March 8 GOP Primary Primer (HI, ID, MI, MS)
- Thread starter Spike
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So trump loses Hawaii by a bunch and comes in a close second in Idaho, crushes in Mississippi and likely wins michigan.... got it!
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I think Trump can win Idaho too.
A poll released Monday by Idaho Politics Weekly shows Donald Trump leading amongst Idaho Republicans with 30 percent of the votes.
Ted Cruz came in second with 19 percent, Marco Rubio finished with 16 percent, and John Kasich 5 percent.
http://www.ktvb.com/news/politics/trump-leads-in-polls-before-idahos-primary/72737808
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Why is Trump losing Idaho, he's ahead there! Hawaii is a very blue state with few electoral votes. However Michigan can be swung back to the Republicans, and if Trump wins there as forecasted he has a real argument to be the best man to defeat Clinton.
Michigan, Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Virgina will decide this election! Trump already won Virgina among the Republicans. The Republicans likely need to win 4 of these states to defeat Clinton with Ohio and Florida being must haves.
In closed primaries Trump underperforms from what the polls say... Polls have been rather off a lot this year, like in Iowa, where trump was supposed to roll to a win and he lost. Again, who has time for polls? I hang up on every one ever... most voters dont actually make time to answer these things, so you get a slanted perspective. They give you an idea, but any one of a dozen things can have biased it wrong.
Frankly, unless the prospect poll in thinned down some soon, trump needs to be near perfect from here on out to garner enough electorial votes to stop the establishment from undercutting his nomination... he has to win Florida and ohio, which is why neither Rubio nor Kasich has bailed yet... most of the rest are divided up so having 5 guys splitting votesmeans that while none will overtake him... he probably doesnt get to the magic number either
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If Trump is the nominee he will lose all of those states except possibly Florida, to Hillary. Write it down.
actually, Trump does worse in caucuses and better in primaries. I haven't seen polls from Hawaii but it is a blue state. He does better in blue states and Hawaiians can join the Rep party on the day of the caucus. That has helped Trump in other states. I'd be surprised if he was blown away in Hawaii. Hopefully, he wins by double digits in Michigan and Mississippi. He needs at least 80 delegates today.
I just don't see that at all. Trump will easily beat her in Florida and Ohio. He will probably win Virginia and Michigan as well. I can even see him winning PA. Polls there had him beating Hillary previously. Not sure where they stand now.
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Obama's saving of the auto industry and the Repub Governor screw up of the Flint water will
easily put Michigan in Dems column in general election.
Also Jindal so screwed up Louisiana, that it wouldn't surprise me if Hillary took that in
general election.
easily put Michigan in Dems column in general election.
Also Jindal so screwed up Louisiana, that it wouldn't surprise me if Hillary took that in
general election.
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Trump is going down in flames, I just hope it's in the primary rather than the general.
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Obama and Snyder are going to be the candidates?
****, I need to start paying attention to this election. I had no idea either of those guys was even running.
If Trump is the nominee, barring an independent run by a republican, he will win... The republican hate for Hillary is absurd, and while the hardcore Dems hate Trump, there are huge patches of moderates who like him... I see polls that put Trump as a loser, but I see formulated projections that always show him as an easy winner.
People have to remember having a president that was hated by one side coming off of two terms tends to have an apathy effect on the president's own party and a high turnout by the opposition... it also leads to candidates who voters wouldn’t have usually backed getting votes… EVEN AFTER THE PEOPLE SAY THEY WOULDN’T VOTE FOR THEM…
Remember Obama’s first run… its often ignored that there is a high percentage of rather racist democrats… and if you don’t believe me stop by southern Pittsburgh and I will introduce you to many. I heard plenty of remarks about how they wouldn’t vote for him when they hoped Hilary would be the candidate last time, but they did when push came to shove because they hated the Bush regime ever more so than their personal biases….
McCain wasn’t hated by Dems either… he was a Moderate in every sense of the word… Hillary is HATED by republicans, and while the anti trump statement is strong now, the lemmings will vote against her en mass come election day. If they don’t have an output except Trump, he will get their votes.
Many if not most of The Bern-Star voters, on the other hand, will likely go the apathetic route and not turn out. Trump may very well get the hardcore anti-establishment sect of that vote too.
There are other factors too: Trump polls better with union workers than Hillary. They are terrified of that particular attraction.
I just think when you look big picture, there is way more of a concern that trump follows Obama than the dems are letting on… if they believed he was a non threat to actually win, they would never ever be attacking all at once on him.
But the issue is trump has distanced himself from the Establishment enough that the govener tie may not matter, and on the other hand his trade agreement stance can effectively point out that while the Dems bailed out a failing auto industry, it also put in place the mechanisms that made it fail in the first place... and those agreements that damned that industry because of cheap parts and labor overseas were directly tied to the clintons...
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How does getting cheaper parts thru cheaper labor overseas hurt the US auto industry? Businesses
have to do what keeps them competitive in a globalized economy. If Trump was ever elected President
he would destroy our economy. You either participate in the future or go out of business. The world
isn't going to follow as the US goes backwards.
have to do what keeps them competitive in a globalized economy. If Trump was ever elected President
he would destroy our economy. You either participate in the future or go out of business. The world
isn't going to follow as the US goes backwards.
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Trump appeals strongly to a very small group of voters...1/3 of a Republican party which makes up only 23% of the electorate. Dems hate him. Independents hate him. Women hate him. Blacks and Hispanics hate him. He is wildly popular among angry middle aged Republican white guys. If we learned nothing from the Romney debacle it's that we can't win elections that way. It's certainly not going to win him purple states like Virginia, PA and Ohio.
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Yeah, polls had Romney winning PA too.
Purely anecdotal of course but I live in the Philly suburbs and Trump is a JOKE here. I live in an extremely conservative county and I have yet to meet a person who would consider voting for him. The days where the backwoods redneck vote could push someone over the top here are done. I think a lot of you are underestimating the fact that the anti-Trump sentiment is at least as strong as the pro-Trump sentiment.
this is blatently false. I travel the US. the cross sectional appeal of a celebrity businessman is far far stronger than people are led to believe. Hardcore democrats wont get it like the Hardcore republicans didnt when Obama ran. the guy who runs as a Republican is getting 99% of the republican vote whether they like him or not. The vast majority of the democrats wont vote this year... thats what the apathy year does for a party in control of the presidency, and the middle of the democrat party doesnt hate trump nearly as much as CNN or Fox would have one believe. there Are poeple who focus on the fiscal matters, and they think he is a good thing... there are those who really feel he is going to swing very liberal once he has the nomination, there are those who want to blow up the process and he seems like a great way to do that... and there are people from both side who really think his extremist rhetoric are a great idea......
I think he is being vastly undersold as a threat here. and thats before the realization that once hillary gets to the national campaign Trump is going to bring up the dozen or so things she has done, even back to Vince foster and Whitewater and probably bring voter apathy for her to an all time high..
I think Spike's feeling he will roll is far closer to the truth if the republicans dont do something drastic to stop him.
the thing is Hillary isnt going to inspire voters at this point... she is a retread with skeletons in her closet. Trump is getting the extremist votes, and the republican votes, and the celebrity worshippers, and the millions who hate immigration, and thats a way bigger sect than we care to imagine, and then we have the issue that hillary's poll numbers have always been near 0 for protection vs terrorism, and there is a great underlying fear about that...
Then factor in the millions of gun owners who are democrats... bernie is making her run far more left than she wants to in this thing... she has just made comment further left than any frontrunner on gun control...
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We'll just have to wait and see. If a guy who is strongly disliked by 2/3 of the population can win the general election I'll come back here and gladly eat my words. But I think some of you are in for a huge letdown if he is the nominee.
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Sounds like Hillary who has a near 60% negative rating. Trump can bring out his base better than anyone. And he can throw a political punch as well as anyone. Once he digs into Hillary she's toast as the facts will be damning, and when Hillary raises her voice, when loses whatever small amount of charisma she has.
I would say Trump's ability to pull in independents and not traditional voters is an understated strength.
If we were to count all the votes in both parties, Trump towers above them all. Democratic turnout is much lighter than the Republicans so far. Non-incumbent elections show the one who draws the biggest crowds almost always win.
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Many conservatives believe Trump would kill conservatism if not the republican party in general. Many will vote
against him in 2016 to protect their agenda. In exit polls during Virginias open primary, some Democrats admitted voting for Trump
just to give the Dems the easiest opponent in November.
against him in 2016 to protect their agenda. In exit polls during Virginias open primary, some Democrats admitted voting for Trump
just to give the Dems the easiest opponent in November.
is this why Trump's clothing line is being dragged through the mud?
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No, it's being dragged through the mud because he's a massive hypocrite. You don't ***** and moan about being unable to compete with China when you are part of the problem.
It wouldnt be a letdown... i have no affinity for the guy at all... I'm just an independent who expects the worse from those two parties at all times... I look at the trends and see the worse... i warned the repubs when this thing started and ill warn the Dems now... their politics have created this mess... Thjey pushed a third of this country to the breaking point and then are giving them a poor choice for their way to vent at the establishment.
Personally, if i believed in the death penalty, id want it applied to all the hardcore members of both parties... I think they have enabled too many crimes against the people of this country with their asinine petty politics.
