I'm assuming you mean they actually lost those 4 games rather than beat the spread, right?
In any event, saying triple expected outcomes with an 11 game sample when it is really 2 games that went one way or the other.
80% would be 8.8 wins, so let's go with 9 which is 81.8%, which means we should be 9-2 in those games right? All you need to show is that, in two of those games, Ben played badly and/or there was a significant injury. We know of one that happened yesterday. That leaves 1 in 3 games.
This last game had a bad outing by Ben and some injuries that might, at least partially, explain the outcome, yes? If Ben doesn't get injured, our chances for a comeback increase a great deal, IMO. After seeing the first half performance, I'm not so sure how much more certain that comeback would be, but still higher.
What were those other three games? Did Ben play great and we still lost? Did we have some significant injuries during the game or stay healthy and still lost?
Those numbers also don't take into account the games in which we are heavily favored, and play terribly, well below our standards, but still get lucky and pull out a W. Don't get me wrong, all W's count the same in the win column, and I'll never complain about getting a W over an L, but the overall trend of playing like **** is still the same.
Recent examples are:
2011- 23-20 W over a hapless Colts team without Peyton. This is the year they tanked and "sucked for Luck", but this one was WAY too close for comfort. We let Curtis Painter lead an 80 yard drive late in the 4th to tie. Come on
2011- 17-13 W over Jacksonville IN HEINZ FIELD. Jville finished 5-11. We jumped out to a 17-0 lead and stopped caring. We got cocky and relaxed and just let them walk back into the game led by the mighty Blaine Gabbert at QB. Ben was 12-23 passing. And this was the same situation. A 4-1 Steelers team vs. a 1-4 **** team.
2011- 13-9 W over Kansas City led by the mighty Tyler Palko. We were 7-3 and they were 4-6 going in. Palko turned it over 4 times (including 3 INTs) but yet we only managed 13 points, all in the 2nd quarter. Ben didn't even crack 200 yards passing. Ugly, dirty, listless play because we didn't care.
2011- 13-9 W over Cleveland to end the season. Sure Ben was a little gimpy, but Cleveland was 4-11 and starting a dreadful Seneca Wallace at QB. We just could not score points, which seemed to be a staple of that team. They went to the playoffs and the Tebow game happened.
2012- Taking on the Philly Eagles didn't seem like one of these games at first. They were 3-1 going into this game. We squeaked out a hideous 16-14 win in Pittsburgh where Mike Vick threw for 2 TDs, Ben didn't crack 6 yards per attempt, and we could only muster 16 points. Oh yeah, the Eagles went on to lose all but one of the rest of their games and finish a strong 4-12.
2012- 16-13 overtime W over the woeful, dreadful 1-7 KC Chiefs. This team literally did not have a lead in regulation ALL SEASON until they played us in week 10. Their only W to that point came in overtime when they came from behind. Their first lead OF THE SEASON was against us. And we, the 5-3 Steelers AT HOME with playoff aspirations, managed 16 points and to beat them by only 3. Oh yeah, AND we lost Ben in that game too. Because of course, in games that we play like ****, we have to compound it by Ben getting hurt. And before he got hurt, he was 9/18 for 84 yards. Against a 1-7 team. At Heinz Field.
2014- 30-27 win over the Browns in week 1. We jumped ALL OVER these losers in the first half leading 27-3 at halftime. We looked like world beaters. But, as in typical Steelers fashion, when we are feeling good about ourselves is when we play our absolute worst. Great performances by Brian Hoyer and Terrance West, and 2 TDs from Isaiah Crowell later, all of a sudden the game is *******
TIED 27-27. We needed a last second game-winner from Sushi to pull out a W against the ******* Browns in a game we led 27-3. Jesus ******* Christ. I know they finished 7-9 so they were better than they usually are, but it was still Cleveland, and we were still leading by 4 scores. They also kicked the living **** out of us later that year.
2014- 17-9 win over Jacksonville a week after somehow inexplicably being beaten by a horrific Tampa Bay team. Oh by the way, we got a defensive TD in this game that sealed it. We scored 17 points against 0-4 Jacksonville (who finished 3-13) and barely pulled out a W by the skin of our teeth. Ben, Bell, and Brown were healthy IIRC, and all played the entire game. But hey 17 points including an INT return TD against a winless team seems perfectly acceptable. This is the same team that, only a few weeks later, featured Ben throwing 6 TD passes in consecutive games.
2014- 27-24 victory over the hapless Tennessee Titans. We were 6-4 going in to the game, they were 2-7. They were leading 24-13 going into the 4th, with our only TD coming on defense. We needed a furious 4th quarter rally to come back and win this game. Again, this is the same team and QB who set passing TD records just a few weeks earlier. How the hell do you not score a single offensive TD for 3 quarters and need 2 fourth quarter TDs to squeak out a W against a pathetic 2-7 Titans team? Oh yeah, we let Mettenberger look like Dan Marino for most of the game.
2015- 12-6 W over the Rams. What a hideous game. Yes Ben was injured, yes we had to put in Vick. But wtf. Ben had 0 TDs and an INT before his injury. We had 9 points in the first half with him and 3 in the second. Bell was healthy, Brown was healthy, but we just couldn't score even before Ben got hurt. In almost all of these games, we just can't put points on the board even if we move the ball okay. Then of course, as what seems to happen in so many of these games, we lost Ben in this game for the next several weeks. Why?!
Okay guys - these are games we WON. We could barely score points in any of these games. And even in the games we put up respectable scoring totals, it was still an ugly, undisciplined, terrible game to watch against a horrific team that had no business keeping it close with us. There are games that could have set tones for how we came out in other games in those seasons. These are games that may not have had a tangible impact on our playoff positioning, but VERY easily could have given the way we came out and played in these games.
Now I'm not saying we need to just flat destroy every single bad team. But given the trend of losing to these bad teams that has plagued us for years, it is also prudent to remember the trend of playing HORRIBLY and being very lucky to win against these ****** teams as well. And in almost every instance of playing horribly featured our offense utterly incapable of scoring points despite our HOF QB and full or nearly full complements of weapons surrounding him.
Plain and simple, this team picks and chooses when it wants to play, and has no idea how to adjust their mentality when an "inferior" team gives them a tougher game than they expect. They are too cocky, too relaxed, and it is obvious week in and week out, year in and year out but no one seems to care or do **** about it.
