CBS' win / loss predictions for AFC.......................................... you guessed it

[Drink IRON City]

Here is the CBS prediction for the AFC.

Check it out, comments ?



AFC East

1. *Bills: 10-7

2. *Dolphins: 9-8

3. Jets: 9-8

4. Patriots: 5-12

AFC North

1. *Ravens: 12-5

2. *Bengals: 11-6

3. Browns: 7-10

4. Steelers: 6-11

AFC South

1. *Texans: 10-7

2. Jaguars: 9-8

3. Colts: 8-9

4. Titans: 6-11

AFC West

1. *Chiefs: 12-5

2. *Chargers: 9-8

3. Broncos: 7-10

4. Raiders: 6-11

AFC playoffs: 1. Chiefs; 2. Ravens; 3. Bills; 4. Texans; 5. Bengals; 6. Dolphins; 7. Chargers

NFC playoffs: 1. Rams; 2. Lions; 3. Cowboys; 4. Falcons; 5. 49ers; 6. Packers; 7. Eagles



I can see us going 6-11, but also see us coming down to the wire on NORTH champions and into the playoffs. Once our roster is established, I'll look closer at our season
prediction W / L



Salute the nation

 

[slashsteel]

I can’t see coming in last in the division. If they do that HC needs to exit stage left.

 

[madinsomniac]

How many seasons have they picked us last in the division now?

 

[steelhurt]

Well, it’s going to come down to QB play I think. If Russ and or Justin play well then the 6-11 prediction doesn’t hold water.
If this offense gets any kind of passing game that resembles an NFL passing game to go with our running game, then the offense will be dangerous.
Then add a defense that should be top five in the league then this team will be dangerous.
I think it all hinges on QB play whomever that turns out to be.

 

[Drink IRON City]

I can’t see coming in last in the division. If they do that HC needs to exit stage left.

I have to agree here, dead last doesn’t seem to happen very often with this team, in this division. In fact I’d venture to say we have North Champions more than North last place.

As for Tomlin, most here think he should have been replaced already. With his newly extension, I could see a last place finish and yet, same coach for next season.

Same goes if 1 and done in the playoffs.


Salute the nation

 

[Drink IRON City]

Well, it’s going to come down to QB play I think. If Russ and or Justin play well then the 6-11 prediction doesn’t hold water.
If this offense gets any kind of passing game that resembles an NFL passing game to go with our running game, then the offense will be dangerous.
Then add a defense that should be top five in the league then this team will be dangerous.
I think it all hinges on QB play whomever that turns out to be.

I hear yaz fully on the QB play. What I think really will make the difference is the differential of last year QB play vs this year. Add in the differential of last year’s OC compared to this year’s OC production. Those two concerns will determine outcome for the season.

We are assuming the “D” will be at least equal to last year, but we know that the “D” will be better than last year’s.



Salute the nation

 

[speedicut]

How are the Steelers going to get blown out in a wild card game with a 6-11 regular season record?

I fully expect 9-10 wins out of this team. Even with the tough schedule.

 

[BLITZ]

Good. I like zero expectations going into the season

 

[SteelerSask2]

They extoll Tomlin every year for 9-8 and say they will be 6-11 the next year. Tougher schedule no doubt but no way this team is not better then last year. No way.

 

[slashsteel]

They extoll Tomlin every year for 9-8 and say they will be 6-11 the next year. Tougher schedule no doubt but no way this team is not better then last year. No way.

Better OC(not hard to accomplish), better QB room, upgrade at ILB, better Oline group which will eventually show that but not necessarily game 1.

These are the areas that give the team a fighting chance to finish better than last years team.

My concern is they will load the box and double Pickens. That is where the W L grey area of prediction comes into play.

 

[madinsomniac]

My concern is they will load the box and double Pickens. That is where the W L grey area of prediction comes into play.

... dont overlook that every other wr with a realistic chance to make it, save for Fitzpatrick, runs under a 4.4 40.... so doing that strategy you suggested is opening up the deep ball with a QB who is one of the historical best deep ball guys..

 

[jitter77]

I think this team needs way more than better QB play. I think most importantly is coaching on the offensive side of the ball. Coaching never gave the offense a real chance last year. Najee was running into brick walls and opposing DBs never had to turn their backs. The line also did not play well especially early on. You could put Mahomes and Barry Sanders on this team and it wont matter if the playbook is not changed. If Smith uses a simple, but efficient gameplan we will already be miles ahead. Run the ball, use the TEs as weapons, use the RBs (not just Warren) as checkdowns and use more simple slants. I dont think it will take rocket science to fix the O just need to go back to the basics and build from there.

 

[slashsteel]

... dont overlook that every other wr with a realistic chance to make it, save for Fitzpatrick, runs under a 4.4 40.... so doing that strategy you suggested is opening up the deep ball with a QB who is one of the historical best deep ball guys..

True good point. I like your mindset.

 

[xjx]

We averaged 18 points per game last year. Even with new players that we perceive are better, how much can we improve? 20 points per game maybe?

We need quick strike capabilities. I think our wr is sub par NFL. It will be an interesting season.

 

[SteelerSask2]

They extoll Tomlin every year for 9-8 and say they will be 6-11 the next year. Tougher schedule no doubt but no way this team is not better then last year. No way.

Better OC(not hard to accomplish), better QB room, upgrade at ILB, better Oline group which will eventually show that but not necessarily game 1.

These are the areas that give the team a fighting chance to finish better than last years team.

My concern is they will load the box and double Pickens. That is where the W L grey area of prediction comes into play.

Very good analysis Slash. I think turnover ratio is going to be huge. Unless they land Aiyuk they won't be built for comebacks. But if they take care of ball they shouldn't need to much. Those big body sets and physical run game should wear on teams with linebackers built for pass coverage.

 

[madinsomniac]

True good point. I like your mindset.

I like this front office in regard to roleplayers... they fit what the team is doing..

 

[bermudasteel]

Here is the CBS prediction for the AFC.

Check it out, comments ?



AFC East

1. *Bills: 10-7

2. *Dolphins: 9-8

3. Jets: 9-8

4. Patriots: 5-12

AFC North

1. *Ravens: 12-5

2. *Bengals: 11-6

3. Browns: 7-10

4. Steelers: 6-11

AFC South

1. *Texans: 10-7

2. Jaguars: 9-8

3. Colts: 8-9

4. Titans: 6-11

AFC West

1. *Chiefs: 12-5

2. *Chargers: 9-8

3. Broncos: 7-10

4. Raiders: 6-11

AFC playoffs: 1. Chiefs; 2. Ravens; 3. Bills; 4. Texans; 5. Bengals; 6. Dolphins; 7. Chargers

NFC playoffs: 1. Rams; 2. Lions; 3. Cowboys; 4. Falcons; 5. 49ers; 6. Packers; 7. Eagles



I can see us going 6-11, but also see us coming down to the wire on NORTH champions and into the playoffs. Once our roster is established, I'll look closer at our season
prediction W / L



Salute the nation

This schedule is tougher than last season, but...

Remember this little nugget. We went 5-1 in the AFCN last year with 3 subpar QBs...

I wonder if the talking heads have taken THAT into consideration as they compiled this speculative bullshit???

 

[Stewey]

We are going 11 - 6. **** them.

 

[KentuckySteeler]

Mahommes just threw a behind-the-back pass to Kelce......and it was a planned play that Reid has been pushing for 2 years.

It just isn't fair.

 

[SteelerSask2]

Mahommes just threw a behind-the-back pass to Kelce......and it was a planned play that Reid has been pushing for 2 years.

It just isn't fair.

I just don't know how you can ever lose Kelce there. Take him away on that play and there is nothing.

 

[KentuckySteeler]

I just don't know how you can ever lose Kelce there. Take him away on that play and there is nothing.

lol. It's just that easy, isn't it? Just never lose Kelce. Live ever.

But he lost him. As happens over and over and over every game. And he tried the pass. And he completed it.

 

[SteelerSask2]

lol. It's just that easy, isn't it? Just never lose Kelce. Live ever.

But he lost him. As happens over and over and over every game. And he tried the pass. And he completed it.

Well I'd try to cover him. I mean he us a great tight end but he usnt faster and more agile then a top receiver. If a guy like Minkah Fitzpatrick can't lock up on him wtf is he being paid all that money for.

 

[KentuckySteeler]

Well I'd try to cover him. I mean he us a great tight end but he usnt faster and more agile then a top receiver. If a guy like Minkah Fitzpatrick can't lock up on him wtf is he being paid all that money for.

Well I'm just talking about them having a good coach that is creative. Nothing to do with Kelce. Have a good one.

 

[warriors42]

No worries. the NFL may hate the steelers but they love Tomlin, they will make sure we finish 8-8-1 or 9-7 the streak will live on.

 

[madinsomniac]

Im just going to quote myself from the 2023 postseason thread, rather than retype this or res that dead thread

Let me be 100% clear here... The 2023 AFC north is the single greatest division in NFL HISTORY...

Ok fine all four teams finished with Winning records. And 3 teams made the playoffs.. That is impressive... but nobody realizes how impressive... their schedule was absolutely brutal. Usually, divisions with triple playoff teams have some combination of
-having the 4th team be brutally bad
-having the AFC division they all play be really bad
-having the NFC division they all play be really bad
- having the mirror Opposition division they play the 17th game vs be mostly bad

In the case of the 2023 AFC north, they all played:

The AFC south, who had 3 teams with winning records, plus the Titans, and overall were the second best AFC division

The NFC west, who had Three teams with winning records and was tied for the best division in the NFC

And tge 17th game division was the NFC north who were tied with the NFC west for most nfc wins

The divisions looked like this win wise:

AFC North: 43
NFC West: 35
NFC North: 35
AFC South: 34
NFC East: 33
AFC East: 33
AFC West: 32
NFC South: 27

So they blew everyone out of the water in total wins, BUT the AFC north had a ridiculous strength of schedule as well.. SOS is a stat that tracks how much the teams you played won... so if you played 17 teams, and collectively they won 145 game, your team would have a SOS of .502... because their opponents could have theoretically won 289 games, but they did win 145. It shows how tough the schedule was...


the Bengals were 1st in the league in SOS with a .574...thats teams that had a total of 166 wins in a 17 game season... almost averaging a 10 win team a week... its insane...
and they played a first place schedule and only missed the playoffs because they went 1-5 in the Division... if they had beaten Cleveland in the first game or beaten us one of the two times they played us, they would be in the playoffs right now..

So SOS was
1 Cinci (.574 - 166)
2 Arizona (.561 -162)
3 Baltimore (.543 - 157)
4 Pittsburgh (.540 -156)
5 Cleveland (.536 - 155)
6 Jacksonville (.533 -154)
7 Chargers (.529 -153)
7 Rams (.529-153)
9 Carolina (.522 -151)
9 Tennessee (.522 - 151)
9 New England (.522 -151)
12 New york Giants (.512 -148)
12 Seattle (.512 - 148)
12 Washington (.512 - 148)

So the AFC north had 4 of the top 5 SOS's in the league... and all had winning records
...save for the Jags, Rams and seattle, all the rest were the really bad teams in the league with losing records... outside of the 3 afc north playoff teams, only one other team on this list made the playoffs....

Continued...

So lets also look at "Strength of Victory"

This is a stat that allows a simple breakdown of tge quality of a teams wins.
The gist is that you take the total number of wins from all the opponents a team beat, then divide that number by the total wins for that team, then divide that number by 17 ( the total number of games tge team played that year)

So if a team beat 5 other teams that season, and those five teams won a total of 25 games, the SOV would be 25/5 =5 .... 5/17 = .294
Now lets say another team also won 5 games, but those opponents they beat won a total of 50 games... that SOV would be 50/5 = 10..... 10/17=.588

Both teams won 5 games, but team two beat a better quality of team... so if you have a team that is beating up on scrub teams on the schedule, but losing to good ones, it is reflected in the SOV..

So lets look at an example from this year
5 teams finished with an 11-6 record.
Cleveland, Philly, Miami, Buffalo and KC
(The SOVs and total wins for beaten opponents)
Cleveland - (.513 - 96)
Philly -(.476 - 89)
Buffalo -(.471 - 88)
KC - (.428 - 80)
Miami(.358 -67)

So these 5 teams had 3 division winners in them, however Clevelands resume is far more accomplished for beating better teams..
Miami, on the other hand, has the fourth worst SOV in the league... they have fattened up on crappy teams and really haven't beaten good teams to compensate.

Getting a SOV over .500 and having a winning record is pretty difficult to do. Often a high SOV happens when a bad team with very few wins beats a couple really good teams and it inflates their SOV unnaturally high.. consistently beating good teams is a rare trait in the NFL... most teams that face a barrage of above average opponents lose a ton and dont finish over .500...

For instance this year only 7 teams had a SOV at .500 or higher...

One was Carolina... they only beat two teams... those two teams won a total of 17 games... so they hit .500 on the nose...

Another was New England. They only won 4 games. 2 were vs mediocre teams ( tge jets and Broncos... but the other two were vs playoff teams ( bills and steelers) this bumped the SOV to .529. Which is good enough to tie Baltimore for 4th in the league

And the best case is Arizona.. they led the league with a .588 SOV... they won 4 games, but three of those 4 games were playoff-bound, double digit victory teams...
now all that proves is that of the 4 win teams, the Cards were probable the best... but its far harder to maintain a high SOV with a high win total...


Which brings me to the AFC north

All 4 teams had a SOV over .500...

Arizona was tops at (.588 - 40) 4 wins,
the Steelers were 2nd at (.571 -97) 10 wins
Cinci was third at (.536 -82) 9 wins
Balimore (.529 - 117) tied for 4th with
New england (.529 -36) but the rats had a far more impressive stat line...
cleveland rounded out the top 5 at (.513 - 96)


What all this means is that the AFC north had 4 winning teams. That played the toughest schedules in the NFL and had the best quality wins.. you may never see results like this again in our lifetime...