Evaluating Snap Counts and Other Statistical Musings....

[deljzc]

I just finished logging snap counts for the season. Here are some thoughts, analysis and guesses to what's happening in our front office.

1. Tomlin-Butler are continuing the trend of fewer D-lineman snaps per game.

Final totals in 2015 indicated we averaged 2.30 defensive line snap counts per defensive play. Compare to 2011-2014: 2.61, 2.63, 2.44, 2.52. What is particularly interesting is it dropped considerably after the bye week as well as total defensive line snap counts per defensive play was 2.21 from weeks 12-17.

In addition, Tuitt and Heyward seem entrenched in their snap counts. As I predicted last season, Tuitt did indeed move right up with Heyward as being 85%+ participation when healthy. With both players under contract and likely earning 1.90 to 1.95 defensive line snap counts just between the two of them, the Steelers don't have that many snap counts to replace if they decide to let McLendon (379) and/or Thomas (187) walk in free agency. Don't expect the Steeler brass to worry or overspend at nose tackle.

2. Oh how the Linebackers have changed....

It's hard to make heads or tails of the "linebacker by committee" the Steelers decided to use in 2015. As recently as 2012-2013 you rarely, if ever, saw the Steelers go outside 5-deep in their linebacker usage on game day. This year the Steelers used seven linebackers with at least 10+ snaps on game days in 10 of 16 games (and often the only reason they didn't was because of injury). Even Timmons, who played every snap for the first 12 contests, started getting breaks down the stretch, and ended up at a team high 95% participation.

In total, eight linebackers had 190+ snaps and six had 450+.

It will be interesting to see if/when Shazier ever becomes a 100% participation player. The coaching staff appeared set to let that happen when he returned from injury Week 7. The 4 weeks before the bye, Shazier was at 90%. But film analysis during the bye must have spotted something because after the break, Shazier (who got dinged up vs. Seattle) only played 80% of snap counts in the last five weeks of the season with both Spence and Williams finding situational snaps in his place. Could be injury related. Could be performance.

As for the OLB situation, the snap counts were very evenly distributed this year between the big-4: Harrison (611), Dupree (563), Moats (554) and Jones (454). I don't think any of those numbers surprise anyone. Jones still isn't living up to a #17 overall pick. Harrison continues to defy age and play decent in the system. And people should be encouraged by rookie Dupree staying healthy and playing 50% of the year (I don't think anyone would have predicted that much more in August). As for what the Steelers do contract-wise with this group? Who knows. I can't imagine anyone flashed so much to demand a huge bump in snap counts next season which makes it likely we'll see a similar rotation next season.


3. The talent depleted secondary

I understand there are some nice things to say about our secondary this season. Butler dialed up some nice schemes and sacks and turnovers were big improvements. But when you look at shear talent (based on draft stock for instance), this group is awfully thin.

Total defensive back snap counts per play hit 4.73. Not as high as the year we went full-time nickle in 2013 when Foote got hurt (that was 5.05) but more than other Lebeau seasons. The drop in defensive line counts added here and proved we continue to play nickle/dime more and more in the new NFL.

Similar to many other years, the bye-week self evaluation yielded some changes.

Prior to week 12, you saw the Steelers stick with a very simple formula: The starting corners were Gay/Blake. The starting safeties were Allen/Mitchell. And the nickle back was Cockrell. For the entire first 12 games of the year there was no change to this except for when Will Allen was hurt and next-man-up Robert Golden just filled in.

After the bye, however, things got very weird. Similar to linebacker, all of a sudden a "defensive back by committee" started to form as Brandon Boykin started seeing considerable game-day action. What used to be only 3 CB's seeing snaps on game day now became four (and often none being the favorite). Boykin went from getting 21 snaps TOTAL the first 11 games to getting 70% participation the last 5 weeks. I think the Seattle game must have got someone in Tomlin/Butler's doghouse because they certainly changed things up after that game allowing 39 points.

Overall, everyone knows the group lacks talent. For all their try-hard effort the group is still:

Mike Mitchell, mid-free agent, getting 95% participation
Will Allen, a 33-year-old journeyman, getting 75%
Robert Golden, undrafted, getting 35%

William Gay, is-what-he-is, getting 96%
Antwon Blake, undrafted, getting 83%
Ross Cockrell, street free agent, getting 61%
Brandon Boykin, getting 25%

That's just not going to cut it......

 

[slashsteel]

for me it was simple if they thought a player could be productive they got more snaps

if you proved otherwise you got less

LBers had one mediocre, one rookie, one declining, and one potential bust.

secondary you had Gay and little else.

So they rotate mediocre because tired and mediocre probably would result in even shittier play.......

 

[SteelerFan448]

Good break down, del. I think this shows us where the Steelers should focus their attention this offseason.

They aren't going to use a NT much, but need an alternative to McCullers, who saw less action as the season dwindled down. Tuitt and Heyward are young and two of the best defenders on the field, but you want those guys fresh for 16 games and the playoffs. Another solid option who can play end and maybe shift in to play NT may not be a bad option. You want to maximize their effectiveness, especially if they are going to be part of your pass rush.

The Steelers have four starting-caliber linebackers on the inside. Williams is a nice physical presence who you like to see in on obvious run situations. Meanwhile, I really want to see the point where Shazier is playing every snap, but given his injury issues, a rotation is probably the smart approach. The situation at OLB is still in bad shape. Jones began to flash the ability to be a decent run and pass defender, but isn't the dynamic pass rusher that the team was hoping for when they drafted him. They can't continue to depend on Harrison to get that many snaps and really need Dupree to be the top rusher next year. I still think this is a high priority position to address.

While we saw growth from the secondary down the stretch, it is still unacceptable what they are sending out. Gay is their top cornerback and should be their No. 3. Allen and Golden are both backup caliber. When you look at the depth chart, they have a lot of nice 3s and 4s, but need some 1s and 2s in there.

 

[deljzc]

Based on snap counts, there are very few players on the defense the coaches feel "can't be taken off the field" because of talent.

I think they are happy and set with Tuitt and Heyward, but are either pro-bowlers? If they had 0-99 rankings are they high-80's, low-90's? I don't think they are upper 90's, elite players. Both solid. Would rank Timmons right there in the same rating but the last 5 games where Timmons started to get some reps taken away is a bit worrisome.

Shazier is an enigma. Flashes potential to be a 93-95 ranked player but obviously film study of the coaches finds some down and distances he's not suited for and they sub him out.

Besides those 4, you are still in the development stages for Dupree and Golson. That's it. No one else is "can't take off the field" talent.

If I had to give a rating to every defender with meaningful snap counts and maybe a potential rating and whether they are headed up/down:

Heyward - 93 Rated - 92-94 potential range - at his peak right now.
Tuitt - 90 Rated - 91-93 potential range - going up
McLendon - 85 Rated - 83-85 scouted range - level to down
McCullers - 80 Rated - 84-87 scouted range - going up but you don't know if he'll hit his scouted potential at this point

J. Jones - 85 Rated - 87-89 Scouted Range - Think he's maxed out but could have a season that squeaks into the upper 87-88 range if things fall his way
J. Harrison - 89 Rated - 97-98 peak a long time ago - he just keeps hanging on and even 90% of his former self is pretty good
Timmons - 92 Rated - 90-92 Rated Scouted - He's probably as good as he'll ever be right now.
Shazier - 90 Rated - 93-95 Scouted Range - Needs to stay healthy. Needs to be more consistent. Needs to force the coach's hands not to take him off the field.
Moats - 84 Rated - 83-85 Scouted Range
Dupree - 85 Rated - 92-94 Scouted Range - Not bad for the rookie but needs to build on the season and get into 87-89 type performances by mid/end of next season.
Spence - 83 Rated - 83-85 Range - Injury probably took a few ticks off potential. Solid backup and special teamer at this point only

W. Gay - 89 Rated - 89 Range - Probably exceeded scouted range late in career with moxie, work ethic and experience. But that can't last forever. Only a matter of time before his rating starts to tick south.
Blake - 83 Rated - 80-85 Range - As an undrafted guy, that's what you are until you prove otherwise. His play is probably low 80's and will remain there.
Cockrell - 83 Rated - Ditto
Boykins - 83 Rated - 83-85 Range potential

Mitchell - 88 Rated - 87-89 Range - Solid starter at a shallow position for talent (both in the league and in the draft). But this is sort of where he's at.
W. Allen - 86 Rated - Tomlin has squeezed everything out of this guy you can. For a year-to-year free agent in his 30's he's contributed a DAMN lot of snaps to this team over the past 2-3 seasons.
Golden - 83 Rated

Again.... as a GM, I think you try to have a plan to get an entire team of players rated 90+ on defense. Might not happen. Might not all time up right. Might not all stay healthy. But you build and plan and develop talent with the intent to have 90's all over the place. This defense kind of lacks that right now, especially in the secondary. Maybe Golson is a 90+ guy (I didn't scout him that way, the Steelers did). They can add another or two in the draft maybe.

 

[madinsomniac]

The dlineman trend is consistent with teams not focusing on the run as much... The spread, coupled with few developed guys coming out of college, is effectively killing the traditional NT. Its also true with bigger ILBs... they are becoming a rarity in the league.

The linebacker situation is predicated on talent. Dupree, A rookie, wasn't getting all the snaps off of Moats... Harrison isn't a full time player at his age. Jones hasn't wrested the job from him, and doesn't seem to have his level of talent, but has shown enough to still get snaps to develop.

ILB is different... there are 4 guys who have starter level talent there. Timmons is a pro bowl caliber ILB and Shazier looks like he could be one. Spence is the starter we thought we were getting pre knee surgery, stuck behind the other two, and Williams is by far the best run stopping front 7 player on the team, like Larry Foote before him... he is solid and dependable. All of those guys deserve playing time.


The secondary is proof that the team values physicality over coverage. Blakes one attribute is his hitting, Boykin is better in every other area, and golden is a superior playmaking safety to Allen, and better in coverage. Both have an inordinate amount of good plays per snap played, but really were limited in those snaps

 

[ark steel]

I don't think Cockrell is a street free agent. He was picked early 4th (I think) and on the Bills PS, wasn't he?

 

[slashsteel]

I don't think Cockrell is a street free agent. He was picked early 4th (I think) and on the Bills PS, wasn't he?

they re-upped him for a year

 

[Fiji Mariner]

Blake is one if the weaker corners in the league. To give him a rating over 80 seems homerish Del.

To say Blake is a hitter? Wth, one of the worst tacklers I've seen in recent memory. I don't think any WR fears his 180 frame coming up to throw a shoulder, just a slight bump and the WR continues on his way. I can't really remember Blake getting guys to the ground with any consistency much less lighting anyone up.

 

[deljzc]

Remember any 0-99 scale for players in the NFL is a bell curve.

There are plenty of 83-84 caliber players out there. Plenty.

I didn't watch any games this season, so you guys can tell me what you think of Cockrell - Boykins - Blake and their huge snap counts this year in the secondary. Who is Golson going to push out first? Are we going to keep all three AND Golson?

I am just as concerned with the Will Allen - Robert Golden situtation at safety as well. Will Allen can't keep bailing Tomlin out at the position. If Shamarko Thomas isn't earning snaps now, when is he ever?

Dorian Grant has ONE snap this year (that's hard to do). Is he going to make the roster? Where did he play his one snap? Is he an outside corner, inside corner, safety?

I have to figure they dip into the secondary during the draft at least twice again. And maybe two in their first 4 picks.

 

[AggieSteel]

I actually think Boykin deserves a higher rating. I have no idea why he wasn't on the field the first 12 weeks, but he was maybe our best corner right there with Gay when he was on the field. Rarely missed tackles, broke up a lot of passes.. He's very very solid in coverage

 

[slashsteel]

I actually think Boykin deserves a higher rating. I have no idea why he wasn't on the field the first 12 weeks, but he was maybe our best corner right there with Gay when he was on the field. Rarely missed tackles, broke up a lot of passes.. He's very very solid in coverage

I guess the word what was mentioned in a few threads was he wasn't learning the D. Aka above the neck issues..

 

[AggieSteel]

I guess the word what was mentioned in a few threads was he wasn't learning the D. Aka above the neck issues..

Ah I see thanks for the info.. Now I definitely hope we resign him.. Now that he knows the offense, we need him!

 

[SteelerFan448]

Blake is one if the weaker corners in the league. To give him a rating over 80 seems homerish Del.

To say Blake is a hitter? Wth, one of the worst tacklers I've seen in recent memory. I don't think any WR fears his 180 frame coming up to throw a shoulder, just a slight bump and the WR continues on his way. I can't really remember Blake getting guys to the ground with any consistency much less lighting anyone up.

Just because you assign a style to a player doesn't mean they are necessarily good at it. Blake is a "hitter" when it comes to how he plays and it resulted in some good plays. It also resulted in plenty of bad ones because he isn't a particularly good hitter compared to some of the other cornerbacks in the league.

 

[topseed]

Remember any 0-99 scale for players in the NFL is a bell curve.

There are plenty of 83-84 caliber players out there. Plenty.

I didn't watch any games this season, so you guys can tell me what you think of Cockrell - Boykins - Blake and their huge snap counts this year in the secondary. Who is Golson going to push out first? Are we going to keep all three AND Golson?

I am just as concerned with the Will Allen - Robert Golden situtation at safety as well. Will Allen can't keep bailing Tomlin out at the position. If Shamarko Thomas isn't earning snaps now, when is he ever?

Dorian Grant has ONE snap this year (that's hard to do). Is he going to make the roster? Where did he play his one snap? Is he an outside corner, inside corner, safety?

I have to figure they dip into the secondary during the draft at least twice again. And maybe two in their first 4 picks.

Welcome back, deljzc.

Cockrell is average/serviceable. Should be a nickel/dime guy. Outperformed Blake when given the opportunity.

Blake, to me, is horrendous. I cannot understand why he was on the field as much as he was to begin the season, or why he continued to start late in the year. He can't cover and he can't tackle. Once in a while, he'll come up with a "splash play" that falls into his lap.

Boykin getting less than 2 snaps per game for the first 11 weeks was a travesty, in my opinion. I don't care about the "above the neck" rumors, he was one of the best slot corners in the league with the Eagles, and he played the position just fine for the Steelers once Tomlin finally got him out there.

The safety situation isn't good. Mitchell is average. Allen is average and old. Nothing stands out about Golden. Thomas doesn't see the field other than special teams.

My hope is that the re-sign Boykin to a long-term deal, and Golson comes back strong and eliminates Blake from the picture. I like Doran Grant, but know nothing about him since they refused to give him snaps. I'd highly recommend those 2 early picks for the secondary.

 

[Xc944]

The dlineman trend is consistent with teams not focusing on the run as much... The spread, coupled with few developed guys coming out of college, is effectively killing the traditional NT. Its also true with bigger ILBs... they are becoming a rarity in the league.

The linebacker situation is predicated on talent. Dupree, A rookie, wasn't getting all the snaps off of Moats... Harrison isn't a full time player at his age. Jones hasn't wrested the job from him, and doesn't seem to have his level of talent, but has shown enough to still get snaps to develop.

ILB is different... there are 4 guys who have starter level talent there. Timmons is a pro bowl caliber ILB and Shazier looks like he could be one. Spence is the starter we thought we were getting pre knee surgery, stuck behind the other two, and Williams is by far the best run stopping front 7 player on the team, like Larry Foote before him... he is solid and dependable. All of those guys deserve playing time.


The secondary is proof that the team values physicality over coverage. Blakes one attribute is his hitting, Boykin is better in every other area, and golden is a superior playmaking safety to Allen, and better in coverage. Both have an inordinate amount of good plays per snap played, but really were limited in those snaps

Timmons isn't close to a pro bowl ilb. Do you watch other games? He's just not and not close

 

[Zack_of_Steel]

I think it's possible that the decline in NT usage for our team is not due to league trends, but rather that we simply don't have a good enough NT. Look at the usage for Dontari Poe and their 3-man line in KC or Damon Harrison and the Jets, or the Denver DL. And as you can see, these boys aren't always just in for running downs.

Dontari Poe

Damon Harrison

Sylvester Williams

When we had Hampton, even in his waning years, we used him at a clip analogous to these three powerhouse 3-4 defenses.

Hampton / Hoke / (McClendon in '12)

/ Link

McClendon / Al Woods in '13 / McCullers

/ Link / Link

 

[deljzc]

Kansas City still averaged only about 2.43 defensive lineman per defensive play last season based on above (2633 total defensive lineman snap counts - 1082 defensive plays). That is very close to what the Steeler did in years past. Just because Poe stays on the field as one of TWO defensive lineman, doesn't change the growing philosophical change.

The Jets have to playing a 4-lineman system because they average 3.24 defensive lineman per defensive play last season (3465 defensive lineman snaps in 1068 plays). That's too many possible for a 3-4 defense.

The Broncos had 2.70 defensive lineman per defensive play. That is on the high side for 3-4 defenses (higher than the Steelers ever have done since I've been measuring in 2011).

I agree that talent dictates who plays. The Jets have three, good, 1st rounders (Wilkinson, Richardson, Williams) that have emerged and need snap counts on the D-line. They took away snaps from LB's in order to find them room (add up the total LB counts above - not close to 4/play). The Broncos are very well balanced. They have talent everywhere. The secondary is good - Harris/Talib/Roby/Ward. They still have Von Miller at his prime. Elway's done a hell of a job building talent on that defense (makes you wonder why we make it so hard).

The Chiefs are a lot like us in their snap count usage. They just keep Poe as a DE/DT in a 2-man front a lot to keep his snap counts higher.

 

[Fiji Mariner]

Hoke mention, nice. I think Hoke was better player than McLendon and he was a backup. That's probably a large part of the reason we saw such limited NT snaps this year.

 

[SteelerFan448]

Hoke mention, nice. I think Hoke was better player than McLendon and he was a backup. That's probably a large part of the reason we saw such limited NT snaps this year.

Hoke was probably one of our best backups in recent memory. We were lucky to have a guy like that who didn't want to leave for a chance at a starting job. Improving the depth on the line to have a third legitimate defensive end and a starting-caliber nose tackle should be on the offseason checklist.

 

[scstillerfan]

They had Hoke and Beard as backups for a long time. That tells you how good our DL was for several years.