"Najee Harris ain't it". NAJEE 3.0 It's time to go, yo....

[topseed]

I think it will be interesting to see what happens here.

I don't think he'll get as many touches as he had with us.

So to have a bigger season, he'll have to be a lot more efficient. And he's been extremely consistent in his career in YPC / success% despite improvements in OL, changes in OCs, etc.

I'd say that he might end up being more efficient, but I don't think he's going to start ripping off the huge runs that really drive up YPC. He's just not fast enough and / or doesn't have the vision to find the holes.

But I think he'll be a valuable piece for the Chargers. In part because they don't need him to be the main piece of the offense like we did. It's a better fit for him there IMO.

All of this assumes he'll remain healthy. And the probability of that for RBs tends to decline sharply after the first 4-5 years. But Najee's been insanely durable. Hopefully that holds for him. He's an easy guy to root for. Seems like a good human.

Najee is already listed at the top of the Chargers' depth chart. Behind him are Kimani Vidal, Hassan Haskins, and Jaret Patterson.

If LA doesn't take a legitimate competitor at the position in the draft, Harris is going to get plenty of touches.

 

[stillwright]

I think it will be interesting to see what happens here.

I don't think he'll get as many touches as he had with us.

So to have a bigger season, he'll have to be a lot more efficient. And he's been extremely consistent in his career in YPC / success% despite improvements in OL, changes in OCs, etc.

I'd say that he might end up being more efficient, but I don't think he's going to start ripping off the huge runs that really drive up YPC. He's just not fast enough and / or doesn't have the vision to find the holes.

But I think he'll be a valuable piece for the Chargers. In part because they don't need him to be the main piece of the offense like we did. It's a better fit for him there IMO.

All of this assumes he'll remain healthy. And the probability of that for RBs tends to decline sharply after the first 4-5 years. But Najee's been insanely durable. Hopefully that holds for him. He's an easy guy to root for. Seems like a good human.

You don't bring in a guy to be your "main piece" of the offense and not have the system and scheme set up for them to succeed. Tomlin and our GM's failed miserably.

 

[NorthernBlitz]

Najee is already listed at the top of the Chargers' depth chart. Behind him are Kimani Vidal, Hassan Haskins, and Jaret Patterson.

If LA doesn't take a legitimate competitor at the position in the draft, Harris is going to get plenty of touches.

Last year Dobbins had 195 carries and Edwards had 101 carries. 296 for the top 2 guys. They had a total of 463 rushing plays all season.

For us, Najee had 263 carries and Warren had 120. 383 for the top 2 guys. We had a total of 533 rushing plays all season (15% more than they did).

We just run a lot more than most other teams.

Interestingly, both teams had the same YPC (4.1).

If they have approximately the same number of rushes next year as they did last year, then Najee's carries will probably go down. Even if he's more of a "bell cow" than he was with us.

I agree with you that they currently have only replacement level guys behind him. So my guess is that they pick up a cheap vet or draft a RB in this deep class to split carries with him.

 

[NorthernBlitz]

You don't bring in a guy to be your "main piece" of the offense and not have the system and scheme set up for them to succeed. Tomlin and our GM's failed miserably.

I rarely complain about draft in real time, but I didn't like that draft at all.

I don't like RBs in the 1st, but I guess there was an argument that Najee could have been seen to be in the discussion for BPA after all the OTs were gone.

But the pick I really hated was Freiermuth over Humphrey. It's the only draft pick I every really, really hated / complained about when it happened. I really didn't like taking the luxury pick of a TE when we desperately needed a C. Especially since it made it so we got stuck with Green later.

I will always wonder if that was part of the deal for Ben to take a paycut. We'll get you some new toys if you come back at a cheaper rate. Probably conspiracy stuff...and 100% speculation...but that's what I think.

Thankfully, it does look like we've fixed the C position now. And PF is at least OK...particularly against the Bengals, which seems to be the only team we'll make him a big part of the game plan.

 

[insaniti]

Let us know who's next since anybody can do it...

FYI Bijan Robinson has not done it in two years that he's been in the league. Neither has Jahmyr Gibbs, Travis Etienne, Saquon Barkley or the king - Derrick Henry...

I think I need to turn my "this is sarcasm" lights on brighter.

 

[topseed]

Last year Dobbins had 195 carries and Edwards had 101 carries. 296 for the top 2 guys. They had a total of 463 rushing plays all season.

For us, Najee had 263 carries and Warren had 120. 383 for the top 2 guys. We had a total of 533 rushing plays all season (15% more than they did).

We just run a lot more than most other teams.

Interestingly, both teams had the same YPC (4.1).

If they have approximately the same number of rushes next year as they did last year, then Najee's carries will probably go down. Even if he's more of a "bell cow" than he was with us.

I agree with you that they currently have only replacement level guys behind him. So my guess is that they pick up a cheap vet or draft a RB in this deep class to split carries with him.

Those are a lot of stats which don't really help to prove your point. Dobbins and Edwards missed a combined 10 games last season. Najee played all 17, and Warren missed only 2. Thus, in actuality, the Chargers top two backs averaged more carries per game, 24.7 to 23.9. Harris averaged about a half a carry more per game than Dobbins did, 15.47 to 15. Wow, HUGE difference there.

Interestingly, their #1 guy averaged 4.6 YPC, while the Steelers' #1 guy averaged 4.0.

Barring injury, Najee's carries are not going to go down in 2025. There is no #2 guy there in LA to challenge him. Maybe Vidal's 43 rushes for 155 yards for a 3.6 YPC last year impressed you. Not me.

 

[NorthernBlitz]

Those are a lot of stats which don't really help to prove your point. Dobbins and Edwards missed a combined 10 games last season. Najee played all 17, and Warren missed only 2. Thus, in actuality, the Chargers top two backs averaged more carries per game, 24.7 to 23.9. Harris averaged about a half a carry more per game than Dobbins did, 15.47 to 15. Wow, HUGE difference there.

Interestingly, their #1 guy averaged 4.6 YPC, while the Steelers' #1 guy averaged 4.0.

Barring injury, Najee's carries are not going to go down in 2025. There is no #2 guy there in LA to challenge him. Maybe Vidal's 43 rushes for 155 yards for a 3.6 YPC last year impressed you. Not me.

Not sure if you saw it, we ran 15% more running plays than they did.

I don't think that moving away from A Smith as an OC == going to a less run heavy offense should come as a surprise.

Ultimately we'll see.

I can't see any world were he gets as many touches as we gave him as a rookie.

 

[insaniti]

Not sure if you saw it, we ran 15% more running plays than they did.

I don't think that moving away from A Smith as an OC == going to a less run heavy offense should come as a surprise.

Ultimately we'll see.

I can't see any world were he gets as many touches as we gave him as a rookie.

Smooth little edit you did there...but I digress. He pointed out that their top two backs missed significant amount of time. So you can't go by total attempts, but you CAN compare attempts PER GAME.

So if JK missed 7 games, but averaged 15 carries per game, and Najee missed 0 games, and averaged 15.5 carries per game...over a 17 game span, the difference in the number of carries between JK (Chargers RB1 last year) and Najee is 8 carries. So why wouldn't Najee get the same number of touches in his new offense as he did here? Assuming he does what he's done the last four years, stay healthy.

We'll take it a step further. Gus averaged 9.2 carries per game, and he missed 6 games. Warren averaged 8 carries per game, and he missed two games. So they ran their RB2 more than we did.

Lets go down the line some more, and here's where we are going to get our 15% more running plays. Fields averaged 6.2 carries per game, including games he didn't start. Wilson averaged 3.9 carries, for a total of 10.1 carries per game from our QB's. Herbert averaged 4 carries per game.

Why did we run 15% more? Because we used our QB's in the running game, quite heavily in the first 6 games too. But as far as RB's, and the touches they get, pretty even. Najee will get his volume, might even get more since they currently don't have that Gus Edward RB2...

 

[NorthernBlitz]

Smooth little edit you did there...but I digress. He pointed out that their top two backs missed significant amount of time. So you can't go by total attempts, but you CAN compare attempts PER GAME.

So if JK missed 7 games, but averaged 15 carries per game, and Najee missed 0 games, and averaged 15.5 carries per game...over a 17 game span, the difference in the number of carries between JK (Chargers RB1 last year) and Najee is 8 carries. So why wouldn't Najee get the same number of touches in his new offense as he did here? Assuming he does what he's done the last four years, stay healthy.

We'll take it a step further. Gus averaged 9.2 carries per game, and he missed 6 games. Warren averaged 8 carries per game, and he missed two games. So they ran their RB2 more than we did.

Lets go down the line some more, and here's where we are going to get our 15% more running plays. Fields averaged 6.2 carries per game, including games he didn't start. Wilson averaged 3.9 carries, for a total of 10.1 carries per game from our QB's. Herbert averaged 4 carries per game.

Why did we run 15% more? Because we used our QB's in the running game, quite heavily in the first 6 games too. But as far as RB's, and the touches they get, pretty even. Najee will get his volume, might even get more since they currently don't have that Gus Edward RB2...

It was not edited after it was quoted. The info on total rushing attempts is in the post that was quoted at the end of the 2nd line.

QB rushing is a good point. I didn't think of that when looking at total rushing attempts.

And if Najee does end up having no competition maybe they do run the wheels off him like we did in his rookie year. And maybe he continues to survive that kind of work load without missing time.

We all have guesses about what will happen. We'll have to wait a while to see who's closer to being right.

 

[Lloyd]

Najee is already listed at the top of the Chargers' depth chart. Behind him are Kimani Vidal, Hassan Haskins, and Jaret Patterson.

If LA doesn't take a legitimate competitor at the position in the draft, Harris is going to get plenty of touches.

I wonder if he'll keep his wonderful sub-4 ypc avg, going?

 

[NorthernBlitz]

It was not edited after it was quoted. The info on total rushing attempts is in the post that was quoted at the end of the 2nd line.

QB rushing is a good point. I didn't think of that when looking at total rushing attempts.

And if Najee does end up having no competition maybe they do run the wheels off him like we did in his rookie year. And maybe he continues to survive that kind of work load without missing time.

We all have guesses about what will happen. We'll have to wait a while to see who's closer to being right.

Justin Fields rushing attempts: 62
Russel Wilson rushing attempts: 43

Total: 105

Herbert attempts: 69

Herbert stated all 17 games, so I assume that other QB attempts would be minimal.

So non-QB rushing attempts:

Steelers: 533 - 105 = 428
Chargers: 463 - 69 = 394

So we only ran 8.6% more than they did, not ~15%. Still appreciable. But half as much as I originally said because I didn't consider the difference in QB runs (good point insaniti!)

 

[insaniti]

It was not edited after it was quoted. The info on total rushing attempts is in the post that was quoted at the end of the 2nd line.

QB rushing is a good point. I didn't think of that when looking at total rushing attempts.

And if Najee does end up having no competition maybe they do run the wheels off him like we did in his rookie year. And maybe he continues to survive that kind of work load without missing time.

We all have guesses about what will happen. We'll have to wait a while to see who's closer to being right.

I actually had it quoted as you edited it and it changed as I was replying.

I don't know why you keep referencing his rookie year as a point of reference. Why choose his rookie year?

 

[NorthernBlitz]

I wonder if he'll keep his wonderful sub-4 ypc avg, going?

My guess is that he won't improve his YPC by much.

One of his virtues is that he's incredibly consistent.

And the Chargers had the same YPC that we did across the season. So he isn't going to a team with some dominant OL (like the Browns line that was blocking for Chubb at his peak).

 

[insaniti]

My guess is that he won't improve his YPC by much.

One of his virtues is that he's incredibly consistent.

And the Chargers had the same YPC that we did across the season. So he isn't going to a team with some dominant OL (like the Browns line that was blocking for Chubb at his peak).

No, he's going to a team with a legit threat at QB where you can't stack the box as much of as often as he faced here.

 

[NorthernBlitz]

I actually had it quoted as you edited it and it changed as I was replying.

I don't know why you keep referencing his rookie year as a point of reference. Why choose his rookie year?

Because the argument is that Najee gets totals because of volume.

His best year for totals was his rookie year.

Because he had 307 rushes and 74 receptions. Which is a very high workload in the modern NFL.

So to beat his best year in totals, I think he'd need to get close to his best year for touches (because he doesn't break the big runs that drive things like big totals or YPC).

And I don't think many teams are going to give him that opportunity.

But the Chargers currently seem to have basically no competition in the RB room. So maybe he'll get the opportunity there. But as we saw with Warren, RB is probably the best position to get good contributors with little or no "pedigree".

 

[NorthernBlitz]

No, he's going to a team with a legit threat at QB where you can't stack the box as much of as often as he faced here.

And having a QB probably means that you throw a higher percentage of plays.

But, you probably also have an offense that can get first downs. So you probably get more total plays too.

I think there's reasonable arguments on both sides. I just happen to think my argument is correct. We'll have to see what happens IRL.

And if I'm wrong, I won't have a problem admitting it.

Edited to add: I think it's worth noting again that they had the same YPC as us last year. So it's not like having Herbert under center gave them some huge run game advantage last year. Although as you've said, they had guys injured. But remember the Rats a few seasons ago (actually seemed like they had this run for a couple years) where they'd have RBs hurt all over the place and still had a good running game. I think having an elite rushing QB helps the run game more than an above average passing QB. But it's just a guess...I didn't crunch the numbers.