They have a lot of key players they’re counting on who are 30+ (40+ in one case) and/or haven’t been able to stay healthy, or are unknowns (Fautanu, Jones, 2-3 rookies). The chances of everything breaking their way are very small. Coupled with the fact that the Bengals and Chiefs are likely to bounce back, the Bills and Ravens are still there, not seeing it, even remotely.
Then there is the coaching staff, smothered by Tomlin’s desire to minimize risk in every aspect of the game, who will be easily out-schemed by the better teams come playoff time.
The Super Bowl they won was because of Ben and that team he inherited, including Arians and LeBeau. Ever since he took control of the operation 10+ years ago, they haven’t won a thing.