• Please be aware we've switched the forums to their own URL. (again) You'll find the new website address to be www.steelernationforum.com Thanks
  • Please clear your private messages. Your inbox is close to being full.

"Najee Harris ain't it". NAJEE 3.0 It's time to go, yo....

insaniti said:
Saquon Barkley went from 3.7, 4.4, and 3.9 to 5.8. Going from a bad team to a good team, with a QB makes a HUGE difference. Am I saying to expect Najee to get almost 6 yards a carry, no I'm not. But to say that stuff doesn't happen is ridiculous. Especially when you have teams that we faced just this last year that said "we know they are going to run the ball, even if it isn't working, they are going to run the ball". And this was evident in Najee's career yards BEFORE contact average of 1.82. He's hit in the backfield more than any other back in the league, and the numbers back that up.

He's not a zone blocking back, that's what they are trying to run here. LAC runs a man blocking scheme, fits Najee's style. I'll take the bet, he improves on his ypa and total yards over last years numbers.
Click to expand...
Apples to apples
2024
Yards before contact/ att
Harris 2.0
Dobbins 2.1
Edwards 1.2

Yards after contact/ att
Harris 2.0
Dobbins 2.5
Edwards 2.3
 
I think Najee will produce more there than he did here. It won’t be astronomical, but should be in that 1/2 yrd per carry area.

4.2-4.5 yards / attempt, from 3.9 here. His pass yards will be higher as well.


Salute the nation
 
topseed said:
Najee is already listed at the top of the Chargers' depth chart. Behind him are Kimani Vidal, Hassan Haskins, and Jaret Patterson.

If LA doesn't take a legitimate competitor at the position in the draft, Harris is going to get plenty of touches.
Click to expand...
See if he can up his less-than 4 ypc.
 
To all the Najee truthers here. In fairness considering how handcuffed Harris supposedly was in Pitt due to the scheme, line, coaches etc
Whoever leads this team in 2025 at RB whether its Warren or a rookie will have a higher YPC than Najee's career 3.9.
Loser leaves Steelernation.
Who wants to put their money where their mouth is??
 
bigben said:
To all the Najee truthers here. In fairness considering how handcuffed Harris supposedly was in Pitt due to the scheme, line, coaches etc
Whoever leads this team in 2025 at RB whether its Warren or a rookie will have a higher YPC than Najee's career 3.9.
Loser leaves Steelernation.
Who wants to put their money where their mouth is??
Click to expand...
Why would you want someone to leave steelernation? Someone disagrees and one should leave? Kinda ****** up
 
bigben said:
To all the Najee truthers here. In fairness considering how handcuffed Harris supposedly was in Pitt due to the scheme, line, coaches etc
Whoever leads this team in 2025 at RB whether its Warren or a rookie will have a higher YPC than Najee's career 3.9.
Loser leaves Steelernation.
Who wants to put their money where their mouth is??
Click to expand...
So, we change up our OL by getting rid of the weak link, have a completely different QB room (again), and somehow that will translate to an apples to apples comparison? When my hole argument for Najee being in a better position with the Chargers is the fact he'll be away from a zone blocking scheme and have a threat at QB that keeps teams from being able to stack the box as consistently...how does that make any sense at all?

And for the record, even Jaylen Warren had his lowest ypa of his career last year. So it's a dumb wager...especially trying to get someone to leave, like Blitz said.
 
NorthernBlitz said:
Re Smith vs Harbaugh: But less heavily than we ran it last year. Although there seems to be no competition. So as long as he doesn't lose a bunch of carries to a new rookie (deep RB class, so they'll probably draft one) or an undrafted rookie (like Warren) or something, maybe he'll get a bigger share of the workload than he got with us last year.

But since Najee is incredibly consistent across all 4 years, to best his best year with us (his rookie year) he wouldn't just have to get more work than with Smith (who ran it 8.5% more than Harbaugh...probably in fewer total plays, which I didn't check). He'd have to run more than he did in his rookie year (where he got career high yardage totals...but ~ the same YPC). And there just aren't many backs in the moden NFL who get that much work.
Click to expand...
I mean, I don't know how many different ways you need me to say it. The Chargers ran their number one back more, on average, than the Steelers did last season. This season, Najee will be their clear-cut, #1 back, and he is a workhorse, so it should be natural to infer that he will get more carries than he did in a virtual platoon system last year. If LA ends up drafting a running back on day one or two, then it's a different conversation, but for right now, the guy doesn't have a quality veteran like Edwards or Warren to split carries with.

And give the 15% (or now 8.5%) shlt a break...you're talking about a 2 carry per game difference like it's the gospel, or something. Game flow, whether the team is ahead or behind, opponent tendencies, etc. -- all these can easily factor in to such a small deviation. As I said, Harbaugh has a distinct track record in running the football, and there is simply no reason to believe that it won't continue.
NorthernBlitz said:
Re: "conveniently for me...". I'll try to explain the logic here. Because apparently it wasn't clear.

Notice that Najee's career highs in rushing and receiving also happen in his rookie year. But his yards/carry are very stable across his ~ 1100 carries. Basically the same value every year. Najee is extremely consistent.

My guess is that players tend not to get massive increases in efficiency after 1,100 carries in the NFL. Just like every year since his rookie year I've said that he won't get a 40 yard carry. And every year that's been true. Doesn't mean that betting the streak always works. But it's been a good strategy with Najee so far. Because he's big and strong so he can get tough yards. But he isn't fast (basically never runs away from guys) and he doesn't seem to have great vision (see: Ramon Foster saying that Najee runs into the backs of OL becuase he goes where holes should be isntead of where they are).

I get that the blocking hasn't been great (although I think it's on an upward trend and his YPC has stayed the same). He's also going to a team that had the same 4.1 YPC that the Steelers had last year. But in ~1,1000 he never had a carry that was blocked well enough to take 40 yards? Again, Bettis had run longer than Najee's career best in his last year with the Steelers. It's crazy that Najee hasn't had a 40 yard run just by dumb luck across that much work.

So my argument is that Najee would only beat his career best totals in rushing and receiving if he gets more touches.

And since I don't think he'll best the most touches he got with us (you're right, in his rookie year), I don't think he'll best his rushing or receiving totals. Plus, he has to stay healthy all year. This is his super-power. And it's pretty amazing that he's had this much work without any serious injuries. But it comes for all RBs eventually.

Hope that makes sense now. I'm OK if you don't agre with me. We'll see next season.
Click to expand...
Jesus. This a tremendous word salad that offers very little substance. No point in trying to make sense of it, but thanks?

Don't you think that maybe, just maybe, Harris got a few more carries in his rookie season because Jaylen Warren wasn't around yet? In 2021, Najee had 1200 yards on 307 attempts -- the #2 back was Benny Snell, who had a grand total of 38 rushes for 98 yards. Less competition = more carries. I know, that's hard to imagine.

My prediction is that Najee is going to have a very good season with his new team. In a system which better suits him, amongst an uncrowded backfield, and for a coach who has always been dedicated to running the football. He's going to blow away any year from his Steelers' history you'd like to compare it to, rookie or otherwise.

Yes, we'll see next season. I've been wrong before.
 
topseed said:
...

Yes, we'll see next season. I've been wrong before.
Click to expand...
This.

It's pretty rare to get 300+ carries though.

There were 6 guys to do in in 2024. Which is well above the recent trend. Personally, I'd bet on reversion to the mean in 2025.
  • 0 in 2023.
  • 3 in 2022.
  • 2 in 2021.
Probably assume 2-4 guys again in 2024. Maybe Najee's one of them. I think we'll have a better idea after the draft. I don't know what the Chargers' other needs are. But it's a very deep RB class. Najee is currently their only legit NFL back. And he's only on a 1 year deal. RBs are easy to replace, so they might wait until next year. But without knowing their other needs, my guess would be they'd pick up a RB before the end of day 2.

Now...let's have a look at how many carries he might get.

In 2021 we had a total of
  • Najee 307 (80.5%)
  • Snell 36
  • Claypool 14
  • Ballage 12
  • McFarland 3
  • Juju 3
  • McCloud 2
  • Washington 2
  • Other Watt 1
  • Ebron 1

Najee had 263 carries in 2024. That was ~ 61.5% of our carries because Warren missed time and then was eased back in.

Let's say that the Chargers still have 394 non-QB rushing plays. And Najee's carry share is about half-way between what he did last year with Warren hurt and what when we tried to run the wheels off him in 2021. That's ~70%. That gives him 276 carries. To get a career high (1,201 yards) he'd need 4.35 ypc. Maybe he increases his YPC by 10%. But he's been remarkably consistent over his 4 years.

If he gets 80% of the carries (has to be close to the max I'd guess), then I think you'll be right and he'll get to 1201 yards. Would only need ~ 3.8 YPC and he's been very consistently above that.

Maybe he gets this if their RB room stays the same and he doesn't lose too many carries to the no name guys they have.

But if they draft a day 1 or 2 RB, maybe it's closer to the 60% we gave him this year. Or maybe even the ~ 50% he was getting when he and Warren were both healthy at the end of the year if a rookie RB shows the explosiveness that Najee hasn't shown to date.

We can play around with these numbers more...but it's all just speculation. My guess is that Najee will probably need to get those monster runs that elite backs get if he is going to get to 1200 again. And the fact that he's never done it in ~1,100 carries suggests that he's not about to start doing it consistently.

So I don't think he gets to that number without 300+ carries again. And it's really hard to bet on a guy getting that much work without getting hurt. Even though staying healthy is Najee's super power.

Like you said...if it goes the other way it won't be the first time I've been wrong. But it would be the first time I've been wrong about Najee.
 
Last edited:
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top