How Leonardo DiCaprio Can Persuade Me on Climate Change

[CharlesDavenport]

Great blog post by Dilbert creator Scott Adams - http://blog.dilbert.com/post/158549646496/how-leonardo-dicaprio-can-persuade-me-on-climate

Worth a quick read. Conclusion -

My point is that Leonardo DiCaprio would have a tough time persuading me that climate science is both real and serious. But it isn’t his fault, because science has packaged climate science to look like a hoax, and sent him out to sell it. I respect and admire DiCaprio for his heart on this matter, and his effort on behalf of the planet. But science has failed him by giving him hoax-looking sales collateral.

 

[Superman]

if it were true, he'd have not flown an eyebrow threader from NYC to Hollywood aboard his private jet to do his brows before the last "awards" show.

 

[Steeltime]

Good link in the post:

Look for "global climate model" (including the quotation marks) on Google Scholar. You will find 37,700 papers. A big fraction of them really does contain some prediction, often many predictions that aren't quite the same. So it's obvious that some of these graphs will be close enough to the observed changes of the temperatures. Scott Adams' comparison of this methodology to the financial scams is absolutely justified.

Some models do a good job, some models do a bad job. You may always choose the better ones once you know the actual data that should have been predicted. But you may still be picking just the "lucky ones", not the "smart ones". This is an absolutely fundamental problem that simply has to be addressed.

The scientific method addresses it because it does something that these "climate modelers" don't: It is actually formulating well-defined hypotheses or theories or laws and it is testing their predictions separately from other hypotheses. The formulation and verification of particular statements is really a key part of the scientific method – look at the first chart on the Wikipedia page.

The "climate modelers" simply aren't doing that. They are not formulating any well-defined hypotheses or laws – so they are not testing these laws, especially not in a way that would fairly treat different competing hypotheses. So what they're doing simply isn't science. It fails to be science not because of some controversial, newly created requirements what science should be doing. It's not science simply because there are no hypotheses and laws that are formulated and tested. And the formulation and testing of hypotheses are surely defining procedures of the scientific method.

http://motls.blogspot.com/2017/03/selection-of-climate-model-survivors.html