On Obama, Trump and Manufacturing Jobs

[Tim Steelersfan]

Yes, we all know that Trump has done more for US Manufacturing jobs in the past month than Obama has done in 8 years (those of us who look at facts). But how much of an impact has each had, respectively, already?

Obama’s Record on Manufacturing Jobs
http://www.factcheck.org/2016/12/obamas-record-on-manufacturing-jobs/

White House Press Secretary Josh Earnest said that 805,000 manufacturing jobs have been created since President Barack Obama has been in office. In fact, there has been a net loss of 303,000 manufacturing jobs since January 2009.

Earnest made the statement during a press briefing on Nov. 30. Carrier, a heating, air-conditioning and refrigeration company, earlier that day had announced a deal with President-elect Donald Trump so that the company would “continue to manufacture gas furnaces in Indianapolis, in addition to retaining engineering and headquarters staff, preserving more than 1,000 jobs.”

Earnest called the announcement “good news,” but claimed that Trump would have to make another 804 deals like that to equal the number of manufacturing jobs created while Obama has been president.

As Earnest noted, there is a difference between a job that is created and a job that is saved. But there are also jobs that are lost — which Earnest ignores.

The president’s press secretary comes up with 805,000 by counting job growth since February 2010, which was the low point for manufacturing jobs in the U.S. following the Great Recession from December 2007 to June 2009. The administration frequently uses February 2010 as a start date when calculating manufacturing jobs, as it did on Aug. 8 to announce Manufacturing Day.

But Obama was president long before February 2010.

Manufacturing employment was 12,258,000 in October 2016, according to the most recent estimates from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. That’s down 303,000 from the number employed in January 2009, the same month that Obama was sworn in as president.

To make his point, Earnest just ignored all of the job losses that occurred during the first 13 months of Obama’s presidency.

--------------------------------------------------

Meanwhile, not even President of the United States yet, and Trump can point to Carrier, Ford and Fiat-Chrysler, all of which have decided to stay in the USA, invest in plants in the US, and hire American workers.

Fiat, being the latest:

https://www.yahoo.com/news/fiat-chrysler-announces-creation-2-000-us-jobs-223258787.html

Fiat Chrysler announces creation of 2,000 US jobs

Washington (AFP) - Fiat Chrysler announced it was creating 2,000 jobs in the United States, coming as President-elect Donald Trump has been publicly scolding automakers for investing in Mexico.

The American-Italian firm will invest $1 billion by 2020 in two of its factories in the Midwestern states of Michigan and Ohio, where the new jobs will be based, the company said in a statement coming on the eve of the Detroit auto show.

Trump, who campaigned on promises of creating industrial jobs in the American heartland, took to Twitter this past week to blast automakers with operations or plans to build plants in Mexico.

He slammed General Motors for making some of its Chevy Cruze models south of the border, and Toyota, which is building a new plant there.

On Tuesday, US automaker Ford announced it was scrapping construction of a $1.6 billion plant in Mexico to instead invest in the United States and create 700 jobs, citing a "vote of confidence" in the economic agenda of the incoming president.

 

[Spike]

I said

HEEL!


Toyota announces $10 billion U.S. investment days after Trump warning

Chalk up another win for the president-elect?

Toyota is set to make a $10 billion capital investment in the U.S. over the next five years, Toyota Motor North America chief executive Jim Lentz said during an interview at the Detroit auto show, Reuters reported.

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/201...nvestment-days-after-trump-warns-company.html

-------------------

good pup

 

[Tibs]

Tim, are you really falling for this from Trump, this early? Really?

Donald Trump had nothing to do with our new US jobs, Fiat Chrysler reveals
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/w...s-suvs-trucks-sergio-marchionne-a7517986.html

Fiat Chrysler has said thousands of news jobs it announced in the US is not related to Donald Trump - despite a series of tweets in which the President-elect appears to take credit - and that the firm's chief executive had not even spoken to him.

The car manufacturer announced its plan on Sunday to spend $1 billion to expand plants in Ohio and Michigan and create 2,000 more jobs in the country.

A news release issued by the company stated the move was part of a plan that had been first conceived in 2015.

 

[Supersteeler]

Tim, are you really falling for this from Trump, this early? Really?

Donald Trump had nothing to do with our new US jobs, Fiat Chrysler reveals
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/w...s-suvs-trucks-sergio-marchionne-a7517986.html

So why were these things not happening before the election? That's a lot of coincidences. I think it has more to do with the idea that the people in charge of our government previously have always looked down their noses at blue color workers and don't put one iota of effort into trying to create any of those types of jobs. All of a sudden for some mysterious reason those types of industries look like a much safer bet for investment.

 

[Spike]

Trump's plans could double US GDP growth by 2018, Deutsche Bank says

President-elect Donald Trump's policies have the potential to trigger a new age in U.S. economic growth that could serve as a global template, according to a Deutsche Bank forecast.

Gross domestic product growth would be double its current level under an agenda that cuts regulations across a broad swath of critical sectors, enacts tax reform that slashes personal and corporate taxes, and calls for at least $1 trillion in improvements for bridges, roads and other public projects.

"This policy mix has the potential of reigniting productivity growth and raising U.S. growth potential," David Folkerts-Landau, chief economist at Deutsche Bank, said in a report for clients. "While Trump introduces higher uncertainty, this is better than the near certainty of the continuation of a mediocre status quo."

http://www.cnbc.com/2017/01/09/dona...le-gdp-growth-by-2018-deutsche-bank-says.html

 

[Tibs]

So why were these things not happening before the election? That's a lot of coincidences.

I suggest we wait six months or so to see what's really happening, or not happening. Again, I want the US economy to succeed, regardless who happens to be the president. But this idea that we're sitting here patting ourselves on the back early in January, even before the inauguration, seems ridiculous and comical to me. I'd much rather see the president - and congress - get to work on creating jobs and introducing sensible legislation than the type of twitter braggado that we're seeing. But this is Trump, he can't help himself. I truly believe he is his own worst enemy.

 

[Supersteeler]

I suggest we wait six months or so to see what's really happening, or not happening. Again, I want the US economy to succeed, regardless who happens to be the president. But this idea that we're sitting here patting ourselves on the back early in January, even before the inauguration, seems ridiculous and comical to me. I'd much rather see the president - and congress - get to work on creating jobs and introducing sensible legislation than the type of twitter braggado that we're seeing. But this is Trump, he can't help himself. I truly believe he is his own worst enemy.

Fair enough, we shall see.

 

[Steeltime]

Gross domestic product growth would be double its current level ...

Hence, the genius of the outgoing President, driving the GDP growth to zero.

You know, 2 x 0 = still 0.

Genius, I tell 'ya.

 

[21STEELERS21]

The reality is manufacturing is heading into the beginning of the robotics era. A company could pledge a 10 billion investment and
that could all go to putting robots to work and laying off humans.

 

[Tim Steelersfan]

The reality is manufacturing is heading into the beginning of the robotics era. A company could pledge a 10 billion investment and
that could all go to putting robots to work and laying off humans.

Let's say that notion were true - 100% of it. Are you also saying there's no benefit to having a 100% robotic plant here in the US?

 

[deljzc]

Exactly... if they were truly 100% automated, it wouldn't matter a damn bit of difference where they are built except for construction costs.

 

[Tim Steelersfan]

Exactly... if they were truly 100% automated, it wouldn't matter a damn bit of difference where they are built except for construction costs.

We would still want the plant here vs. overseas. There would still be benefits. Robots are run and programmed by? *drum roll* - people. Servicing the robots, maintaining the computer systems, programming the robots, writing new code, firmware updates, and on and on. Then there is shipping supplies and product to and from the plant, the revenue from the plant to the local utility companies (heating, lighting, cooling) to run the plant, the leasing of factory space, the lightbulbs, and a thousand other things that involve revenue flow in and out of the plant.

21 over-simplified this down to just jobs. Even though the jobs are the holy grail, there's still substantial impact even if not one job were created by having the plant here.

As with anything else, jobs will shift. If we ever get to 100% robotics in some plants, those manufacturing jobs shift into other jobs that crop up as a result of automated plants.

 

[Tim Steelersfan]

The reality is manufacturing is heading into the beginning of the robotics era. A company could pledge a 10 billion investment and
that could all go to putting robots to work and laying off humans.

By the way 21, when was the last time you were in a manufacturing plant? What do you know about this subject, save for what you read in Huffington Post?

Just curious. I'm by no means a manufacturing expert, but in my job with a high tech company focused on the Internet of Things, I deal with companies that have or are manufacturers. Last year I was in a steel cutting plant - fascinating stuff we are trying to IoT-enable. Was super cool to watch the machines, the supply chain in action, the processes. Same with visiting one of the largest carpet manufacturers in the world, in a town that had 74 plants.

Manufacturing is always looking for ways to automate. But as mentioned above, even with automation, new gigs arrive. As they start to leverage the data from IoT within their systems, people are needed to manage that data collection and analysis and how you act upon the insight gleaned, for instance. That actionable insight in and of itself often leads to new jobs or even business verticals within companies, such as alarm management and monitoring of machines.

Automation doesn't scare me in the least - until the machines can think and they ride around on motorcycles toting shot guns ala Teriminator.

 

[Coach]

While Carrier, Ford, and Fiat-Chrysler are nice wins, they pale in comparison to in size to Microsft, Google, Facebook, and Apple...once the corporate tax code is lowered from 25% ( 2nd highest among major nations ) the flood gates for plants, jobs, R&D and training will open up right here in the USA.

 

[IndySteel]

While Carrier, Ford, and Fiat-Chrysler are nice wins, they pale in comparison to in size to Microsft, Google, Facebook, and Apple...once the corporate tax code is lowered from 25% ( 2nd highest among major nations ) the flood gates for plants, jobs, R&D and training will open up right here in the USA.

The tax rate is 35% right now. Trump is going to lower it to 15%. YUGE! (Hildabitch was going to raise it to 50%, killing off America for good)

 

[SCSteeler4life]

Let's say that notion were true - 100% of it. Are you also saying there's no benefit to having a 100% robotic plant here in the US?

This is the line of work I am in. I work for BMW Mfg. We make more BMW's here in the USA than any other BMW plant worldwide. The robot can't do anything until I tell it too.

 

[21STEELERS21]

My point wasn't that you wouldn't want a fully automated plant in the US, but rather you can't blindly clap for every investment unless
you know what the investment will be used for. Some investments could cost jobs, other investment might create jobs. Someone needs to
be honest with folks, the old labor intensive manufacturing jobs aren't coming back. If you want to do more manufacturing, the country needs
to invest in robotics, get more kids interested and enrolled in STEM degrees, have more vocational training at the high school level and have
a better retraining program for the unemployed. I don't know the latest statistic, but last I remember is China was graduating 5 times the number
of engineers as the US. Manufacturing in the future will be dominated by the countries with the engineers, computer programmers, robotic
technicians, etc... to run the new age plants. It's kind of dumb of the US to not have a path to citizenship for any engineer that graduates from a US
university rather than sending them home to compete against us.

 

[ark steel]

My point wasn't that you wouldn't want a fully automated plant in the US, but rather you can't blindly clap for every investment unless
you know what the investment will be used for. Some investments could cost jobs, other investment might create jobs. Someone needs to
be honest with folks, the old labor intensive manufacturing jobs aren't coming back. If you want to do more manufacturing, the country needs
to invest in robotics, get more kids interested and enrolled in STEM degrees, have more vocational training at the high school level and have
a better retraining program for the unemployed. I don't know the latest statistic, but last I remember is China was graduating 5 times the number
of engineers as the US. Manufacturing in the future will be dominated by the countries with the engineers, computer programmers, robotic
technicians, etc... to run the new age plants. It's kind of dumb of the US to not have a path to citizenship for any engineer that graduates from a US
university rather than sending them home to compete against us.

The reason they are graduating more engineers may have something to do with the fact that our liberal education system spends more time worrying about giving kid's safe spaces and telling them they should be able to do whatever they want and the gubmint will take care of them if they don't make enough money.

In china, The ones that don't make it, end up in the sweat shops. they are, probably, not worried about testing those poor kids in the sweatshops or anything else with regard to those kids.

 

[Coach]

The tax rate is 35% right now. Trump is going to lower it to 15%. YUGE! (Hildabitch was going to raise it to 50%, killing off America for good)

Taxable income ($) Tax rate for coperations:

0 to 50,000 15%

50,000 to 75,000 $7,500 + 25% Of the amount over 50,000

75,000 to 100,000 $13,750 + 34% Of the amount over 75,000

100,000 to 335,000 $22,250 + 39% Of the amount over 100,000

335,000 to 10,000,000 $113,900 + 34% Of the amount over 335,000

10,000,000 to 15,000,000 $3,400,000 + 35% Of the amount over 10,000,000

15,000,000 to 18,333,333 $5,150,000 + 38% Of the amount over 15,000,000

18,333,333 and up 35%



15% for all will he huge. More dividends, more building, more training, and more jobs...HERE.

 

[Troglodyte]

15% for all will he huge. More dividends, more building, more training, and more jobs...HERE.

That's great except you forgot two "mores"... they both start with "D".

 

[Roy92040]

I'm convinced


Sent from my iPad using Steeler Nation mobile app

 

[21STEELERS21]

http://www.fa-mag.com/news/older-americans-are-retiring-in-droves-30741.html

The dirty little secret that nobody talks about is that the financial crisis delayed many baby boomers from retiring and
now they are retiring in droves. This along with an unemployment rate at 4.7% means that the current unemployed
need to fill these opening positions and there isn't much room for growth, unless we can use technology to greatly
improve productivity or we have a liberal immigration policy to increase our labor force.

Smartest policy any President could enact would make any graduate of a US University, green card eligible.
Lower taxes does a business no good if they don't have a labor force available and educated for growth.

 

[Tim Steelersfan]

My point wasn't that you wouldn't want a fully automated plant in the US, but rather you can't blindly clap for every investment unless
you know what the investment will be used for. Some investments could cost jobs, other investment might create jobs. Someone needs to
be honest with folks, the old labor intensive manufacturing jobs aren't coming back. If you want to do more manufacturing, the country needs
to invest in robotics, get more kids interested and enrolled in STEM degrees, have more vocational training at the high school level and have
a better retraining program for the unemployed. I don't know the latest statistic, but last I remember is China was graduating 5 times the number
of engineers as the US. Manufacturing in the future will be dominated by the countries with the engineers, computer programmers, robotic
technicians, etc... to run the new age plants. It's kind of dumb of the US to not have a path to citizenship for any engineer that graduates from a US
university rather than sending them home to compete against us.

No, but you can blindly clap for anything - literally anything - that Obama does. But when, in just a month, 3 major manufacturing companies who'd planned to move factories overseas decide to stay in the USA citing Trump as at least a partial reason - you cannot applaud. Instead you attempt to lecture us (ignorantly so) about how this good news may not really be good news, because Trump.

 

[Superman]

http://www.fa-mag.com/news/older-americans-are-retiring-in-droves-30741.html

The dirty little secret that nobody talks about is that the financial crisis delayed many baby boomers from retiring and
now they are retiring in droves. This along with an unemployment rate at 4.7% means that the current unemployed
need to fill these opening positions and there isn't much room for growth, unless we can use technology to greatly
improve productivity or we have a liberal immigration policy to increase our labor force.

Smartest policy any President could enact would make any graduate of a US University, green card eligible.
Lower taxes does a business no good if they don't have a labor force available and educated for growth.

and another dirty little secret is that a portion of those same baby boomers were also late to the party to create offspring. Guess the age of those offspring. Guess whose health insurance policies those precious snowflakes are still piggy backing on. guess.