatever resources necessary - every penny available, every stone turned over, without limit - to save his daughter? Agree 100% with that.

And make no mistake, at all, I don't question your heart or your good intentions. Your concern for your daughter is awesome, SIL. I get that. Always have.

As I have mentioned, my little girl is a doctor at a major hospital in an urban area. Even better, she is an anesthesiologist who had tremendous knowledge of ventilators. Most don't know this but in medical school and residency, anesthesiologists learn a ton about their equipment and learn to maintain and repair the respirators, etc. because the doctors cannot freaking wait for a repair guy if something goes wrong. So I get it.

But you know why you hire a lawyer for something that means everything to you - wrongful termination lawsuit, or possible criminal punishment? Because the lawyer knows the law, yeah, sure, but also because the lawyer can look over the information and give an informed consultation, with less emotion involved.

Because that tends to be better advice, doesn't it?
 
Ironcitysteelers said:
It changed you a bit for that time I’m guessing. It did for me when my employee passed from it. Again still doesn’t change my stance about the whole thing, just makes ya pause when it’s close.
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Honestly, it didn't change my "opinions" or stance in the least. You can see I was still here railing about this shut down after I announced yesterday he was off to get tested.

I prepared for this expecting we would get it. Prepped, stocked up on food, laid down the law, kept everyone at home.

Hearing yesterday "he should get tested" was a little like hearing last fall that my wife tested positive for breast cancer. Shock. Not to the same degree. My throat's been sore for a day and I'm a high risk candidate (asthmatic). So some worry set in.

But my position didn't.

It sucks, that's for sure though.
 
I joked about lawyers in your China thread, kidding of course. I’ll be grabbing one soon. For those that don’t know, you are required by law to report any workplace death to osha. So I did. Hardest thing in my life. Didn’t even know them, just felt like I failed as a professional..... Enough on that.

It’s ridiculous that this is a requirement during this global pandemic. The response, and the “telephonic” inspection that we have to go through is mind boggling to me. I have been through countless inspections, this is heartless. If my site is cited, I will take them to the review commission and spend countless of dollars. That center has done everything right. We have have done everything. We fight an invisible enemy but we do it for you. **** you to tell me/us what “you think” we coulda da.


Sorry. Just got that today. Still fresh.
 
Tim Steelersfan said:
Honestly, it didn't change my "opinions" or stance in the least. You can see I was still here railing about this shut down after I announced yesterday he was off to get tested.

I prepared for this expecting we would get it. Prepped, stocked up on food, laid down the law, kept everyone at home.

Hearing yesterday "he should get tested" was a little like hearing last fall that my wife tested positive for breast cancer. Shock. Not to the same degree. My throat's been sore for a day and I'm a high risk candidate (asthmatic). So some worry set in.

But my position didn't.

It sucks, that's for sure though.
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Ehh each their own. Glad it worked out.


Again, it’s just been a tickle for me. Still think is bs shut down.
 
On a somewhat tangential topic, but a bit related, TSF and SIL's comments remind me of the incredible divide on viewing personal firearm ownership as between the left ("only the government should have guns") and the right ("the government is why I have guns"). (Noting only the genuine concerns for family noted, not questioning personal views on the issue.)

The difference is this: The left fears what harm private citizens will do with the firearms; the gun owners know they have the firearms solely to prevent harm to their families and neighbors.
 
SteelerInLebanon said:
For those that I am annoying the **** out of, I see both sides of this. I just don't have the luxury of not taking it seriously and looking at the numbers.

My daughter is at the hospital right now with 6 positive patients under her care and she has not been given an n95 mask to use because they are out(thanks obama) and is having to use a surgical mask instead. With her underlying health conditions I can't help but look at this through different eyes. She has to work 7pm-7am the next three nights. So while I agree with much of what you guys believe, I am still in favor of anything that helps keep her even a little safer and feel will still come through this ok as I don't think it will last much longer. As a parent would you not feel the same way?
Click to expand...

Best to your daughter and I sincerely mean that, as I've said before.

Where I have continued to disagree with you is on the practicality, or some of the statements you make that are obviously wishful thinking. I get it, you want to protect your baby. But to say this will be over soon when De Blasio said today they expect to keep New York shut down into June....where Wall Street is...

One can't say "I don't think it will last much longer" when the daily news says otherwise, that's all.

Our nation can't last this shut down much longer.
 
Ironcitysteelers said:
Sorry to hear. How are they out of N95 or equivalent? Have they not been practicing “extended use?” Because of the supply strain? Not that I’m shocked by the no PPe it’s just not something my company has experienced. But we have been doing extended use for awhile. What kind of eye protection do they get? If she is running a face shield with that surgical mask that will make a world of difference.

Has the company consider PAPR units if avail for confirmed / positive patients or high risk process like arosol generating procedures?
Click to expand...

I think they may have shields when they go in but for a major hospital with a level 3 trauma unit they have been woefully bad. They ran out of N95 like two weeks ago and started reusing what they could a week ago. Hopefully they will get some more from Battelle doing the sanitizing and sterilization now in Columbus but apparently they are not getting enough of the mask in to clean. DeWine was begging the hospitals to get them sent in after all the strings he pulled to get the approval. Luckily Hamilton County is in much better shape than the Cleveland area but that means they are getting the shaft on priority of PPE shipments. I think Detroit and NYC are sucking the rest of the country dry.
 
SteelerInLebanon said:
I think they may have shields when they go in but for a major hospital with a level 3 trauma unit they have been woefully bad. They ran out of N95 like two weeks ago and started reusing what they could a week ago. Hopefully they will get some more from Battelle doing the sanitizing and sterilization now in Columbus but apparently they are not getting enough of the mask in to clean. DeWine was begging the hospitals to get them sent in after all the strings he pulled to get the approval. Luckily Hamilton County is in much better shape than the Cleveland area but that means they are getting the shaft on priority of PPE shipments. I think Detroit and NYC are sucking the rest of the country dry.
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I have to hand it to my procurement team. We have turned over every stone to find ****. Also to our IC team, when the CDC came out with “extended” use we went with it. We knew if we didn’t we would have none. As a safety person, it’s been like “you can’t reuse an N95”. But this is emergency times.
 
Ironcitysteelers said:
For those that don’t know, you are required by law to report any workplace death to osha. So I did. Hardest thing in my life. Didn’t even know them, just felt like I failed as a professional..... Enough on that. ... If my site is cited, I will take them to the review commission and spend countless of dollars.
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Based on my admittedly limited experience representing employers in Cal-OSHA (California's version, state law modeled on the Federal OSHA standards), I believe your company is unlikely to face any negative consequences, IC. Very hard to believe the company would be criticized for a viral infection that may have come from work, or somewhere else, and has infected hundreds of thousands in the United States.

As you know, the OSHA officials typically go after an employer only when they find a violation of an OSHA or related (and damn near innumerable) safety guideline enacted under that statute. Things such as a faulty safety harness, lack of railing on a scaffold, unsafe disposal of job site hazardous waste, etc.
 
Tim Steelersfan said:
Best to your daughter and I sincerely mean that, as I've said before.

Where I have continued to disagree with you is on the practicality, or some of the statements you make that are obviously wishful thinking. I get it, you want to protect your baby. But to say this will be over soon when De Blasio said today they expect to keep New York shut down into June....where Wall Street is...

One can't say "I don't think it will last much longer" when the daily news says otherwise, that's all.

Our nation can't last this shut down much longer.
Click to expand...

I think our disagreement economically comes down to opinions on the elasticity of our economy to overcome an artificial downturn caused by outside forces and not market forces as well the ability of current leadership(Trump) to get it going again. It will certainly not be easy or without pain but I also think it will improve some of the inherent flaws we had long term in reliance on overseas manufacturing at least to a degree. Bringing home manufacturing could possibly offset the losses we face and build a stronger base.

As far has how fast we open that’s gong to vary. Just like you said Wall Street and NYC might take a bit longer bit longer but isn’t Wall Street as a physical entity and place a little less important in today’s digital world? Not everyone is saying it will take as long as others. Our President seems hell bent on getting going what he can.

I get your views, I just think you are possibly missing some variables in the comparisons you use on previous studies. It will certainly be an interesting case study for future political scientists and economists.


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SteelerInLebanon said:
I think our disagreement economically comes down to opinions on the elasticity of our economy to overcome an artificial downturn caused by outside forces and not market forces as well the ability of current leadership(Trump) to get it going again. It will certainly not be easy or without pain but I also think it will improve some of the inherent flaws we had long term in reliance on overseas manufacturing at least to a degree. Bringing home manufacturing could possibly offset the losses we face and build a stronger base.
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I think you might be right, and your comment shows you are at the core a genuine optimist. I too hope - pray - that the United States drops the ******* hammer on China, takes back every manufacturing job, every plant, every employee, every last one, ever sent to China.

I am buying a new coffee grinder. Have gone to one place and left because the one they had that interested me ... "Made in China." **** that. Never again. Every American should make the same vow. Never again, China - never again.

And as to the damage done to the economy, I know one thing ...

3w75v1.jpg
 
Steeltime said:
Based on my admittedly limited experience representing employers in Cal-OSHA (California's version, state law modeled on the Federal OSHA standards), I believe your company is unlikely to face any negative consequences, IC. Very hard to believe the company would be criticized for a viral infection that may have come from work, or somewhere else, and has infected hundreds of thousands in the United States.

As you know, the OSHA officials typically go after an employer only when they find a violation of an OSHA or related (and damn near innumerable) safety guideline enacted under that statute. Things such as a faulty safety harness, lack of railing on a scaffold, unsafe disposal of job site hazardous waste, etc.
Click to expand...

Unfortunately that has not been my experience with osha. Osha is nothing g more than a revenue generating beach of the govt. while their intentions are pure, the applications (in my field) are not. We are hit with technical violations for 10s of thousands with no impact of prevail a of injury /illness.

We have taken them to the review commission several times and won. But to what extent. Spending tens of thousands vs a coupl3. Greater good for a national company bc of repeats and willful violations.

Sorry I just have no love lost for them. Once I was cited for over 10gs for a blocked electrical panel. Yes legit, but ten ******* grand for something that has not would not cause injury. I proposed spending that same amount of lifts. Something that would impact losses. They said no. Right their I knew.
 
Steeltime said:
I think you might be right, and your comment shows you are at the core a genuine optimist. I too hope - pray - that the United States drops the ******* hammer on China, takes back every manufacturing job, every plant, every employee, every last one, ever sent to China.

I am buying a new coffee grinder. Have gone to one place and left because the one they had that interested me ... "Made in China." **** that. Never again. Every American should make the same vow. Never again, China - never again.

And as to the damage done to the economy, I know one thing ...

3w75v1.jpg
Click to expand...

That optimism will fade quickly if we lose the Presidency and Congress.


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