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Path to playoffs..

It's just math.

If we have a 55% chance to win tonight. Then we have 45% chance of winning in Baltimore. And Indy has a 95% chance of winning next week.

That's just .55 * .45 * .05 = 1.24%
 
madinsomniac said:
Yes… the chargers play the raiders so as long as tgey don’t tie we would be ahead of one and behind the other

The colts would drop behind us with a loss to the brutally bad Jags

Here is what’s going to happen

Scenario 1… we lose to the Browns, beat tge Ravens and the colts lose to the jags and we miss by one loss

Scenario 2 we beat the Browns and tge colts lose, but we blow it to the Ravens so we miss by one loss

Scenario 3 we beat both the Ravens and Browns but the colts win so it’s irrelevant…

What isn’t going to happen is we lose out and get the best draft pick we can
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Scenario one isn’t happening… we are down to two and three
 
madinsomniac said:
Scenario one isn’t happening… we are down to two and three
Click to expand...
Scenario 4: We beat Ravens, Colts lose, but Chargers and Raiders tie and they both get in. Colts and Steelers eliminated.
 
Now Football Outsiders has us up to 4.5%.

I think the whole thing boils down to only our game and Indianapolis' game, correct? There is a chance that if the Colts lose and the Raiders/Chargers tie, both of them get in ahead of the Steelers. Steelers are actually last in any event of 9-7-1 tiebreakers.

Right now the Colts are -15.5 favorites
Steelers are +4.0 point underdogs.
 
deljzc said:
Now Football Outsiders has us up to 4.5%.

I think the whole thing boils down to only our game and Indianapolis' game, correct? There is a chance that if the Colts lose and the Raiders/Chargers tie, both of them get in ahead of the Steelers. Steelers are actually last in any event of 9-7-1 tiebreakers.

Right now the Colts are -15.5 favorites
Steelers are +4.0 point underdogs.
Click to expand...
I believe Bills were 16pt favorites in their loss to Jaguars.
 
deljzc said:
Now Football Outsiders has us up to 4.5%.

I think the whole thing boils down to only our game and Indianapolis' game, correct? There is a chance that if the Colts lose and the Raiders/Chargers tie, both of them get in ahead of the Steelers. Steelers are actually last in any event of 9-7-1 tiebreakers.

Right now the Colts are -15.5 favorites
Steelers are +4.0 point underdogs.
Click to expand...

With last night's win, I think we clobber the Rats. So if that happens, we just need the Colts to lose correct? (And no tie in the Raiders/Chargers) That's what I kept hearing but it's confusing.
 
jiminoh said:
With last night's win, I think we clobber the Rats. So if that happens, we just need the Colts to lose correct? (And no tie in the Raiders/Chargers) That's what I kept hearing but it's confusing.
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That's correct. I think the chances of Raiders and Chargers tying is more likely than Jags winning.
 
mdk2 said:
That's correct. I think the chances of Raiders and Chargers tying is more likely than Jags winning.
Click to expand...

Okay, thanks for clearing up my confusion. It's a long shot, but it can happen like Detroit and Arizona.
 
What incentive is there for the Jags to win???? They have the top pick in the draft and if they win it goes to Detroit. There is zero chance they play to win that game. First overall pick in a draft carries way too much value than a few hours of glory over winning a meaningless game....it actually hurts their team.
 
Turd Ferguson said:
What incentive is there for the Jags to win???? They have the top pick in the draft and if they win it goes to Detroit. There is zero chance they play to win that game. First overall pick in a draft carries way too much value than a few hours of glory over winning a meaningless game....it actually hurts their team.
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Is there a clear cut #1 pick this year? From what Ive seen you have 2 pretty equal edge rushers, a CB, S, and an OT. The Lions play the pack and the Packers have the #1 seed locked up. I could see GB resting a lot of people and the Lions have played alot of games close. I dont think Jax or Det will purposefully tank both will pretty much get who they want. With that being said Jax is just a horrible team who scored the least amount of points, gave up the most, and their best offensive player is on IR. Indy would have to do an all-time choke job to lose, but like the say any given Sunday
 
jitter77 said:
Is there a clear cut #1 pick this year? From what Ive seen you have 2 pretty equal edge rushers, a CB, S, and an OT. The Lions play the pack and the Packers have the #1 seed locked up. I could see GB resting a lot of people and the Lions have played alot of games close. I dont think Jax or Det will purposefully tank both will pretty much get who they want. With that being said Jax is just a horrible team who scored the least amount of points, gave up the most, and their best offensive player is on IR. Indy would have to do an all-time choke job to lose, but like the say any given Sunday
Click to expand...
Correct plus the players don’t really care about tanking
The Jets beat The Rams on the penultimate week last year and lost the #1
 
jitter77 said:
Is there a clear cut #1 pick this year? From what Ive seen you have 2 pretty equal edge rushers, a CB, S, and an OT. The Lions play the pack and the Packers have the #1 seed locked up. I could see GB resting a lot of people and the Lions have played alot of games close. I dont think Jax or Det will purposefully tank both will pretty much get who they want. With that being said Jax is just a horrible team who scored the least amount of points, gave up the most, and their best offensive player is on IR. Indy would have to do an all-time choke job to lose, but like the say any given Sunday
Click to expand...
This year there isn't any clear-cut #1 gotta-have-it pick.
 
I'm thinking we lose to the Ratbirds and the Jags lose.
Do the Ratbirds need to win or doesn't it matter to them for the playoffs?
Regardless, the Tomlin nut-huggers will hold a ticker tape parade down Grant Street to celebrate Another Non-Losing Season.
 
Ron Burgundy said:
I'm thinking we lose to the Ratbirds and the Jags lose.
Do the Ratbirds need to win or doesn't it matter to them for the playoffs?
Regardless, the Tomlin nut-huggers will hold a ticker tape parade down Grant Street to celebrate Another Non-Losing Season.
Click to expand...
I thought I read where the Rats are out of the playoff race
 
Ron Burgundy said:
I'm thinking we lose to the Ratbirds and the Jags lose.
Do the Ratbirds need to win or doesn't it matter to them for the playoffs?
Regardless, the Tomlin nut-huggers will hold a ticker tape parade down Grant Street to celebrate Another Non-Losing Season.
Click to expand...
Rats chance

1) Ravens beat Steelers
2) Jags beat Colts
3) Pats beat Dolphins
4) Raiders beat Chargers
 
Pittsburgh Charlie said:
Supposed to be 80 degrees in Jax Sunday
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Maybe Jax will wear their away (light colored) Jerseys while they make the Colts wear their dark home jerseys...........

Could help you know.......





Salute the nation
 
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JMM said:
350.png
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No
 
madinsomniac said:
With how he performs against us id say thats more of an indicator that he is out….
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I'm hoping he plays as that increases TJ WATT's chances of setting a well deserved new NFL record.




Salute the nation
 
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